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Dylan Bundy to the Angels for Isaac Mattson, Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish, and Kyle Brnovich

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16 minutes ago, Second Base said:

@totdprods Looks like the Angels paid quite a bit less than what you and I were talking to a few days ago. 

What was the thought? Suarez, Bradish, Thaiss, Aquino, etc....

Definitely less, but, I do think it was a bit of a quantity over quality deal. Does one Thaiss/Barria equal those four arms? I didn’t think it would cost two good prospects like Thaiss and Barria, but I though we’d have to cough up someone who was a name. 

Overall I like the deal a lot. All of those arms are fairly interchangeable with any number of other guys already in the system, or replaceable in the draft, and the ceiling for most is no different from what we can pluck off waivers usually. 

Take it as a good sign that both Eppler and the Orioles valued our Top 15, even 20, guys as being too much to pay for Bundy, which is a good reflection of the value our Top 20 does indeed have. 

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"Still, this isn't a bad rotation: Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy, Canning, Sandoval, with depth of Suarez/Barria/Peters/F Pena. I can live with that."

 

You can live with it but you can win a WS with it. Cole is no guarantee. This could get ugly. Bundy may hopefully pitch better with better defence behind him.  

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41 minutes ago, RBM said:

Do you think Eppler still needs to add two more starting pitchers better than Bundy?

OR

Do you think Bundy is the second SP Eppler said he was pursuing and now that we have Bundy we only need one more top of the order starting pitcher?

Both? That’s what I’m alluding to about why this deal is so good - for now. It gives Billy a ton of leverage and flexibility. Bundy is a great safety net to have as the rest of the offseason plays out.

Assuming they sign Cole, he’s added two solid, durable SPs to a young promising rotation, only one of whom will take up significant money. So from there, he has three options...

  • Sit back on Bumgarner, Ryu, maybe guys like Teheran, Keuchel, Wood, Roark, arguably the top FA arms remaining after Cole/Strasburg, and see how things play out. Maybe someone winds up like Keuchel last year, and the Angels snag someone on a really good value deal. Similarly, this can apply to the trade market, especially someone like Robbie Ray. 
  • He can go cheap (Bailey, Hellickson, Smyly) on the rotation or stand pat, and instead turn his focus and dollars to offense - something that should be a strength and double-down to make it stronger, and hope the young arms step forward. He could sign maybe a Castellanos, Donaldson, other IF options (Castro, Hernandez, Gennett) and/or Souza or Pillar for RF 1-yr deals, Castro for C, etc., and if any of those deals pay off, move hitter prospects at the deadline for established arms
  • He can go big on the rotation, sign Cole, sign the next best arm he can find like Bumgarner or Keuchel, and then perhaps deal a young SP arm or two for a bat, or again, hold onto everyone and assess midseason, with Canning et al slotting into a #5-6 rotation based on everyone’s health and production. 

Now that we’re out on Wheeler and Hamels, and Ryu/Bumgarner seem fairly unlikely, it’s pretty safe to say the Angels will have to add to the rotation either by volume and value (Cole *plus* a lesser arm like Keuchel etc.) or if they need another impact arm, by trade, with that move likely meaning some offensive additions to replace whoever is dealt. 

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32 minutes ago, Second Base said:

@totdprods Looks like the Angels paid quite a bit less than what you and I were talking to a few days ago. 

What was the thought? Suarez, Bradish, Thaiss, Aquino, etc....

 "I can’t imagine his cost will be that high. At most, two of anyone named Thaiss, Ward, Jones, Walsh, Rengifo, Suarez, or Barria would be what I’d expect"

This is what was discussed last week. I disagreed with it at the time. Now that we've dealt four lower level pitchers I'm ok with the move if, and only if, Bundy is the third addition to our rotation.

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4 minutes ago, RBM said:

 "I can’t imagine his cost will be that high. At most, two of anyone named Thaiss, Ward, Jones, Walsh, Rengifo, Suarez, or Barria would be what I’d expect"

This is what was discussed last week. I disagreed with it at the time. Now that we've dealt four lower level pitchers I'm ok with the move if, and only if, Bundy is the third addition to our rotation.

It was about what I expected. Four arms/prospects is a little surprising, but again, I think this was in part a quantity over quality deal. Mattson and Bradish are decent prospects, 20-30 range guys, and the Angels still had to tack on a couple more. I’d say that paying two of our Top 10-20 guys would’ve been about equivalent, but the Angels were obviously preferring to keep guys able to contribute to the MLB club, and Baltimore was fine getting guys a little further off. 

Good move for both teams, really. Very good chance one of these arms winds up being a good get for BAL in some capacity and Bundy is just average, which in hindsight could make this look bad, but I think most would agree this is a very fair deal. 

Edited by totdprods

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3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Both? That’s what I’m alluding to about why this deal is so good - for now. It gives Billy a ton of leverage and flexibility. Bundy is a great safety net to have as the rest of the offseason plays out.

Assuming they sign Cole, he’s added two solid, durable SPs to a young promising rotation, only one of whom will take up significant money. So from there, he has three options...

  • Sit back on Bumgarner, Ryu, maybe guys like Teheran, Keuchel, Wood, Roark, arguably the top FA arms remaining after Cole/Strasburg, and see how things play out. Maybe someone winds up like Keuchel last year, and the Angels snag someone on a really good value deal. Similarly, this can apply to the trade market, especially someone like Robbie Ray. 
  • He can go cheap (Bailey, Hellickson, Smyly) on the rotation or stand pat, and instead turn his focus and dollars to offense - something that should be a strength and double-down to make it stronger, and hope the young arms step forward. He could sign maybe a Castellanos, Donaldson, other IF options (Castro, Hernandez, Gennett) and/or Souza or Pillar for RF 1-yr deals, Castro for C, etc., and if any of those deals pay off, move hitter prospects at the deadline for established arms
  • He can go big on the rotation, sign Cole, sign the next best arm he can find like Bumgarner or Keuchel, and then perhaps deal a young SP arm or two for a bat, or again, hold onto everyone and assess midseason, with Canning et al slotting into a #5-6 rotation based on everyone’s health and production. 

Now that we’re out on Wheeler and Hamels, and Ryu/Bumgarner seem fairly unlikely, it’s pretty safe to say the Angels will have to add to the rotation either by volume and value (Cole *plus* a lesser arm like Keuchel etc.) or if they need another impact arm, by trade, with that move likely meaning some offensive additions to replace whoever is dealt. 

I'd be better with Keuchel than Bumgarner. Keuchel would cost less money, no draft pick compensation and his ground ball tendencies fit the Angels infield scheme.

Another buy low target should be Michael Pineda. After his suspension is over, he could be a mid rotation starter.

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3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Both? That’s what I’m alluding to about why this deal is so good - for now. It gives Billy a ton of leverage and flexibility. Bundy is a great safety net to have as the rest of the offseason plays out.

Assuming they sign Cole, he’s added two solid, durable SPs to a young promising rotation, only one of whom will take up significant money. So from there, he has three options...

  • Sit back on Bumgarner, Ryu, maybe guys like Teheran, Keuchel, Wood, Roark, arguably the top FA arms remaining after Cole/Strasburg, and see how things play out. Maybe someone winds up like Keuchel last year, and the Angels snag someone on a really good value deal. Similarly, this can apply to the trade market, especially someone like Robbie Ray. 
  • He can go cheap (Bailey, Hellickson, Smyly) on the rotation or stand pat, and instead turn his focus and dollars to offense - something that should be a strength and double-down to make it stronger, and hope the young arms step forward. He could sign maybe a Castellanos, Donaldson, other IF options (Castro, Hernandez, Gennett) and/or Souza or Pillar for RF 1-yr deals, Castro for C, etc., and if any of those deals pay off, move hitter prospects at the deadline for established arms
  • He can go big on the rotation, sign Cole, sign the next best arm he can find like Bumgarner or Keuchel, and then perhaps deal a young SP arm or two for a bat, or again, hold onto everyone and assess midseason, with Canning et al slotting into a #5-6 rotation based on everyone’s health and production. 

Now that we’re out on Wheeler and Hamels, and Ryu/Bumgarner seem fairly unlikely, it’s pretty safe to say the Angels will have to add to the rotation either by volume and value (Cole *plus* a lesser arm like Keuchel etc.) or if they need another impact arm, by trade, with that move likely meaning some offensive additions to replace whoever is dealt. 

True, Eppler has options. I hope the option he chooses is not:

Cole/Ohtani/Heaney/Canning/Bundy

I hope he adds Cole and another SP who is a current upgrade to Heaney, Canning and Bundy.

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

It was about what I expected. Four arms/prospects is a little surprising, but again, I think this was in part a quantity over quality deal. Mattson and Bradish are decent prospects, 20-30 range guys, and the Angels still had to tack on a couple more. I’d say that paying two of our Top 10-20 guys would’ve been about equivalent, but the Angels were obviously preferring to keep guys able to contribute to the MLB club, and Baltimore was fine getting guys a little further off. 

Good move for both teams, really. 

I'm good with the nice because three of the four prospects they dealt were fairly replaceable, run if the mill college arms that typically leave the draft board in rounds 5-10. Easy to replace.

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4 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Now trade Sandoval or Suarez and someone like Jordyn Adams for Contreras and Darvish. Sign Gerrit Cole. Done!

Added offense from a position of weakness for the Halos and added an ace-like arm to trio up with Ohtani and Cole. 

They might prefer Heaney. Add in Kimbrel for Cozart and I’m sold.

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6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am surprised that so many Angels fans have been Ok with this deal. 
 

I have come to expect pitchforks and torches anytime they do anything that isn’t signing Gerrit Cole. 

it's only because 98.3% of us have never heard of the 4 players traded. 

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Just now, Second Base said:

I'd be better with Keuchel than Bumgarner. Keuchel would cost less money, no draft pick compensation and his ground ball tendencies fit the Angels infield scheme.

Another buy low target should be Michael Pineda. After his suspension is over, he could be a mid rotation starter.

I like Pineda too. Also Alex Wood. Keuchel would be preferable over Bumgarner for me too. Lots of arms left. Like I said, Bundy gives him a really great safety net to work with. The only move Billy HAS to make now is signing Cole/Strasburg, and because Bundy only costs $5-6m and no top prospects, Billy can sit back and make the best value move wherever he sees fit - another FA SP of any caliber, FA bats, trades for impact arms or impact bats - as he pretty much still retains all the ammo he needs for either route. 

I’ve always assumed Cole is the mythical ‘special player’ Arte breaks preconceived budgets for, so I almost don’t count his salary into the usual budget - he’s the exception regardless of the other moves, within reason - and Bundy’s modest salary doesn’t tilt the scale at all. They have salary to work with for an arm or a bat, or trade currency to use too. It’s a good situation. 

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3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I like Pineda too. Also Alex Wood. Keuchel would be preferable over Bumgarner for me too. Lots of arms left. Like I said, Bundy gives him a really great safety net to work with. The only move Billy HAS to make now is signing Cole/Strasburg, and because Bundy only costs $5-6m and no top prospects, Billy can sit back and make the best value move wherever he sees fit - another FA SP of any caliber, FA bats, trades for impact arms or impact bats - as he pretty much still retains all the ammo he needs for either route. 

I’ve always assumed Cole is the mythical ‘special player’ Arte breaks preconceived budgets for, so I almost don’t count his salary into the usual budget - he’s the exception regardless of the other moves, within reason - and Bundy’s modest salary doesn’t tilt the scale at all. They have salary to work with for an arm or a bat, or trade currency to use too. It’s a good situation. 

I've heard two things that could be considered "inside" information regarding Cole, though I would quantify it as more "informed" than anything.

The first is that Moreno philosophically will not pay anyone more than Mike Trout on an annual basis. Whether they stick to this, I don't know.

The second, is that Gerrit Cole is coming to the Angels.

If I combine these two, I think the result is Gerrit Cole signing with the Angels for less than 35 million a year.

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10 minutes ago, RBM said:

True, Eppler has options. I hope the option he chooses is not:

Cole/Ohtani/Heaney/Canning/Bundy

I hope he adds Cole and another SP who is a current upgrade to Heaney, Canning and Bundy.

I hope he adds another arm too (assuming they get Cole) but I’m also open to an offseason where the rotation only adds Cole and Bundy, and we see some additions to the offense or bullpen. Lots of ways this can go still. 

I’m probably more bullish on our young arms than most though. I think between Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, and even Gohara, Peters, Pena, we will get at least two decent rotation spots worth of starts out of that group easy. From there we just need Bundy, Heaney, Ohtani, and Cole to be healthy and their usual selves or better. 

The young hitting crop is probably closer to being reliably average, but I think the upside is limited, aside from Adell. Adding a good bat into the mix like Castellanos or Donaldson would be a good move. 

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1 minute ago, Second Base said:

I've heard two things that could be considered "inside" information regarding Cole, though I would quantify it as more "informed" than anything.

The first is that Moreno philosophically will not pay anyone more than Mike Trout on an annual basis. Whether they stick to this, I don't know.

The second, is that Gerrit Cole is coming to the Angels.

If I combine these two, I think the result is Gerrit Cole signing with the Angels for less than 35 million a year.

I think Cole will sign here, and for less annually than Trout as well. I think Gerrit recognizes and respects this, and I do think he wants to be here. 

Angels sign Cole to the long-rumored ‘right player’ budget breaking deal. Angels sign Bundy. 

Angels still have $15m-$30m in annual/2020 payroll value to play with, depending on how Cole’s contract is structured. Plenty of room for value arms, maybe an impact bat, or a combo of players spread around.

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2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Bundy’s career is pretty damn comparable to Kyle Gibson’s last three years - and the Rangers are paying him $20m over the next two seasons. Bundy for arb and fringe prospects is a good example of paying good value here. 

Yes, but we lost two Kyles in the trade and the Rangers gained one Kyle, which leaves our Kyle differential with them at -1.

Edge: Rangers

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28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The first is that Moreno philosophically will not pay anyone more than Mike Trout on an annual basis. Whether they stick to this, I don't know.

That makes no sense. Longer term ——> Lower aav. 7-8 vs 12 years and he’d balk at 36 for the best pitcher in baseball?

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24 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think Cole will sign here, and for less annually than Trout as well. I think Gerrit recognizes and respects this, and I do think he wants to be here. 

Angels sign Cole to the long-rumored ‘right player’ budget breaking deal. Angels sign Bundy. 

Angels still have $15m-$30m in annual/2020 payroll value to play with, depending on how Cole’s contract is structured. Plenty of room for value arms, maybe an impact bat, or a combo of players spread around.

Pure guess, I'd say Cole gets 8/264 from the Angels, and they round it out with signing Keuchel for 2/30, Jason Castro for 1/6, and Eric Thames for 1/3.

This will looked require them back-loading Cole's contract a bit. Maybe 25 million the first year.

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