Tommy La Stella Expectations

[m0nkey]

What should a rational, reasonable fan (if they exist) expect from La Stella offensively in 2020?  A repeat of his shortened 2019 season of .830 OPS and 119 OPS +, his previous 5 years OPS of .710 and 94 OPS +, or his current career totals of .743 and 101 OPS +?

Is his swing change real, or was his 2019 just a small sample size with a juiced up ball?

[totdprods]

Something similar to last year, maybe a little less on the SLG/HR side (I think he was a little lucky with a few doubles eeking out at HRs given the discrepancy between the two) and a little better BA, as his BAbip was really, really low if I recall. 

But I do think the power increase wasn’t a total fluke. 

[Angel Oracle]

It depends on if they go back to the baseball used before 2019.

He’ll still be solid enough, maybe upper .700s OPS if the pre-2019 baseball, and low to mid .800s if the 2019 baseball.

One note though, he’s never had 500 at bats in a season.  If he plays just about every day, will he hold up well enough in September?

[Vlad27Trout27]

270-280/ 340-350 OBP/ 15-25 hrs

[angelsnationtalk]

Expectations? To not break a leg.

[Bronson]

20 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Expectations? To not break a leg.

Doh!!!!!

[Docwaukee]

some interesting stats for tommy boy:

2016:  169 PA - 15 xbh
2017:  151 PA - 13 xbh
2018:  192 PA - 10 xbh
2019:  321 PA - 24 xbh

so it appears that 2018 was more of an outlier than any of the other years.  So was his BABIP at .282 (actually a little low).   

His launch angle and exit velo from 2019 are almost spot on his career averages.  

the guy can hit.  last year was the first time in his career where he was given consistent plate appearances and we saw what happened.   There is nothing in his peripherals that make what he did last year all that odd.  The only other time he got that many PA in a season was his first year in 2014 at age 25.  

So I think .285/.350/.450 is a reasonable expectation.  He was also solid at 3b - not great but solid.  Not so good at 2b.  I would like to see him mix in at 1b/3b/DH this year and get a full season's worth of at bats.  I think he could end up a 3-4 WAR player.  

[ScruffytheJanitor]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

So I think .285/.350/.450 is a reasonable expectation.  He was also solid at 3b - not great but solid.  Not so good at 2b.  I would like to see him mix in at 1b/3b/DH this year and get a full season's worth of at bats.  I think he could end up a 3-4 WAR player.  

I see I am not the only one that wants La Stella at 3rd and Fletcher at 2nd, then.

[totdprods]

I liked his defense at 3B much more as well. 

[DMVol]

2 minutes ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

I see I am not the only one that wants La Stella at 3rd and Fletcher at 2nd, then.

I wonder if he figures in to the 1b equation, with Pujols likely to play more as a DH in 2020....

[angelsnationtalk]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

some interesting stats for tommy boy:

2016:  169 PA - 15 xbh
2017:  151 PA - 13 xbh
2018:  192 PA - 10 xbh
2019:  321 PA - 24 xbh

so it appears that 2018 was more of an outlier than any of the other years.  So was his BABIP at .282 (actually a little low).   

His launch angle and exit velo from 2019 are almost spot on his career averages.  

the guy can hit.  last year was the first time in his career where he was given consistent plate appearances and we saw what happened.   There is nothing in his peripherals that make what he did last year all that odd.  The only other time he got that many PA in a season was his first year in 2014 at age 25.  

So I think .285/.350/.450 is a reasonable expectation.  He was also solid at 3b - not great but solid.  Not so good at 2b.  I would like to see him mix in at 1b/3b/DH this year and get a full season's worth of at bats.  I think he could end up a 3-4 WAR player.  

Yeah you're totally right. As long as he gets at-bats then he should be fine.

[angelsnationtalk]

22 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I wonder if he figures in to the 1b equation, with Pujols likely to play more as a DH in 2020....

he does. 

[BackUpTheTruck]

I like La Stella at first, his power justifies it.

I think Rengifo/Fletcher have a high ceiling at 2B/3B.

[Billy_Ball]

Launch angle

[Adam]

Low. To quite low. 

[Adam]

The Angels have such bad luck they couldn't even sell high on La Stella last year

[Angel Oracle]

Pretty good depth will exist in the INF.

[AngelStew43]

I think he may go 10/55/.270.  If he plays 2B, those are good numbers.  That leaves Fletcher at 3B.  Fletcher could match those numbers with a bit of a power increase.  

I have a hunch, though, that Fletcher or LaStella may be on the move this winter.  We have a lot of middle infield depth.

 

[Hubs]

With the 26 man roster, I'd expect he and Fletcher to be the main guys at 2nd and 3rd, but Cozart if healthy and still on the team will get a some playing time, as will Rengifo and Thaiss who figure to get more.

If you think Fletcher plays all but one day a week. 5 of 6 or 6 of 7. Simmons probably figures for a similar amount. Say Fletcher splits his time between 2nd, 3rd, and also plays a little short. That's gonna mean say 60 starts at 2nd and 60 at 3rd, with like 15-20 at SS.

Pujols say gets 70 games at 1st and 60 as a DH. That leaves 90ish DH spots for Ohtani.

That leaves 100 at 3rd, 100 at 2nd, and 90 at 1st.

You'd have to figure that Thaiss gets the majority of the leftover 1st base starts and some at 3rd. Maybe 90 games total. He'll also be in the minors up and down unless he is raking.

That means LaStella gets say 75 at 3rd, 40 at 2nd and 15 at 1st? That's 130 starts. I suppose we hope he increases the 1st base time, or Fletcher plays some OF, or that Thaiss plays less

Rengifo then only gets 60 starts at 2nd unless this all happens.

It will be a fluid situation in the INF.

 

 

[Pancake Bear]

If Cozart is healthy, he’ll be traded as a salary dump if they can find a trade partner or, more likely, released. He won’t be playing for this team beyond Spring Training in 2020. 

[Duren, Duren]

La Stella could  be the decent quasi power hitting third baseman that the team needs. Even if he can produce close enough to last season's numbers pro rated.  He was technically an all star and then his season literally came to an abrupt end. 

Whether it was his new normal or a fluke will not be known until he has a chance to play. I think he deserves that chance to start regularly for at least a month or so to see where he stands post injury. 15 plus homers, 270 ish BA and 25 plus doubles would be a nice contribution, but he may potentially do better. Decent on defense, but also versatile enough to move around.

Fletcher at second would also provide solid offense and reliable defense from the infield. La Stella, Simmons and Fletcher all should hit for at least a 270 BA with double digit homers. First base will be ok if Pujols comes percentage wise in somewhere like last year for his at bats. And whoever he platoons/alternates with (Thaiss?) can provide some power.

The odd man out is Rengifo. Still young enough to play part time and contribute as a defensive replacement. With a lot of moving parts and the versatility of Fletcher and La Stella he could still be used situationally.

And as a trade piece if he can bring back someone of greater need in a package deal. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Is his swing change real, or was his 2019 just a small sample size with a juiced up ball?

I think a lot of this depends on what MLB does with the balls..   

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

some interesting stats for tommy boy:

2016:  169 PA - 15 xbh
2017:  151 PA - 13 xbh
2018:  192 PA - 10 xbh
2019:  321 PA - 24 xbh

so it appears that 2018 was more of an outlier than any of the other years.  So was his BABIP at .282 (actually a little low).   

His launch angle and exit velo from 2019 are almost spot on his career averages.  

the guy can hit.  last year was the first time in his career where he was given consistent plate appearances and we saw what happened. 

Also bouncy balls.

[Troll Daddy]

7 hours ago, AngelStew43 said:

I think he may go 10/55/.270.  If he plays 2B, those are good numbers.  That leaves Fletcher at 3B.  Fletcher could match those numbers with a bit of a power increase.  

I have a hunch, though, that Fletcher or LaStella may be on the move this winter.  We have a lot of middle infield depth.

 

Fletcher isn’t going anywhere but in the starting lineup. La Stella could likely be a trade candidate ... sell high! If not I’m not convinced that he’s a starter. He’ll have to earn that in ST. 

I believe he will be a FA after 2020 and may cost us $2M plus this season. 
 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

I've got a feelin' La Stella will have another All Star season. If we sign Cole and 1 more above average starter I'm convinced we will make the playoffs. Once we're in the playoffs anything is possible.

[totdprods]

15 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Fletcher isn’t going anywhere but in the starting lineup. La Stella could likely be a trade candidate ... sell high! If not I’m not convinced that he’s a starter. He’ll have to earn that in ST. 

I believe he will be a FA after 2020 and may cost us $2M plus this season. 

Hard to believe La Stella has that much value with just one year remaining before FA. He has some, no doubt, but the Angels are gonna want something in return based off last year, and an acquiring club is going to want to pay something closer resembling La Stella’s career value. The Angels got him for a fringe minor league reliever. 

I really, really doubt Fletcher is traded, nor do I want to see him traded, but his trade value is probably exceptional at this point.

Rengifo seems likeliest to be traded. And while it would sting to lose a prospect like him in a trade, it would be a pretty savvy move cashing in a prospect received for basically a non-tender in Cron into solid pitching. Making good use of an asset. 

If Robbie Ray’s price tag comes down, I could see something like Rengifo (maybe with lower-level lotto ticket or two) for Ray, maybe another minor piece like a reliever or Lamb.

Edited November 19, 2019 by totdprods