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Angelsjunky

Imagining a Cole-less offseason

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5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The rotation depth still has me a little concerned - I have a lot more faith in the youngsters than most here, but if Bundy IS the second acquired behind a presumptive Cole, then I’d like to see them at least start the year or ST with a flier like Smyly, Nova, Moore, Hellickson, if not someone better like Roark, Lindblom, Hill, etc.

Not hard to DFA or trade a vet flier SP type in May if they blow and a kid is ready.

I actually like our depth. Obviously the quality could be better but if the pitchers were better they wouldn't be "depth".

If we get Cole, we are 10 starters deep. Remember, we have Dillon Peters who is probably as good as any "flier" we could take.

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4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Ohtani gets 90 DH starts, Pujols gets 50 DH starts and 40 1B starts, and Castellanos could then get 20 DH starts and 120 1B starts (pretty much fulltime).

If Ohtani gets 25 starts, that means there will be 137 games he isn’t starting.  If he only gets 90 starts at DH, that seems way too low.

He would only be the DH in like 65% of games he isn’t pitching in?

90 at DH and 25 starts on the mound is 115 games played.  He just sits 47 games?

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9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I actually like our depth. Obviously the quality could be better but if the pitchers were better they wouldn't be "depth".

If we get Cole, we are 10 starters deep. Remember, we have Dillon Peters who is probably as good as any "flier" we could take.

If we had a little more durability in the top 5-6, I’d be just fine with that Top 10, but I’m still really leery with the fact no one on the roster right now, aside from Bundy, has done more than a single full season in the rotation. Signing one more guy who has a reasonable track record of making 30 GS/160-180 IP, even if mediocre, makes me feel a little better, at least until a month or two passes and we see that the other Top 10 are proving healthy. Especially with Pena likely missing some time at start of the year. 

Just get them as an insurance policy. Let’s say something horrible happens - Canning or Sandoval need TJS in ST - and then someone like Bundy, Cole, or Heaney pull a hammy or miss the first few weeks...do we really want to be counting on a bunch of rookies who had a collective 6.00 ERA right out of the gate? Get someone cheap to help soak up innings, at least in April/May while everyone is still getting stretched out so we don’t kill the pen and give them the Cody Allen boot once we see things are stable.

Edited by totdprods

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3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

If Ohtani gets 25 starts, that means there will be 137 games he isn’t starting.  If he only gets 90 starts at DH, that seems way too low.

He would only be the DH in like 65% of games he isn’t pitching in?

90 at DH and 25 starts on the mound is 115 games played.  He just sits 47 games?

Remember he will sit day before and day after he pitches too, if there’s a game. And I imagine they’ll play it fairly conservatively with him too. He also won’t play in NL parks, so he’ll get some PH usage too. 

Edited by totdprods

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

If we had a little more durability in the top 5-6, I’d be just fine with that Top 10, but I’m still really leery with the fact no one on the roster right now, aside from Bundy, has done more than a single full season in the rotation. Signing one more guy who has a reasonable track record of making 30 GS/160-180 IP, even if mediocre, makes me feel a little better, at least until a month or two passes and we see that the other Top 10 are proving healthy. Especially with Pena likely missing some time at start of the year. 

Oh I'm hoping and praying that Cole and Bundy aren't "it". I'm just saying our depth itself isn't terrible if that's the case.

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12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

If Ohtani gets 25 starts, that means there will be 137 games he isn’t starting.  If he only gets 90 starts at DH, that seems way too low.

He would only be the DH in like 65% of games he isn’t pitching in?

90 at DH and 25 starts on the mound is 115 games played.  He just sits 47 games?

The Angels have 8 Mondays next season where they have the day off...  that will factor into the equation, if he pitches on Sundays.

Edited by True Grich

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5 minutes ago, True Grich said:

The Angels have 8 Mondays next season where they have the day off...  that will factor into the equation.

That’s only if they stick to keeping him on Sundays, something they haven’t committed too, and weren’t even able to do his first year.

I think it’ll be fluid. They’ll likely keep him on some sort of an alternate schedule separate from the traditional starters, and try to line up his starts as often as possible on days preceding off days. Maybe this means he skips a start every now and then and logs a few more DH appearances, maybe he rests a bit when they play NL parks. 

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3 hours ago, floplag said:

I dont want to even consider this, BUT... we cant deny the possibility of it.

IF we lose out of Cole, i pivot to building the best offense in the game to make up for lack of pitching.  Its really our only option at that point if we dont get at least one of Cole/Stras, and i dont really think Stras is truly in play for us at all.

So... I sign Rendon and make a trade for a top young catcher.  Maybe grab Catellanos or Puig for a year or two to fill in the OF till the kids are ready or I make the trade with the cubs to get Contreras and Bryant, maybe more, and i sign as many mid tier guys as i can like Kuechel, Lindblom etc... and try to win every game 6-5.

What other option is there?

I totally agree. If Cole and Strasberg go elsewhere, then it’s Rendon and an arm like Keuchel, or bust. Angels may have no choice but to spend their way out of their mediocrity since they’ve been unwilling to blow up the team and rebuild, when they probably could have a few years ago. Continuing to slowly wait for the farm system to deliver as mike trout’s prime slips away and team control of stars like Simmons ends is no sure bet to pan out and could alienate the fan base in the process. This free agent class is terrific and the Angels have to get one or two big stars or risk falling out of contention and out of favor with fans. 

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Eppler is all in on Gerrit Cole so when he traded for Bundy my concern was Bundy becomes the second starter in Eppler's plan. I know there are additional options but I think his current plan is Cole/Ohtani/Heaney/Canning/Bundy with some combination of Sandoval/Barria/Suarez getting the 6th man spot starts. Not the plan I was hoping for but if everyone stays healthy it should be a very good rotation.

So now if we don't get Cole? Well, we have to go into scramble mode. With Ohtani pitching once a week along with three back end of the rotation guys we will need to sign the two best SP's still available or sign one and trade for one. Maybe sign Keuchel ($18 M/No QO) and trade for Ray ($11 M). He only has one year of control but he gives Eppler or his replacement the time to see which one of the young guys can/will step up in 2021.

We will need a Catcher. Sign Jason Castro($6 M).

We will need a platoon at 1B. I think we can handle this in house with La Stella but also let Thaiss compete for it in spring training. I see the allure of Castellanos but he will cost 4/56 and I think he gets that or more from a team looking for a DH/RF piece. So his salary doesn't fit in this plan. Also, he was so bad at 3B in 2017 that he hasn't played a game there since. Can he even handle 1B? And he's another RH bat.

The net result in 2020 is an additional $41 M between Keuchel, Ray, Bundy and Castro.

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3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

If the Angels don't significantly improve their starting pitching through free agency this year, it's not going to happen that way next year, either (they could obviously make trades, though).  Here's the projected list of starting pitchers who'll be free agents after next season.  Not exactly a lot of difference-makers in this batch:

Chase Anderson (33) – $9.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Chris Archer (32) – $11MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Arrieta (35)
Trevor Bauer (30)
Tyler Chatwood (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (31)
Michael Fiers (36)
Cole Hamels (37)
J.A. Happ (38) – $17MM vesting option
Merrill Kelly (32) – $4.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Corey Kluber (35) – $17.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Mike Leake (33) – $18MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
Jon Lester (37) – $25MM mutual/vesting option with a $10MM buyout
Mike Minor (33)
Charlie Morton (37) – $15MM vesting option
James Paxton (32)
Jose Quintana (32)
Robbie Ray (29)
Garrett Richards (33)
Jeff Samardzija (36)
Anibal Sanchez (37) – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Marcus Stroman (30)
Masahiro Tanaka (32)
Jordan Zimmermann (35)

This is important. There is no ace next year. It’s basically Cole (/possibly Strasburg) or bust. That or get lucky on bargain guys like the Rangers did with Lynn and Minor.

I don’t know that I trust Eppler to get lucky on starting pitching, although having Callaway and Maddon assures me that the coaching staff will get the most out of what we have. 

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, the other thing to consider is that the Angels have some pitching prospects that will start paying dividends over the next few years. Ohtani still hasn't really pitched for us, and should get better and better over the next few years. Canning, Barria, Sandoval, and Suarez have all had some major league experience and range from #2-4s in terms of upside. Jose Soriano, Chris Rodriguez, and Jack Kochanowicz all project to be good or better starters and should arrive over the next 2-3 years. And that doesn't even touch upon the depth arms.

So you can still get Bundy and maybe another innings-eater this year, possibly go after a Stroman or Ray next year, and build slowly to a 2022+ powerhouse.

I’m not okay with 2022. If Eppler strikes out on Cole, I’ll watch till the end of the year to see how his backup plan worked out. If we’re not at least in contention in late September, Eppler needs to go. 

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Someone please tell me why a team with the money we have keep getting its window pushed?  and how any of us could possibly be OK with that?
WTF is the point of keeping Trout to win when hes Pujols age?
No, we do build to a '22 power, we start now and maintain it.
This is just not acceptable to keep sliding that window further and further out for me, at all. 

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No one is pushing the window - either on the team or here, as far as I can tell. To get back to the original intention of the thread, what is Plan B in the case that Cole doesn't work out?

My point is simply that I hope that Eppler doesn't panic in the case of missing out on Cole and spend money that hurts the team in the long-run. It is really that simple. And being in the kind of mentality that you always have, @floplag, often leads to panic moves. 

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6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

No one is pushing the window - either on the team or here, as far as I can tell. To get back to the original intention of the thread, what is Plan B in the case that Cole doesn't work out?

My point is simply that I hope that Eppler doesn't panic in the case of missing out on Cole and spend money that hurts the team in the long-run. It is really that simple. And being in the kind of mentality that you always have, @floplag, often leads to panic moves. 

Well i dont know what you mean about whatever mentality is always have as its always only been for this club to win.
I to have mentioned what if in case Cole got to expensive, but is it a panic move to sign the guy we need? 
We already know were going to over pay, thats been very clearly established, and im fine with them doing it as long as they realize it cant be the only move they make.
Weve wasted the last 2 years, waiting... when what we should have been doing is putting the supporting parts in place for this time so Cole would be the last part... but we didnt do that. 
Everything we need is out there, in either FA or trade options, its time the front office does it s job, there are no excuses left.   WE have 325M to buy the stadium, we can afford to kick the luxury tax a couple years. 

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18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

No one is pushing the window - either on the team or here, as far as I can tell. To get back to the original intention of the thread, what is Plan B in the case that Cole doesn't work out?

My point is simply that I hope that Eppler doesn't panic in the case of missing out on Cole and spend money that hurts the team in the long-run. It is really that simple. And being in the kind of mentality that you always have, @floplag, often leads to panic moves. 

Panic mode is 100% okay if we miss out on Cole. It’s now or never now. No more of this build towards 2022 bullshit. We have Trout in his prime now. You do whatever it takes to build a winner. If panic mode is what it takes then you go into panic mode.

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You know who came out of panic mode? Vernon Wells and Josh Hamilton. 

Anyhow, @floplag, I am not opposed to spending big - but with caution. I'd much rather see Eppler blow everyone else away for Cole than miss out on Cole and spend big on mediocre free agents, because he's afraid of losing his job and fans are upset.

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1 hour ago, Bronson said:

Panic mode is 100% okay if we miss out on Cole. It’s now or never now. No more of this build towards 2022 bullshit. We have Trout in his prime now. You do whatever it takes to build a winner. If panic mode is what it takes then you go into panic mode.

Even with Cole and Trout you need about a million things to go right before you can win a championship.

 

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47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Nothing about Billy Eppler says ‘panic mode’ to me. If anything he’ll just play it too safe again I think. 

That’s what scares me.

”If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

Sometimes you have to spend stupid money. This is one of those times. If the Yankees or Dodgers do decide to get competitive (I’m skeptical, but both teams have the financial means to do so if they choose to), we will have to have the high offer to have a chance. Sox were highest for Wheeler and still lost. 

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3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

If Ohtani gets 25 starts, that means there will be 137 games he isn’t starting.  If he only gets 90 starts at DH, that seems way too low.

He would only be the DH in like 65% of games he isn’t pitching in?

90 at DH and 25 starts on the mound is 115 games played.  He just sits 47 games?

What is it...  26-27 weeks in a season?  So, 25-27 starts...   4x26/27 means a possible 104 or 108 games at DH.   If they sit him due to matchup reasons.... Then yeah, your numbers are about right.   

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I know it's not what AJ is asking, but plan b is to spend more money than you thought you'd have to in order to get Cole.  

There isn't another FA like him coming any time soon and we have no one in the pipeline coming any time soon.  He is literally a magical addition to this team.  We have very little chance to accomplish what we'd like without him.  

and a 1-2 of Cole, Ohtani for the playoffs would be just fine.  

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they need to let Ohtani hit the day before or after he pitches.  probably after because it gives them a little more lead time if something happens.  

but do the math and have him pitch as many games as possible before or after an off day.  

10 thursdays and 10 mondays off.  

 

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7 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Sure, he's pretty good--but, realistically, he's only had one "very good" year so far in his career.  He can definitely improve a rotation, but if he's the best you've got, you're probably not going to the playoffs.  (Side note: yes, I know we'll have Ohtani back--but I remain conservative on him until I see what he can do in a full season)

I remain conservative on him until I see that his arm doesn't fall off again. I'm not worried about his pitching talent. It's the damn injuries that seem to follow us year after year.

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