Finding Value in Free Agency...

[Claude]

21 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

And he can backload the contract. Pujols is off the books in 2 years. Upton in 3. That's $58 million off the books by 2023. So they can look at the next 3 years as going "all-in". 

Just fuckin do it Arturo.

Why don't they get Pujols off the roster now? Can you reasonably conclude that he is going to be at any championship ring ceremony with Trout in the next two seasons. They need to clear that roster spot. 

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Why don't they get Pujols off the roster now? Can you reasonably conclude that he is going to be at any championship ring ceremony with Trout in the next two seasons. They need to clear that roster spot. 

Not happening and you know it already.

[Blarg]

Why don't you move back to Canada and wait for the Nationals to return to Montreal?

[tdawg87]

I'd argue having Pujols on the roster the next 2 years is crucial for the Angels. We all know about the money and production, but he's a clubhouse leader and the perfect guy to have when Adell and Marsh get called up. 

At this point any production he adds is just a bonus and we also have no one better to replace him. He's not getting released because of the message that sends the clubhouse. At worst, he loses playing time. 

Discussion over.

[Claude]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'd argue having Pujols on the roster the next 2 years is crucial for the Angels. We all know about the money and production, but he's a clubhouse leader and the perfect guy to have when Adell and Marsh get called up. 

At this point any production he adds is just a bonus and we also have no one better to replace him. He's not getting released because of the message that sends the clubhouse. At worst, he loses playing time. 

Discussion over.

With all due respect from what we've learned it looks like our clubhouse was a secret train wreck the past 2-3 seasons.  The clubhouse leader should be the league MVP Mike Trout. 

[tdawg87]

19 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

With all due respect from what we've learned it looks like our clubhouse was a secret train wreck the past 2-3 seasons.  The clubhouse leader should be the league MVP Mike Trout. 

"With all due respect" I think every team has drug problems behind the scenes. Skaggs was just (unfortunately) a casualty of said problems. It is in no way unique to the Angels, other than the obvious death of one of their pitchers.

A "clubhouse leader" isn't a babysitter. He's someone who inspires the team on the field.

That's all I'm going to say on the topic. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

We need four inning eater starters that can start between 28 - 34 games. That should keep us in the mix. Enough with these remedy temps. 

Who is advocating for a four inning remedy pitcher?   

Gibson has averaged 5.8 IP per start for his career. He's managed 2.6 fWAR or better in four of his 6 full seasons and never failed to exceed 1.0 fWAR.

His 13.0 fWAR since 2014 ranks 39th among all MLB SPs, ahead of names like Ryu, Darvish, Wheeler, Robbie Ray, Teheran, Leake.

 

[Chuck]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Who is advocating for a four inning remedy pitcher?   

Gibson has averaged 5.8 IP per start for his career. He's managed 2.6 fWAR or better in four of his 6 full seasons and never failed to exceed 1.0 fWAR.

His 13.0 fWAR since 2014 ranks 39th among all MLB SPs, ahead of names like Ryu, Darvish, Wheeler, Robbie Ray, Teheran, Leake.

 

Yeah I really like Gibson as a 3rd option if we skip out on Gerrit Cole but land a Wheeler and one of Bumgarner or Ryu. 

[Claude]

14 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Who is advocating for a four inning remedy pitcher?   

Gibson has averaged 5.8 IP per start for his career. He's managed 2.6 fWAR or better in four of his 6 full seasons and never failed to exceed 1.0 fWAR.

His 13.0 fWAR since 2014 ranks 39th among all MLB SPs, ahead of names like Ryu, Darvish, Wheeler, Robbie Ray, Teheran, Leake.

 

I meant to say that we need 4 pitchers that are inning eaters. 

[Inside Pitch]

24 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah I really like Gibson as a 3rd option if we skip out on Gerrit Cole but land a Wheeler and one of Bumgarner or Ryu. 

2017-2019 (last three)

Ryu -387.2 IP, 7.2 fWAR

MB - 448.1 IP, 6.2 fWAR

 KG - 509.1 IP, 6.2 fWAR

People are under-valuing Gibson because of a lack of name recognition.

[Inside Pitch]

4 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I meant to say that we need 4 pitchers that are inning eaters. 

Okay.... Name four innings eaters youd like to see them add.  I'm sure you have a list of smart moves the Yankees would make, so share those  names with us.

[Docwaukee]

I picked Gibson as one of the three moves I see the Angels making this winter.  

His fastball velo is listed at 93.7 avg on FG.  tops out near 97.  He's been one of my top choices as a secondary guy for the halos to add.  

The Angels did go away from having guys throw many sinkers last year and Gibson is essentially a sinker ball guy so I agree he doesn't seem like an Eppler match, but with Callaway around, maybe that philosophy changes a bit this year.  

I really like the idea of his BABIP normalizing with the halos.  

I also think people need to temper their expectations on getting that third arm for the rotation.  It's just not gonna happen in the form of a high priced FA signing.  It'll be two guy.  One will be expensive and one will be cheap.  If their's a third name that ends up making the team it's because they found a peanut on the cheap and turned him into something.  

There's a couple of schools of thought on how to approach looking for pitchers.  Like they learned from 2019, it's risky to sign a guy with a certain skill set and pitch mix and then try to turn him into something he's never been with better sequencing and tunneling etc.  Or you can look at a guys raw numbers and think that by putting him in a better situation with the team around him defensively etc that those numbers and performance would improve even if he pitches similarly to the previous years.  Not in the misguided way that Dipoto tried to do with Blanton, but with guys who have numbers that actually translate to quality peformance like ip mentioned such as GB rates, LOB rates, and BABIP relative to that.  

Another guy on that list who I like in terms of value is Colin McHugh.  He could be a Petit type guy and get you 120 innings as a spot starter or multi inning reliever.  The pitching staff in 2017 lacked talent big time (mostly because all of the talent was injured) but at least somewhat held their own because of guys like Petit, Chavez and Ramirez chewing up some innings.  Granted, we can and need to be better than that but I personally see a lot of value in a strong multi-inning guy.    

[Docwaukee]

btw, Gibson would be a nice get as an early move and leave some room to add a decent or even very good catcher.  

I like the crowd source numbers on Cole.  7/224?  I can live with that.  

A potential 3rd guy that might be had for anywhere from a couple mil to even a minor league contract is Martin Perez.  He'd be an interesting project.  

[Inside Pitch]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I picked Gibson as one of the three moves I see the Angels making this winter.  

His fastball velo is listed at 93.7 avg on FG.  tops out near 97.  He's been one of my top choices as a secondary guy for the halos to add.  

The Angels did go away from having guys throw many sinkers last year and Gibson is essentially a sinker ball guy so I agree he doesn't seem like an Eppler match, but with Callaway around, maybe that philosophy changes a bit this year.  

I really like the idea of his BABIP normalizing with the halos.  

Good call on the velo data....  I looked at the initial FG data instead of the four/two seam figure which differentiates between the two FBs.   Looks like he is trending up in that department.... Whether it actually helped or hurt its too early to tell....  But check out the Brooks data...

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=502043&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=11/16/2019&s_type=2

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

btw, Gibson would be a nice get as an early move and leave some room to add a decent or even very good catcher.  

I like the crowd source numbers on Cole.  7/224?  I can live with that.  

A potential 3rd guy that might be had for anywhere from a couple mil to even a minor league contract is Martin Perez.  He'd be an interesting project.  

They absolutely need to lock someone in early.   Waiting on Cole is a recipe for disaster.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Good call on the velo data....  I looked at the initial FG data instead of the four/two seam figure which differentiates between the two FBs.   Looks like he is trending up in that department.... Whether it actually helped or hurt its too early to tell....  But check out the Brooks data...

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=502043&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=11/16/2019&s_type=2

tying into the Matt Boyd discussion, I know they aren't super similar when it comes to who they are as pitchers, and while Boyd is younger and cheaper, they both seem like they'd settle into a similar role.  Mediocre innings eater yet with Gibson, you don't have to give anything up.  They do both seem like there could be more there if you can help them figure it out, but that's filled with risk of course.  

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They absolutely need to lock someone in early.   Waiting on Cole is a recipe for disaster.

if the crowd is right, I'd be trying to lock up Wheeler at the numbers list in a heartbeat but I think it's gonna be a lot closer to 5/100.  

I can't believe they still have Keuchel that high.  no chance he gets 4 years.  He might not even get 3.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

tying into the Matt Boyd discussion, I know they aren't super similar when it comes to who they are as pitchers, and while Boyd is younger and cheaper, they both seem like they'd settle into a similar role.  Mediocre innings eater yet with Gibson, you don't have to give anything up.  They do both seem like there could be more there if you can help them figure it out, but that's filled with risk of course.  

Yep, for me it's 100% about holding on to the prospect capital.   We have already seen Marsh's profile apparently spike after his showing in the AFL, we have others who will like follow suit as they move into better hitter environments. 

Beyond that those cheap guys will give them greater flexibility...  

[Inside Pitch]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if the crowd is right, I'd be trying to lock up Wheeler at the numbers list in a heartbeat but I think it's gonna be a lot closer to 5/100.  

I can't believe they still have Keuchel that high.  no chance he gets 4 years.  He might not even get 3.  

I've been the Wheeler train a long time...  He's choice 1b for me.  I just think he makes a lot of sense for multiple teams and may actually be the guy teams bid against each other for.   I'm hoping the QO hit scares off some teams...

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yep, for me it's 100% about holding on to the prospect capital.   We have already seen Marsh's profile apparently spike after his showing in the AFL, we have others who will like follow suit as they move into better hitter environments. 

Beyond that those cheap guys will give them greater flexibility...  

really interested to see who's gonna take off in 2020.  I think we'll finally start to get some guys filling the big talent gap we have at A+/AA.  

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've been the Wheeler train a long time...  He's choice 1b for me.  I just think he makes a lot of sense for multiple teams and may actually be the guy teams bid against each other for.   I'm hoping the QO hit scares off some teams...

I'm starting to believe that we'd never go after both Cole and Weaver.  I think it'll be the secondary guy early and then we'll go after Cole while continuing to check in on Zack.  

That's the one thing that could really screw us this winter is timing.  If the Cole market isn't moving and Billy feels obligated to jump to someone else and then take us out of the running.  

Like you've mentioned, this is Arte's off season.  They need to be aggressive on their target and dictate the market to some degree.  What may happen is that the Angels end up having to pay a little extra to get the guys they really want on their timeline.  

[Claude]

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Okay.... Name four innings eaters youd like to see them add.  I'm sure you have a list of smart moves the Yankees would make, so share those  names with us.

Maybe they should ask their 2002 team. Dudes made their starts and grinned out innings. No pussification.  

[Stradling]

another narrative bites the dust. 

[Inside Pitch]

16 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Maybe they should ask their 2002 team. Dudes made their starts and grinned out innings. No pussification.  

I asked you.   You're the one making the statement... I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that you aren't just simply trolling and trying to derail a conversation like you always do.  So, how about you reward that faith in you by simply answering the question.   What four innings eaters should they target?   How about taking a position for a change instead of waiting for them to do something and then criticizing the move.   

You championed the Yankees signing Happ last year -- he averaged 5.3 IP per start last year.  Tanaka their ace averaged 5.8.  Paxton, no doubt someone you view as one of those smart moves the Yankees make averaged 5.1 IP a start.. CC Sabathia came in at less than 5 IP per start..   The guy in the form fitting white tank top similarly averaged less than 6 IP per start.

What's your opinion of the Yankees' pussified rotation?   No doubt they could use some innings eaters too.

[DCAngelsFan]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'm starting to believe that we'd never go after both Cole and Wheeler.  I think it'll be the secondary guy early and then we'll go after Cole while continuing to check in on Zack.  

That's the one thing that could really screw us this winter is timing.  If the Cole market isn't moving and Billy feels obligated to jump to someone else and then take us out of the running.  

Like you've mentioned, this is Arte's off season.  They need to be aggressive on their target and dictate the market to some degree.  What may happen is that the Angels end up having to pay a little extra to get the guys they really want on their timeline.  

I'm afraid there's a little too much interest in Wheeler - I think your 4/100 is probably closer to reality.  He's got a fine arsenal of pitches and *could* be an ace with just a little nip and tuck; I'm sure lots of GM's are convincing themselves they could help him make that adjustment, and become an ace.

Our hiring of Callaway might suggest we have a plan for Wheeler.  (which doesn't tell us anything about *his* preferences.)  

I'd love to sign Wheeler *and* Cole - but seems a stretch. 

Conventional wisdom has Strasburg staying in DC to get a better extension - but if Boras puts him in play, the market will really seize up - the Nats have the room to pursue  both Cole *and* Wheeler if Strasburg and Rendon both leave.  That rotation would be sick ...

Our need is so great we really can't afford to sign one guy, say Gibson, and enter March with Cole the only high-end guy still on the market.  Boras would love that bidding war - (insert some tdawg-provided gif here) - but I don't think we can afford to be in that auction, and lose.  Gibson our only sign this offseason would be a disaster.  

If Cole wants to play for the Angels, and I'm all-but certain he does, then he needs to sign early.  He may not get every last nickel, but he'll still be rich, playing on the team he wants to play for, and the team will be more competitive for it, letting us move on to secondary signings before the market dries up.  Hell, give him that 7/224 with a opt out after 3 if that's what it takes.  

As much as I want him, we can't be hung out to dry. 

(sorry for the stream-of-consciousness rambling)