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OC Register: Source: Stephen Strasburg, Angels had face-to-face meeting

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45 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Some people (and we know who they are) just talk out of their ass.  It's like a fart.  Some of them are loud, but don't necessarily smell and some are silent but deadly. Then there's the loud, smelly farts and that's what we get a lot of in here.   Rational people leave the room when there is a loud, smelly fart in the room.  That being said, there's usually a WTF before they depart - but they know sticking around is pointless. The really gifted people are the one's who can return the favor before departing. The original offender is left alone, smelling their own fart and wondering where everyone went.  The point is that you eventually have to leave these a-holes alone to wallow in their own crap.

Image result for disappeared like a fart in the wind

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Still think it’s really convenient this article came out about Boras client Strasburg and the Angels just as the article about Boras client and Cole and the Yankees came out. Feels a little Boras-coordinated to drive up offers or get other teams involved, probably an indicator that talks are progressing for at least one of them. 

I’m sure they didn’t mind it, but it certainly wasn’t driven by them. I can promise you that. 

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I'm pretty much in the 'whatever it takes' crowd if there is one.  

there's a difference between paying for past performance and paying someone based on their track record.  It's the job of the buying team to perform due diligence and determine whether that previous performance is sustainable and for how long.  The older a player is when you sign him decreases those chances.  

I want the Angels to be all in on Cole because I don't think they have a chance to win without someone like him over the next 3 years and there is no one else even remotely close to what he brings coming from the halos system or in free agency any time soon.  

Let's assume for a second that he and Wheeler perform similarly in 2020 as they did in 2019 and the delta in their performance stays similar the next 5 years or so.  Over that 5 years, Cole is gonna cost about 10 mil more per year than Wheeler over the next 5 years but provides more more value for that additional 10m.  

Beyond 5yrs is when the contract gets tricky but there is precedent for ace level pitchers aging well like Verlander, Scherzer and Greinke.  The ones that haven't aged well into their mid 30's have had shoulder issues like Felix and Johan Santana.  So personally, I really like Cole's chances of being very good later in the contract.  

And let's be clear.  This is not the Pujols contract.  Albert started a 10 year deal with the Angels in his age 32 season.  Cole would be starting an 8 year deal in his age 29 season.  

If you're risk averse and don't think the current team is worth investing in then so be it.  But I see the sweet spot of this deal being from 2022-24 when Trout is 30-32 and Ohtani is in his late 20's.  A bunch of our young talent will be in the majors and several will have a couple years of ramp up time by then.  And if Eppler plays his cards right, two years from now a lot of the guys in rookie ball will be in AA so there will be a pot of tradeable assets to further improve the team.  Also by that time, there will be a fair amount of dead weight off the books

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1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I was just talking about the Strasburg-Angels story. I only know the genesis of that one. 

gotcha.  I'm not sure what Boras has to gain by publicly showing that two of his clients are interviewing with teams looking for pitching.  He already knows that internally and what impact that has.  My guess is that the Halos met with Corbin last year and Wheeler this year as well as many other pitchers which didn't get leaked to the press.  

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26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm pretty much in the 'whatever it takes' crowd if there is one.  

there's a difference between paying for past performance and paying someone based on their track record.  It's the job of the buying team to perform due diligence and determine whether that previous performance is sustainable and for how long.  The older a player is when you sign him decreases those chances.  

I want the Angels to be all in on Cole because I don't think they have a chance to win without someone like him over the next 3 years and there is no one else even remotely close to what he brings coming from the halos system or in free agency any time soon.  

Let's assume for a second that he and Wheeler perform similarly in 2020 as they did in 2019 and the delta in their performance stays similar the next 5 years or so.  Over that 5 years, Cole is gonna cost about 10 mil more per year than Wheeler over the next 5 years but provides more more value for that additional 10m.  

Beyond 5yrs is when the contract gets tricky but there is precedent for ace level pitchers aging well like Verlander, Scherzer and Greinke.  The ones that haven't aged well into their mid 30's have had shoulder issues like Felix and Johan Santana.  So personally, I really like Cole's chances of being very good later in the contract.  

And let's be clear.  This is not the Pujols contract.  Albert started a 10 year deal with the Angels in his age 32 season.  Cole would be starting an 8 year deal in his age 29 season.  

If you're risk averse and don't think the current team is worth investing in then so be it.  But I see the sweet spot of this deal being from 2022-24 when Trout is 30-32 and Ohtani is in his late 20's.  A bunch of our young talent will be in the majors and several will have a couple years of ramp up time by then.  And if Eppler plays his cards right, two years from now a lot of the guys in rookie ball will be in AA so there will be a pot of tradeable assets to further improve the team.  Also by that time, there will be a fair amount of dead weight off the books

@RBM @Stradling@Lou

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30 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm pretty much in the 'whatever it takes' crowd if there is one.  

there's a difference between paying for past performance and paying someone based on their track record. 

What is it about Cole's track record that makes his future success so convincing? He was essentially a #4 type in 2017. A #3 the year before. He improved dramatically the second he became an Astro. That raises some serious red flags for me.

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20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

gotcha.  I'm not sure what Boras has to gain by publicly showing that two of his clients are interviewing with teams looking for pitching.  He already knows that internally and what impact that has.  My guess is that the Halos met with Corbin last year and Wheeler this year as well as many other pitchers which didn't get leaked to the press.  

Of course. Like I said, most of the meetings don’t lead to deals and don’t get publicized. 
 

The whole thing is sort of like looking through a keyhole into a big ballroom. A lot of stuff is happening besides what we can see through the keyhole. 

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3 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

What is it about Cole's track record that makes his future success so convincing? He was essentially a #4 type in 2017. A #3 the year before. He improved dramatically the second he became an Astro. That raises some serious red flags for me.

Better coaching. Unlocking what was already there. The Angels now have arguably one of the best pitching coaches and managers in the league with Callaway and Maddon. No reason he should regress. Also, it’s not like he’ll suddenly forget whatever he learned in Houston that unlocked the improvement. 

The notion that somehow the Astros got something out of him that no one else could and that he’ll turn into a pumpkin wherever he lands next makes zero sense to me. Perhaps you can enlighten me on why you think he can’t sustain his improvement. 

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10 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

What is it about Cole's track record that makes his future success so convincing? He was essentially a #4 type in 2017. A #3 the year before. He improved dramatically the second he became an Astro. That raises some serious red flags for me.

I hate looking at projections because it’s so difficult to put faith in the future results. But, he is following a Max Scherzer trajectory with a similar arsenal. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Because most pitchers don't once they hit 30.

Ok, so show us some stats of the really good pitchers in the league falling on their face in their age 29 season.  Or their 30 season.  Then their 31 season.  Then their 32 season.  If we were talking about someone entering their age 33 season I would agree that we could expect an immediate drop off.  But when they are entering their age 29 season, I’m not buying it.  Show us a regression chart for pitchers coming off of multiple DOMINANT years where they fall off a cliff at age 29.  

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50 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I want the Angels to be all in on Cole because I don't think they have a chance to win without someone like him over the next 3 years

I have to disagree with this. There has been plenty of successful years of Angels baseball with guys taking the mound that were second tier pitching talent. The Angels had a couple decades of true aces in guys like Chance, Ryan and Tannana but since they've never had a Cole level pitcher. Washburn, Lacky and Weaver, although bulldogs, just were never on the same level.

It can't hurt to have a pitcher of Cole's talent level. It can hurt the franchise if they put all their future payroll flexibility into one player at a position known for the highest attrition rate in baseball. 

I really would have no qualms if the Angels opted for two very reliable second tier pitchers that are known to have spikes of well above league average performance but no Cy Young resume. Taking lesser years, lesser money but far lesser impact should one go down. 

Just so there is no misunderstanding I am talking about 2nd tier, not the Harvey or Blantons of pitching. 

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5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok, so show us some stats of the really good pitchers in the league falling on their face in their age 29 season.  Or their 30 season.  Then their 31 season.  Then their 32 season.  If we were talking about someone entering their age 33 season I would agree that we could expect an immediate drop off.  But when they are entering their age 29 season, I’m not buying it.  Show us a regression chart for pitchers coming off of multiple DOMINANT years where they fall off a cliff at age 29.  

 

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16 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Better coaching. Unlocking what was already there. The Angels now have arguably one of the best pitching coaches and managers in the league with Callaway and Maddon. No reason he should regress. Also, it’s not like he’ll suddenly forget whatever he learned in Houston that unlocked the improvement. 

The notion that somehow the Astros got something out of him that no one else could and that he’ll turn into a pumpkin wherever he lands next makes zero sense to me. Perhaps you can enlighten me on why you think he can’t sustain his improvement. 

Not to mention that in Cole's first two seasons, he was pitching like a #3 starter, and then in 2015 he was an ace (4th in NL Cy Young balloting).    He had only TWO subpar seasons, one from injury (2016) and the other (2017) possibly from lingering affects from that injury.

Outside of 2016, Cole has been very durable, and is only 29 for most of the 2020 season. 

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Just now, Stradling said:

Kershaw had an ERA+ of 151 since he turned 29.  

Price has had an ERA+ of 127 since turning 29.

Madison was overworked early in his career.

Cueto ok.

And a closer doesn’t really compare.

 

For the record I am not saying Cole will be useless the next couple years. He's probably going to be very good (not as good as last year but good). I've always said it is a win-now move. The Angels are not going to compete for the next couple years and will only maybe be competing during his decline when he's making $40M+ per year.

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Just now, Vladdylonglegs said:

For the record I am not saying Cole will be useless the next couple years. He's probably going to be very good (not as good as last year but good). I've always said it is a win-now move. The Angels are not going to compete for the next couple years and will only maybe be competing during his decline when he's making $40M+ per year.

It’s not just a win now move it is a win in the next 4-5 years move.  If he gets $40 million in his decline it means he got less in his prime when he is performing his best.

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Just now, Stradling said:

It’s not just a win now move it is a win in the next 4-5 years move.  If he gets $40 million in his decline it means he got less in his prime when he is performing his best.

That's where we disagree then. I don't believe a 34 year old Cole will be a dominant presence in the playoffs. 

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1 minute ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

That's where we disagree then. I don't believe a 34 year old Cole will be a dominant presence in the playoffs. 

Ok.  Is a 34 year old Scherzer?  Verlander at 37?  

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