SoWhat

Angels discussed Clevinger with Indians

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Another example of why I am as skeptical as I am about WAR as it relates to pitching.

I'm not sold on WAR either when it comes to pitching, and I don't agree with the order of the Top 30, but overall, looking at the Top 30 names listed, I don't see much I disagree with, again, aside from the order. 

And looking at the next 30, I don't see many really feel like they belong in the first 30. 

Baseball Reference Top 30 SP by bWAR, 2019:

  • 7+: Verlander, Minor, Lynn, deGrom
  • 6+: Cole, Strasburg, Eduardo Rodriguez
  • 5+: Jack Flaherty, Scherzer, Soroka, Corbin, Giolito, Sonny Gray, Greinke, Ryu, Morton, Bieber
  • 4+: Luis Castillo, John Means, Jon Gray, Stroman, Clevinger,
  • 3+: Hendricks, Aaron Sanchez, Nola, Odorizzi, Kershaw, Boyd, German Marquez, Wheeler
  • Just missed Top 30, 3+ bWAR: Berrios, Darvish, Marco Gonzales, Sandy Alcantara, Hamels

After that, you get guys like Chris Paddack, Max Fried, Tyler Glasnow, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton...a couple guys who obviously have #1 stuff in Sale, Paddack, Syndergaard, but fell short due injuries, incomplete seasons, poor seasons. That's not to say they're no longer #1 types, but, what's to say it isn't a decline or start of injury/inconsistencies? 

Fangraphs Top 30 SP by fWAR, 2019:

  • 7+: Cole, deGrom
  • 6+: Lynn, Scherzer, Verlander, Morton
  • 5+: Strasburg, Bieber, Greinke, Giolito, Buehler,
  • 4+: Ryu, Corbin, Flaherty, Wheeler, Clevinger, Berrios, Syndergaard, Sonny Gray, Odorizzi, Minor, Hendricks, Luis Castillo, Soroka
  • 3+: Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marco Gonzales, Sale, Paxton, Nola
  • Just missed Top 30, 3+ fWAR: Marquez, Kershaw, Quintana, Boyd, Woodruff, Bauer, Musgrove, Tanaka, Bumgarner, Jon Gray

I realized I had some of the filters set incorrectly earlier, so this Fangraphs list is more accurate than what I referenced above, but the Lance Lynn point still stands. He wasn't nearly as dominant, and I certainly don't agree that he's the 3rd best SP in 2019, but he produced a Top 30 season last year with rates comparable to what David Price delivered in '19 and in his last four years with Boston. Injury has been what's held him back. 

At a glance, it seems like Fangraphs WAR looks much more accurate in measuring SP.
Eduardo Rodriguez is off by 3+ WAR, and Buehler didn't even top 2.5 WAR by BBREF measurements.

Overall though, I think when looking at what constitutes a #1 pitcher, looking at the top 30 SP by WAR - especially fWAR - looks to be fairly consistent, aside from order. 

Edited by totdprods

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https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=3,d

War as a pitching metric is meh.... It's not predictive so, it's limited to telling you what's happened and that's pretty much it.   As far as all the derivatives go....   Ra9-war is my choice.

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19 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=3,d

War as a pitching metric is meh.... It's not predictive so, it's limited to telling you what's happened and that's pretty much it.   As far as all the derivatives go....   Ra9-war is my choice.

That’s a pretty good Top 30. Lance Lynn is still Top 10. 

And right, I get that WAR isn’t predictive - essentially all I’m using it to define here is what constitutes a “#1”, as in the “best” 30 SPs measuring not only stuff, but also consistency and ability to put up significant solid innings. And that if Lance Lynn can fall into the list of 30, regardless of where he placed, David Price is probably as likely to place in this Top 30 as well, based on some of their similarities in production.

I’m in no way endorsing Price, just saying that, if he matches his last four years production over a full season, he still likely lands among the year’s Top 30 arms, in some order. 

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37 minutes ago, Angelfan79 said:

Clevinger is no Ace and no way would Addel be worth trading for him. What a joke

Don’t necessarily disagree, but what makes him not an ace? Wins? ERA? Strikeouts? Innings pitched? Where does he come short and where would he need to be to be considered one?

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1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

This is one of the reasons I’m not crazy about the idea of trading for him. He seems really immature. 

That was the main reason I posted it. If he really is making fake accounts like that to defend himself, then he has the mentality of a 13 year old.

 

Yeah sorry I'll take Adell. 

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58 minutes ago, Bronson said:

That was the main reason I posted it. If he really is making fake accounts like that to defend himself, then he has the mentality of a 13 year old.

 

Yeah sorry I'll take Adell. 

I suspect a lot more people have burner accounts than we realize. The ones we hear about are just a lot more incompetent about hiding it. 

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6 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I suspect a lot more people have burner accounts than we realize. The ones we hear about are just a lot more incompetent about hiding it. 

But it was also the way he worded his response. It was so childish and lame. Maybe that was the point. I don't know.

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2 hours ago, Bronson said:

That was the main reason I posted it. If he really is making fake accounts like that to defend himself, then he has the mentality of a 13 year old.

 

Yeah sorry I'll take Adell. 

Just watch some of the YouTube clips he’s featured in with Bauer and others. He just seems like a potential Nuke Laloosh that can implode mentally at anytime. Also, given  his penchant for whining, his hair drama  as an Angel minor leaguer for one, I just don’t think it would be a good move. I would rather keep the unproven but sky’s the limit upside talented character guy in Adell then obtain a potential drama queen that could implode either physically or mentally anytime. 

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15 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

Holy shit. Have you gone through this Tweets? This dude is a child

No I havent. I better make some popcorn real fast.

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I'd trade anyone not named Adell for Clevinger.  If it's a package around Marsh then it would have likely been done yesterday, so I doubt they're interested in that deal.  No team is going to trade a 20 year old top 3 position player prospect that's nearly MLB ready for a 29 year old with 3 years of control no matter what their needs are, nor should they.  If we move Adell I'm looking for premium ace material or a package including someone with a lot more years of control and some proven MLB success (Soroka, Bieber, Castillo, DeGrom), etc.

I don't get the attitude though of not making a move because the Yankees/Astros are better.  Who do we have in the pipeline that is projecting to be even close to what Clevinger is now anytime soon? We're going to need a better rotation eventually if we want to seriously contend, whether it's this year, next year, five years from now, whatever.  With a core of Trout/Rendon at 28/29 years old, it doesn't really make sense to keep sitting on our hands hoping an ace falls in our lap while these guys move into their 30's.  A guy like Clevinger would immediately anchor our staff and solve most of our rotation problems (slots Ohtani down to 2, with Heaney+Bundy+Teheran 3-5 and Canning/Suarez/Barria/Suarez as backfills).   

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12 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

haven’t seen one rational person suggest a trade that could be categorized as trading the future for the past.

David Price

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4 hours ago, Lou said:

David Price

I believe the rational argument for Price was you can probably get him without giving up the future because of the money attached to him.
Good stab at it though.

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1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

I believe the rational argument for Price was you can probably get him without giving up the future because of the money attached to him.
Good stab at it though.

That, however, has nothing to do with past or present.

Justifying associated cost is a different argument.

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13 hours ago, Halodays said:

i watched that also, but i think their motivation was just Trout in the playoffs.  They dont really give a rats about the clubs success beyond that.
They kept saying how hes a true ace, one of the best pitchers in the game, and im sorry but based on what?  Yes, i get it, hes got great peripherals but has only had one fully healthy season to date, one.  How can you attach your future to that?  So many moving parts and back problems?  He could win a Cy Young or he could be out of the game in 2 years.  He scares the hell out of me to be frank.  

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