This is a 92 win team.

[tdawg87]

We've had a lot of negativity lately so I felt like putting on the rosy glasses and being a blind superfan for a few minutes. 

Let me preface this by saying I'm not an analytics nerd like some here, so I'm not going to draw up some novel using graphs and spin rates and launch angles. I will however simplify things using fWAR. I want to state I in NO WAY believe WAR equates directly to wins. But I'm doing this anyway.

Now, Fletcher has stated many times before how the majority of improvement comes from within. So I'm going to use WAR to see, realistically how this team (without Rendon, Bundy, Teheran, or Castro) can improve. I will not be using any fangraphs projection systems because fuck you. Again, I'm aware that WAR doesn't quite work this way but it's the simplest way to project things from a fans standpoint and also fuck you.

Anyway, I'm just going to look at the major players and how many "wins" they can add over last year. I won't do this for every reliever.

Trout: Trout missed the final month of the year. I think it's safe to say if he played that final month, he would have been worth 1 more win. So that's a +1.

Upton: Upton is a big key to the success of the team in 2020. Upton was injured and missed more than half the year. He was worth -0.2 fWAR. IF he's healthy, he's one of the most consistent players in baseball. However, I'm going to be conservative here and say he only adds 2 wins over 2019. A 1.8 WAR is quite low for him based on his career numbers but I don't want to be entirely unrealistic. So +2.

Simmons: Simmons missed significant time due to injuries and he also saw his offensive numbers drop significantly. I could go one of two was here: Either he has one of the best years of his career playing for a contract, or he stays mostly healthy but continues to decline with the bat. For the sake of being unbiased, I'm going to go with the latter. I think he'll play 20-30 more games, but his hitting will stay the same. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2019, so I'm giving him 1 more win for 2020. So +1

Ohtani: Obviously missed time and didn't throw a single pitch. His offense was very good, but not as good as 2018. Getting him back on the mound will be great, but there's no telling what we're going to get. He was worth 1.8 fWAR in 2019, so I'm going to have him match his rookie year of 2.8. So +1.

Heaney: His health is obviously the biggest issue. I think he will pitch better, but I don't think he eclipses 150 innings. Ultimately I see another win at best. +1

Canning: I'm expecting big things from Canning this year, but I'm going to hold those expectations back here. I think he will pitch more, but he may not hit more than 150 innings. So like Heaney, a win at best over 2019. +1

The bullpen: Getting Middleton back is huge. Last year, our pen was worth 2.5 WAR, which was good for 16th in MLB and 9th in the AL. I think the pen could improve a lot, but I'm going to be conservative and add 1 win, which in 2019 would have made us 8th in the AL. +1

The young starters: I'm talking our main depth here. Sandoval, Barria, Suarez, and Peters. Let's face it, most, if not all of these guys will see innings in 2020. In 2019 they were worth -1.5 WAR. It was bad. They will improve. This is an easy +1.

Right field: Losing Kole sucks, but he was only worth 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin was worth 1.9 WAR. I think between him and Adell, it will be a wash. +0

Pujols, Stassi, La Stella, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss: I put these all together because I don't see much change one way or another with them individually. Together, they were worth 5.7 WAR. I see Fletcher staying about the same, maybe adding a bit. Pujols might lose a bit but nothing significant. I think La Stella goes down, Rengifo and Thaiss go up. Ward stays about the same. Stassi is the make-or-break here, which is hilarious. He was just awful in 2019, being worth -0.3 WAR in just 147 PA's. I'm going to assume he is better than that and add a win. A 0.3 WAR from Stassi is not a huge expectation. +1.

So the total comes to +10 wins, which brings the current roster minus this year's additions up to 82 wins. You'll notice I've neglected to mention the loss of Skaggs, but I think that's offset by the loss of Cahill and Harvey. I went to Hofstra.

So we're at 82 wins. Now let's factor in our additions this off-season.

Rendon: Rendon was worth 7 WAR in 2019, 6.2 in 2018, and 6.7 in 2017. I think 6 wins is a safe prediction. +6

Bundy: 2.5 WAR in 2019, 1.0 WAR in 2018, 2.8 in 2017. The average of those 3 years is 2.1. So I'll say +2

Teheran: 1.6 WAR in 2019. I'll go with 1.0. +1

Castro: 1.6 WAR in 2019 and was a perennial 2+ WAR catcher for Houston. I'll go conservative again and say +1.

So 82+10 =92. 

Tl:dr I'm a fuckin genious and this team can win 92 games in 2020 even looking at everything conservatively. A few things go our way and we're in the 95+ range. 

Positivity! 

Edited January 12, 2020 by tdawg87

[PattyD22]

From your fingertips to God’s and Artie’s ears.  This is some great work tdawg.  Awesome

Edited January 12, 2020 by PattyD22

[UndertheHalo]

Tdawg made a good vibes post.  Thank you. 
 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I’m not so sure of the methodology here but 92 wins is a reasonable expectation. I think they are closer to 86 right now but I guess we shall see.

[UndertheHalo]

Also I think everything here falls into the Billy Eppler “band of outcomes” that he talks about.  So it’s reasonable for sure.  

Edited January 12, 2020 by UndertheHalo

[angelsnationtalk]

I think we’re easily in the 90win category. We don’t have the front-line starting that we need, but we’re crazy deep and maybe a deadline trade for an ace and a playoff push gets us that edge. We have a top 3 offense in baseball and if not this year, the next year we will be even better. 

All we need is health. If we stay healthy then 90-95wins isn’t far out of reach. 

I think Houston takes a huge step back too so we actually could have a chance at the division. 

[PattyD22]

7 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I’m not so sure of the methodology here but 92 wins is a reasonable expectation. I think they are closer to 86 right now but I guess we shall see.

AngelsLakwrsFan, I honestly think the difference between 86 wins and 92 wins is  just a few breaks to go the Angels way.  The last few years, this team seems to never get those breaks to go their way.  Adversity, horse shit pitching, injuries, etc. I’m playing the odds and this year, the Angels will catch a few good breaks finally and hopefully play in the postseason.

Yep, I took a big swig of the KoolAid.

Edited January 12, 2020 by PattyD22

[tdawg87]

19 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I’m not so sure of the methodology here but 92 wins is a reasonable expectation. I think they are closer to 86 right now but I guess we shall see.

My math is sound.

[Hubs]

Finally some positivity. 
 

I think your projections are reasonable and actually somewhat conservative. Upton has been worth as much as 5 bWAR in recent seasons and Simmons had a 7 bWAR season. Adell may struggle at first but he could also be Juan Soto / Mookie Betts or Acuna. He could easily be 3 or 4 WAR guy and I could see him doing Betts 2015 line honestly but maybe a little worse average. I do think Betts played CF that year so that affects it, but still. 

[ChicagoHalo]

Better coaching might add a win or two. 

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, ChicagoHalo said:

Better coaching might add a win or two. 

[mmc]

You’re a 92 win team.

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

You’re a 92 win team.

[Docwaukee]

I think we're close to 90 wins on paper right now.  But the range on either side of that is fairly broad. 

things the team has going for it:

- strong core on offense that should be one of the best units in the league.  
- offensive depth particularly in the IF.  Pretty much every IF position has a solid backup if someone gets hurt.  They can't sustain an injury to Rendon but there are at least solid to above average players as redundancy everywhere else.  In the OF, the same holds true of Trout who just needs to be on the field but I think Adell and Marsh could fill in well for anyone else.   
- likely a solid bullpen.  Not flashy 
- great defense.  
- a strong coaching unit.  

things they don't:

- a mediocre at best starting rotation which will rely on guys who have either been recently injured or not great as well as a bunch of kids with potential.  There should be enough depth to make it work but it could go wrong real fast.  It needs one more solid contributer to really make it a solid middle of the pack unit.  

things that could go right:

- the team doesn't suffer a rash of injuries to key players like Simmons, Upton, Trout, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning etc.  
- La Stella is the same guy he was last year
- Canning turns a corner 
- Thaiss becomes an everyday player and displace Albert's at bats at 1b/DH (in conjunction with La Stella).  
- Rengifo becomes an everyday guy even if he doesn't play everyday which gives Maddon the flexibility to move Fletch around.  Particularly to the OF in case Goodwin, Adell, Marsh and Upton don't perform as expected.  
- Bundy and Teheran perform a little better than expected in an environment conducive to such 
- Adell and Marsh crush AAA and are just waiting ringside for the tag in.  
- Middleton finds his 2018 form and heads on that trajectory.  Buttrey has less innings stress and become elite.  Robles stays the same.  Noe and Cam pretty much hold serve.  One or two of Anderson, Cole, Bard, Keller Markel, and Milner turn a corner and become very good.  Overall, the unit becomes elite and locks down games from the 6th inning.  
- Ward, Walsh, Herm provide solid contributions in short spurts.  
- One of Barria, Suarez or Sandoval turns a corner and becomes a solid mid to back end rotation piece.  
- Andrew Heaney throws 170 innings.  
- Stassi and Castro are not black holes at the plate.  

Things that could go wrong:

- key injuries
- two or less of the above happen

I thing the range of outcomes is anywhere from 81 to 95 wins.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

38 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

My math is sound.

The addition portion is

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I thing the range of outcomes is anywhere from 81 to 95 wins.  

Whoa, that's a bit of a small window there. Lets be a little more realistic, ok?

I think the range of outcomes is anywhere from 60 to 100 wins.

[disarcina]

92 win team minus 5 or 6 equals 87/86.

[tdawg87]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

The addition portion is

Thank you.

[tdawg87]

Just now, disarcina said:

92 win team minus 5 or 6 equals 87/86.

This guy knows how to math.

[VariousCrap]

I think on paper this team currently is a 87-90 win team.  If they could come up with on more solid arm for the rotation, they become a 90+ winning team on paper.  

[Rally Gorilla]

Also, IMHO, once a lineup reaches a certain point, lineup protection becomes real and each batter's effect becomes more than just additive.    With a massive upgrade at 3B, possible contributions by Adell at some point, and the removal of a black hole at catcher, etc.....we could see guys like Trout, Simmons, Upton, etc have great years at the plate.   I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 

[floplag]

Ive said 2 things to date in regard to projecting '20.
#1 we were not a 72 win team on paper last year, i recall the projections pre-season being mid 80s before the pitching took a giant crap.
This team as it sits on paper is significantly improved.  Still no "ace" but it is reasonable to expect far better than we got from the rotation last year.
Bundy and Teheran may not be sexy, but they are much better than frick and frak we have last year.
Add in another year experience for Canning, Ohtani's return even in a more limited role, and while we wont win any Cy Youngs we should be solid if not spectacular rotation wise. 
The Pen should be better not having to pitch have the game every night.
Offensively, well of course thats upgraded.
Add it all up and low 90s is certainly possible.
#2 My fear though is that it wont be enough to get into the wildcard party.  Were going to need to find a few more wins to make that happen.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Also, IMHO, once a lineup reaches a certain point, lineup protection becomes real and each batter's effect becomes more than just additive.    With a massive upgrade at 3B, possible contributions by Adell at some point, and the removal of a black hole at catcher, etc.....we could see guys like Trout, Simmons, Upton, etc have great years at the plate.   I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 

I agree that Trout will have a great year at the plate.

[VariousCrap]

2 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

 I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

 

Agree 100%.

[AngelsLakersFan]

51 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

AngelsLakwrsFan, I honestly think the difference between 86 wins and 92 wins is  just a few breaks to go the Angels way.  The last few years, this team seems to never get those breaks to go their way.  Adversity, horse shit pitching, injuries, etc. I’m playing the odds and this year, the Angels will catch a few good breaks finally and hopefully play in the postseason.

Yep, I took a big swig of the KoolAid.

Yes... One thing I've mentioned on here before is the average variance between projected performance and actual wins. Six wins is nothing in this context. About 5 teams each year will beat their expected wins by that much.