Sign in to follow this  
AngelsWin.com

OC Register: Source: Stephen Strasburg, Angels had face-to-face meeting

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

What is it about Cole's track record that makes his future success so convincing? He was essentially a #4 type in 2017. A #3 the year before. He improved dramatically the second he became an Astro. That raises some serious red flags for me.

I think you are markedly underplaying how good Cole was before he came to the Astros in order to fuel your own narrative.  

He was a top 10 pitcher in 2015 with a 2.6 era.  He was absolutely an ace that year and that was at age 24.  

His 2016 wasn't as good but he only pitched 116 innings yet he still had 2.5 WAR at the age of 25

2017 - he had a 3.4 WAR and threw 203 innings.  And that was at age 26 so it's not like he'd even hit his peak

Then the last two years happened where he's essentially been the top or one of the top pitchers in baseball.  

The above is a fairly normal progression for an ace level pitcher.  I get that you don't think the Angels should spend on him but swaying the narrative by assigning some esoteric rotation slot moniker is disingenuous.   

If you truly believe we should trade Trout and start over then you just don't live in reality and you need to go back and do some research on how and what teams win.  

The Astros had three aces, a terrific pen, and the best offense in baseball which resulted in 107 regular season wins.  Yet they lost to a team that won 93 regular season games.  The last four years has skewed your perception of what it takes to win.  Thinking that you have to put together a team that's 105 wins strong during the regular season is absurd and completely unrealistic.  

Every team has some holes.  You don't throw out an opportunity because your team isn't perfect.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Yes. I don't believe Cole will be an outlier like they are.

Wouldn't be that big of a surprise. It's guys with a poor track record that fall off. Cole doesn't have a poor track record. He compares very favorably with guys like Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke through his career to date. Obviously he could, there is always a risk, but unless you're just wanting to be a Johnny Raincloud, there's no real reason to imagine he can't be still pitching at a high level in 5-6 or possibly even 7 years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I have to disagree with this. There has been plenty of successful years of Angels baseball with guys taking the mound that were second tier pitching talent. The Angels had a couple decades of true aces in guys like Chance, Ryan and Tannana but since they've never had a Cole level pitcher. Washburn, Lacky and Weaver, although bulldogs, just were never on the same level.

It can't hurt to have a pitcher of Cole's talent level. It can hurt the franchise if they put all their future payroll flexibility into one player at a position known for the highest attrition rate in baseball. 

I really would have no qualms if the Angels opted for two very reliable second tier pitchers that are known to have spikes of well above league average performance but no Cy Young resume. Taking lesser years, lesser money but far lesser impact should one go down. 

Just so there is no misunderstanding I am talking about 2nd tier, not the Harvey or Blantons of pitching. 

We won one championship in that amount of time. It's very hard to win without an ace. We don't have one. We don't have one in the pipeline. The team isn't deep enough to be successful unless we make a move for one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reason why Cole is being so hyped is not only because he was great in 2019, but because there are reasons to think he'll remain great for at least a few more years. 

And yeah, I think it will take 8 years - that might be the deciding factor for him: who is going to give him that 8th year? 8 x $35M = $280M. That's crazy, I know, but it might take that much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think you are markedly underplaying how good Cole was before he came to the Astros in order to fuel your own narrative.  

He was a top 10 pitcher in 2015 with a 2.6 era.  He was absolutely an ace that year and that was at age 24.  

His 2016 wasn't as good but he only pitched 116 innings yet he still had 2.5 WAR at the age of 25

2017 - he had a 3.4 WAR and threw 203 innings.  And that was at age 26 so it's not like he'd even hit his peak

Then the last two years happened where he's essentially been the top or one of the top pitchers in baseball.  

The above is a fairly normal progression for an ace level pitcher.  I get that you don't think the Angels should spend on him but swaying the narrative by assigning some esoteric rotation slot moniker is disingenuous.   

If you truly believe we should trade Trout and start over then you just don't live in reality and you need to go back and do some research on how and what teams win.  

The Astros had three aces, a terrific pen, and the best offense in baseball which resulted in 107 regular season wins.  Yet they lost to a team that won 93 regular season games.  The last four years has skewed your perception of what it takes to win.  Thinking that you have to put together a team that's 105 wins strong during the regular season is absurd and completely unrealistic.  

Every team has some holes.  You don't throw out an opportunity because your team isn't perfect.  

 

In addition to the above:

1. At the time of the trade articles basically said "The Pirates make him throw too many cut fastballs, he should throw more 4 seem fastballs and he'll be more successful." He threw more 4 seemers and became more successful. 

2. His year to year numbers have basically been identical to Scherzur's (maybe a hair better) at the same age, until this year when Cole surpassed him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Right.  If we choose to make comments that are generalizations and those generalizations are untrue, you should be called out for it.  It would be like me saying, “most people were on board with signing Cahill”, when I was pretty much the only one who thought it wasn’t that bad of a signing at the time.

I didn't think the Cahill or Harvey signings were bad. 

 

As for Cole vs Strasburg, The "hard off on signing Cole for 8 years" is not that at all. Nobody wants Cole for 8 years. Nobody. But if it takes 8 years to get him here to at least pitch the next 4-5, that is an acceptable outcome.

 

Nobody wants Strasburg for 8 years either. Nobody wants him for more than 4-5. But if 6 is what it takes to get HIM here, again, acceptable outcome. Less acceptable than Cole for 8, but still one that many on here would be content with. Myself included.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I have to disagree with this. There has been plenty of successful years of Angels baseball with guys taking the mound that were second tier pitching talent. The Angels had a couple decades of true aces in guys like Chance, Ryan and Tannana but since they've never had a Cole level pitcher. Washburn, Lacky and Weaver, although bulldogs, just were never on the same level.

It can't hurt to have a pitcher of Cole's talent level. It can hurt the franchise if they put all their future payroll flexibility into one player at a position known for the highest attrition rate in baseball. 

I really would have no qualms if the Angels opted for two very reliable second tier pitchers that are known to have spikes of well above league average performance but no Cy Young resume. Taking lesser years, lesser money but far lesser impact should one go down. 

Just so there is no misunderstanding I am talking about 2nd tier, not the Harvey or Blantons of pitching. 

well sure.  those good teams had a lot of other strong assets that made them good.  

the second tier market is what has caused the attrition rate to be the highest in baseball by the way.  There's about a 75% chance that someone from that second tier is not only going to disappoint but suck.  So lets say you get Ryu and Madbum and spend almost 45m per over the next 4 years.  At least one of those players isn't going to be very good and there a strong chance they both aren't.  

there's no right answer at this point.  It boils down to how you manage risk and what things you take into account in order to do so.  Personally, I feel like Cole is a much better bet to perform when we need him to vs. two guys in the 2nd tier market.  It very well could backfire and have a negative impact on future payroll but so could a lot of other moves.  None of them come without some level of risk.  

I'm betting on Cole.  Some would bet on others.  Some don't even want to bet.  We shall see.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I didn't think the Cahill or Harvey signings were bad. 

 

As for Cole vs Strasburg, The "hard off on signing Cole for 8 years" is not that at all. Nobody wants Cole for 8 years. Nobody. But if it takes 8 years to get him here to at least pitch the next 4-5, that is an acceptable outcome.

 

Nobody wants Strasburg for 8 years either. Nobody wants him for more than 4-5. But if 6 is what it takes to get HIM here, again, acceptable outcome. Less acceptable than Cole for 8, but still one that many on here would be content with. Myself included.

Yes, this. I would only want Cole for five years, but would gladly sign him for six, am ok with seven, and would do eight because I think, in the end, it would be worth it for the 3-4 years of greatness, and further 2-3 years of goodness. Its just the nature of these contracts: you have to accept some degree of poor value on the tail end. You just hope to avoid a Pujolsian disaster.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At a certain point, money becomes more important to the agent than the player. Ego, bragging rights amongst peers. And more realistically, a big lure for future clients. The best advertising an agent can get.

The era of the 'super agent's in sports probably goes back to the seventies, and ties in with the introduction of free agency. Of course big time agents go further back in the movie industry. As far back as the thirties, and eventually was one of the factors that transformed the studio system. But that's another story.

In context, I think Cole and Strasburg are probably less concerned about the ultimate numbers they are offered than Boras. Maybe a short term ego thing, but every year there are bigger contracts on the horizon. 

At a certain point the difference between 250, 260 or whatever millions (within sane reason) are offered become mere abstractions. Things for accountants and investor gurus to deal with. Lifestyle, team success, personal comfort zones and opportunities to excel for the rest of a career are the everyday realities.

The biggest splash Boras can make is to sign both Cole and Strasburg to a package deal with the same team. Money and term closely calibrated for each individual but  structured differently. Maybe more up front money for Strasburg but more term for Cole. There is a wide spectrum for how the details can be defined.

Individually, each player would probably be very careful about choosing a team with very good playoff prospects. But together they would know that as a pair they could realistically turn even lesser teams (within reason)into instant contenders.

This kind of thing is now common in basketball, but driven by the players more than agents. It has happened in other sports too, but more rarely. In the early seventies the WHA was formed to compete with the NHL. Obviously they needed players, and the best method was poaching them from the NHL. There were all kinds of crazy stuff happening, but one of the most interesting was the legendary Gordie Howe (then in his late forties) coming out of retirement to play with his two sons, Mark and Marty, in Houston. That three player signing was utterly unique in that time.

All this is a long way of saying that if Cole and Strasburg have the same agent, coordinating their strategy is a possibility. If they are both on the same page about money, location, team prospects Boras can orchestrate a deal that will be historic.

If that happens, the Angels should be a strong competitor. Yankees and Dodgers always loom, but the Angels could instantly become a championship contender and major drawing card. Not to mention transforming the rivalry with the Dodgers.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The reason why Cole is being so hyped is not only because he was great in 2019, but because there are reasons to think he'll remain great for at least a few more years. 

And yeah, I think it will take 8 years - that might be the deciding factor for him: who is going to give him that 8th year? 8 x $35M = $280M. That's crazy, I know, but it might take that much.

 

6 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I didn't think the Cahill or Harvey signings were bad. 

 

As for Cole vs Strasburg, The "hard off on signing Cole for 8 years" is not that at all. Nobody wants Cole for 8 years. Nobody. But if it takes 8 years to get him here to at least pitch the next 4-5, that is an acceptable outcome.

 

Nobody wants Strasburg for 8 years either. Nobody wants him for more than 4-5. But if 6 is what it takes to get HIM here, again, acceptable outcome. Less acceptable than Cole for 8, but still one that many on here would be content with. Myself included.

there's no way in hell I'd go to 6 years for Stras.  The whole point of having Cole for eight is that you'd get his age 29 and 30 seasons.  Those make the additional six years more palatable.  I like Stras to do well for his first 3 years.  Maybe 4 but his injury risk is what concerns me the most.  

For Cole though, I just don't give a shit what happens in years 7 or 8.  The Angels need to make it happen over the next 5 or 6 years.  Based on Cole's arsenal and what other similar pitchers have been able to do at age 35 and beyond, I like his chances of still being solid or even good at that point.  

But we'll deal with 2026 and 2027 when we get there.  For now, I'm all about the next 5 years.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stras may be capable of the same types of performances Cole is, but he hasnt shown the ability to stay healthy or be as consistent
Stras is 31 and has 239 career starts over 10 big league seasons with less than 25 in 3 of the last 5 seasons and only over 30 once in that time span, last year.
Cole is 29, has 192 in 7 seasons, with over 30 in each of the last 3.
The age and injury history alone take Stras out of the same category as Cole.   For me its tier 1 Cole, Tier 2 Stras, tier 3 etc... everyone else. 

IF we miss out on Cole. to me it makes far more sense to pivot away from the aces, put the larger investment in bats, and grab some of the lesser arms still out there.  Grab Rendon, maybe Bumgardner and Kuechel, etc...

In short, for me it has to be Cole if were going to get that ace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, this. I would only want Cole for five years, but would gladly sign him for six, am ok with seven, and would do eight because I think, in the end, it would be worth it for the 3-4 years of greatness, and further 2-3 years of goodness. Its just the nature of these contracts: you have to accept some degree of poor value on the tail end. You just hope to avoid a Pujolsian disaster.

 

Albert is 40 and his first year of the deal was age 31.  That would be like giving Strasburg an 8 year deal when you factor in that pitchers get shorter contracts.  8 years of Cole takes him through age 36.  It actually makes more sense to give Cole a 10 year deal than it does having given one to Albert.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since they have the same agent I am pretty sure this is how it will shake down.

Cole signs first and it will be for a record dollar amount and for 8 years.  

That sets the market.

Then Strasburg gets one more year than everyone thought he would get, probably 6 years, and he will get $2-3 million less per year than Cole.  

So if Cole gets 8 years and $280 million then Strasburg gets 6 years and $192 million, maybe even 7 years and $210 million.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I think you are markedly underplaying how good Cole was before he came to the Astros in order to fuel your own narrative.  

He was a top 10 pitcher in 2015 with a 2.6 era.  He was absolutely an ace that year and that was at age 24.  

His 2016 wasn't as good but he only pitched 116 innings yet he still had 2.5 WAR at the age of 25

2017 - he had a 3.4 WAR and threw 203 innings.  And that was at age 26 so it's not like he'd even hit his peak

Then the last two years happened where he's essentially been the top or one of the top pitchers in baseball.  

The above is a fairly normal progression for an ace level pitcher.  I get that you don't think the Angels should spend on him but swaying the narrative by assigning some esoteric rotation slot moniker is disingenuous.   

If you truly believe we should trade Trout and start over then you just don't live in reality and you need to go back and do some research on how and what teams win.  

The Astros had three aces, a terrific pen, and the best offense in baseball which resulted in 107 regular season wins.  Yet they lost to a team that won 93 regular season games.  The last four years has skewed your perception of what it takes to win.  Thinking that you have to put together a team that's 105 wins strong during the regular season is absurd and completely unrealistic.  

Every team has some holes.  You don't throw out an opportunity because your team isn't perfect.  

 

Doc, you are becoming very off-putting, like @Inside Pitch and @tdawg87

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm actually in the minority here, but 5-6 years from now, I like Strasburg more than I like Cole. The reason why is that once Strasburg's velocity fell 5 mph, he had to learn to how pitch. Cole will likely do the same... Likely. But there are a lot more examples of others that lost their effectiveness when they lost their velocity then there are of those that just maintained that velocity. Scherzer and Verlander are either freaks of nature like Nolan Ryan was, or they're cheating. I don't know.

But I know Strasburg can pitch. And being in a six man staff (well, five and a half because of roster manipulation), might suit Stephen well and protect his arm.

I'd still bid more for Cole because years 1-4, Cole will obviously be better, I think. But again, in years 5-6, I like Strasburg. I'd have no issues going 6 years with him, as long as I'm going in with the expectation of 160 innings a year and not 200+.  And like @Dochalo in regards to Cole, I really don't care so much about years 6-8 with him. Cross that bridge when you get there. I care about the next five.

Edited by Second Base

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/6/2019 at 7:48 AM, True Grich said:

Some people (and we know who they are) just talk out of their ass.  It's like a fart.  Some of them are loud, but don't necessarily smell and some are silent but deadly. Then there's the loud, smelly farts and that's what we get a lot of in here.   Rational people leave the room when there is a loud, smelly fart in the room.  That being said, there's usually a WTF before they depart - but they know sticking around is pointless. The really gifted people are the one's who can return the favor before departing. The original offender is left alone, smelling their own fart and wondering where everyone went.  The point is that you eventually have to leave these a-holes alone to wallow in their own crap.

You have to wonder how often some of these posters post their gibberish, and 20 minutes later feel like their crack is filled with milk.

Speaking of, BRB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/5/2019 at 5:27 PM, AngelsWin.com said:

The Angels are looking for more starting pitching, even after making a trade to get Dylan Bundy from the Baltimore Orioles

even after? you mean bundy by himself won't be enough to get us into the playoffs?

#disallusioned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this