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It's possible the Angels pitching situation isn't as dire as we make it to be...


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outside of the rendon signing, which is awesome, this offseason has been shit. i know they're going to trade marsh, and that's going to piss me off.

i guess i'm pulling for us to sign ryu, because he's the only pitcher that actually pitches like a number one. everybody else is lesser in quality. sign ryu and pray for health, i guess.

trading marsh is going to be a mistake. i'm tired of repeating it, but that's your all star outfield.

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I got as far as the post about rose colored glasses before I quit reading the responses...    So...  rather than offer any opinion -- here are the Steamer projections for some of pitchers the Ang

Looking at the 2015 draft and filtering out only pitching, Canning is only one of four other pitchers to face MLB hitting. Only one pitcher picked ahead of him, the #5 pick Kyle Wright, got 4 starts a

You gotta remember, Eppler almost never paints himself into a corner with anything definitive. It’s always “possibly” or “could” or “maybe” or “we’ll be looking.” Back at the GM Meetings he said

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10 hours ago, Second Base said:

You know the narrative every bit as well as I do, so I won't waste your time rehashing it. Just to sum it up, the Angels pitching in 2019 was either the worst, or the second worst in baseball, depending on what you're looking at. 

But looking over things, the situation may not be as dire as we, myself included, have made it out to be. Consider the following points...

I got as far as the post about rose colored glasses before I quit reading the responses...   

So...  rather than offer any opinion -- here are the Steamer projections for some of pitchers the Angels "lost out"on beyond the big two...

Zack Wheeler - 189 IP,   4.14 ERA,  4.17 FIP,   4.09 xFIP,  3.3 fWAR  23 Mil AAV
M Bumgarner- 199 IP,   4.52 ERA,  4.43 FIP,   4.54 xFIP.  2.5 fWAR  17 Mil AAV
Cole  Hamels - 164 IP,  4.27 ERA,  4.20 FIP,   4.29 xFIP,  2.3 fWAR   18 Mil AAV
Tanner Roark - 181 IP,  5.16 ERA,   5.09 FIP,  5.04 xFIP,  1.3 fWAR   12 Mil AAV
Jordan Lyles -  142 IP,   5.21 ERA,   5.10 FIP,  5.09 xFIP.  1.3 fWAR   8 Mil  AAV
Kyle   Gibson -  174 IP,  4.42 ERA,  4.40 FIP,   4.31 xFIP,   2.9 fWAR  9.3 M AAV
Mike P ineda -  129 IP,   4.65 ERA,  4.54 FIP,  4.48 xFIP,   1.7 fWAR   7.6 M AAV

Now some of the guys still available ....

Dallas Keuchel- 188 IP,  4.30 ERA, 4.20 FIP,  4.23 xFIP,  2.6fWAR
Hyun-Jin Ryu -- 177 IP,  4.04 ERA, 4.08 FIP.  4.10 xFIP. 2.9 fWAR
Wade    Miley -- 156 IP,  4.53  ERA, 4.64 FIP,  4.66 xFIP. 1.7 fWAR
Gio Gonzalez -- 142 IP,  4.69 ERA, 4.74 FIP,  4.93 xFIP,  1.5 fWAR

Lastly -- the Angels internal options...

Andr Heaney -  180 IP,   3.99 ERA. 4.11 FIP,  4.15 xFIP,   3.0 fWAR  
Dylan Bundy - 180 IP,    4.45 ERA, 4.52 FIP,  4.63 xFIP,   2.3 fWAR 
Sho Ohtani ---  110 IP,   3,72 ERA, 3,78 FIP,   3.93 xFIP,   2.2 fWAR
Grif Canning -  147 IP,  4.34 ERA, 4.40 FIP,   4.53 xFIP,   1.8 fWAR
Pat Sandoval - 121 IP,  4.36 ERA, 4.63, FIP,  4.71 xFIP,   1.2 fWAR

People can dismiss the projections like always, they are nothing more than educated guesses using peripheral data, past performance and historical aging curves...  But when it's all said and done this is about as unbiased as it gets and the results are likely going to surprise people..

Two of the better options are still out there...  

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9 hours ago, Angels_Make_Me_Drink said:

But that should have nothing to do with it, the pitching market is drying up. Once Keuchel and Ryu are off the board, the FA well is dry unless you're hoping to find a needle in a haystack. And the trade market is already selling high, its going to get worse once the FA market is dry. And then what? We're sitting here in February with our dicks in our hands and terrible SP. 

Keuchel and Ryu are not off the board and I don't think the trade market is going to get worse.

You're asking "then what" for a hypothetical situation and I don't think the Angels are there yet.

I'd rather not panic unless there is an actual reason to do so.

Either you trust Eppler or you don't.  I'm willing to trust him at this point.

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9 hours ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

Upton has 3 more years with us. He is only 32. Next season, he will hit his 300th home run.

Am I missing something? Is Marsh supposed to play in Salt Lake for three more years before he gets called up? Is that the plan?

Why exactly can't we trade Marsh for starting pitching, as in the Kluber deal that we just passed up?

No, Marsh is going to play in Salt Lake this season, take over for Goodwin as the 4th outfielder in 2021 while Upton transitions to DH and 1st base. By 2022 the outfield will be Marsh, Trout & Adell. That's called the long game plan not, what is happening at this very moment. 

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10 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

Why can't Eppler package a bunch of position players not named Adell for a young SP?  Then sign Dallas or Ryu or both? I mean, if Adell is the greatest thing ever sure fire bona fide guaranteed to be amazing, we don't need Marsh and all the others. Get some GOOD FREAKING pitchers to go along with the Rendon signing and we can actually contend in the division.

Lame

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11 hours ago, Second Base said:

I mean yes, he took a chance in Canning, but Canning should've been drafted in the first half of the first round. Eppler didn't invest in Canning the way you'd typically need to invest in order to acquire a prospect of his caliber. 

Eppler's regime has been very hesitant to allocate significant resources on one single pitching prospect with hype.

Looking at the 2015 draft and filtering out only pitching, Canning is only one of four other pitchers to face MLB hitting. Only one pitcher picked ahead of him, the #5 pick Kyle Wright, got 4 starts and logged a 9.72 era in that role. That puts 20 pitchers picked before Canning that have not graduated to the big leagues, some because they are too young, some because they aren't ready even being college picks. The three other pitchers picked after Canning were not impressive in their MLB debut.

Put this in perspective. Canning in his rookie season, without a viable pitching coach, logged 17 starts and even with trash can banging competition produced at essentially league average. You would have to be a pretty stubborn mule to think there is no room for improvement, or a considerable amount of ceiling yet to be reached. And the same can be said for his younger counterparts.

Yes, the Angels need another quality starter. They don't necessarily need two because at some point you have to let the youth movement rise up, make their mistakes and become real MLB quality pitchers instead of just prospects. I know, it's a lot easier to project an established pitcher but then again there is no further upside to a Dallas Kueuchel, he is what he is and will do nothing more than decline from this point forward. 

Scotty is right, it isn't as dismall as the talking heads have been promoting because they are selling players already on the market. They don't know prospects all that well so a free agent solution is easier to make a case for. So what you read or hear is from a narrow perspective and also from mouthpieces like Heyman that are tied to Boras as his publicity agent. It's slanted, some true, some an agenda.

The purpose of this message board is to talk about these subjects, argue a bit but in the end I hope none of you think any one of the talking heads could be a relevant GM and make a series of moves that can be economically feasible for more than the one season they are discusssing. They have no responsibility to a 5-10 year plan. 

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10 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Meh. We say this same thing every year and then by July half the pitchers are injured and the other half are struggling. I'll believe it when I see it. So far addressing pitching internally and complementing the staff with reclamation projects has failed.

Trout and Rendon had better combine for 300 RBI this year, because our rotation of five #4 starters are going to get shelled.

edit: okay, Ohtani is better than a #4, assuming he gets through the season uninjured.

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6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Obviously it will fail every year.

If we don't do anything about it then it likely will. Just hoping for a correction on the logic of "it's gotta get better, right?" is exactly what got us into this mess. Beyond Canning and Ohtani there's not much there and both of those guys are injury concerns. 

We'll probably have this same discussion again next year.

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I also don't think it would be a disaster if they only get one more pitcher over the off-season (Keuchel or Ryu). Things can happen during the season and maintaining flexibility will put the Angels in a position to capitalize on that. 

There's definitely some downside, a full season of a good player is better than half a season of a better player. But there will be teams who were trying to compete who may be willing to unload a good pitcher as a straight salary dump if they are out of the race. Being able to take on $15 million in June or July may be more advantageous than having an extra half season of Ryu or Keuchel.

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48 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Looking at the 2015 draft and filtering out only pitching, Canning is only one of four other pitchers to face MLB hitting. Only one pitcher picked ahead of him, the #5 pick Kyle Wright, got 4 starts and logged a 9.72 era in that role. That puts 20 pitchers picked before Canning that have not graduated to the big leagues, some because they are too young, some because they aren't ready even being college picks. The three other pitchers picked after Canning were not impressive in their MLB debut.

Put this in perspective. Canning in his rookie season, without a viable pitching coach, logged 17 starts and even with trash can banging competition produced at essentially league average. You would have to be a pretty stubborn mule to think there is no room for improvement, or a considerable amount of ceiling yet to be reached. And the same can be said for his younger counterparts.

Yes, the Angels need another quality starter. They don't necessarily need two because at some point you have to let the youth movement rise up, make their mistakes and become real MLB quality pitchers instead of just prospects. I know, it's a lot easier to project an established pitcher but then again there is no further upside to a Dallas Kueuchel, he is what he is and will do nothing more than decline from this point forward. 

Scotty is right, it isn't as dismall as the talking heads have been promoting because they are selling players already on the market. They don't know prospects all that well so a free agent solution is easier to make a case for. So what you read or hear is from a narrow perspective and also from mouthpieces like Heyman that are tied to Boras as his publicity agent. It's slanted, some true, some an agenda.

The purpose of this message board is to talk about these subjects, argue a bit but in the end I hope none of you think any one of the talking heads could be a relevant GM and make a series of moves that can be economically feasible for more than the one season they are discusssing. They have no responsibility to a 5-10 year plan. 

Much appreciate your sane outlook within all the screaming. Canning, Ohtani, Heaney and all other returning pitchers will benefit from Madden/Callaway, improved infield defense and a deeper offensive lineup. Would like Ryu if # of years of contract is 3. Not sure about Keuchel...

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GMs have a responsibility to a 5 to 10 year plan. I agree. The Angels GMs have failed for 5 to 10 years. Just think Cozart.  Not getting the best player in baseball to the postseason is a huge failure. What year of the 5 to 10 year plan are the Angels in?  What year does Mike Trout play in the postseason?  

"I do think by the end of this week, we'll have signed either Ryu or Keuchel. "

Should have signed both of them yesterday and be active in the trade market.  Championships are won with pitching not SSs or prospects.     

Rendon deal was great now let's finish it up by signing  SPs TODAY!

 Wouldn't a ALC MVP award THIS YEAR for Mike Trout be nice?

is it likely the Angels could be working on a trade package for someone whose name isn't really out there?

Hope so.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Second Base said:

You know the narrative every bit as well as I do, so I won't waste your time rehashing it. Just to sum it up, the Angels pitching in 2019 was either the worst, or the second worst in baseball, depending on what you're looking at. 

But looking over things, the situation may not be as dire as we, myself included, have made it out to be. Consider the following points...

1. The Angels starting pitchers were among the youngest in baseball. Griffin Canning was the elder statesman at 23 years old. Patrick Sandoval and Jaime Barria were just 22. Jose Suarez was 21. It would be an absolute shock if all for it these guys didn't get better. 

2. There's some projection in that group of starters. We'll start with Canning, here was a top 100 prospect no matter who you ask. One of the best SP in college baseball gets drafted and every single offering takes a giant leap forward in it's quality. Nobody believes he'll be anything less than a mid rotation starter. Patrick Sandoval is a tall lefty that's throwing in the mid-90's and posted an ERA of 3.00 in A Ball, 2.23 in Advanced A Ball, and 2.50 in AA. The ERA ballooned in AAA Salt Lake but was still firmly better than the league average in the PCL. Jose Suarez is another lefty that can reach the mid-90's and absolutely dominated Advanced A Ball and AA, at the tender age of 20. Jaime Barria posted a 3.41 ERA across 130 major league innings at age 21. This was a natural extension of the dominance he displayed at every stop in the minors. 

Barria, Suarez and Sandoval were seen at worst, as back of the rotation starters. 

3. Shohei is back. Even if you believe that he isn't better than what he showed in his 10 starts from 2018, that's still a strikeout heavy mid rotation starter you're getting. 

4. Andrew Heaney is better than we thought. Before last year, Heaney was never bad as much as he was injured. When he was healthy, he was a solid #3/4 starter. And that fit the bill. Heaney was a former first round pick and elite LHP prospect. Quality was never in question. Then last year happened. And when we look at the underlying numbers we aren't really sure the cause, outside of the ball simply left the yard a lot more. But it did for everybody. The quality and location of Heaney's offerings remained consistent. A bounce back here looks downright likely.

5. Dylan Bundy might be one of the better buy low acquisitions of the Winter. If nothing else, you know you're going to get innings from him. But the long ball plagued him last year. Moving out of Baltimore, out of the AL East, to Anaheim, with an elite defensive unit behind him could allow Bundy to suppress runs more than he's ever done in his career. The promise of being an ace has since passed with the velocity. But there is reason to believe he could be more than a serviceable 5th starter. 

6. Calloway. He's not magic, but he is good at what he does. Every starter will get better after having an actual pitching coach work with them. 

-----

If all this works out on the Angels favor, Ohtani would be an ace, Canning a mid rotation starter, with Heaney, Bundy, Sandoval, Barria and Suarez all being decent #4 starters.

It requires a lot to go the Angels way, and I'm not advocating they don't make any acquisitions. But I am saying, it's possible the Angels would still be a competitive team without the acquisitions that we all know are coming.

There is a big assumption with all this, and it's our current 5 pitchers all remain healthy.  I know the Angels have been snake bit, but honestly, not many five man rotations last an entire year.  My biggest concerns are with Canning.  He was shut down due to forearm tightness at the end of the year.  That scares the shit out me. But, I do agree in principle with your post that our situation isn't quite as dire as we assume.  Ohtani is a true #1, Canning can be a #3, 2018 Heaney was very solid, Bundy is a workhorse, and Sandoval has some upside.  We still have one hell of a bullpen, we have better coaches (we poorly mismanaged the staff last year), I am curious to see if Sandoval takes a big step and expect he'll have a break out year.  Also, let's see how Calloway manages Suarez who was called up way to early.  

I hope we sign Keuchel because he is a ground ball pitcher,  had a relative light year last year compared to his prior two, and he's consistent.  Plus, he'll be much cheaper than Ryu, who to me has just a little more upside, but way too many question marks.  

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