Bumgarner, Ryu & Bundy or Cole/Strasburg & Bundy?

[Claude]

1 minute ago, SoPas Angel said:

He'll be 33 when the season starts, doesn't stay in shape, and put up his best season in his contract year. All of that worries me. 

Yes but I like 3 guys competing to be an Ace rather than 3 guys trying their luck at MLB  

[Halodays]

If they want to be instant playoff contenders then it's Cole and Strasburg. More likely though it's Cole or Strasburg and another trade for a starter.

[jsnpritchett]

12 minutes ago, Jason said:

Are we sure about? He was good, not great, his first year and is coming off of TJ surgery. I think he's a wild card right now. 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

 

I'm not sure it's possible in today's environment.  If you look at the teams who have been in the World Series lately, 2019: Astros (Cole, Verlander, Greinke) vs Nationals (Scherzer, Strasburg), 2018: Dodgers (Kershaw) vs Red Sox (Sale), 2017: Dodgers (Kershaw, Darvish) vs Astros (Verlander), 2016: Indians (Kluber) vs Cubs (Lester), 2015: Mets (deGrom) vs Royals (Cueto).  We need someone of that caliber of that caliber.

Well we have someone of the caliber of Cueto already.  Dude had a 4.76 ERA for the Royals that year. 

[Chuck]

Just now, mymerlincat said:

 

I'm not sure it's possible in today's environment.  If you look at the teams who have been in the World Series lately, 2019: Astros (Cole, Verlander, Greinke) vs Nationals (Scherzer, Strasburg), 2018: Dodgers (Kershaw) vs Red Sox (Sale), 2017: Dodgers (Kershaw, Darvish) vs Astros (Verlander), 2016: Indians (Kluber) vs Cubs (Lester), 2015: Mets (deGrom) vs Royals (Cueto).  We need someone of that caliber of that caliber.

Ohtani is the #1, Bumgarner and Ryu both have postseason experience. Bumgarner World Series experience. 

I don't know man, I love Cole and Strasburg and I'll be the first one to become ecstatic if we sign either of them, but if we can get two "good" starting pitchers because both Strasburg and Cole want to play elsewhere and we offered money that was close, I would be equally ecstatic if we signed a Ryu and Bumgarner instead of just one of those top guys. 

[Justin]

4 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Yes but I like 3 guys competing to be an Ace rather than 3 guys trying their luck at MLB  

I'm concerned Ryu won't be competing, that he'll be spending a lot of time on the IL going forward. And I agree with @Dochalo that he's going to get 20M+ per season. Of all the pitchers we are discussing, he seems the most likely to be a disappointment (by quite a bit in my opinion). 

[mmc]

4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Ohtani is the #1, Bumgarner and Ryu both have postseason experience. Bumgarner World Series experience. 

I don't know man, I love Cole and Strasburg and I'll be the first one to become ecstatic if we sign either of them, but if we can get two "good" starting pitchers because both Strasburg and Cole want to play elsewhere and we offered money that was close, I would be equally ecstatic if we signed a Ryu and Bumgarner instead of just one of those top guys. 

Ohtani has made 10 starts in his career.  How can you say he’s already good enough to be the ace of a World Series team?

[Second Base]

I would stay the heck away from Bumgarner. I love is Giants and A's territory so Bumgarner is on all the time and I'm telling you, he's not even a mid rotation starter anymore. He's reached that proverbial cliff. Someone is going to sign him for a lot of money and he's going to go the way of James Shields. 

I really like Ryu. Great upside, can be had at a fraction of the cost of the other upside plays on the market and doesn't require draft pick compensation. 

I think Dallas Keuchel is a great fit. High ground ball tendencies with Simmons and Fletcher behind him could be a great commination.

[CanadianHalo]

I have zero faith in Ryu to stay healthy moving forward. Of course he stayed healthy during a contract year though. 
 

Give me Cole and Keuchel then a trade for Contreras

[Don]

32 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I have zero faith in Ryu to stay healthy moving forward. Of course he stayed healthy during a contract year though. 
 

Give me Cole and Keuchel then a trade for Contreras

I mean, even if we get 20-25 starts out of Ryu, that's still a significant improvement over what we had last year.

[totdprods]

I'm not really sure either Bumgarner or Ryu are feasible...

I think Bumgarner, like Wheeler, is going to receive offers well beyond what Eppler would be comfortable offering, and will have a preference for the NL and Midwest/East.
For Ryu, I think the Dodgers will duck out of the bidding for Cole/Strasburg and simply re-sign Ryu to a very strong offer, and he'll prefer staying somewhere familiar. 

So by default, that puts me at Cole/Strasburg and Bundy. 

But I don't think they'll stop there. I think Eppler will then either...

• A) add a third SP modestly priced - Roark, Keuchel, Wacha, Wood, or Quintana by trade - and then add minor offensive pieces (Maile, Peraza) or...
• B) add a third SP on the very cheap side - Lyles, Bailey, Smyly, Lindblom - and add something significant offensively - ranging from Castellanos, Thames, Souza, Pillar, Gregorius, Hernandez- or to bullpen, like Betances, other reasonably priced RPs, Liriano, Kintzler, Rondon
• C) Or he'll swing a major trade for an impact SP (Ray), an impact bat (Contreras), or both (Darvish/Quintana/Hendricks/Contreras/Bryant)

I think I'd prefer B or C...
For B, I have faith in the young SPs. I think they'll turn a corner, and we'll get at least enough league average production from a couple of them to keep the rotation functioning. 
From there, I do think someone like Castellanos or Gregorius could wind up being a bargain buy. If not, Eppler might look at true value buys at a combo of places, like RF (Souza/Pillar), 2B (Starlin or Cesar Hernandez), 1B Shaw/Thames, and then spend a bit more on C (Maldonado, Phegley, or Castro probably the most expensive left) or drop some coin into the bullpen, adding one or two of Betances, Treinen, McHugh, Harris, Rondon, Gausman, Hudson, Reed, Tepera. 

But I also think we have the prospect capital and payroll room to pull off Option C, and make a big, bold move for an arm and/or a bat - I'm not sure it's the best move to make, but Eppler might still need to make it if he's feeling up against the wall, especially after missing out on the second-tier FA SP market.

Edited December 6, 2019 by totdprods

[Pancake Bear]

Skipping Cole to sign two “good” pitchers reminds me of Bavasi’s line about replacing Nolan Ryan because he was gonna cost too much. 

The reality is that looking around the league right now, if you don’t have an ace, you cannot be competitive in the playoffs. This isn’t 2002.

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43 minutes ago, Don said:

I mean, even if we get 20-25 starts out of Ryu, that's still a significant improvement over what we had last year.

Ryu averaged 105ish innings between 2017-18. He basically didn’t pitch at all in 2015-16. Given our luck with injuries, I avoid Ryu. Yeah, there’s a lot of upside, but he’s a huge health risk and his skill is inducing favorable contact, to strikeouts. Not sure how well that’s gonna age. But he’s coming off a career year. 

[GrittyVeterans]

I'd be very careful with the logic that signing 2-3 tier 2 pitchers is better value than the one ace. I think @Dochalo and @Inside Pitch have detailed this in the past. I don't remember the exact details but the bottom line is, signing/trading for guys like Scherzer/Verlander/Sale/Greinke/Corbin/Lester/etc has almost always been better value than going after guys like Garza/Darvish/Cobb/etc

 

It's not always going to be the case, but on average the better value has been with the elite pitchers, even if you have to pay more to get them

[floplag]

It can absolutely be done without a true "ace", but if we go that route we better upgrade a couple spots offensively. 

[Jay]

1 hour ago, mymerlincat said:

Ohtani has made 10 starts in his career.  How can you say he’s already good enough to be the ace of a World Series team?

You can't.

That's just myopic homer shit.

 

[Hubs]

Cole, Bumgarner, and Bundy.

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

I'd be very careful with the logic that signing 2-3 tier 2 pitchers is better value than the one ace. I think @Dochalo and @Inside Pitch have detailed this in the past. I don't remember the exact details but the bottom line is, signing/trading for guys like Scherzer/Verlander/Sale/Greinke/Corbin/Lester/etc has almost always been better value than going after guys like Garza/Darvish/Cobb/etc

 

It's not always going to be the case, but on average the better value has been with the elite pitchers, even if you have to pay more to get them

Garza and Cobb were not #1 guys they were #3 & #4. James Shields and Price were the Horses on those Rays teams! 

[mmc]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

Well we have someone of the caliber of Cueto already.  Dude had a 4.76 ERA for the Royals that year. 

Ok, even if you don’t want to count Cueto, that’s still 9/10 of the last World Series teams.

[Lou]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think Dallas Keuchel is a great fit. High ground ball tendencies with Simmons and Fletcher behind him could be a great commination.

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[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, Lou said:

hey @tdawg87, I found your next favorite word.

This whole swipe topping thing on my phone gives me fits sometimes.

[ukyah]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

If we can’t get Cole then go with Strasburg.  If you can’t get Strasburg then go after Ryu and Keuchel and trade for the best arm you can get with years of control for Marsh.  Or go Ryu, Darvish, Contreras and have the Cubs pick up some money.  

nooooo.

[ukyah]

4 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Skipping Cole to sign two “good” pitchers reminds me of Bavasi’s line about replacing Nolan Ryan because he was gonna cost too much. 

The reality is that looking around the league right now, if you don’t have an ace, you cannot be competitive in the playoffs. This isn’t 2002.

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Ryu averaged 105ish innings between 2017-18. He basically didn’t pitch at all in 2015-16. Given our luck with injuries, I avoid Ryu. Yeah, there’s a lot of upside, but he’s a huge health risk and his skill is inducing favorable contact, to strikeouts. Not sure how well that’s gonna age. But he’s coming off a career year. 

it ages better than strikeout pitchers.

[ukyah]

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

I would stay the heck away from Bumgarner. I love is Giants and A's territory so Bumgarner is on all the time and I'm telling you, he's not even a mid rotation starter anymore. He's reached that proverbial cliff. Someone is going to sign him for a lot of money and he's going to go the way of James Shields. 

I really like Ryu. Great upside, can be had at a fraction of the cost of the other upside plays on the market and doesn't require draft pick compensation. 

I think Dallas Keuchel is a great fit. High ground ball tendencies with Simmons and Fletcher behind him could be a great commination.

 

what a load of horseshit.

 

and then to follow that up with keuchel praise?

[ukyah]

6 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Ohtani has #1 ace type stuff, that's what I meant. 

Every pitcher you sign is a risk, and Ohtani is no different, but he has the type of star power that Cole and Strasburg have to take the ball in game 1 and game 7 of a World Series. 

That to me is the definition of a #1. 

i get it. he's got the stuff and the makeup, as he showed in his rookie year, but he certainly doesn't have the track record to be fairly called a #1. i think the hang up for most is that they feel he hasn't earned it yet.

[gotbeer]

7 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

So if we missed out on two of the top starters, would you be disappointed if the Angels signed both Bumgarner and Ryu to trio up with Ohtani atop the rotation? 

I mean, we could probably sign Bumgarner, Ryu & Teheran for the same price of Gerrit Cole or even Stephen Strasburg.

Thoughts?

Cole is just on another level as term as FA pitchers.  He's clearly a #1 type pitcher.

The next level after that is Strasburg and Bumgarner.  Really anything after Cole you have ?? marks.  Bumgarner if healthy is a 200+ IP a year pitcher.  We had zero 100+ IP a year starting pitchers last season.  This is really a necessity for this team, and only Bumgarner and Cole can do that.  Strasburg reached the 200+ IP level last year, for the second time in his career.  So health is definitely an issue.  Along with health, both are probably looking for a 5+ year contract with Bumgarner at 29 and Strasburg at 30.  

Next level after that is Ryu and Teheran.  Ryu has never hit the 200+ IP mark.  His last 2 years have been great for WHIP and ERA.  Health is a big issue, but a plus should be term of contract.  At 32 YO, maybe a 3 year contract?  Teheran is the youngest of the group at 28 YO.  But his IP is on a downwards trend after peaking at 200 IP in 2015.  Every year has been going down with last year being 174 IP.  His WHIP is also strange in that every alternating year is a 1.3 or a 1.1.  Because of his erratic nature, his deal might be a 2+1 or even a 1+1.  

JMO, but on the Angels staff, the rotation would be like this.

1. Cole
2. Bumgarner
3. Strasburg
4. Ohtani
5. Ryu
6. Teheran
7. Heaney
8. Canning

Again, just my opinion.  But I think Ohtani is more of a #3 pitcher on a good team.  He's coming off TJ.  He hasn't even pitched 100 IP yet.  Heck, he's only at 51.2 IP.  He's a once a week pitcher, not a 5 day pitcher.  That's why IMO, if the Angels want to be competitive next season, we need 2 of the top 3.  

Again, JMO,, but if we go Bumgarner and Ryu/Teheran, we better really upgrade the offense to compensate for the runs.  The biggest problem this team has is we don't have the talent for IP, which then overly will rely on the BP, which isn't that strong in the first place.