Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

How do YOU value these prospects and young players


Stradling

Recommended Posts

Fun exercise, but really, it’s not about how we value them but how other teams value them. 

Luis Rengifo is a lot more valuable to the Cubs or Indians for one of their arms or Kluber than he is to the Red Sox or Rockies for Price or Gray. 

Patrick Sandoval or Jose Suarez might be worth more to the Tigers than Barria or even Canning, simply because they’re very well-stocked with right-handed pitching prospects. 

Thaiss, Walsh, Rojas, and Ward might be more valuable to the Marlins in a Caleb Smith deal because they have basically nothing at corner infield, and spent most of ‘19 playing catchers and middle infielders at those positions A+ through AAA. 

And we already saw this with Baltimore - a team with a totally barren system and in a deep rebuild may place more value in quantity over quality and jump at the chance to acquire a trio of guys like Ortega, Pina, Madero instead of one Suarez. Teams like Pittsburgh, Toronto, Kansas City. 

It goes beyond prospects too - teams like Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, Oakland, Arizona they have to virtually keep their rosters in constant flux with payroll limitations or immediate playoff hopes, they might value someone like Barria more than Suarez since he’s more tested, or someone even like Goodwin over Adams or even Marsh, as he’s a cheap, actualized productive player with control that can step onto their roster and into a need right away, such as a trade for Robbie Ray or Anthony DeSclafani.

Edited by totdprods
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All that said, I have a different way of valuing them, and that’s by what percent of value a prospect makes up in a potential deal. 

  • 75% - 100%: Fletcher, Canning, Adell
  • 60% - 75%: Marsh, Sandoval, Suarez, Rengifo
  • 50% - 60%: Adams, Barria, Thaiss, Jones, Yan, Soriano
  • 25% - 50%: Pretty much any other ~Top 30 prospect, Jackson, Paris, C-Rod, Ward, Hermosillo, Rojas, Madero, etc. 
  • 0% - 25%: Any minor leaguer with a strong skill or tick of upside, lotto ticket variety, like a Franklin Torres or Torii Hunter or Cristopher Molina

Fletcher, Canning, and Adell in that 75%+ tier means that I’m dealing them only if it’s basically the only real player given up, almost a one-for-one, maybe at most a 0-25% lotto ticket thrown in, and maybe with the Angels receiving more than one player. Who fits that? Not many players. This is in line with my above post about how this thread is thinking of it backwards a bit. Reverse engineer the trade. What would the Cubs or Indians have to offer us to get a Griffin Canning or David Fletcher? Would you do Fletcher and Hunter for Contreras or Hendricks? Would you part with Canning straight up for Kluber? No? Fletcher? It’s hard to part with them, but if one player makes up almost all of the spent value for a player of that Kluber or Contreras, yeah, I think I’d do that, at least if it were Fletcher. It’s easier to consider. Canning probably not. Not sure who I’d deal Canning for in a deal like that to be honest. 

Edited by totdprods
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

I love fletcher as much as anyone else but does he really have that much value across the league?

To some teams he might. Lots of control, safe skill set, cheap cost, can play a number of positions, can lead-off. Some teams will be all about that. Other teams might see a league average UT IF with great defense. 

There’s some teams that might see some possibility of developing some above-average if not elite OBP or even power numbers - maybe not via HR, but there could be a slight chance in the right ballpark he could see an Altuve-esque pop in 2B/HR. 

The Cubs have tight payroll and need for a lead-off hitter and 2B. Fletcher could be worth a ton to them. Good ballpark for someone that makes as much contact as he does too. 

Edited by totdprods
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Stax said:

Jackson looks impressive with all the home runs, but I do not think he is going to hit much better than .250. Trade him if you can something of value.

not yet.  If he's going to stall it will be after A+.  Let him get another year or two to let his stock rise and then trade him at peak value.  Trading a guy like that right now doesn't likely optimize his value.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I agree with this.

The FA crop at this point is meh. But id rather spend money on average but past prime like a bumgarner or whoever, than to trade what little we have for nothing special.

Im fine moving a few guys for a 3. A solid 3. If the guys we trade arent crucial. If we include marsh, or fletcher etc, it better be for something good. Real good.

If real good for that price isnt there, overspend on whatevers FAs, and wait until a better deal comes along at the deadline, next winter, etc.

I mentioned in another thread. And this will immediately invite ridicule from some on here. But trout is here for.... ever. Ohtani is still here for a bit. Now rendon. Adell is almost here....

..... we dont need to fix it all this year. Landing cole would have changed that. But id rather not "force" a "decent"  move if we can position ourselves for a good one down the road.

I actually didn't agree so much with @Dtwncbad's post but I agree with yours.  If you're gonna spend from the Marsh, Fletcher tier, you better be getting someone who's not 34 and has more than 2 years of control with front of the rotation upside.  Not ace level because that would cost you Adell.  

@totdprods also nailed it.  Different teams have different needs.  Cleveland is likely looking for that major league ready player.  Teams in rebuild mode don't care if the package includes a major league ready player.  They're looking for as much value as they can get.  If the O's get a solid starter and major league reliever out of the Bundy trade, then it's a win for them.  To certain teams, Rengifo might have as much value as Marsh and more than Adams.  Luis had a 1.6 bWAR season at age 22 and has upside for a lot more.  

There's a huge difference between prospect ranking and trade value.  They are far from one on the same.  Adams has way more potential future value than Luis but the latter is likely a more valuable trade piece right now.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...