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tdawg87

This is a 92 win team.

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I think we’re easily in the 90win category. We don’t have the front-line starting that we need, but we’re crazy deep and maybe a deadline trade for an ace and a playoff push gets us that edge. We have a top 3 offense in baseball and if not this year, the next year we will be even better. 

All we need is health. If we stay healthy then 90-95wins isn’t far out of reach. 

I think Houston takes a huge step back too so we actually could have a chance at the division. 

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7 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I’m not so sure of the methodology here but 92 wins is a reasonable expectation. I think they are closer to 86 right now but I guess we shall see.

AngelsLakwrsFan, I honestly think the difference between 86 wins and 92 wins is  just a few breaks to go the Angels way.  The last few years, this team seems to never get those breaks to go their way.  Adversity, horse shit pitching, injuries, etc. I’m playing the odds and this year, the Angels will catch a few good breaks finally and hopefully play in the postseason.

Yep, I took a big swig of the KoolAid.

Edited by PattyD22

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19 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I’m not so sure of the methodology here but 92 wins is a reasonable expectation. I think they are closer to 86 right now but I guess we shall see.

My math is sound.

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Finally some positivity. 
 

I think your projections are reasonable and actually somewhat conservative. Upton has been worth as much as 5 bWAR in recent seasons and Simmons had a 7 bWAR season. Adell may struggle at first but he could also be Juan Soto / Mookie Betts or Acuna. He could easily be 3 or 4 WAR guy and I could see him doing Betts 2015 line honestly but maybe a little worse average. I do think Betts played CF that year so that affects it, but still. 

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I think we're close to 90 wins on paper right now.  But the range on either side of that is fairly broad. 

things the team has going for it:

- strong core on offense that should be one of the best units in the league.  
- offensive depth particularly in the IF.  Pretty much every IF position has a solid backup if someone gets hurt.  They can't sustain an injury to Rendon but there are at least solid to above average players as redundancy everywhere else.  In the OF, the same holds true of Trout who just needs to be on the field but I think Adell and Marsh could fill in well for anyone else.   
- likely a solid bullpen.  Not flashy 
- great defense.  
- a strong coaching unit.  

things they don't:

- a mediocre at best starting rotation which will rely on guys who have either been recently injured or not great as well as a bunch of kids with potential.  There should be enough depth to make it work but it could go wrong real fast.  It needs one more solid contributer to really make it a solid middle of the pack unit.  

things that could go right:

- the team doesn't suffer a rash of injuries to key players like Simmons, Upton, Trout, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning etc.  
- La Stella is the same guy he was last year
- Canning turns a corner 
- Thaiss becomes an everyday player and displace Albert's at bats at 1b/DH (in conjunction with La Stella).  
- Rengifo becomes an everyday guy even if he doesn't play everyday which gives Maddon the flexibility to move Fletch around.  Particularly to the OF in case Goodwin, Adell, Marsh and Upton don't perform as expected.  
- Bundy and Teheran perform a little better than expected in an environment conducive to such 
- Adell and Marsh crush AAA and are just waiting ringside for the tag in.  
- Middleton finds his 2018 form and heads on that trajectory.  Buttrey has less innings stress and become elite.  Robles stays the same.  Noe and Cam pretty much hold serve.  One or two of Anderson, Cole, Bard, Keller Markel, and Milner turn a corner and become very good.  Overall, the unit becomes elite and locks down games from the 6th inning.  
- Ward, Walsh, Herm provide solid contributions in short spurts.  
- One of Barria, Suarez or Sandoval turns a corner and becomes a solid mid to back end rotation piece.  
- Andrew Heaney throws 170 innings.  
- Stassi and Castro are not black holes at the plate.  

Things that could go wrong:

- key injuries
- two or less of the above happen

I thing the range of outcomes is anywhere from 81 to 95 wins.  

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1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I thing the range of outcomes is anywhere from 81 to 95 wins.  

Whoa, that's a bit of a small window there. Lets be a little more realistic, ok?

I think the range of outcomes is anywhere from 60 to 100 wins.

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Also, IMHO, once a lineup reaches a certain point, lineup protection becomes real and each batter's effect becomes more than just additive.    With a massive upgrade at 3B, possible contributions by Adell at some point, and the removal of a black hole at catcher, etc.....we could see guys like Trout, Simmons, Upton, etc have great years at the plate.   I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 

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Ive said 2 things to date in regard to projecting '20.
#1 we were not a 72 win team on paper last year, i recall the projections pre-season being mid 80s before the pitching took a giant crap.
This team as it sits on paper is significantly improved.  Still no "ace" but it is reasonable to expect far better than we got from the rotation last year.
Bundy and Teheran may not be sexy, but they are much better than frick and frak we have last year.
Add in another year experience for Canning, Ohtani's return even in a more limited role, and while we wont win any Cy Youngs we should be solid if not spectacular rotation wise. 
The Pen should be better not having to pitch have the game every night.
Offensively, well of course thats upgraded.
Add it all up and low 90s is certainly possible.
#2 My fear though is that it wont be enough to get into the wildcard party.  Were going to need to find a few more wins to make that happen.

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1 minute ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Also, IMHO, once a lineup reaches a certain point, lineup protection becomes real and each batter's effect becomes more than just additive.    With a massive upgrade at 3B, possible contributions by Adell at some point, and the removal of a black hole at catcher, etc.....we could see guys like Trout, Simmons, Upton, etc have great years at the plate.   I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 

I agree that Trout will have a great year at the plate.

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2 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

 I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 



Agree 100%.

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51 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

AngelsLakwrsFan, I honestly think the difference between 86 wins and 92 wins is  just a few breaks to go the Angels way.  The last few years, this team seems to never get those breaks to go their way.  Adversity, horse shit pitching, injuries, etc. I’m playing the odds and this year, the Angels will catch a few good breaks finally and hopefully play in the postseason.

Yep, I took a big swig of the KoolAid.

Yes... One thing I've mentioned on here before is the average variance between projected performance and actual wins. Six wins is nothing in this context. About 5 teams each year will beat their expected wins by that much.

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