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Angels sign Julio Teheran (1 year, $9 million)

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8 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'll change my feelings of "giddy" to "optimistic" if we get Ryu or Keuchel.

I'd then like a trade for Contreras.

I’d be optimistic if we get Ryu or Keuchel and sign a catcher, holding the prospects for the trade deadline.  If things do south for the season Eppler can do what he was hoping to in 2019, trade off two or three expiring contracts (Simmons, La Stella, Teheran) to solidify the farm.  Deal for an ace next winter.

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Idk why people are relying so heavily on ERA in this discussion. I'm surprised nobody has brought up pitcher wins.

Past ERA isn't that good of a predictor of future ERA. Other stats have been shown to be better, such as xFIP and SIERA.

Teheran xFIP SIERA

2017 4.96 4.89

2018 4.72 4.67

2019 5.26 5.11

Career 4.37 4.27

Cole xFIP SIERA

2017 3.81 3.97

2018 3.04 2.91

2019 2.48 2.62

Career 3.22 3.31

Teheran fWAR 13.7

Cole fWAR 28.8

Only bringing up Cole because of the earlier comparison people loved, but if you actually dig past the surface, it's clear as day.

Anyway, $9 million for an innings eater isn't terrible value, especially given recent health struggles in rotation. It's like Cahill again, but with a better health history.

I think they get one more starter. Ryu/Keuchel.

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Last year, Barria, Suarez, Cahill and Harvey combined to give up 238 earned runs in about 320 innings. Bundy and Teheran, by contrast, gave up 160 across almost 340 innings.

The 80 run differential equates to a roughly 7 to 8 win swing. 

Over simplified, I realize but one could argue that we picked up 7-8 wins, on paper, for about 14 mil and a few prospects unlikely to ever crack the bigs.

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2 minutes ago, Revad said:

I’d be optimistic if we get Ryu or Keuchel and sign a catcher, holding the prospects for the trade deadline.  If things do south for the season Eppler can do what he was hoping to in 2019, trade off two or three expiring contracts (Simmons, La Stella, Teheran) to solidify the farm.  Deal for an ace next winter.

Good point. Two things I think. Simmons will be traded or not offered a new contract if they plan on keeping Rengifo and Fletcher has a solid year.

Once Rengifo is traded then I think he gets a contract extension which i'm 50/50 about. 

I think Fletcher is more than capable of handling SS in the future and that can save $15M+ for the Angels for them to make a run at another starter next offseason. 

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15 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Idk why people are relying so heavily on ERA in this discussion. I'm surprised nobody has brought up pitcher wins.

Past ERA isn't that good of a predictor of future ERA. Other stats have been shown to be better, such as xFIP and SIERA.

Teheran xFIP SIERA

2017 4.96 4.89

2018 4.72 4.67

2019 5.26 5.11

Career 4.37 4.27

Cole xFIP SIERA

2017 3.81 3.97

2018 3.04 2.91

2019 2.48 2.62

Career 3.22 3.31

Teheran fWAR 13.7

Cole fWAR 28.8

Only bringing up Cole because of the earlier comparison people loved, but if you actually dig past the surface, it's clear as day.

Anyway, $9 million for an innings eater isn't terrible value, especially given recent health struggles in rotation. It's like Cahill again, but with a better health history.

I think they get one more starter. Ryu/Keuchel.

Yea...that was not a good comparison.

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8 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Idk why people are relying so heavily on ERA in this discussion. I'm surprised nobody has brought up pitcher wins.

Past ERA isn't that good of a predictor of future ERA. Other stats have been shown to be better, such as xFIP and SIERA.

Teheran xFIP SIERA

2017 4.96 4.89

2018 4.72 4.67

2019 5.26 5.11

Career 4.37 4.27

Cole xFIP SIERA

2017 3.81 3.97

2018 3.04 2.91

2019 2.48 2.62

Career 3.22 3.31

Teheran fWAR 13.7

Cole fWAR 28.8

Only bringing up Cole because of the earlier comparison people loved, but if you actually dig past the surface, it's clear as day.

Anyway, $9 million for an innings eater isn't terrible value, especially given recent health struggles in rotation. It's like Cahill again, but with a better health history.

I think they get one more starter. Ryu/Keuchel.

 
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Correct me if I'm wrong here, but doesn't the difference between Teheran's XFIP and SIERA suggest a decent amount of ground balls? And if so, maybe having a pretty fantastic infield defense behind him will lead to some good results? Could be a case of Eppler and others looking for value from a pitcher that fits well with our team defensively and may end up with better results because of it. Just my own little positive spin on what I'm seeing there.

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Angels SP WAR top 6 by IP (2019)
Cahill: -0.4
Pena: 0.8
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Barria: -0.5
Suarez: -1.2
Total: 0.8

Angels FA SP WAR (2019) top 6 rotation for 2020
Keuchel: 2.0 (Assuming we get him)
Ohtani (2018): 1.2 
Teheran: 2.4
Bundy: 2.3
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Total: 10.0
Total without Keuchel: 8.0

This is a VERY big difference already

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