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Willson Contreras

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Honestly, this is just one of those off-season threads to pass the time. It's fun for fantasy baseball, terrible in real world practice, but we've got another 3 months before Spring Training. What the heck else are we going to do, other than argue about trading all the prospect depth for a meh defensive catcher? 

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47 minutes ago, ettin said:

Quite frankly, Contreras is a nice player but he is not worth as much as some here are thinking he does.

Perhaps, but given he has 3 years of control left, and is a very good hitter at the premium defensive position, The Cubs are going to ask for a lot in return. They absolutely will get at least one "Top 100" guy. Since Adell is a no, that leaves Marsh.

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48 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Perhaps, but given he has 3 years of control left, and is a very good hitter at the premium defensive position, The Cubs are going to ask for a lot in return. They absolutely will get at least one "Top 100" guy. Since Adell is a no, that leaves Marsh.

He may be good offensively but he is not too hot defensively which is what most teams value behind the dish. There is no point in having a not-so-great (not saying he's terrible but he is not great either) defensive player in a critical defensive spot. I think he pulls down a good prospect but not a great one. I think Marsh is just a bit too much as the centerpiece. I could see Jones or maybe Chris Rodriguez or some other good but not great prospect with 1-2 lesser types or maybe two Jones/Rodriguez type prospects for example.

One other thing to consider is that his arbitration costs are going to skyrocket if he continues hitting. The arbitration system still heavily values offense so his $4.5M this year could easily jump upwards of $8M in 2021 and $13M or so in 2022 (the latter of which is getting expensive). Basically every year that goes by his trade value massively decreases. That last year he will have maybe $5M-$10M in surplus value in all probability based on a presumed 2 WAR season in 2022.

Finally the other thing that we don't have insight into is how hot or not hot the catching market is and what teams are interested in Contreras. I suspect there is definite interest but demand will impact his price slightly too and that is hard to quantify with imperfect information (or just complete lack of information 😄 ).

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1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

That simulator must be off a little cuz this trade matches up perfectly based on their values:

Angels get:
Wilson Contreras (16.20 value)

Cubs get:
Justin Anderson (6.9)
Jahmai Jones (6.6)
Taylor Ward (2.7)
---Total value: 16.20---

If this is true (which it isn't) then that's a HUGE steal for the Angels. Ward and Jones likely don't have a spot on the depth chart with the Angels. 

 

I'll have to disagree with the Tobster here and state that this is not an unreasonable trade in terms of surplus value exchanging hands. Remember this is just a catcher who has good offensive value and approximately average defensive value (above average framer though). Most teams value strong defense behind the dish versus offensive value. Want to emphasize that I am not saying Willson is not a valuable player just that I don't believe his trade value is so high (based on his rising arbitration costs) that it will cost us one of our Top 4 prospects as the centerpiece of a deal.

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3 hours ago, Glen said:

The only way Cozart is getting traded is if we eat about 75% of his salary.

 

1 hour ago, Dick B Back said:

FIFY

This is actually pretty close to accurate.

At a $12.7M salary with a projected 0.5 WAR in 2020, his surplus value is roughly -$8M. So essentially he has a perceived "surplus value" of -$20M right now.

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The values might match up, but I’d argue the players don’t. The Cubs need MLB-ready help at 2B/lead-off. Ward doesn’t really have anything that they couldn’t find on a ST invite minor league deal. Anderson would fit a need but definitely not as a headlining piece, maybe a 2nd or 3rd. 

The trade value site is great as a tool to sort of stress test a frame of a deal, and I think some of the values they associate aren’t realistic, but it fails to acknowledge the multitude of other considerations that go into roster-building. Data and formula are a big part of the game now and I realize that, but GMs aren’t out there trying to get 16 points worth for their own 16 points, and because of that, the simulator will never really function right. 

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If they can get him without giving up Marsh, Adams or obviously Adell, I say do it.

I know he's meh defensively, but presumably, they keep Stassi or Smith or both as the backup. Contreras over the last three seasons hit to these numbers.

<script type="text/javascript" src="//widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fplayers%2Fc%2Fcontrwi01.shtml&div=div_batting_standard"></script>

He's been worth 3.9, 2.8 and 3.1 WAR. His fielding percentage as a Catcher is .987. He has a career 31% CS Percentage. He's graded as a average framer, yes, but to say he's not a good defender is to only focus on that one skill. He's basically a better fielding Mike Napoli, in his prime.

Yes you can sign Gomes or Chirinos but why not swing for the fences.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

This is actually pretty close to accurate.

At a $12.7M salary with a projected 0.5 WAR in 2020, his surplus value is roughly -$8M. So essentially he has a perceived "surplus value" of -$20M right now.

They actually rated him as -12.7 on the trade site, saying he's basically gonna get 0 WAR. Kimbrell Was around -20.

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6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

They actually rated him as -12.7 on the trade site, saying he's basically gonna get 0 WAR. Kimbrell Was around -20.

I figure his defense alone will get him 0.5 WAR in a part-time role which I think is reasonable but the bottom line is that he is a complete wild card with his surgery and how he will recover. Realistically any team would probably sign him to a Minor League deal only or maybe a Major League contract for no more than $1M.

But your point stands the site could be absolutely correct, no one knows.

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13 minutes ago, ettin said:

I figure his defense alone will get him 0.5 WAR in a part-time role which I think is reasonable but the bottom line is that he is a complete wild card with his surgery and how he will recover. Realistically any team would probably sign him to a Minor League deal only or maybe a Major League contract for no more than $1M.

But your point stands the site could be absolutely correct, no one knows.

Ya, that's why I'd flip him for an equally undesirable player in an area we actually need. If there was an overpaid catcher or an overpaid starter coming off an injury...as it is, even if he's back to full strength, he... at best is the utility infielder off the bench. And Rengifo then is in AAA.

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

The Cubs need MLB-ready help at 2B/lead-off. Ward doesn’t really have anything that they couldn’t find on a ST invite minor league deal. Anderson would fit a need but definitely not as a headlining piece.

I mentioned Fletcher for Contreras earlier because of their need at 2B. What do you think of Fletcher for Contreras straight up? The Cubs get their 2B and we get our Catcher.

I would send Rengifo and prospects to keep Fletcher depending on the Cubs needs. 

We still have Rengifo, La Stella and Thaiss for 2B and 3B. We could also go out and sign a 3B.

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13 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Ya, that's why I'd flip him for an equally undesirable player in an area we actually need. If there was an overpaid catcher or an overpaid starter coming off an injury...as it is, even if he's back to full strength, he... at best is the utility infielder off the bench. And Rengifo then is in AAA.

He could easily wind up platooning with La Stella at 3B in 2020, assuming he looks good in Spring Training.

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6 hours ago, RBM said:

I mentioned Fletcher for Contreras earlier because of their need at 2B. What do you think of Fletcher for Contreras straight up? The Cubs get their 2B and we get our Catcher.

I would send Rengifo and prospects to keep Fletcher depending on the Cubs needs. 

We still have Rengifo, La Stella and Thaiss for 2B and 3B. We could also go out and sign a 3B.

I mentioned Fletch for Contreras before as well.

Phils apparently interested in Didi. If they sign Didi maybe they’ll be willing to trade Caesar Hernandez finally. Fletcher for Contreras then send something over to the Phils for Hernandez.

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9 hours ago, ettin said:

Quite frankly, Contreras is a nice player but he is not worth as much as some here are thinking he does.

that's what I'm saying.  Realmuto is better and the Marlins got the equivalent of Marsh, Yan and a 1 WAR catcher.  

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24 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I mentioned Fletch for Contreras before as well.

Phils apparently interested in Didi. If they sign Didi maybe they’ll be willing to trade Caesar Hernandez finally. Fletcher for Contreras then send something over to the Phils for Hernandez.

phils might not even tender Hernandez a contract.  He's a super 2 and stands to make about 11-12 mil.    

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I don’t get why everyone is so willing to give up Fletcher.... we are talking about a guy who can be a 5 WAR player with stellar defense and can slap the ball all over the ballpark.... and he’s still young and under team control.... I say he’s the last 2nd baseman you trade. I’d give up Regnifo over Fletcher in a heartbeat.

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48 minutes ago, Bronson said:

I don’t get why everyone is so willing to give up Fletcher.... we are talking about a guy who can be a 5 WAR player with stellar defense and can slap the ball all over the ballpark.... and he’s still young and under team control.... I say he’s the last 2nd baseman you trade. I’d give up Regnifo over Fletcher in a heartbeat.

I don't think anyone is so willing. Fletcher is not a 5 WAR player but most people would give up Rengifo over Fletcher at this point.  Wait a couple years and you won't feel the same.  It's a discussion of what it would take  to get Contreras. That's probably what the cubs would ask for in a trade.  I'd rather keep Fletcher and sign a decent FA catcher.  

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26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't think anyone is so willing. Fletcher is not a 5 WAR player but most people would give up Rengifo over Fletcher at this point.  Wait a couple years and you won't feel the same.  It's a discussion of what it would take  to get Contreras. That's probably what the cubs would ask for in a trade.  I'd rather keep Fletcher and sign a decent FA catcher.  

He has the potential to be a 5 WAR player. He was basically a 4 WAR player last year. Yeah and Fletcher should be a non starter just like Adell is. He’s literally the guy I want up at the plate with the game on the line. Even over Trout. The dude is clutch and is the type of guy you want in the playoffs.

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15 minutes ago, Bronson said:

He has the potential to be a 5 WAR player. He was basically a 4 WAR player last year. Yeah and Fletcher should be a non starter just like Adell is. He’s literally the guy I want up at the plate with the game on the line. Even over Trout. The dude is clutch and is the type of guy you want in the playoffs.

let's not get carried away but otherwise I agree.  His discipline improved by leaps and bounds in 2019 and he might be a sneaky choice to win a batting title at some point.  

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On 11/22/2019 at 10:45 AM, Hubs said:

My trade package then is:

Jordyn Adams

Luis Rengifo

Jose Suarez

Andrew Heaney

Zack Cozart

 

for

Willson Contreras

Craig Kimbrell

 

 

Not a chance in Hell that I want to take on the remaining $30M of Kimbrel's contract, given the way that he stunk it up after arriving in Chicago - let alone also surrender starting pitching in a deal like this.

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