Simmons Extension?

[Jeff Fletcher]

24 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

Not sure about the tier he'd end up as but probably a type A FA netting a 1st and sandwich pick or sandwich and a 2nd? 

There are no more Type A or Type B FA. If a team loses a FA who rejected a qualifying offer, it gets one pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 

[Junkballer]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

There are no more Type A or Type B FA. If a team loses a FA who rejected a qualifying offer, it gets one pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 

Well in that case...

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If you’re talking about a team option, that’s giving more to the team, not the player. 
 

Sometimes it seems like people view adding an option as some extra benefit for the player, like better than a 2-year deal but not a 3-year deal. It’s not. A player would rather have 2 year deal than a 2-year deal with a team option. (Assuming the buyout is an inconsequential amount, which it always is.)
 

Think about it. 
 

Anyway, sorry for the threadjack.

i was actually thinking more mutual option, but your point is valid of course. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don’t think the Angels feel this way. 
 

Assuming they end up just a little over the luxury tax, and with expiring contracts that will keep them from going over several years in a row, the luxury tax hit is minimal compared to their true cash flow. 
 

They would rather have a $200M payroll that is at $210M per the tax than a $210M payroll that is at $200M, per the tax. 

Which is why I think they might do it. They could reduce his $15 million this year to like $10 million then add a few more years with increasing salaries to line up with Pujols and Upton

[Cosmo_Kramer]

11 minutes ago, floplag said:

i was actually thinking more mutual option, but your point is valid of course. 

Mutual options are basically pointless in practice. They're never exercised.

[tdawg87]

13 hours ago, ettin said:

I don't think I have ever nit-picked at one of your posts before but alas (you have successfully done it to me however! )…. Generally, defense is the first thing to drop off with age for most players. That being said Simmons has a chance to not degrade as fast.

Jahmai Jones is not a shortstop, he has played zero games in the Minors. If you meant this facetiously, my apologies.

I mean that Jam Jones could come up and play 2nd and Fletch could move over to short

 

Dumbass.

[Angel Oracle]

2 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Which is why I think they might do it. They could reduce his $15 million this year to like $10 million then add a few more years with increasing salaries to line up with Pujols and Upton

A contract through 2024, looking something like this?    2020 - $12 million, 2021 - $15 million, 2022 - $18 million, 2023 - $22 million, 2024 - $22 million

Essentially, it would be like paying the $15 million for 2020, and then extending for 4 years/$74 million. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

A contract through 2024, looking something like this?    2020 - $12 million, 2021 - $15 million, 2022 - $18 million, 2023 - $22 million, 2024 - $22 million

Essentially, it would be like paying the $15 million for 2020, and then extending for 4 years/$74 million. 

I might do something like this:

2020 - $10 million

2021 - $10 million

2022 - $17.5 million

2023 - $17.5 million

2024 - $17.5 million

2025 - $17.5 million vesting option ($2.5 mil buyout)

[Cosmo_Kramer]

One thing about Simmons is the loaded SS market coming up.

2021 FA class

Simmons

Semien

Profar

Gregorius

2022 FA class

Lindor

Correa

Baez

Story

Seager

2021 is relatively thin, so maybe Simmons gets extra attention. On the other hand, 2022 is loaded (for now), so maybe the 2021 market is less aggressive. Hard to predict.

But I think ~$15 million is fair value for Simmons.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Mutual options are basically pointless in practice. They're never exercised.

Fair enough, the bottom line is i dont want to go beyond 2 more years if i dont have to. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

One thing about Simmons is the loaded SS market coming up.

2021 FA class

Simmons

Semien

Profar

Gregorius

2022 FA class

Lindor

Correa

Baez

Story

Seager

2021 is relatively thin, so maybe Simmons gets extra attention. On the other hand, 2022 is loaded (for now), so maybe the 2021 market is less aggressive. Hard to predict.

But I think ~$15 million is fair value for Simmons.

A very good point, but i dont see them dipping back into another large FA position player for a bit save for maybe a Realmuto type we cant address internally.  But even thats probably wishful thinking i guess.

[ukyah]

it's hard for me to see him getting more than four years in FA, and i don't think the price gets driven up much over 15 million per. if he has a good season this year, then maybe the angels give him the QO, which he may accept, but try to sign him for 3/45. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

20 minutes ago, ukyah said:

it's hard for me to see him getting more than four years in FA, and i don't think the price gets driven up much over 15 million per. if he has a good season this year, then maybe the angels give him the QO, which he may accept, but try to sign him for 3/45. 

I just don't think 3/45 is realistic, which is why I started at 4/60, especially if he has a good year.

But I'm high on him in 2020.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 hour ago, RBM said:

I might do something like this:

2020 - $15 million

2021 - Qualifying Offer (Only if he puts up 2018 numbers and Fletcher or Rengifo are deemed not at replacement value)

I think that's what will actually happen

[tdawg87]

The QO is intriguing. He may very well accept it. If he does, that gives an extra year for Wilson to develOhhh.

Edited January 9, 2020 by tdawg87

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

The QO is intriguing. He may very well accept it. If he does, that gives an extra year for Wilson to develOhhh.

Him accepting the QO would yield good value in a vacuum, but it would probably prevent the Angels from making bigger moves next year. Allocating ~$18 million to him when Pujols is still on the books is a crunch.

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Him accepting the QO would yield good value in a vacuum, but it would probably prevent the Angels from making bigger moves next year. Allocating ~$18 million to him when Pujols is still on the books is a crunch.

Maybe. Really depends on the long term plans.

IMO Simmons is a part of the long term plans. But I could be wrong and Eppler is waiting for the 2022 off-season to sign one of the shortstops available. 

We'll have to see.

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If you’re talking about a team option, that’s giving more to the team, not the player. 
 

Sometimes it seems like people view adding an option as some extra benefit for the player, like better than a 2-year deal but not a 3-year deal. It’s not. A player would rather have 2 year deal than a 2-year deal with a team option. (Assuming the buyout is an inconsequential amount, which it always is.)
 

Think about it. 
 

Anyway, sorry for the threadjack.

Options benefit the team, buyouts the player. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Maybe. Really depends on the long term plans.

IMO Simmons is a part of the long term plans. But I could be wrong and Eppler is waiting for the 2022 off-season to sign one of the shortstops available. 

We'll have to see.

If he were to accept a QO he'd become a FA in 2022 as probably the 5th most desirable SS, which is going to crush his value. If he declines the QO he enters FA as a mid tier FA with a draft pick attached to him, which probably reduces his value by ~$10m as well as the market for his services. He's in a pretty bad position actually, which means he's probably going to be open to signing an extension if the Angels are. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

If he were to accept a QO he'd become a FA in 2022 as probably the 5th most desirable SS, which is going to crush his value. If he declines the QO he enters FA as a mid tier FA with a draft pick attached to him, which probably reduces his value by ~$10m as well as the market for his services. He's in a pretty bad position actually, which means he's probably going to be open to signing an extension if the Angels are. 

Exactly. So I think both sides have some incentive to get an extension done, but it depends on the price.

[tdawg87]

Both sides!

Wait wrong thread.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Exactly. So I think both sides have some incentive to get an extension done, but it depends on the price.

Well because of the depth they've acquired I think the Angels are in a position to potentially not need his services, while needing to reallocate payroll to the starting rotation. I think negotiating an extension is going to come down to how good of a deal the Angels can get and whether or not Simmons feels he can do better on the open market despite his poor positioning.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

4 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Well because of the depth they've acquired I think the Angels are in a position to potentially not need his services, while needing to reallocate payroll to the starting rotation. I think negotiating an extension is going to come down to how good of a deal the Angels can get and whether or not Simmons feels he can do better on the open market despite his poor positioning.

Yeah. Though I'm not particularly high on Rengifo, for example, which is why my proposal was a bit more aggressive.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, RBM said:

Exactly. This was my thinking when I mentioned the QO. It gives the Angels leverage in the process because If it got to that point Simba would likely decline the QO (and Angels get Comp Round B pick) to test FA in 2021 and avoid the 2022 class of Lindor/Baez/Correa/Seager/Story/Crawford/Rojas.

Simmons is in a tough spot - well as tough as it can be for a guy making $15 M. He needs to just go out and have a great year, show that 2019 is not his new norm and then make a decision. I could still see the Angels wanting to bring him back but nowhere near the $18-22 M. some here are projecting. Maybe something like a 3/$36 M.

Like I said the alternative is Fletcher or Rengifo at SS and using the payroll space toward another 2021 FA pitcher - Odorizzi, Bauer, Stroman, Ray, etc.

The more I think about it the more I think if he has a good year the Angels discuss an extension with him before the end of the season and bring him back on a team friendly deal. I'm not exactly sure who they are gona spend that $15m on anyway, especially since they haven't seemed to be able to spend much money on decent pitching under Eppler's tenure. 

[Troll Daddy]

Fletcher reminds me of Eckstein ... but bigger and more powerful