Ron Mexico

Halos All in on Cole

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5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if the team doesn't get a lot better, then he probably should be fired.  

They're gonna be all in a on Cole.  Why would it make any difference to Arte whether he gets Cole at 7/224 or 8/260?

That 8th year at a back loaded 40 mil will be in 2027 when Cole is 36 and Trout is 35.  If it doesn't work by then, it didn't work.  This is for the fans to accept.  Are you ok with what that means?  Because all that 8th year does is limit what the team can spend in 2027.  It changes nothing over the next 7 years.  A couple things to consider though.  First, the avg salary 7 years ago was about 20% less than it is now we can probably assume that a comfortable increase in avg payroll will be in the 10-15% range.  Second, if things go as planned with Adell, the winter before Cole's 8th year will likely mark when Adell becomes a free agent.  Again, a lot will happen in the interim so I think it's worth it but remember, you are committing at least 7 years already if you sign him.  I guess I'm not as concerned about 2027 as I am 2020-2026.  Sign that mofo.  

Actually, it lowers the aav, most likely. If he’s offered deals of 7 vs 8 years, it probably won’t be the same aav. 

I’m assuming you're looking at something in the neighborhood of 7/245 (35aav) or 7/252 (36aav) as opposed to 8/264 (33aav) or 8/272 (34aav). 

Obviously not a huge difference year to year, but an extra year to push back money to if they want to go that route. 

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15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if the team doesn't get a lot better, then he probably should be fired.  

They're gonna be all in a on Cole.  Why would it make any difference to Arte whether he gets Cole at 7/224 or 8/260?

That 8th year at a back loaded 40 mil will be in 2027 when Cole is 36 and Trout is 35.  If it doesn't work by then, it didn't work.  This is for the fans to accept.  Are you ok with what that means?  Because all that 8th year does is limit what the team can spend in 2027.  It changes nothing over the next 7 years.  A couple things to consider though.  First, the avg salary 7 years ago was about 20% less than it is now we can probably assume that a comfortable increase in avg payroll will be in the 10-15% range.  Second, if things go as planned with Adell, the winter before Cole's 8th year will likely mark when Adell becomes a free agent.  Again, a lot will happen in the interim so I think it's worth it but remember, you are committing at least 7 years already if you sign him.  I guess I'm not as concerned about 2027 as I am 2020-2026.  Sign that mofo.  

Same here, the biggest thing I would be concerned with is the AAV. He's as sure of a thing as a pitcher as you can hope for, but if he's making 40 million a year, that puts a ton of pressure on the Angels farm system to fill any holes in the roster internally. 

If they can get him for under 35 million a year, it helps open up some funds each year to fill like holes here and there.

But this off-season is more important than I think anyone realizes. Even after Pujols' contract is off the books, the Angels will need to spend again to keep their homegrown talent here. Whether that's Ohtani, Adell, Marsh, Canning, Fletcher, Rengifo or even Thaiss... This year will likely be the final time the Angels have this amount of funds available to spend for another decade.

They need to get the best and they need to get it right. There's a ton riding on this off-season. Not only do their signings have to work out long term, this team needs to start developing pitchers again in the worst sort of way. They need a couple of high end starters to work out. It could be any from the Rodriguez, Soriano, Kochanowicz, Hernandez group, but they need more than back end starters and they very likely won't have the available funds to make that sort of investment after this year.

And they need to start drafting pitchers higher in the draft. It's hard to count on scoring on third and fourth round picks. I know Billy is good at it, with Rodriguez, Hernandez and Kochanowicz as evidence, but Canning type of starters leave the board early.

Billy has to be perfect this off-season.

Edited by Second Base

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The Angels are willing to pay what ever it takes to land Cole is posted all over the internet. Looks like we won’t be the mystery team on Cole. This may be good strategy for the Angels  ... they put it out there for a reason. Teams interested in Cole may part the seas for the Angels. The competition will put up a competitive offer but may not go crazy knowing the Angels will one up them in the end.

food for thought 💭 

 

7467407C-59F9-4A8E-9FA0-46D44E4FC25D.jpeg

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52 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

The Angels are willing to pay what ever it takes to land Cole is posted all over the internet. Looks like we won’t be the mystery team on Cole. This may be good strategy for the Angels  ... they put it out there for a reason. Teams interested in Cole may part the seas for the Angels. The competition will put up a competitive offer but may not go crazy knowing the Angels will one up them in the end.

food for thought 💭 

 

7467407C-59F9-4A8E-9FA0-46D44E4FC25D.jpeg

I like it.  Weed out some of the potential players who have the potential of getting emotionally caught up in a bidding war.  Chase everyone with a big pre flop bet from the button.  You better have the stack and the nuts though or you're gonna get called.  

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The Yankees are leaking the stuff about believing Cole wants to play in California and won’t consider NY because they’re posturing for their fans. They know they’re not spending 250m to sign him but their fans will be pissed if they say that. If they say, “”We’d love to sign Cole...but he doesn’t want to play here!” it gives them some level of deniability. 

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8 hours ago, Second Base said:

Same here, the biggest thing I would be concerned with is the AAV. He's as sure of a thing as a pitcher as you can hope for, but if he's making 40 million a year, that puts a ton of pressure on the Angels farm system to fill any holes in the roster internally. 

If they can get him for under 35 million a year, it helps open up some funds each year to fill like holes here and there.

But this off-season is more important than I think anyone realizes. Even after Pujols' contract is off the books, the Angels will need to spend again to keep their homegrown talent here. Whether that's Ohtani, Adell, Marsh, Canning, Fletcher, Rengifo or even Thaiss... This year will likely be the final time the Angels have this amount of funds available to spend for another decade.

They need to get the best and they need to get it right. There's a ton riding on this off-season. Not only do their signings have to work out long term, this team needs to start developing pitchers again in the worst sort of way. They need a couple of high end starters to work out. It could be any from the Rodriguez, Soriano, Kochanowicz, Hernandez group, but they need more than back end starters and they very likely won't have the available funds to make that sort of investment after this year.

And they need to start drafting pitchers higher in the draft. It's hard to count on scoring on third and fourth round picks. I know Billy is good at it, with Rodriguez, Hernandez and Kochanowicz as evidence, but Canning type of starters leave the board early.

Billy has to be perfect this off-season.

Good post and I completely agree.  I also think bringing in Maddon signaled a more traditional approach to our organization.  Considering the amount of pitchers we took in Eppler drafts between rounds 4-20, I think Billy was envisioning a world where three true starters on the squad, and 3-4 hybrid relief starter types.  I think he was going that stat heavy.  Hell, we still maybe headed in that direction.   Nevertheless, there are some guys in our system who are intriguing who could end up being the next Mike Clevenger.  

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15 hours ago, floplag said:

Why do i get the feeling all our talk of 2 or three pitchers isnt going to end up how we hope?
I have this terrible feeling that if they go all in on Cole, the second guy, if there is one, will not be tier 2. 
Someone please convince me im wrong

The chances of us signing Cole and signing a #2 pitcher have always been remote at best.

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11 hours ago, Second Base said:

Same here, the biggest thing I would be concerned with is the AAV. He's as sure of a thing as a pitcher as you can hope for, but if he's making 40 million a year, that puts a ton of pressure on the Angels farm system to fill any holes in the roster internally. 

If they can get him for under 35 million a year, it helps open up some funds each year to fill like holes here and there.

But this off-season is more important than I think anyone realizes. Even after Pujols' contract is off the books, the Angels will need to spend again to keep their homegrown talent here. Whether that's Ohtani, Adell, Marsh, Canning, Fletcher, Rengifo or even Thaiss... This year will likely be the final time the Angels have this amount of funds available to spend for another decade.

They need to get the best and they need to get it right. There's a ton riding on this off-season. Not only do their signings have to work out long term, this team needs to start developing pitchers again in the worst sort of way. They need a couple of high end starters to work out. It could be any from the Rodriguez, Soriano, Kochanowicz, Hernandez group, but they need more than back end starters and they very likely won't have the available funds to make that sort of investment after this year.

And they need to start drafting pitchers higher in the draft. It's hard to count on scoring on third and fourth round picks. I know Billy is good at it, with Rodriguez, Hernandez and Kochanowicz as evidence, but Canning type of starters leave the board early.

Billy has to be perfect this off-season.

Yeah, and I think this is a really important point that often gets overlooked as people wait for Pujols and, to a lesser degree, Upton's contracts to expire.  Next offseason, Ohtani will be eligible for arbitration, and he could cost anywhere from 5mil or higher in year 1, depending on how he does this year, and it'll only go up from there.  A lot of our youth will start to cost us soon, so while we have some very expensive contracts dropping off soon, they'll effectively be somewhat replaced by our own youth entering arbitration.

The key to all of this, though, is to just continue to draft and develop well.  We do have a lot of intriguing prospects in the lower minors, as nicely covered by our prospect thread, but a lot of them still have a long way to go.  If we can *hit* on a number of them (like Jackson, Paris, Hernandez, Bradish, Soriano, Yan, etc etc) .. then we can be well set-up to have both expensive players (Cole, Trout, Ohtani, etc) and good, strong youth (aforementioned farm players).  If those players don't develop, though, we're likely in trouble.

Eppler really needs to get it "right" this offseason.  Cole and another top SP (Ryu?) would help a ton, but after he commits to 2 deals like that, he's likely out of spending money for the most part, so.. here's hoping he gets it right.

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11 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

The Angels are willing to pay what ever it takes to land Cole is posted all over the internet. Looks like we won’t be the mystery team on Cole. This may be good strategy for the Angels  ... they put it out there for a reason.

Did they put it out there at all, or is this just speculation because they signed Joe Maddon? It isn't the Angels' style to make brash statements about their free agent targets, or even to say who they are. Anyone who needs pitching and can afford the contract will pursue Cole, so that part doesn't take a lot of thought, but the "whatever it takes" part seems dubious to me.

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Scott Boras will obviously try to milk every dollar out of the negotiations, because that is what agents do. There has to be some point at which any team would say that the demands are too much and then just walk away. If one team makes it clear that they will pay whatever it takes, they are set up to bid against themselves - as the Texas Rangers did in the original Alex Rodriguez contract. When the final figures came out, the Rangers had offered about twice what the next highest team had offered. They grossly overpaid in their zeal to land him.

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19 hours ago, floplag said:

Why do i get the feeling all our talk of 2 or three pitchers isnt going to end up how we hope?
I have this terrible feeling that if they go all in on Cole, the second guy, if there is one, will not be tier 2. 
Someone please convince me im wrong

Cole and Wheeler might cost $55+M. Are payroll last year was ~$160M, with the 1 year contracts coming off the books we save ~$35M + declining Calhoun's option adds another $14M. Backloading Cole's and Wheeler's deals until Cozart's, Pujol's and Upton's contracts come off the books over the next 3 years makes it very possible to land them both this offseason. I hope they do...

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You have to think about it from Cole's perspective. He has the final say.

The money and term  offered will probably be roughly similar from the most competitive bidders.  Maybe an extra year from one team, higher average from another. And any number of other monetary and payment variables thrown into the mix.

At some point the player knows he will have enormous wealth for the rest of his life, and think about other things. Like what the next seven or eight years may be like. Probably till the end of his career. The money will be deposited, his accountants managing it. His mind will be on his work and life situation. 

Cole had his first taste of deep championship contention. Losing probably had a big impact. You would think that would leave a strong motivational impression. 

If he expects to play out his career with one team, he would want to be in contention much as possible and get that elusive ring. Therefore he would evaluate organizations and their current and minor league talent plus track record of contention. 

Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are always in or close to the playoffs. Signing there makes the odds more likely he will immediately find himself in a pennant race and probably will for the near future at least. 

With the Angels he knows there is a transitional process to go through. Despite some great star talent.He spent years in Pittsburgh with a non contender and escaped from that loop. Would he want to even endure a couple of years minimum to climb the contention ladder again? Enjoy a slower, incremental pattern of team reconstruction and growth? 

Lifestyle and comfort are another main factor, and the Angels seem to have an edge there. But is it enough to make the difference? 

I think the odds are at least favorable that the Angels can put together an attractive offer. Probably by over paying in one form or another, but their needs are greater. If he signs and the roster is upgraded enough they can probably be wild card contenders this year, and get better beyond then. 

I think it will come down to Cole's motivation beyond money if there are competing offers relatively equal. And he is the only one who ultimately knows how he wants to spend the rest of his career.

 

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The Angels have the local family & friends angle on the plus side.  However, the team could opt out of the lease, elimimating that plus.

Maybe waiting to January gives him more information to make the decision.

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1 hour ago, Duren, Duren said:

You have to think about it from Cole's perspective. He has the final say.

The money and term  offered will probably be roughly similar from the most competitive bidders.  Maybe an extra year from one team, higher average from another. And any number of other monetary and payment variables thrown into the mix.

At some point the player knows he will have enormous wealth for the rest of his life, and think about other things. Like what the next seven or eight years may be like. Probably till the end of his career. The money will be deposited, his accountants managing it. His mind will be on his work and life situation. 

Cole had his first taste of deep championship contention. Losing probably had a big impact. You would think that would leave a strong motivational impression. 

If he expects to play out his career with one team, he would want to be in contention much as possible and get that elusive ring. Therefore he would evaluate organizations and their current and minor league talent plus track record of contention. 

Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are always in or close to the playoffs. Signing there makes the odds more likely he will immediately find himself in a pennant race and probably will for the near future at least. 

With the Angels he knows there is a transitional process to go through. Despite some great star talent.He spent years in Pittsburgh with a non contender and escaped from that loop. Would he want to even endure a couple of years minimum to climb the contention ladder again? Enjoy a slower, incremental pattern of team reconstruction and growth? 

Lifestyle and comfort are another main factor, and the Angels seem to have an edge there. But is it enough to make the difference? 

I think the odds are at least favorable that the Angels can put together an attractive offer. Probably by over paying in one form or another, but their needs are greater. If he signs and the roster is upgraded enough they can probably be wild card contenders this year, and get better beyond then. 

I think it will come down to Cole's motivation beyond money if there are competing offers relatively equal. And he is the only one who ultimately knows how he wants to spend the rest of his career.

 

The Yankees and Dodgers are not offering comparable deals to everyone else. All reports from the Dodgers are that they are not planning on pursuing at all. The Yankees are posturing, but despite claims they’ll pursue they’re already floating PR about him not wanting to play in NY. Why? Because they aren’t going to come close in money or years. 

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1 hour ago, Duren, Duren said:

You have to think about it from Cole's perspective. He has the final say.

The money and term  offered will probably be roughly similar from the most competitive bidders.  Maybe an extra year from one team, higher average from another. And any number of other monetary and payment variables thrown into the mix.

At some point the player knows he will have enormous wealth for the rest of his life, and think about other things. Like what the next seven or eight years may be like. Probably till the end of his career. The money will be deposited, his accountants managing it. His mind will be on his work and life situation. 

Cole had his first taste of deep championship contention. Losing probably had a big impact. You would think that would leave a strong motivational impression. 

If he expects to play out his career with one team, he would want to be in contention much as possible and get that elusive ring. Therefore he would evaluate organizations and their current and minor league talent plus track record of contention. 

Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are always in or close to the playoffs. Signing there makes the odds more likely he will immediately find himself in a pennant race and probably will for the near future at least. 

With the Angels he knows there is a transitional process to go through. Despite some great star talent.He spent years in Pittsburgh with a non contender and escaped from that loop. Would he want to even endure a couple of years minimum to climb the contention ladder again? Enjoy a slower, incremental pattern of team reconstruction and growth? 

Lifestyle and comfort are another main factor, and the Angels seem to have an edge there. But is it enough to make the difference? 

I think the odds are at least favorable that the Angels can put together an attractive offer. Probably by over paying in one form or another, but their needs are greater. If he signs and the roster is upgraded enough they can probably be wild card contenders this year, and get better beyond then. 

I think it will come down to Cole's motivation beyond money if there are competing offers relatively equal. And he is the only one who ultimately knows how he wants to spend the rest of his career.

 

I appreciate your take here, but I believe 2020 is no longer a "transitional" year for the Angels. Arte and Eppler didn't get Maddon so they could hopefully maybe compete for the 2nd WC if everything goes well.

And Cole is a part of the equation. Just like Trout and Ohtani before him. It's not about signing with a team that's already at the top. It's about him signing and putting the Angels over the edge. Now obviously we need more pitching but the core is in place. 

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19 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I appreciate your take here, but I believe 2020 is no longer a "transitional" year for the Angels. Arte and Eppler didn't get Maddon so they could hopefully maybe compete for the 2nd WC if everything goes well.

And Cole is a part of the equation. Just like Trout and Ohtani before him. It's not about signing with a team that's already at the top. It's about him signing and putting the Angels over the edge. Now obviously we need more pitching but the core is in place. 

Yeah the whole "transitional" thing, that time has passed.
Thats not where we are if were looking at Cole. 

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1 minute ago, Taylor said:

I really think the Angels should spend the next couple years rebuilding, and then focus on 2022 as their "go for the gold" year.

good god no.. thats what weve done the last few years, how much of Trouts prime do you want to waste?

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It’d be really nice if Cole is all about avoiding all the drama and the “decision expected soon” and “choosing between” reports and sometime it just hit the wire out of nowhere that he’s agreed to a deal with the Angels. Which seems kind of plausible considering how quiet things have been. Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if discussions between the two were already pretty established. 

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4 minutes ago, floplag said:

good god no.. thats what weve done the last few years, how much of Trouts prime do you want to waste?

I'd really love to see the Angels settle into dominance during Trout's golden years.

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5 hours ago, Deek said:

Kudos to the Yanks management to crank up the idiotic East Coast press corps and jack up the price on the Halos!  Well done!

The Yankees are not doing anything that affects Cole's cost.  Take a look at the Yankee payroll and what they are paying the players who made a difference last year.  The Yankees have bigger payroll issues than trying to figure out how to sign Cole.

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