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tdawg87

This is a 92 win team.

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I think we're close to 90 wins on paper right now.  But the range on either side of that is fairly broad. 

things the team has going for it:

- strong core on offense that should be one of the best units in the league.  
- offensive depth particularly in the IF.  Pretty much every IF position has a solid backup if someone gets hurt.  They can't sustain an injury to Rendon but there are at least solid to above average players as redundancy everywhere else.  In the OF, the same holds true of Trout who just needs to be on the field but I think Adell and Marsh could fill in well for anyone else.   
- likely a solid bullpen.  Not flashy 
- great defense.  
- a strong coaching unit.  

things they don't:

- a mediocre at best starting rotation which will rely on guys who have either been recently injured or not great as well as a bunch of kids with potential.  There should be enough depth to make it work but it could go wrong real fast.  It needs one more solid contributer to really make it a solid middle of the pack unit.  

things that could go right:

- the team doesn't suffer a rash of injuries to key players like Simmons, Upton, Trout, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning etc.  
- La Stella is the same guy he was last year
- Canning turns a corner 
- Thaiss becomes an everyday player and displace Albert's at bats at 1b/DH (in conjunction with La Stella).  
- Rengifo becomes an everyday guy even if he doesn't play everyday which gives Maddon the flexibility to move Fletch around.  Particularly to the OF in case Goodwin, Adell, Marsh and Upton don't perform as expected.  
- Bundy and Teheran perform a little better than expected in an environment conducive to such 
- Adell and Marsh crush AAA and are just waiting ringside for the tag in.  
- Middleton finds his 2018 form and heads on that trajectory.  Buttrey has less innings stress and become elite.  Robles stays the same.  Noe and Cam pretty much hold serve.  One or two of Anderson, Cole, Bard, Keller Markel, and Milner turn a corner and become very good.  Overall, the unit becomes elite and locks down games from the 6th inning.  
- Ward, Walsh, Herm provide solid contributions in short spurts.  
- One of Barria, Suarez or Sandoval turns a corner and becomes a solid mid to back end rotation piece.  
- Andrew Heaney throws 170 innings.  
- Stassi and Castro are not black holes at the plate.  

Things that could go wrong:

- key injuries
- two or less of the above happen

I thing the range of outcomes is anywhere from 81 to 95 wins.  

If all those things happened, we'd be a 95 win team.  Also, throw in there if we are in striking distance you could see a trade for a top of the line pitcher.  Unfortunately, I do not think we are going to bring in an additional arm until Eppler sees how things played out.   I am also curious to see if under completely different management, the wave of tommy john surgeries cease.  

 

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Whatever happens, at least we should be more fun to watch this year.

As it stands I don't believe we're good enough to get a wildcard spot in an the AL, but I think its close.  I wouldn't be surprised if both WCs came from the AL East;  the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all a tier to multiple tiers better than us right now.  Oakland will also be hanging around as always, and the Twins/Indians are good as well.  

That would change with the addition of someone like Gray/Clevinger/etc., but it feels nothing like that is on the horizon.  

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As for as @tdawg87's original post, all of that is reasonable -- and I made a similar post a few weeks back. But the big problem is: will all of that happen? 92 wins is certainly possible, but it requires almost everything going right.

As I've been saying, for me the range of likely outcomes is something like 82-92 wins, with an over/under of 87. They could win more or less, but that would be a surprise:  82-92 wouldn't be suprising. Or to break it down further, with likely scenarios:

Below .500: Another disastrous season. The rotation doesn't hold together, at all. Injuries abound. Upton/Simmons show their age and decline is real. Trout solidifies the view that he is officially injury prone. Young guys disappoint. Etc, etc. Eppler is fired.

81-85 wins: Meh. Solid gains from 2019, but still feels lackluster. Some things go right, some not so much. Overall mixed results. Eppler's job is on the line, but probably given another year to see if he can build upon the trajectory. 

86-89 wins: A good season. The Angels are competitive, but not great. But we get relevant September games, at least early on, and there's a feeling of optimism going into the offseason (except for the usual griping  suspects), even though the team misses the posteason. Eppler keeps his job.

90-92 wins: An excellent year, with an overall feeling of optimism for the team going forward. The team competes almost to the end, although misses the postseason.

93-95 wins: Everything  possible goes right, and  then some. Some surprise breakthroughs and career years. Might make postseason, but it is close at least.

96+ wins: As above, but even more so. Angels make postseason, probably win  division.

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51 minutes ago, tchula said:

   I am also curious to see if under completely different management, the wave of tommy john surgeries cease.  

They had two in the past three seasons, and one was a guy who had a grade 1 sprain before he signed. 
 

EDIT: 3. Forgot JC Ramírez. 

Edited by Jeff Fletcher

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2 hours ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Also, IMHO, once a lineup reaches a certain point, lineup protection becomes real and each batter's effect becomes more than just additive.    With a massive upgrade at 3B, possible contributions by Adell at some point, and the removal of a black hole at catcher, etc.....we could see guys like Trout, Simmons, Upton, etc have great years at the plate.   I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 

I have looked for an article that proves or disproves the above in the past and have yet to find one.  I'm not sure it's as much about individual protection as it is not allowing for breaks through certain parts of your lineup.  I totally agree that there is some sort of additive effect when you can create that where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  

You don't even need a star everywhere.  Just two or three at most and then if the rest of the guys are about average and are capable of being dangerous or having good at bats where they see a ton of pitches, it makes everyone in the lineup a little better.  

Obviously, your main talent will be concentrated toward the top of the order but most good teams have a solid 1-5 but it's that 6-9 where you get the most bang for your buck.  If you can go 6 or 7 deep (ahem!) then it essentially gives the opposing team almost no opportunity to casually give up a base runner.  

On most days, my guess is that our 1-5 will be La Stella, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Upton.  Followed by Goodwin, Simmons, Castro and Fletcher.  There are no black holes in that.  No breaks if Goodwin and Simmons do what they've done in the past.  Plus, Adell or Marsh are on the way.  You've even got Rengifo and Thaiss who could step up their game in 2020.  Albert can be a PHer and come up with RISP.  

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1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They had two in the past three seasons, and one was a guy who had a grade 1 sprain before he signed. 
 

EDIT: 3. Forgot JC Ramírez. 

I am also including Richards and Tropeano. 

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38 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I have looked for an article that proves or disproves the above in the past and have yet to find one.  I'm not sure it's as much about individual protection as it is not allowing for breaks through certain parts of your lineup.  I totally agree that there is some sort of additive effect when you can create that where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  

You don't even need a star everywhere.  Just two or three at most and then if the rest of the guys are about average and are capable of being dangerous or having good at bats where they see a ton of pitches, it makes everyone in the lineup a little better.  

Obviously, your main talent will be concentrated toward the top of the order but most good teams have a solid 1-5 but it's that 6-9 where you get the most bang for your buck.  If you can go 6 or 7 deep (ahem!) then it essentially gives the opposing team almost no opportunity to casually give up a base runner.  

On most days, my guess is that our 1-5 will be La Stella, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Upton.  Followed by Goodwin, Simmons, Castro and Fletcher.  There are no black holes in that.  No breaks if Goodwin and Simmons do what they've done in the past.  Plus, Adell or Marsh are on the way.  You've even got Rengifo and Thaiss who could step up their game in 2020.  Albert can be a PHer and come up with RISP.  

There's also the psychological effect, which is often overlooked, mostly because it is difficult to quantify. There's a huge difference for both Trout and the pitcher knowing that Rendon is on deck (or whatever). Or knowing that, if you're Trout, everything  doesn't rely on you.

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2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They had two in the past three seasons, and one was a guy who had a grade 1 sprain before he signed. 
 

EDIT: 3. Forgot JC Ramírez. 

Unfortunately, we also lost an entire person and that's like a 1,000 Tommy John's, ....Tyler Skaggs RIP.  We need to hope that there isn't residual effects from that, hopefully Madden channels any negativity away from that fact.

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44 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

88-90 wins isn't going to get the second WC, the AL is super top-heavy and I don't see that changing anytime soon.  The last two seasons the second WC had 96 and 97 wins.

While true the AL has seen multiple teams add and likely improve...  There may be fewer have nots.... CWS, Jays, Angels, Rangers all should be less flawed than a year ago.  

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36 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

While true the AL has seen multiple teams add and likely improve...  There may be fewer have nots.... CWS, Jays, Angels, Rangers all should be less flawed than a year ago.  

If the Rangers acquire Arenado, that means four teams competing for a playoff spot in the west. If the Red Sox don’t punt with Betts, that’s 3 in the east. Toronto acquired Ryu - I don’t think they're tanking. Chicago made some big acquisitions. Cleveland and Minnesota still gong for it. 

Who is tanking? Baltimore, probably. Detroit and Kansas City. That’s a lot of teams going for it. Could change the number of wins needed for a wild card spot. Houston will likely be worse also. I expect more parity in the AL overall this season. 

Edit: Forgot the Mariners. They’ll be soft, too. 

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Now that the Astros have to rely on talent instead of cheating, they are not winning 95 games next season. In fact I'm going to say they will be lucky to scratch out 90 because every team is going to want to pull out all stops to kick their ass. Every player on their team is a marked man so pitches are going to be high and tight and tags are going to leave a mark. They may just come apart at the seams which will be a pleasure to watch.

The Mariners will be a welcoming matt for teams to rest their roster against. The Rangers will have a new park but still have guys who can't hit like Odor. Taking away the offensive plus of their little heat sync band box is not going to help them. 

The A's will be less of a pain in the ass because they haven't really had a history of putting three consecutive season together. I expect them to slide off into obscurity because, as Tdawg so aptly put it, fuck you. 

The Angels could mop up the flotsam in their division and the Astros could just bite the toilet because of being outed and penalized so, yes, the Angels could win 90 games or more. 

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I have looked for an article that proves or disproves the above in the past and have yet to find one.  I'm not sure it's as much about individual protection as it is not allowing for breaks through certain parts of your lineup.  I totally agree that there is some sort of additive effect when you can create that where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  

You don't even need a star everywhere.  Just two or three at most and then if the rest of the guys are about average and are capable of being dangerous or having good at bats where they see a ton of pitches, it makes everyone in the lineup a little better.  

Obviously, your main talent will be concentrated toward the top of the order but most good teams have a solid 1-5 but it's that 6-9 where you get the most bang for your buck.  If you can go 6 or 7 deep (ahem!) then it essentially gives the opposing team almost no opportunity to casually give up a base runner.  

On most days, my guess is that our 1-5 will be La Stella, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Upton.  Followed by Goodwin, Simmons, Castro and Fletcher.  There are no black holes in that.  No breaks if Goodwin and Simmons do what they've done in the past.  Plus, Adell or Marsh are on the way.  You've even got Rengifo and Thaiss who could step up their game in 2020.  Albert can be a PHer and come up with RISP.  

The most significant factor can be proven with a simple logical exercise.

When is a hit most valuable? When the bases are loaded.

When is a baserunner most valuable? When the next batter hits a homerun.

When is a triple least valuable? With 2 outs and the pitchers spot on deck.

Offense is made more valuable with the addition of more offense. It has a positive multiplier effect that weighs stronger on lower value events (like walks and singles) than higher value ones (like homeruns). So a pitcher is increasingly unwise to allow any positive outcomes the stronger the lineup gets.

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9 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

We've had a lot of negativity lately so I felt like putting on the rosy glasses and being a blind superfan for a few minutes. 

Let me preface this by saying I'm not an analytics nerd like some here, so I'm not going to draw up some novel using graphs and spin rates and launch angles. I will however simplify things using fWAR. I want to state I in NO WAY believe WAR equates directly to wins. But I'm doing this anyway.

Now, Fletcher has stated many times before how the majority of improvement comes from within. So I'm going to use WAR to see, realistically how this team (without Rendon, Bundy, Teheran, or Castro) can improve. I will not be using any fangraphs projection systems because fuck you. Again, I'm aware that WAR doesn't quite work this way but it's the simplest way to project things from a fans standpoint and also fuck you.

Anyway, I'm just going to look at the major players and how many "wins" they can add over last year. I won't do this for every reliever.

Trout: Trout missed the final month of the year. I think it's safe to say if he played that final month, he would have been worth 1 more win. So that's a +1.

Upton: Upton is a big key to the success of the team in 2020. Upton was injured and missed more than half the year. He was worth -0.2 fWAR. IF he's healthy, he's one of the most consistent players in baseball. However, I'm going to be conservative here and say he only adds 2 wins over 2019. A 1.8 WAR is quite low for him based on his career numbers but I don't want to be entirely unrealistic. So +2.

Simmons: Simmons missed significant time due to injuries and he also saw his offensive numbers drop significantly. I could go one of two was here: Either he has one of the best years of his career playing for a contract, or he stays mostly healthy but continues to decline with the bat. For the sake of being unbiased, I'm going to go with the latter. I think he'll play 20-30 more games, but his hitting will stay the same. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2019, so I'm giving him 1 more win for 2020. So +1

Ohtani: Obviously missed time and didn't throw a single pitch. His offense was very good, but not as good as 2018. Getting him back on the mound will be great, but there's no telling what we're going to get. He was worth 1.8 fWAR in 2019, so I'm going to have him match his rookie year of 2.8. So +1.

Heaney: His health is obviously the biggest issue. I think he will pitch better, but I don't think he eclipses 150 innings. Ultimately I see another win at best. +1

Canning: I'm expecting big things from Canning this year, but I'm going to hold those expectations back here. I think he will pitch more, but he may not hit more than 150 innings. So like Heaney, a win at best over 2019. +1

The bullpen: Getting Middleton back is huge. Last year, our pen was worth 2.5 WAR, which was good for 16th in MLB and 9th in the AL. I think the pen could improve a lot, but I'm going to be conservative and add 1 win, which in 2019 would have made us 8th in the AL. +1

The young starters: I'm talking our main depth here. Sandoval, Barria, Suarez, and Peters. Let's face it, most, if not all of these guys will see innings in 2020. In 2019 they were worth -1.5 WAR. It was bad. They will improve. This is an easy +1.

Right field: Losing Kole sucks, but he was only worth 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin was worth 1.9 WAR. I think between him and Adell, it will be a wash. +0

Pujols, Stassi, La Stella, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss: I put these all together because I don't see much change one way or another with them individually. Together, they were worth 5.7 WAR. I see Fletcher staying about the same, maybe adding a bit. Pujols might lose a bit but nothing significant. I think La Stella goes down, Rengifo and Thaiss go up. Ward stays about the same. Stassi is the make-or-break here, which is hilarious. He was just awful in 2019, being worth -0.3 WAR in just 147 PA's. I'm going to assume he is better than that and add a win. A 0.3 WAR from Stassi is not a huge expectation. +1.

So the total comes to +10 wins, which brings the current roster minus this year's additions up to 82 wins. You'll notice I've neglected to mention the loss of Skaggs, but I think that's offset by the loss of Cahill and Harvey. I went to Hofstra.

So we're at 82 wins. Now let's factor in our additions this off-season.

Rendon: Rendon was worth 7 WAR in 2019, 6.2 in 2018, and 6.7 in 2017. I think 6 wins is a safe prediction. +6

Bundy: 2.5 WAR in 2019, 1.0 WAR in 2018, 2.8 in 2017. The average of those 3 years is 2.1. So I'll say +2

Teheran: 1.6 WAR in 2019. I'll go with 1.0. +1

Castro: 1.6 WAR in 2019 and was a perennial 2+ WAR catcher for Houston. I'll go conservative again and say +1.

So 82+10 =92. 

Tl:dr I'm a fuckin genious and this team can win 92 games in 2020 even looking at everything conservatively. A few things go our way and we're in the 95+ range. 

Positivity! 

Didnt See You Oh Hello GIF by Cappa Video Productions

Nice write up Tdawg. Hope restored.

8F54051A-4F9D-450C-80EC-D53604D38CEB.jpeg

Edited by RendZone

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12 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

The most significant factor can be proven with a simple logical exercise.

When is a hit most valuable? When the bases are loaded.

When is a baserunner most valuable? When the next batter hits a homerun.

When is a triple least valuable? With 2 outs and the pitchers spot on deck.

Offense is made more valuable with the addition of more offense. It has a positive multiplier effect that weighs stronger on lower value events (like walks and singles) than higher value ones (like homeruns). So a pitcher is increasingly unwise to allow any positive outcomes the stronger the lineup gets.

This is true. It’s not so much that hitters will be better because of “protection” behind them. It’s that they’ll do more damage with runners on base in front of them. 
 

Also, the more hitters you send to the plate, the earlier in the game you get the starter out. And facing more middle relievers helps. That’s when a 4-3 lead in the 5th becomes an 8-4 win. 
 

You can definitely make the playoffs with a really good offense and bullpen and an average rotation. Winning the World Series is tougher that way, in a small sample you never know. 

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14 hours ago, Reveille1984 said:

88-90 wins isn't going to get the second WC, the AL is super top-heavy and I don't see that changing anytime soon.  The last two seasons the second WC had 96 and 97 wins.

 

13 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

While true the AL has seen multiple teams add and likely improve...  There may be fewer have nots.... CWS, Jays, Angels, Rangers all should be less flawed than a year ago.  

I think both of these have truth in them.
I too have noted that the low 90s might not be enough, however, more better teams should lower that threshold a little overall.
Hou and Oak for example wont win as many if we up our game.
Im still not sure 90-92 would be enough, im not sure it falls that far, but it might be closer than we think

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