Angels sign Julio Teheran (1 year, $9 million)

[angelsnationtalk]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

 

I relistened to an old podcast from when Maddon was first signed, and he mentioned with Tampa his first or second year, he wanted to get 9 wins from the offense, 9 wins from the defense and 9 wins from the pitching and they'd be in contention.

I honestly feel that White and Ausmus cost the team at least 7 wins. They were at one point 5 games over .500, and then absolutely fell apart after that..(5 games over was the last game I was at, the Dodgers series where they completed the season sweep).

They were 2-4 after that, then 9 and 18 in August and 7 and 17 in September. Two terrible, awful months. Bad Bad Bad Coaching.

I think before any other move was made this offseason, Maddon and Callaway pushed them to 77-85. With exactly the same team. Then they got rid of Mr. Garcia, who I feel allowed almost all of his inherited runners to score, even though it was only 42%. I think that adds some wins. I also feel like they kept Trout out for Sept, after he went down, because the season was essentially over. He'd have added a win or two if he'd been in there.

Then they added Dylan Bundy, (and later Julio Teheran) both of whom eat innings, and go deeper into games than pretty much every Angels starter did in 2019. I feel like that's 2-4 wins added. Adding Ohtani back into the rotation as a starter, pretty much adds 2-4 wins, as in 10 games he would've been a 1.2 WAR pitcher, but if he had managed say 25, that turns into a 3 WAR guy.

Then you take Anthony Rendon and put him after Trout (or possibly in front of?) anyway...it's a huge add.

This team right now, without Keuchel or a solid C..could win 90 games. Add to that Houston losing Cole, Miley, and the Trash Can, they will regress.

Add another starter, Adell breaks out, some other people step up or get back to what they'd done in previous seasons, plus adding a solid catcher.. This team could win the division.

 

Although it's a very optimistic look, I totally agree. We have to keep in mind that a healthy year from Trout, Upton, Simmons, LaStella, Canning, Heaney and Ohtani could change this team alone. Add in Maddon/Callaway and then Rendon, Teheran, Bundy and possibly Keuchel and this could be a very good team without giving away any prospects. 

Houston did get worse, but they are still a VERY good team and Texas/Oakland will be better. AL West will be a tough division this year.

[tchula]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

Hogwash.  The Angels can still afford Keuchel or Ryu and the defense-minded catcher they want.  If the Angels are in the hunt for the division/playoffs come the trade deadline, Arte would be willing to make a trade that takes him over the luxury tax.

 

 

Hey, I am not advocating it, but this is what I believe to be true.  I hope I am wrong and would love to bring in Keuchel (I've been on the sign Keuchel bandwagon since July when I argued he was a good pick up for the Braves).  But, without him, I believe we are a 90 win team already.  I think between Ohtani coming back (120 innings) and the 320 innings between Tehran and Bundy we will be dramatically improved.  Now, we aren't built for the playoffs and will be paring a #4 against a #1 or #2 every game, but we are built currently for a wildcard run, especially with the inclusion of Rendon.  I also believe if we use a designated starter for both Tehran and Bundy we could even improve upon last year's numbers for both of them.  

[Lou]

26 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

But non traditional stats are hard for some people

[tchula]

41 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Angels SP WAR top 6 by IP (2019)
Cahill: -0.4
Pena: 0.8
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Barria: -0.5
Suarez: -1.2
Total: 0.8

Angels FA SP WAR (2019) top 6 rotation for 2020
Keuchel: 2.0 (Assuming we get him)
Ohtani (2018): 1.2 
Teheran: 2.4
Bundy: 2.3
Heaney: 1.0
Canning: 1.1
Total: 10.0
Total without Keuchel: 8.0

This is a VERY big difference already

I would also add a +2 WAR for a healthy Upton, a +6 WAR for Rendon, and a +2 WAR for Buttrey and Middleton collectively.  I think we have a 90 win team without Keuchel and a 93-95 win team with Keuchel.  

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Lol @ Heaney being projected higher than anyone else mentioned

Yeah, it seems optimistic but at least it's an outside source and those numbers are essentially what he put up in 2018.   So, it's not like it's completely out of line with anything he's ever done.

[goldenGlove]

That Fangraphs article about Teheran's sinker had Robles and Justin Anderson as having the 2 most valuable sinkers in the league and Teheran as 8th. He seems to fit right in with the philosophy of how the pitchers will work with the defense. I think it's a good move and they must have identified this same information about his sinker needing to be a focus.

One of Ryu/Keuchel seems too obvious to not sign given this philosophy. Although, I really do hope that signing one of those guys and Julio will open the door for some of the young arms to be moved with one of Marsh/Adams for an ace. Would love one of the Mets arms

[Lou]

2 hours ago, Lou said:

how many pages before 2:00pm?

9.5

@Glen is a genious

[the dude abides]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

in the last few days, there have been sightings of @xboom28x, @Coachbulldog and @Angels Never Die.

we're getting the band back together!

ok, who else has gone missing?

@InsideThePark, @TobiasFunke, @HaloMagic

[angelsnationtalk]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Steamer projections for most of the staff are better than last year's results...

Using fWAR

Heaney - 3.0 
Ohtani -- 2.2
Bundy -- 2.3
Canning - 1.8
Sandoval - 1.2
Teheran - 0.5

They are sitting at 11.0 fWAR without anyone else...

Ryu 2.9 or Keuchel  2.6 puts them in the upper third for SPs
 

I based mine off last year's numbers. I'm surprised Teheran is only projected for 05 WAR. If Bundy is 2.3 then I'd honestly put Teheran at around 2.0.
Yep, will be a fun team to watch if we add Keuchel.

[the dude abides]

55 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Hot Damn?     Halo?

Hot Damn has been on recently.

Also, isn't Halo "ScotT"?

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

So, we gave Cahill's Dinero to Teheran!!!

 

So, does that mean Clay Buchholz is going to get Harvey's?...

 

Great signing! Too much for someone who was an Arb cut! We gave a dude who was cut an 8M raise over last year! Screams overpay.

[Ariamus]

9 minutes ago, tchula said:

I would also add a +2 WAR for a healthy Upton, a +6 WAR for Rendon, and a +2 WAR for Buttrey and Middleton collectively.  I think we have a 90 win team without Keuchel and a 93-95 win team with Keuchel.  

93-95 is a little optimistic...it'd mean everything breaks our way. i.e. the things we take as givens (Rendon & Trout) stay that way. It'd also mean the things we are hopeful for (bounce-back years from Upton, Simmons, Ohtani, Adell is at least as productive as Calhoun, and Teheran and Bundy are indeed diamonds in the rough) go the way we hope.

But I do like where your mind is... 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I based mine off last year's numbers. I'm surprised Teheran is only projected for 05 WAR. If Bundy is 2.3 then I'd honestly put Teheran at around 2.0.
Yep, will be a fun team to watch if we add Keuchel.

His WAR is low because his projection is kinda bleak.   He's seen his walk rate almost double in the last few years and his ERA has been on the rise... so, their algorithm likely views him as a player mired in decline.  He might be, or he might be a guy that needs to simply reinvent himself as a sinkerballer.

[Roy Hobbs]

7 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

So, we gave Cahill's Dinero to Teheran!!!

 

So, does that mean Clay Buchholz is going to get Harvey's?...

 

Great signing! Too much for someone who was an Arb cut! We gave a dude who was cut an 8M raise over last year! Screams overpay.

You're slipping Slappy, Teheran made 11.1 million last year and he wasn't an arb cut.He had a 12 million option which the Braves declined and bought him out for 1 million.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

23 minutes ago, Lou said:

Not everyone can have math or stats degree though

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

14 minutes ago, Roy Hobbs said:

You're slipping Slappy, Teheran made 11.1 million last year and he wasn't an arb cut.He had a 12 million option which the Braves declined and bought him out for 1 million.

Looked up on spotrac....in any case Hobbs the Braves gave him 1M to walk away and we gave him 9M to come here!.... hadn't heard much rumbling going on about him on MLB trade rumors... we over paid. If the Braves weren't going to pay him 12M but we will pay him 3/4's of that I still feel it's an overpay. 

[ettin]

33 minutes ago, failos said:

@laagamer

@halothunder

@lifetime

Shall I go on?

[Lou]

21 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

So, we gave Cahill's Dinero to Teheran!!!

 

So, does that mean Clay Buchholz is going to get Harvey's?...

 

Great signing! Too much for someone who was an Arb cut! We gave a dude who was cut an 8M raise over last year! Screams overpay.

MLBTR predicted he would sign for 2/$18M

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

@halothunder

@lifetime

Shall I go on?

And here I thought you were about to impart some of that world class, unequaled ettin wisdom about the deal

What a let down.

[the dude abides]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

in the last few days, there have been sightings of @xboom28x, @Coachbulldog and @Angels Never Die.

we're getting the band back together!

ok, who else has gone missing?

@mopuddin, @yogurtpooh, @WeatherWonk  

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Not everyone can have math or stats degree though

true, but we get laid. 

by women. 

[T.G.]

Good grief... it's like some of you are trying to summon Beatlejuice.

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, ettin said:

@halothunder

@lifetime

Shall I go on?

I wouldn't mind halothunder during the offseason

[Roy Hobbs]

9 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Looked up on spotrac....

Still wrong, check the career earnings part of that.That million is this years buyout.

[Angel Oracle]

30 minutes ago, the dude abides said:

Hot Damn has been on recently.

Also, isn't Halo "ScotT"?

I do remember a post or two from HD in recent times.

In best Fonz, regarding Halo being ScotT, "I knew that."      I remember that Denise (GlausGirl) would refer to ScotT as Line.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Angel Oracle