How do we stack up if we got Cole and Wheeler

[Mark PT]

2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

"lol c'mon dude. La Stella has a lifetime WAR of 2.0, no way he's getting that in one season." - failos, January 2019

IS that cream corn?

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Astros - 32.7 WAR - cheating tax of 20% - 26.2 WAR.  
A's - 26.0 WAR
Angels - 25.3 WAR
Mariners -13.0 WAR
Rangers - 10.8 WAR

They don't like Upton for much of a rebound at 1.6 WAR.  They've got Fletch at 1.7 WAR.  Goodwin and Adell at 0.2 WAR COMBINED for RF.  La Stella at 0.9 WAR but they've got Cozart at 1.6 WAR and Stassi at 1.6 WAR.  

Also, I would subtract a cheating tax from the Astros total number.  Maybe 20% which actually brings them very close to the Halos/A's.  

The projections don't like our pen much though.  But the difference is about 1-2 wins from top to bottom at most.  

If we get Cole and Wheeler, the division is wide open for the Astros, Angels and A's even assuming that the A's and Stros do some stuff to improve this off season.  


 

Thank you for looking that up.
This support i think my assertion that we do need another bat somewhere, preferably at C as a very high but not as high as pitching priority.  If we could bump that up a little it would seem were right there.
Interesting that they are projecting Calhoun at a 1.3 WAR, but moot i suppose.

[failos]

24 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

"lol c'mon dude. La Stella has a lifetime WAR of 2.0, no way he's getting that in one season." - failos, January 2019

Cool, so if one person beat expectations, then Heaney will too? Is that your argument?

Edited November 26, 2019 by failos

[eaterfan]

15 minutes ago, failos said:

Cool, so if one person beat expectations, then Heaney will too? Is that your argument?

It's an equally bad argument no one can match their career WAR in one season.

No, I don't think Heaney will get to 3 WAR, but I don't think it's something that is laughable. I think he's a little better than he has been in the past and 3.0 WAR would be a decently flukey season, but those happen quite often in baseball.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thank you for looking that up.
This support i think my assertion that we do need another bat somewhere, preferably at C as a very high but not as high as pitching priority.  If we could bump that up a little it would seem were right there.
Interesting that they are projecting Calhoun at a 1.3 WAR, but moot i suppose.

maybe.  The Astros are still projected to be the best offense in the league and by a decent amount actually.  Other teams ahead of the halos.  

Astros - 32.7
Dogs - 29.6
Red Sox - 29.2
Yanks - 26.6
A's - 26.0
Angels - 25.3

but that's it.  even with the stuff I mentioned where I see so things that I don't find very accurate about the projections.  the other thing it doesn't do a great job of projecting are players with less major league experience.  So Fletcher, Thaiss, La Stella, Goodwin, Rengifo, Walsh, Adell, etc.  Most of that probably washes out to some degree.  

Catcher still seems like the most obvious addition, but now that Grandal is gone, there likely isn't a huge delta of the remaining guys.  RF is a weak spot per the projections but they're just not giving any credit to Adell for his prowess or for Goodwin's solid 2019.  I'm inclined to think we're much better there than the numbers show but it might be wise to go with a solid vet 4th OFer.  Like a Brock Holt or Jason Kipnis or even bringing back Calhoun if the price is right for 1yr.  The other spot to potentially fill would be 1b but I just don't see the halos adding depth there.  I feel like they think they've got enough between La Stella, Albert, Thaiss, Ward and Walsh.  

there are definitely some question marks, but I think our offense is very good personally. There was long stretch during the past year where we were one of the top 5 offenses when everyone was healthy.  It was very balanced and if we get even a decent hitting catcher, we can be that way again.  

Again, I do think we need an upgrade at C, but if there are any additional resources, I think we need to supplement the pen a bit with a solid multi-inning reliever.  I would put that on par with offense as a priority after fixing the SP.  

[Docwaukee]

50 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

It's an equally bad argument no one can match their career WAR in one season.

No, I don't think Heaney will get to 3 WAR, but I don't think it's something that is laughable. I think he's a little better than he has been in the past and 3.0 WAR would be a decently flukey season, but those happen quite often in baseball.

I don't think a 3.0 WAR season for Heaney would be flukey at all.  he was at 2.8 WAR in 2018 when healthy and 1.6 WAR in 105 ip when healthy as a rookie in 2015.   He's entering his age 29 season which is still considered his prime.  I think his o/u is about 2.3 WAR but 3.0 wouldn't be crazy.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, eaterfan said:

"lol c'mon dude. La Stella has a lifetime WAR of 2.0, no way he's getting that in one season." - failos, January 2019

He would have got that and more last season if not for his freak accident resulting in a broken leg. He was an All Star. I mean he got 1.5 WAR in half a season, come on of course 2.0 would have been an easy get.

Edited November 26, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[floplag]

46 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

maybe.  The Astros are still projected to be the best offense in the league and by a decent amount actually.  Other teams ahead of the halos.  

Astros - 32.7
Dogs - 29.6
Red Sox - 29.2
Yanks - 26.6
A's - 26.0
Angels - 25.3

but that's it.  even with the stuff I mentioned where I see so things that I don't find very accurate about the projections.  the other thing it doesn't do a great job of projecting are players with less major league experience.  So Fletcher, Thaiss, La Stella, Goodwin, Rengifo, Walsh, Adell, etc.  Most of that probably washes out to some degree.  

Catcher still seems like the most obvious addition, but now that Grandal is gone, there likely isn't a huge delta of the remaining guys.  RF is a weak spot per the projections but they're just not giving any credit to Adell for his prowess or for Goodwin's solid 2019.  I'm inclined to think we're much better there than the numbers show but it might be wise to go with a solid vet 4th OFer.  Like a Brock Holt or Jason Kipnis or even bringing back Calhoun if the price is right for 1yr.  The other spot to potentially fill would be 1b but I just don't see the halos adding depth there.  I feel like they think they've got enough between La Stella, Albert, Thaiss, Ward and Walsh.  

there are definitely some question marks, but I think our offense is very good personally. There was long stretch during the past year where we were one of the top 5 offenses when everyone was healthy.  It was very balanced and if we get even a decent hitting catcher, we can be that way again.  

Again, I do think we need an upgrade at C, but if there are any additional resources, I think we need to supplement the pen a bit with a solid multi-inning reliever.  I would put that on par with offense as a priority after fixing the SP.  

it comes down to this, is the pitching strong enough once assembled to offset the offense.   Your numbers suggest our pitching would be better than either the A's or Astros in theory with the offense lagging behind both.
Again thanks for posting that though, informative.

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, floplag said:

it comes down to this, is the pitching strong enough once assembled to offset the offense.   Your numbers suggest our pitching would be better than either the A's or Astros in theory with the offense lagging behind both.
Again thanks for posting that though, informative.

There's no offset necessary.  The offense would be good.  The pitching would be good.  These are just projections.  Being 2 or 3 wins better or worse by the projections pretty much puts you on equal ground.  The Astros offense is projected to be better than ours but they're projected to be better than everyone.  Plus, they've been cheating so who knows how that impacts them going forward.  

[floplag]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

There's no offset necessary.  The offense would be good.  The pitching would be good.  These are just projections.  Being 2 or 3 wins better or worse by the projections pretty much puts you on equal ground.  The Astros offense is projected to be better than ours but they're projected to be better than everyone.  Plus, they've been cheating so who knows how that impacts them going forward.  

i think the cheating this is honestly a little overblown at this point.  unless the main guys are doing it, which i haven't yet heard any accusation of, they will still be very good.  the lesser guys maybe not so good but i still feel we need a shot in arm offensively to really get on their level even with the pitching.
Perhaps Adell will provide that but i dont think he does so this year.
I think if we get the pitching we will be better than the A's and definitely a wild card, but the division still goes thru Hou so, thats the real bar to me

[Lou]

the cheating has certainly not been overblown. 

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, floplag said:

i think the cheating this is honestly a little overblown at this point.  unless the main guys are doing it, which i haven't yet heard any accusation of, they will still be very good.  the lesser guys maybe not so good but i still feel we need a shot in arm offensively to really get on their level even with the pitching.
Perhaps Adell will provide that but i dont think he does so this year.
I think if we get the pitching we will be better than the A's and definitely a wild card, but the division still goes thru Hou so, thats the real bar to me

there's video of them banging the trash can for pretty much every player including Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa.  

how good would Trout be if he knew what pitch was coming?  

I'm not sure how you can say it's been overblown.  the lengths they've gone to are literally insane to me.  

[Inside Pitch]

23 minutes ago, Lou said:

the cheating has certainly not been overblown. 

Apparently video proof isn't enough.

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Apparently video proof isn't enough.

Video proof is overblown

[floplag]

56 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

there's video of them banging the trash can for pretty much every player including Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa.  

how good would Trout be if he knew what pitch was coming?  

I'm not sure how you can say it's been overblown.  the lengths they've gone to are literally insane to me.  

i personally haven't seen any video of the key guys yet, if you have please share it.  Ill change that tune quick.
Dont mistake me, its logical i mean they have to at least know whats going on i just haven't seen the proof in their cases yet and im trying to be reasonable about it.   If its out there, fuck em, i guess i just havent come aross that part of it is all.

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, floplag said:

i personally haven't seen any video of the key guys yet, if you have please share it.  Ill change that tune quick.
Dont mistake me, its logical i mean they have to at least know whats going on i just haven't seen the proof in their cases yet and im trying to be reasonable about it.   If its out there, fuck em, i guess i just havent come aross that part of it is all.

here's bregman, correa and springer. 

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/more-video-evidence-of-astros-cheating-in-2017-emerges/523470

watch a few of Jomboy's videos.    there's others that include Altuve among others.  

[Troll Daddy]

34 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

here's bregman, correa and springer. 

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/more-video-evidence-of-astros-cheating-in-2017-emerges/523470

watch a few of Jomboy's videos.    there's others that include Altuve among others.  

Why you so worried about the Astros offense ... cheating or not it’s far better than the Angels. Btw Bregman numbers were average at home and MVP caliber on the road. 

Personally, I’m very worried about our offense. La Stella and Goodwin were career best imo. I believe in Fletcher yet unsure about Upton. I expect Adell to struggle some next season when he gets his opportunity. AP is hard to predict ... the same goes for Thaiss. Ohtani is going to get far less AB’s. Catching I have no clue what to expect offensively. 

I’d feel a whole lot better if somehow we signed Josh Donaldson  The good news is I feel Eppler shares my concerns. 

 

 

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, floplag said:

i think the cheating this is honestly a little overblown at this point.  unless the main guys are doing it, which i haven't yet heard any accusation of, they will still be very good.  the lesser guys maybe not so good but i still feel we need a shot in arm offensively to really get on their level even with the pitching.
Perhaps Adell will provide that but i dont think he does so this year.
I think if we get the pitching we will be better than the A's and definitely a wild card, but the division still goes thru Hou so, thats the real bar to me

The key guys were definitely doing it. I’ve seen video of pretty much all of them (I don’t remember if I’ve seen Altuve, but I’ve directly seen it of the rest for sure). There are also things online arguing they found a way to cheat on the road also. Not sure whether that’s been confirmed yet though. It made an undeniable difference in their play. Guys like Bregman, Springer, and Altuve have basically been cheating their entire career. The league has been checking on newer ways that fans can’t verify for them to get the info other than trashcan banging. Their offense will be noticeably less super powered next year. No Cole will make them worse on pitching. No big FA’s will want to go there during the investigation  

The Astros won’t be much better than a 90 win team next season. Book it. 

[Lou]

17 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Thaiss. Ohtani is going to get far less AB’s.  

he is? he only had 384 ABs last year.

[Troll Daddy]

12 minutes ago, Lou said:

he is? he only had 384 ABs last year.

Well since he didn’t play in April and not much in September ... I’ll concede a little and say he’ll get fewer AB’s per week. 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Why you so worried about the Astros offense ... cheating or not it’s far better than the Angels. Btw Bregman numbers were average at home and MVP caliber on the road. 

Personally, I’m very worried about our offense. La Stella and Goodwin were career best imo. I believe in Fletcher yet unsure about Upton. I expect Adell to struggle some next season when he gets his opportunity. AP is hard to predict ... the same goes for Thaiss. Ohtani is going to get far less AB’s. Catching I have no clue what to expect offensively. 

I’d feel a whole lot better if somehow we signed Josh Donaldson  The good news is I feel Eppler shares my concerns. 

 

 

I'm not any more worried about the Astros offense than I am any other team we play against proportionate to the amount we play them.  Another poster noted that they were better and they are likely even if they stop cheating so I was addressing that.  When a player cheats it changes how that player is approached at home or on the road.  I know you won't believe that and I don't expect you to so I'm not gonna spend time trying to convince you.  

All of your concerns are actually baked into the projections actually and it still leaves us with a top 6 offense.  People forget how good the offense was last year when everyone was healthy and all the right people were playing.  Eppler definitely does not share your concerns and if he goes for an offensive upgrade it means he missed out on all the worthwhile starting pitchers.  The lineup we have right now is what you'll see on opening day with the exception of a possible couple few mil on a catcher.  

[Docwaukee]

21 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Top 6th offense in baseball  ... wow, if that’s the case then I take it all back. It’s pretty apparent you know more than me. I guess that Castellanos rumor was just a rumor lol. 

I guess signing Cole and Wheeler is pretty much in the bag. Congratulations you’re definitely the best on line GM on this forum. 
 

 

sometimes I forget who I'm attempting to have a conversation with.  It's my own fault for engaging you.  

[Troll Daddy]

The thing is  ... if Eppler spends $60M on pitching the offense better show up or he will be packing his bags. The offense may look promising but you have to account for injuries. You can’t keep using the same tired excuse. 

Some say that Eppler is okay with the offense. I like to here Maddon’s take on it. 

[angelsnationtalk]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

there's video of them banging the trash can for pretty much every player including Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa.  

how good would Trout be if he knew what pitch was coming?  

I'm not sure how you can say it's been overblown.  the lengths they've gone to are literally insane to me.  

My god imagine if Trout started to know the pitch coming.... that would be even more scary of how good he'd be

[Blarg]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Also, I would subtract a cheating tax from the Astros total number.  Maybe 20% which actually brings them very close to the Halos/A's.  

It will be interesting to see if the Astros as a team take that kind of regression after getting aided for 3 seasons. If they do it could tumble them to a 88 win team if their pitching can't come through.