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tdawg87

This is a 92 win team.

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16 hours ago, Dochalo said:

On most days, my guess is that our 1-5 will be La Stella, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Upton.  Followed by Goodwin, Simmons, Castro and Fletcher.  There are no black holes in that.  No breaks if Goodwin and Simmons do what they've done in the past.  Plus, Adell or Marsh are on the way.  You've even got Rengifo and Thaiss who could step up their game in 2020.  Albert can be a PHer and come up with RISP.  

I still think Pujols, not La Stella, will be our primary 1B coming out of ST.

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21 minutes ago, RBM said:

I still think Pujols, not La Stella, will be our primary 1B coming out of ST.

Yep, and as ive said in the past those who want to write him out of the lineup, just stop, youre dreaming.   Until someone forcibly takes that job, its just not happening.
Ill add to that i think its possible LaStella isnt even on the roster opening day having been traded. 

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18 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They had two in the past three seasons, and one was a guy who had a grade 1 sprain before he signed. 
 

EDIT: 3. Forgot JC Ramírez. 

Richards 2018

Ohtani 2018

Middleton 2018

Ramirez 2018

Tropeano 2017

Wood 2018

Lamb 2018

6 in 2018 alone. One in 2017.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Richards 2018

Ohtani 2018

Middleton 2018

Ramirez 2018

Tropeano 2017

Wood 2018

Lamb 2018

6 in 2018 alone. One in 2017.

 

 

OK, I thought Richards was earlier. And Tropeano was 2016. And you can't even really count Lamb and Wood. Both had previous TJs and barely pitched for the Angels.

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22 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Trout: Trout missed the final month of the year. I think it's safe to say if he played that final month, he would have been worth 1 more win. So that's a +1. 

- Agreed

Upton: Upton is a big key to the success of the team in 2020. Upton was injured and missed more than half the year. He was worth -0.2 fWAR. IF he's healthy, he's one of the most consistent players in baseball. However, I'm going to be conservative here and say he only adds 2 wins over 2019. A 1.8 WAR is quite low for him based on his career numbers but I don't want to be entirely unrealistic. So +2.

- 3 WAR would be a pretty good season for Upton. But I have serious doubt he will remain healthy. There's nothing other than rest that he's done to fix this leg issue. The fact that Marsh hasn't been traded yet makes it all the more likely he'll break into the lineup at some point. So rather than +2, I'm going to go with +1.

Simmons: Simmons missed significant time due to injuries and he also saw his offensive numbers drop significantly. I could go one of two was here: Either he has one of the best years of his career playing for a contract, or he stays mostly healthy but continues to decline with the bat. For the sake of being unbiased, I'm going to go with the latter. I think he'll play 20-30 more games, but his hitting will stay the same. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2019, so I'm giving him 1 more win for 2020. So +1

- Agreed. Pretty fair.

Ohtani: Obviously missed time and didn't throw a single pitch. His offense was very good, but not as good as 2018. Getting him back on the mound will be great, but there's no telling what we're going to get. He was worth 1.8 fWAR in 2019, so I'm going to have him match his rookie year of 2.8. So +1.

- Being conservative is smart, but in this case, I'm going to let the fan boy out and say he's with 5 WAR. My justification is that he was hitting with a knee issue and is only going to get better with more reps at the plate. He'll be with 2 wins at the plate and 3 on the mound. 

(This means I'm 3 wins higher than your estimate so far)

Heaney: His health is obviously the biggest issue. I think he will pitch better, but I don't think he eclipses 150 innings. Ultimately I see another win at best. +1

- Agreed. 

Canning: I'm expecting big things from Canning this year, but I'm going to hold those expectations back here. I think he will pitch more, but he may not hit more than 150 innings. So like Heaney, a win at best over 2019. +1

- I'm a bit more optimistic, and am going to go with +2.

(Now I'm 4 wins about your estimate)

The bullpen: Getting Middleton back is huge. Last year, our pen was worth 2.5 WAR, which was good for 16th in MLB and 9th in the AL. I think the pen could improve a lot, but I'm going to be conservative and add 1 win, which in 2019 would have made us 8th in the AL. +1

- Bullpens are difficult to too office, do I'll just agree.

The young starters: I'm talking our main depth here. Sandoval, Barria, Suarez, and Peters. Let's face it, most, if not all of these guys will see innings in 2020. In 2019 they were worth -1.5 WAR. It was bad. They will improve. This is an easy +1.

- If the opportunity is there, yes, +1.

Right field: Losing Kole sucks, but he was only worth 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin was worth 1.9 WAR. I think between him and Adell, it will be a wash. +0

- That's what I'm seeing too.

Pujols, Stassi, La Stella, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss: I put these all together because I don't see much change one way or another with them individually. Together, they were worth 5.7 WAR. I see Fletcher staying about the same, maybe adding a bit. Pujols might lose a bit but nothing significant. I think La Stella goes down, Rengifo and Thaiss go up. Ward stays about the same. Stassi is the make-or-break here, which is hilarious. He was just awful in 2019, being worth -0.3 WAR in just 147 PA's. I'm going to assume he is better than that and add a win. A 0.3 WAR from Stassi is not a huge expectation. +1.

- I'm going with +0. The ball was juiced last year. Without the juiced ball, I'm not sure La Stella's gains are repeatable. Pujols is only going to get worse too. But this will be offset by Fletcher and Thaiss getting better. 

(3 wins above yours)

Rendon: Rendon was worth 7 WAR in 2019, 6.2 in 2018, and 6.7 in 2017. I think 6 wins is a safe prediction. +6

- Not buying it. Not for a second. Fletcher and La Stella played 3B mostly last year and were with 3 WAR. Rendon switching leagues, I think he'll be with 5 WAR, slightly less than last year. So I'm going to go with +2. Rendon is great, but he wasn't the best place to upgrade. 

(Now I'm two under your projection)

Bundy: 2.5 WAR in 2019, 1.0 WAR in 2018, 2.8 in 2017. The average of those 3 years is 2.1. So I'll say +2

- Works for me.

Teheran: 1.6 WAR in 2019. I'll go with 1.0. +1

- I buy it. 

Castro: 1.6 WAR in 2019 and was a perennial 2+ WAR catcher for Houston. I'll go conservative again and say +1.

- Conservative is probably the most accurate here. +1. 

So 82+10 =92. 

- 90 wins for me. If they're healthy. Big IF.

 

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Without diving into all of the metrics....

We are replacing Cahill, Harvery, Skaggs (RIP), Barria, Sandoval, anyone with 1/2 of an arm with Bundy, Teheran and Ohtani.  That alone is a nice boast.

We are replacing our 3B clutter from last year (.243/.306/.345/.651 13 HR's and 58 RBI's) with Rendon.  

We will see some fall off in RF, but hopefully some better production from Upton will help to off set it.

With these moves alone, I would imagine we are at least 10 and closer to 15 wins better than last year.  

If we finish around 88-92 wins this year...I think I would be pretty happy.  We may not make the postseason, but we can be playing some meaningful September games.

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9 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Calhoun batted .232 with a .325 obp. That’s not hard to replace.

He also had 33 HR's, 74 RBI and 92 Runs scored with a war of 2.3

I may stand corrected...just looked up Goodwing who was a 2.1 WAR, 109 OPS+ vs Kole's 108 OPS+

Defense will be the difference.

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14 minutes ago, HaloNArizona said:

He also had 33 HR's, 74 RBI and 92 Runs scored with a war of 2.3

I may stand corrected...just looked up Goodwing who was a 2.1 WAR, 109 OPS+ vs Kole's 108 OPS+

Defense will be the difference.

0 DRS last year after 7 in 2018. Baseball Savant also had him at a 0 on outfield Outs Above Average. Goodwin was a -1 on DRS, but a +5 on Outs Above Average. Bref also rates Goodwin slightly over Calhoun defensively in 2019. I know that isn’t a popular sentiment for Angels fans, and I’m aware that defensive analytics are limited, however there is no statistical basis at any rate for saying Goodwin is worse defensively than Calhoun.

Also, Goodwin will likely be replaced part time by Fletcher when they want La Stella to playa bit at 2B, and then Adell eventually.

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2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Why?  He’s had one year of injuries in the last decade. 

Just seeing the lack of range in 2018 compared to years prior, it seems evident that something was bothering him in the lower half, because the decrease in sprinting speed, at least as I perceived it via video is pretty drastic. 2019 rolls around and he has turf toe and knee injuries, and he was even slower. 

It just doesn't seem to me that Upton's knees are going to age well. Vladdy's were gone at a similar age, though I think his was made worse by the Montreal turf. If Upton was younger, like 25, I could see rest being enough. But heading into his age 32 season.... I'm not optimistic.

I think he will hit when he is healthy though.

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21 hours ago, floplag said:

Yep, and as ive said in the past those who want to write him out of the lineup, just stop, youre dreaming.   Until someone forcibly takes that job, its just not happening.
Ill add to that i think its possible LaStella isnt even on the roster opening day having been traded. 

No one will be given a real opportunity to take his position. Albert will be in the Opening Day lineup at 1B or DH no matter what. 

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Just seeing the lack of range in 2018 compared to years prior, it seems evident that something was bothering him in the lower half, because the decrease in sprinting speed, at least as I perceived it via video is pretty drastic. 2019 rolls around and he has turf toe and knee injuries, and he was even slower. 

It just doesn't seem to me that Upton's knees are going to age well. Vladdy's were gone at a similar age, though I think his was made worse by the Montreal turf. If Upton was younger, like 25, I could see rest being enough. But heading into his age 32 season.... I'm not optimistic.

I think he will hit when he is healthy though.

In 2018 he made the most out of range outs for any left fielder, so the range was still there.  You could be right we could be witnessing a severe decline, I just need to see more than one season of injury before I see what you’re seeing. 

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Just seeing the lack of range in 2018 compared to years prior, it seems evident that something was bothering him in the lower half, because the decrease in sprinting speed, at least as I perceived it via video is pretty drastic. 2019 rolls around and he has turf toe and knee injuries, and he was even slower. 

It just doesn't seem to me that Upton's knees are going to age well. Vladdy's were gone at a similar age, though I think his was made worse by the Montreal turf. If Upton was younger, like 25, I could see rest being enough. But heading into his age 32 season.... I'm not optimistic.

I think he will hit when he is healthy though.

I'll respect your opinion and you may very well be right but I want to point out that Upton was still on pace for 30 HR and 100 RBI last year. He suffered from the lowest BABIP of his career. 

If he's not healthy then he's not healthy, but that's a difficult thing to predict. If you're implying that he wasn't fully healthy in 2018 then he still matched his career OPS+ and hit 30 homeruns.

I realize his defense will be an issue but I don't think his bat will be.

 

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2 hours ago, RendZone said:

No one will be given a real opportunity to take his position. Albert will be in the Opening Day lineup at 1B or DH no matter what. 

Likely true, would you bench him over a hot spring?  would you bench any long time superstar over hot spring form an unproven player?  No one would, or should.
IF however that happened, that person would be given at bats and a chance as a regular player to prove it wasnt just time spent facing guys tending bar once the season started. 
I believe 100% for example that IF someone like Thaiss has a monster spring, he makes the roster, gets at bats, and is given a chance to take that job.   One way or another Pujols timer is winding down.  The club has to be thinking about options moving forward, even Albert knows that im sure.
He will be our starting 1B/DH until one of 2 things happens, someone else proves they deserve it more, or his time runs out.   To date, no one has done that even though more than a couple have been given a chance to. 

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5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Likely true, would you bench him over a hot spring?  would you bench any long time superstar over hot spring form an unproven player?  No one would, or should.
IF however that happened, that person would be given at bats and a chance as a regular player to prove it wasnt just time spent facing guys tending bar once the season started. 
I believe 100% for example that IF someone like Thaiss has a monster spring, he makes the roster, gets at bats, and is given a chance to take that job.   One way or another Pujols timer is winding down.  The club has to be thinking about options moving forward, even Albert knows that im sure.
He will be our starting 1B/DH until one of 2 things happens, someone else proves they deserve it more, or his time runs out.   To date, no one has done that even though more than a couple have been given a chance to. 

Don’t engage him on this.  Albert will start on opening day.  If he doesn’t start on opening day then he is injured.  Whether or not he gets a bulk share of the starts will depend on how the others on the roster perform.  There is really no chance Albert starts regularly over Ohtani.  Could he start over Thaiss, Walsh and Ward, probably.  Last year when Ohtani was there Ausmus didn’t simply start Albert every game.  

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2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I'll respect your opinion and you may very well be right but I want to point out that Upton was still on pace for 30 HR and 100 RBI last year. He suffered from the lowest BABIP of his career. 

If he's not healthy then he's not healthy, but that's a difficult thing to predict. If you're implying that he wasn't fully healthy in 2018 then he still matched his career OPS+ and hit 30 homeruns.

I realize his defense will be an issue but I don't think his bat will be.

 

And that's what I was saying as well. I think Upton is going to hit, when he is healthy.

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On 1/12/2020 at 11:42 AM, tdawg87 said:

We've had a lot of negativity lately so I felt like putting on the rosy glasses and being a blind superfan for a few minutes. 

Let me preface this by saying I'm not an analytics nerd like some here, so I'm not going to draw up some novel using graphs and spin rates and launch angles. I will however simplify things using fWAR. I want to state I in NO WAY believe WAR equates directly to wins. But I'm doing this anyway.

Now, Fletcher has stated many times before how the majority of improvement comes from within. So I'm going to use WAR to see, realistically how this team (without Rendon, Bundy, Teheran, or Castro) can improve. I will not be using any fangraphs projection systems because fuck you. Again, I'm aware that WAR doesn't quite work this way but it's the simplest way to project things from a fans standpoint and also fuck you.

Anyway, I'm just going to look at the major players and how many "wins" they can add over last year. I won't do this for every reliever.

Trout: Trout missed the final month of the year. I think it's safe to say if he played that final month, he would have been worth 1 more win. So that's a +1.

Upton: Upton is a big key to the success of the team in 2020. Upton was injured and missed more than half the year. He was worth -0.2 fWAR. IF he's healthy, he's one of the most consistent players in baseball. However, I'm going to be conservative here and say he only adds 2 wins over 2019. A 1.8 WAR is quite low for him based on his career numbers but I don't want to be entirely unrealistic. So +2.

Simmons: Simmons missed significant time due to injuries and he also saw his offensive numbers drop significantly. I could go one of two was here: Either he has one of the best years of his career playing for a contract, or he stays mostly healthy but continues to decline with the bat. For the sake of being unbiased, I'm going to go with the latter. I think he'll play 20-30 more games, but his hitting will stay the same. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2019, so I'm giving him 1 more win for 2020. So +1

Ohtani: Obviously missed time and didn't throw a single pitch. His offense was very good, but not as good as 2018. Getting him back on the mound will be great, but there's no telling what we're going to get. He was worth 1.8 fWAR in 2019, so I'm going to have him match his rookie year of 2.8. So +1.

Heaney: His health is obviously the biggest issue. I think he will pitch better, but I don't think he eclipses 150 innings. Ultimately I see another win at best. +1

Canning: I'm expecting big things from Canning this year, but I'm going to hold those expectations back here. I think he will pitch more, but he may not hit more than 150 innings. So like Heaney, a win at best over 2019. +1

The bullpen: Getting Middleton back is huge. Last year, our pen was worth 2.5 WAR, which was good for 16th in MLB and 9th in the AL. I think the pen could improve a lot, but I'm going to be conservative and add 1 win, which in 2019 would have made us 8th in the AL. +1

The young starters: I'm talking our main depth here. Sandoval, Barria, Suarez, and Peters. Let's face it, most, if not all of these guys will see innings in 2020. In 2019 they were worth -1.5 WAR. It was bad. They will improve. This is an easy +1.

Right field: Losing Kole sucks, but he was only worth 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin was worth 1.9 WAR. I think between him and Adell, it will be a wash. +0

Pujols, Stassi, La Stella, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss: I put these all together because I don't see much change one way or another with them individually. Together, they were worth 5.7 WAR. I see Fletcher staying about the same, maybe adding a bit. Pujols might lose a bit but nothing significant. I think La Stella goes down, Rengifo and Thaiss go up. Ward stays about the same. Stassi is the make-or-break here, which is hilarious. He was just awful in 2019, being worth -0.3 WAR in just 147 PA's. I'm going to assume he is better than that and add a win. A 0.3 WAR from Stassi is not a huge expectation. +1.

So the total comes to +10 wins, which brings the current roster minus this year's additions up to 82 wins. You'll notice I've neglected to mention the loss of Skaggs, but I think that's offset by the loss of Cahill and Harvey. I went to Hofstra.

So we're at 82 wins. Now let's factor in our additions this off-season.

Rendon: Rendon was worth 7 WAR in 2019, 6.2 in 2018, and 6.7 in 2017. I think 6 wins is a safe prediction. +6

Bundy: 2.5 WAR in 2019, 1.0 WAR in 2018, 2.8 in 2017. The average of those 3 years is 2.1. So I'll say +2

Teheran: 1.6 WAR in 2019. I'll go with 1.0. +1

Castro: 1.6 WAR in 2019 and was a perennial 2+ WAR catcher for Houston. I'll go conservative again and say +1.

So 82+10 =92. 

Tl:dr I'm a fuckin genious and this team can win 92 games in 2020 even looking at everything conservatively. A few things go our way and we're in the 95+ range. 

Positivity! 

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Great post, @tdawg87

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10 hours ago, RendZone said:

The A’s won 97 games last season while losing 11 games to the sign stealing Astros. Kinda makes the A’s look like a legit 100 win team next season.

Or not because it's baseball.

Nobody thought the A's would win 97 games two years ago and in back to back seasons.

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1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

Or not because it's baseball.

Nobody thought the A's would win 97 games two years ago and in back to back seasons.

This would be a nice poll question, who will have the biggest change in their win total, the Angels or the Astros?  I could easily see the number be very close.  The Astros won 107 games and I could see them be a 92 win team with the talent loss and the distractions.  The Angels won 72 games and they could win close to 90 games.  

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