Sign Alex Wood or Trade Prospects for a Starting Pitcher?

[hangin n wangin]

16 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

If he's 100% healthy -- yes, he has been.   

49% GB rate
0.85 HR/9
2.25 BB/9
3.49 FIP

The weakest part of his game is said to be his K rate and even that sits at 8.2

The issue with him has been and likely always will be -- is he healthy.

 

I'd give him a 1 year deal to find out. Nothin' like some good wood.

[failos]

[Lou]

pitchers with bad backs are always a good investment.

[Angel Oracle]

Vlad had back surgery in 2003, yet he proved to be a great addition in 2004.

i know, he wasn’t a pitcher.   Although he had a great arm.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Vlad had back surgery in 2003, yet he proved to be a great addition in 2004.

i know, he wasn’t a pitcher.   Although he had a great arm.

how many hard throws did he make per game?  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

I agree with what you're saying regarding being patient, but that shouldn't stop us from trying to get another possible number 3, especially if it's just a one year deal. Why not have more depth (even more upside with Wood), just in case? We have seen what has happened the past few years. Regardless of if Wood is a top end starter or not, he would still improve the team if he pitched like a number 2/3, which he has before.

I'm not opposed to signing Wood, but I just don't know how necessary it is. Not to mention, it pushes Sandoval out  of the rotation - do we really want that? I personally think that Sandoval is ready to step in and be a #4 right now. That isn't far below what Wood is capable of, but for 5-10% of the cost.

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

If he's 100% healthy -- yes, he has been.   

49% GB rate
0.85 HR/9
2.25 BB/9
3.49 FIP

The weakest part of his game is said to be his K rate and even that sits at 8.2

The issue with him has been and likely always will be -- is he healthy.

 

So his upside is similar to that of Bundy, Teheran, Heaney, Canning, and Sandoval? 

53 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And I think that's part of the reason why I keep saying Price isn't the worst way to go. He improves the rotation and would likely cost very little of anything in prospects.

While I do think that Price is still a solid #3, I'd only go for him if the Angels package Betts with him or take the bulk of his contract. He's basically owed about twice as much as he's probably worth (3/$96M for age 34-36).

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So his upside is similar to that of Bundy, Teheran, Heaney, Canning, and Sandoval? 

No, it's higher, as evidenced by the numbers provided by Inside Pitch.

[hangin n wangin]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm not opposed to signing Wood, but I just don't know how necessary it is. Not to mention, it pushes Sandoval out  of the rotation - do we really want that? I personally think that Sandoval is ready to step in and be a #4 right now. That isn't far below what Wood is capable of, but for 5-10% of the cost.

I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary, but I think it could really benefit us. Btw, I agree with you about Sandoval being ready to go, but we have some injury prone ass pitchers. A couple of the guys we have are going to go down via injury or get rested at some point and the more solid arms to fill in, the better. I’m mainly talking about Heaney and Canning. Heaney is a walking injury and canning hasn’t pitched many innings at the major league level. Ohtani will also be limited as well. I know you know this already but I’m just stressing the need of having viable replacements. If we are trying to contend, I would rather have the most viable arms available, rather than being on the other end of the stick. I know you like our young guys too and so do I, but their time will come. 

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

No, it's higher, as evidenced by the numbers provided by Inside Pitch.

Not really, or not significantly so. Those numbers are pretty well  enfolded into fWAR. Consider that Wood has had four healthy seasons (2014-15, 2017-18) of 150-190ish IP, all within the 2.4 to 3.1 fWAR range. Meaning, he's pretty well established his upside: and it is a solid #3.

Andrew Heaney had a breakout healthy year in 2018, with a 2.8 WAR in 180 IP: very similar to a healthy Wood year.)

Dylan Bundy has produced Wood-esque seasons (2.8, 2.5 fWAR in two out of the last three years (2017, 2019).

Julio Teheran has had three years in Wood's range: 2.6, 3.4, 3.0 fWAR. IN the last three he's been down in the 0.7 to 1.6 range due to higher FIPs, but still decent ERAs.

Those are the three veterans. The Angels have several young guys  in Canning, Sandoval, Barria, and Suarez, all of whom arguably  have upsides similar or better to what Wood has produced.

Again, I'm not opposed to signing Wood, I just don't  think he adds much to the quality of the rotation. Maybe a touch, but not much.

[tdawg87]

Remember when WAR for pitchers was stupid?

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Remember when WAR for pitchers was stupid?

As I said, Inside Pitch's numbers are enfolded in fWAR, so you're contradicting your point. 

[Lou]

Face!

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

As I said, Inside Pitch's numbers are enfolded in fWAR, so you're contradicting your point. 

Nope.

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Nope.

too late, I already said Face!

[tdawg87]

Help me Papa

[Lou]

Help me get her out of my heart

[Stax]

Sign both Wood and Walker. We know Walker is going to be out a while, with the Angels luck, one or two of the starters may get hurt. You can never have enough pitching.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

So his upside is similar to that of Bundy, Teheran, Heaney, Canning, and Sandoval?

Oh please..... 

His actual ESTABLISHED norms are what most here would view as a best case scenario for Bundy, Heaney, Canning, and Sandoval.

If we base it on his excellent 2017 season, then Wood's upside dwarfs the others.

Again, the question is, is he healthy?

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Stax said:

Sign both Wood and Walker. We know Walker is going to be out a while, with the Angels luck, one or two of the starters may get hurt. You can never have enough pitching.  

Yeah but we only have so many roster spots.

I do like the idea though. But if we add someone like Wood to the 40 man, we're probably dropping another pitcher to make space. We do have what, 9 SP on the roster? 10 if you include Ohtani?

[Inside Pitch]

49 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

As I said, Inside Pitch's numbers are enfolded in fWAR, so you're contradicting your point. 

Or you could use Ra9 which shows exactly how much better Wood is at limiting runs.   Twice, Wood has posted a Ra9 WAR over 4.0.  How good is that?  Walker Buehler ended at 3.9 last year....  Heaney's "breakout" 2018 he came in at 2.0.

 https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/6/17/15814934/ervin-santana-twins-ra9-war-fwar-debate

[tdawg87]

Validation!

[hangin n wangin]

18 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Yeah but we only have so many roster spots.

I do like the idea though. But if we add someone like Wood to the 40 man, we're probably dropping another pitcher to make space. We do have what, 9 SP on the roster? 10 if you include Ohtani?

Back in the day where a 5 man set rotation was more of a thing, I could see why people would think having 9-10 possible starters would be nuts... but the game has changed and starters are being coddled and not throwing many innings. Plus, our specific starters either croke or get a tommy john. Soo yea, I’m down for as many starters as possible.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, hangin n wangin said:

Back in the day where a 5 man set rotation was more of a thing, I could see why people would think having 9-10 possible starters would be nuts... but the game has changed and starters are being coddled and not throwing many innings. Plus, our specific starters either croke or get a tommy john. Soo yea, I’m down for as many starters as possible.

Oh I'm fine being that many starters deep. But we aren't really going to carry more. If we need more then we have bigger issues than SP depth.

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Back in the day where a 5 man set rotation was more of a thing, I could see why people would think having 9-10 possible starters would be nuts... but the game has changed and starters are being coddled and not throwing many innings. Plus, our specific starters either croke or get a tommy john. Soo yea, I’m down for as many starters as possible.

Looking at our rotation with the concerns regarding Ohtani, Canning's elbow, and Sandoval's workload, not to mention Heaney's tendency to end up injured or fatigued.... you really have to wonder if they wouldn't be better off going to a full time 6 man rotation or  Kenta Maeda-ing a SP  and being able to rest guys to keep them healthy.

At this point with all the injuries they have suffered through getting an extra arm may be the best way to go.

[Inside Pitch]

Oh.... And about Alex Wood...  The best argument against him isn't that our guys could be as good as he's been, but rather that because of his dubious health record and horrendous showing last year his future projection is similar to the guys we already have....  So again, the question is whether or not he's healthy..

But using projections as the barometer, neither Wood not Walker is a marked improvement on what we have, so AJ referencing the cost is a legit argument..   The cost would have to be pretty low.