Pancake Bear

Likely W/L records in the AL West in 2020

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So, we’ve been talking about the Angels record a lot in 2020. I’ve been thinking about how good the Astros are likely to be in 2020. And as that line goes, it leads to the other teams in the division as well. 

Houston won 107 games in 2019. That’s not happening again. They won 103 and 101 the two previous seasons, but they were cheating. They also no longer have prime Verlander or Keuchel, and Cole is gone. They’ve lost Hinch. Other teams in the West are improving. They’ve also got a target on their backs. Teams will be keyed up to play them. I don’t think the 2020 Astros win more than 95 games. 90 feels very possible to me.

Seattle, does anything change for them in 2020? Do they go full rebuild and tank or make some effort at competing? I can’t see them winning more than 70 games, regardless. 

Oakland somehow always manages to exceed my expectations, and a lot of their success is rooted in their young players. I’m hesitant to downgrade them much. I think they could win the division.

The Rangers felt like overperformers last year. It’ll be interesting to see how they end up in 2020, especially if they get Arenado. Either way, I don’t see them getting over .500 this season.

Anyone else more familiar with teams like Oakland want to take a crack at this?

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5 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I think the Astros are still the favorites, followed by the A's. The Angels and Rangers are probably even.

Every team* in the AL West has a shot at contending.

 

 

 

 

*but the Mariners.

How do you figure the Angels and Rangers are even? Either you’re really high on the Rangers or really low on the Angels. 

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9 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

How do you figure the Angels and Rangers are even? Either you’re really high on the Rangers or really low on the Angels. 

Based on last year's standings. The Rangers haven't really gotten worse, and the Angels have gotten better, but it's still too soon to say how much they've gotten better.

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I honestly think the Angels will perform better than expected and the Astros will really struggle. 
It's very crazy to say this, I know, but if the Angels can swing a trade for a solid ace or even a #2 starter then I think there suddenly becomes a chance at the division. 

I think the Astros will struggle more than we think and that the Angels will step it up. I could become an interesting season. 

Astros, Athletics and Angels will battle in the 90-95 win category. 

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Astros - Their win total will decrease. 107 games isn't sustainable typically. An aging top heavy pitching staff, no financial wiggle room for additions, new manager, no more cheating hopefully, no more Cole. But they have a couple of really good young SP. 

Prediction: 90-95 wins.

A's - The offense figures to be about the same, and the pitching staff will get Montas back after suspension and has a couple of high end arms in Puk and Lazardo. They won 97 games, but that was while beating up a pretty useless Angels, Rangers and Mariners team in their division.

Prediction: 90-95 wins.

Rangers - They've been busy this winter. But they're losing Pence from the looks of things and while Mazara wasn't great, they lost him too. Still, getting Gibson and Kluber should help them out. They overperformed their way to 84 wins, and now, I think that's legitimately what they are.

Prediction: 80-85 wins.

Mariners - F Dipoto. F him right in his stupid A. 

Prediction: 60-65 wins.

Angels - Simply having enough pitchers to endure the onslaught of injuries that have headed their way would be a minor miracle. That sort of luck can't possible continue, right? I've been saying that for 4 years now though. Anyway, IF they are healthy, the offense is probably the third best in the league, top 5 in baseball. The pitching improves by the additions of Ohtani, Bundy and Teheran. The younger guys like Canning and Sandoval will get better. Eppler Bullpens are always inexpensive and solid. They still lack quality at the front and the middle of the rotation though. So unless they add another quality starter, they aren't looking as good as they should be.

Prediction: 85-90 wins. 

(If they trade for a mid or top rotation starter, I can see them going up into the 90-95 win range.

Exact Prediction (as of right now)

Astros - 94 wins. Division title.

A's - 91 wins. Wild Card 2

Angels - 90 wins. Contenders.

Rangers - 85 wins. Missed the playoffs.

Mariners - F Dipoto. They're a joke.

 

Edited by Second Base

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I am bullish on the A's. They won 97 games each of the last two seasons. I do not see them losing less this season. Their offense will again be good. If Montas does not get suspended again for cheating, Manaea continues to be damn good, and Puk and Luzardo are up for the whole season, the rotation will be very good.

Their bullpen took a major step back in 2019 after being great in 2018. They blew 31 saves, tied with Boston for worst in baseball. (Lou Trivino, in particular, went from an ERA+ of 143 in '18 to 82 in '19.) If the bullpen bounces back, this is a complete team and I would not be surprised to see them win 100+ games. 

Oakland traded away every asset for prospects and finished in last place from '15-'17. (Of course, they're Oakland, so they escaped being labeled as tankers the way the Chicago Cubs and Houston were.) They saw the rewards of their tanking the last two seasons and I believe 2020 will be their peak.

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24 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

Astros: (98-64)

A's: (95-67)

Rangers: (88-74)

Angels: (85-77)

Mariners: (62-100)

That’s completely unacceptable. If we only win 85 games next year and come in 4th AND waste another year of Trouts prime, Eppler has to go.

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Replacement level is approximately 48-114. According to Fangraphs, current projected WAR:

Astros 54.9

Athletics 43.2

Angels 42.9

Rangers 30.2

Mariners 21.6

Translated to records:

Astros 103-59

Athletics 91-71

Angels 91-71

Rangers 78-84

Mariners 70-92

 

That seems overly bullish on the Astros and bearish on the Rangers, but I do think the order is about right in terms of favorites on paper.

 

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I haven't read the other responses here but the Astros will still be very competitive, the Athletics are deceptively strong in both starting pitching and offensive lineup, the Rangers have improved, particularly in their rotation, and the Mariners are still rebuilding but could reenter the fight more aggressively in 2021. The Angels of course have improved too. I see a 4-way dogfight that could fluctuate all season unless one team goes on a mean winning streak.

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Scenario A:   The Astros aging aces stay healthy and the team overcomes the scandal and loss of their GM and Manager.  Angels just improve incrementally.

Astros:   98 wins

A's:   94 wins

Angels:  87 wins

Rangers:  87 wins

Mariners:  Who cares?

 

Scenario B:   Adell is beast in rookie year, and other improvements see the Angels take off like a rocket.    Age and/or injury catches up with one or both of the Astros aging aces...and they have trouble overcoming shame and managerial changes.

Angels 95 Wins

A's  94 Wins  

Astros:  92 Wins 

Rangers 90 Wins

Mariners:  Who cares?

 

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18 hours ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Scenario A:   The Astros aging aces stay healthy and the team overcomes the scandal and loss of their GM and Manager.  Angels just improve incrementally.

Astros:   98 wins

A's:   94 wins

Angels:  87 wins

Rangers:  87 wins

Mariners:  Who cares?

 

Scenario B:   Adell is beast in rookie year, and other improvements see the Angels take off like a rocket.    Age and/or injury catches up with one or both of the Astros aging aces...and they have trouble overcoming shame and managerial changes.

Angels 95 Wins

A's  94 Wins  

Astros:  92 Wins 

Rangers 90 Wins

Mariners:  Who cares?

 

In the 3 divisions era (1994-present), has there ever been one division with FOUR 90+ wins teams?

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I'd like to change my previous prediction, in light of new evidence. It's pretty bold too.

Oakland - 94 wins and the division title. 

Angels - 90 wins and Wild Card 2. 

Astros - 87 wins

Rangers - 86 wins

Dipotos - Dipoto.

Edited by Second Base

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11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'd like to change my previous prediction, in light of new evidence. It's pretty bold too.

Oakland - 94 wins and the division title. 

Angels - 90 wins and Wild Card 2. 

Astros - 87 wins

Rangers - 86 wins

Dipotos - Dipoto.

It took 96 wins to get the second Wild Card last season; 97 the year before. 90 seems low with how many good teams I am expecting there to be. 

Of course it only took 85 wins in 2017, so you never know. 

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On 1/14/2020 at 11:39 AM, Angel Oracle said:

In the 3 divisions era (1994-present), has there ever been one division with FOUR 90+ wins teams?

Just noticed this from four days ago....     

To answer your question...well, uhm....no.   The closest I saw was the 2008 NL Central, which had six teams....the fourth place Cards had 86 wins.     So, maybe my prediction isn't giving enough consideration to the limited amount of wins to be had.   I revise my best-case scenario to:

 

Angels  95 Wins

A's:  92 wins

Rangers:  88 wins  

Astros:  88 wins

Mariners:   74 wins  (but, still, who cares?)

 

If my original prediction was right, then I'm blaming you  @Angel Oracle    

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On 1/13/2020 at 2:33 PM, Pancake Bear said:

Oakland somehow always manages to exceed my expectations, and a lot of their success is rooted in their young players. I’m hesitant to downgrade them much. I think they could win the division.

This ^^^^^^^

The A’s have won 97 games in back to back seasons. They lost 6 games on the road in Houston in 2019 and 8 more in Houston in 2018. They could win 97 - 101 games and the division this season. 

A’s 99 wins

Astros 92 wins

Angels 87 wins

Rangers 75 wins

Mariners 71 wins

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On 1/14/2020 at 11:39 AM, Angel Oracle said:

In the 3 divisions era (1994-present), has there ever been one division with FOUR 90+ wins teams?

Every year there’s at least one division trying for it. Generally at least one of the teams turns into a pumpkin. My pick would be the Rangers. I see nothing that suggests that team should be competitive. 

 

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