Angels sign Julio Teheran (1 year, $9 million)

[gotbeer]

Not a bad signing.  No way do I think he will be a 1/2 type pitcher.  But he's a solid 3/4 type pitcher.   And for $9 million on a 1 year deal.  Very low risk.  

Just IMO, but this really frees the Angels up quite a bit.  We still need a 1/2 pitcher.  And if we can get the right kind of deal, I think Ryu can fit that role.  But with Bundy, Teheran and Ohtani.  That's a solid 3/4/5 end of the rotation.  And IMO, that would mean Heaney, Canning, Suarez, Barria could be used as trade chips.  

[Angel Oracle]

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Angels SP WAR top 6 by IP (2019)
Cahill: -0.4
Pena: 0.8
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Barria: -0.5
Suarez: -1.2
Total: 0.8

Angels FA SP WAR (2019) top 6 rotation for 2020
Keuchel: 2.0 (Assuming we get him)
Ohtani (2018): 1.2 
Teheran: 2.4
Bundy: 2.3
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Total: 10.0
Total without Keuchel: 8.0

This is a VERY big difference already

Then add Rendon and a healthy Upton into the mix.      Maybe currently an 87 win team?   

[Lou]

14 minutes ago, Dick B Back said:

@Lifetime

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

1 year 9M?  No issues with that and I'm glad they've added 2 SP while they could still add another.  If they can add someone like Keuchel or Ryu then on paper this has been a productive off season and hopefully that translates into success during the season.

[Erstad Grit]

11 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Then add Rendon and a healthy Upton into the mix.      Maybe currently an 87 win team?   

That's a fair guess.

Add Ryu and a decent catcher and add 5 wins to that, possible WC team

 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

17 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Yea...that was not a good comparison.

Gerrit Cole career: 24.0 bWAR, 3.22 ERA  and we were on suicide watch when he went to NY.

Julio Teheran career: 20.2 bWAR, 3.67 ERA and people are complaining.

Thoughts on the above comparison? My post was in response.

But non traditional stats are hard for some people, so no worries

[ten ocho recon scout]

Now get ryu.

That will give us pyongyang and tehran.

[bloodbrother]

I am not impressed, though this is a better 1yr deal than the Harvey deal last year. Teheran at least isn't completely washed

[hangin n wangin]

8 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Gerrit Cole career: 24.0 bWAR, 3.22 ERA  and we were on suicide watch when he went to NY.

Julio Teheran career: 20.2 bWAR, 3.67 ERA and people are complaining.

Thoughts on the above comparison? My post was in response.

But non traditional stats are hard for some people, so no worries

I know your post was in response. Good post.

I think the comparison originally made between those two was pretty awful. I do not care what Teheran did 5 or 6 years ago. I care more about his recent performance and use that performance to evaluate how he will do in the future.

The recent performance between those two pitchers is not comparable whether we are using advanced stats or traditional stats.

[Tank]

5 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Now get ryu.

That will give us pyongyang and tehran.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

22 minutes ago, Don said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but doesn't the difference between Teheran's XFIP and SIERA suggest a decent amount of ground balls? And if so, maybe having a pretty fantastic infield defense behind him will lead to some good results? Could be a case of Eppler and others looking for value from a pitcher that fits well with our team defensively and may end up with better results because of it. Just my own little positive spin on what I'm seeing there.

His xFIP and SIERA are close, so I'm not sure what you're saying.

Teheran has a career 38% GB rate though. League average in 2019 was 43%, so he's certainly below average in that regard.

I think the positive spin is cheap, durable innings. Which is perfectly valid.

[Tank]

33 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Now get ryu.

That will give us pyongyang and tehran.

@True Grich this is the kind of information we teach our kids in history class...

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Tank

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

FTR, I think this is a decent signing.  But I'm not putting away my rabbit's foot.  

FTR, I think this is a decent signing. But I'm not getting out my rabbit pearl.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 minutes ago, Tank said:

I figure if the yankees are the evil empire, we can at least be the axis of evil empire.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 minute ago, hangin n wangin said:

I think the comparison was pretty awful. I do not care what Teheran did 5 or 6 years ago. I care more about his recent performance and use that performance to evaluate how he will do in the future.

The recent performance between those two pitchers is not comparable whether we are using advanced stats or traditional stats.

We seem to be in agreement then.

The original comparison using ERA and rWAR tried to show Teheran and Cole as roughly similar. My comparison was trying to show the huge talent gap between them.

[AngelsFaninGA]

27 minutes ago, Don said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but doesn't the difference between Teheran's XFIP and SIERA suggest a decent amount of ground balls? And if so, maybe having a pretty fantastic infield defense behind him will lead to some good results? Could be a case of Eppler and others looking for value from a pitcher that fits well with our team defensively and may end up with better results because of it. Just my own little positive spin on what I'm seeing there.

Seems like he's also consistently outpitched his xFIP/SIERA throughout his career. I'd rather have that than the opposite scenario. These advanced stats don't apply well to some pitchers; Skaggs I believe underperformed his xFIP every year.

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Tank said:

I love diversity!

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Then add Rendon and a healthy Upton into the mix.      Maybe currently an 87 win team?   

 

7 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Angels SP WAR top 6 by IP (2019)
Cahill: -0.4
Pena: 0.8
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Barria: -0.5
Suarez: -1.2
Total: 0.8

Angels FA SP WAR (2019) top 6 rotation for 2020
Keuchel: 2.0 (Assuming we get him)
Ohtani (2018): 1.2 (IN 10 STARTS)
Teheran: 2.4
Bundy: 2.3
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Total: 10.0
Total without Keuchel: 8.0

This is a VERY big difference already

I relistened to an old podcast from when Maddon was first signed, and he mentioned with Tampa his first or second year, he wanted to get 9 wins from the offense, 9 wins from the defense and 9 wins from the pitching and they'd be in contention.

I honestly feel that White and Ausmus cost the team at least 7 wins. They were at one point 5 games over .500, and then absolutely fell apart after that..(5 games over was the last game I was at, the Dodgers series where they completed the season sweep).

They were 2-4 after that, then 9 and 18 in August and 7 and 17 in September. Two terrible, awful months. Bad Bad Bad Coaching.

I think before any other move was made this offseason, Maddon and Callaway pushed them to 77-85. With exactly the same team. Then they got rid of Mr. Garcia, who I feel allowed almost all of his inherited runners to score, even though it was only 42%. I think that adds some wins. I also feel like they kept Trout out for Sept, after he went down, because the season was essentially over. He'd have added a win or two if he'd been in there.

Then they added Dylan Bundy, (and later Julio Teheran) both of whom eat innings, and go deeper into games than pretty much every Angels starter did in 2019. I feel like that's 2-4 wins added. Adding Ohtani back into the rotation as a starter, pretty much adds 2-4 wins, as in 10 games he would've been a 1.2 WAR pitcher, but if he had managed say 25, that turns into a 3 WAR guy.

Then you take Anthony Rendon and put him after Trout (or possibly in front of?) anyway...it's a huge add.

This team right now, without Keuchel or a solid C..could win 90 games. Add to that Houston losing Cole, Miley, and the Trash Can, they will regress.

Add another starter, Adell breaks out, some other people step up or get back to what they'd done in previous seasons, plus adding a solid catcher.. This team could win the division.

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I like the deal, but we are still missing that difference maker. Hopefully that's on deck.

This allows us to take a risk on Ryu, but Im still worried. Keuchal is a pretty safe bet to be good for us, even if he lacks the upside of Ryu. You gotta figure Ryu is gona miss significant chunks of time and this team is gona have to figure out how to work without him. Is the team good enough with Keuchal to not need the variance that Ryu brings?

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I like the deal, but we are still missing that difference maker. Hopefully that's on deck.

This allows us to take a risk on Ryu, but Im still worry. Keuchal is a pretty safe bet to be good for us, even if he lacks the upside of Ryu. You gotta figure Ryu is gona miss significant chunks of time and this team is gona have to figure out how to work without him. Is the team good enough with Keuchal to not need the variance that Ryu brings?

To the last point, I think if we save a few bucks by going the keuchal route, and use it to acquire some more pen help, I think it is.

[rafibomb]

59 minutes ago, Lou said:

in the last few days, there have been sightings of @xboom28x, @Coachbulldog and @Angels Never Die.

we're getting the band back together!

ok, who else has gone missing?

Borenstein's brother

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Angels SP WAR top 6 by IP (2019)
Cahill: -0.4
Pena: 0.8
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Barria: -0.5
Suarez: -1.2
Total: 0.8

Angels FA SP WAR (2019) top 6 rotation for 2020
Keuchel: 2.0 (Assuming we get him)
Ohtani (2018): 1.2 
Teheran: 2.4
Bundy: 2.3
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Total: 10.0
Total without Keuchel: 8.0

This is a VERY big difference already

The Steamer projections for most of the staff are better than last year's results...

Using fWAR

Heaney - 3.0 
Ohtani -- 2.2
Bundy -- 2.3
Canning - 1.8
Sandoval - 1.2
Teheran - 0.5

They are sitting at 11.0 fWAR without anyone else...

Ryu 2.9 or Keuchel  2.6 puts them in the upper third for SPs
 

[AngelsFaninGA]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Steamer projections for most of the staff are better than last year's results...

Using fWAR

Heaney - 3.0 
Ohtani -- 2.2
Bundy -- 2.3
Canning - 1.8
Sandoval - 1.2
Teheran - 0.5

They are sitting at 11.0 fWAR without anyone else...

Ryu 2.9 or Keuchel  2.6 puts them in the upper third for SPs
 

Lol @ Heaney being projected higher than anyone else mentioned

[failos]

16 minutes ago, Tank said:

Fantastic.

[failos]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

in the last few days, there have been sightings of @xboom28x, @Coachbulldog and @Angels Never Die.

we're getting the band back together!

ok, who else has gone missing?

@laagamer