Expect a big trade soon

[Troll Daddy]

If we’re going to sign a FA 3B  ... sign Donaldson to a 3 year deal. 

[Docwaukee]

22 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

First, where did you get your number? Per Fangraphs, we were 12th with a 4.2 WAR. It would’ve been higher if La Stella hadn’t been injured and we weren’t playing Thaiss there as much. 

Second, Moustakas is a worse player than either Fletcher or La Stella and he’s on the wrong side of 30. 

He fills no hole at all that I can see. What am I missing?

If you click on the 3b tab on fangraphs it gives you the cumulative for a player that played there and not just for when they played there.  

you have to select 3b on the drop down tab to separate it.  when you do that, I am showing it at 0.9 WAR.  

your point stands though that both Fletch and La Stella being there most of the time will actually leave the halos in the middle of the pack for 3b production at worst.  

[Rally Gorilla]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

If you click on the 3b tab on fangraphs it gives you the cumulative for a player that played there and not just for when they played there.  

you have to select 3b on the drop down tab to separate it.  when you do that, I am showing it at 0.9 WAR.  

your point stands though that both Fletch and La Stella being there most of the time will actually leave the halos in the middle of the pack for 3b production at worst.  

I used:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi       

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

I used:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi       

that's wins above average.  not WAR.  

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

I used:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi       

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2019&lg=MLB&stat=WAR

[Second Base]

Believe it or not, the Angels are already acquiring an all-star 3B. They lost Tommy La Stella midday through last year, and when he returned at the end of the year, it was simply him getting back on the field. He wasn't going to have any timing or momentum in his favor.

So coming into next year, having La Stella as the starting 3B is like adding an elite bat to the top of the lineup.

That and adding Justin Upton back is essentially the equivalent of signing a borderline all-star LF.

Any team that gets to add that degree of talent to a team in one winter, would have to see that as anything but a hugely successful winter. The Angels are doing that without having to add any payroll. Throw in a couple high priced starting pitchers like Cole and Ryu and suddenly the Angels go from a 72 win team to legitimate World Series contender.

Edited November 15, 2019 by Second Base

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Believe it or not, the Angels are already acquiring an all-star 3B. They lost Tommy La Stella midday through last year, and when he returned at the end of the year, it was simply him getting back on the field. He wasn't going to have cash any timing or momentum in his favor.

So coming into next year, having La Stella as the starting 3B is kine adding an elite bat to the top of the lineup.

That and adding Justin Upton back is essentially the equivalent of signing a borderline all-start LF.

Any team that gets to add that degree of talent to a team in one winter, would have to see that as anything but a hugely successful winter. The Angels are doing that without having to add any payroll. Throw in a couple high proceed starting others like Cole and Ryu and suddenly the Angels go from a 72 win team to legitimate World Series contender.

Simmons also. He was a five win player two years before last season where he was injured half the year. 2018 was his best offensive season. Either way you think of it, he’s looking at a solid 2 win upgrade.

[Troll Daddy]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Believe it or not, the Angels are already acquiring an all-star 3B. They lost Tommy La Stella midday through last year, and when he returned at the end of the year, it was simply him getting back on the field. He wasn't going to have any timing or momentum in his favor.

So coming into next year, having La Stella as the starting 3B is like adding an elite bat to the top of the lineup.

That and adding Justin Upton back is essentially the equivalent of signing a borderline all-star LF.

Any team that gets to add that degree of talent to a team in one winter, would have to see that as anything but a hugely successful winter. The Angels are doing that without having to add any payroll. Throw in a couple high priced starting pitchers like Cole and Ryu and suddenly the Angels go from a 72 win team to legitimate World Series contender.

Tommy is a poor man’s All Star imo. He had a great year but can it be duplicated?

[Second Base]

Just now, Troll Daddy said:

Tommy is a poor man’s All Star imo. He had a great year but can it be duplicated?

That will be interesting to find out. The launch angle was obviously a huge factor in the power surge, as was the short porch in RF and the ball flying further. I think it all came together and the result was a very confident hitter with all sorts of momentum.

Next year, there are whispers that Manfred is going to go back to the more deadened ball, so HR's will likely decrease. But the launch angle and short porch will still be beneficial.

I wouldn't expect Tommy to remain at a 30+ HR pace, but 20-25 still seems reasonable if he stays healthy. The batting average and OBP have always been solid throughout his career so I don't expect those will change much either.

[Rally Gorilla]

14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

that's wins above average.  not WAR.  

You're right.   My bad.     I need to be more careful.  

My point though is still valid.    Moose   (if we can get him) would be a nice improvement and give us room to also improve in other positions.

[Brandon]

19 hours ago, Fish Oil said:

Speaking about the Orioles, what about Chris Davis' teammate John Means?
Second in ROY voting. He had a very good year especially pitching in home run happy Camden and the AL East. The O's are deep in rebuild mode so they might consider a package centered around Marsh.

So let me get this straight.....

A team in rebuild mode would trade someone that just got 2nd in ROY voting?

[Pancake Bear]

8 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

You're right.   My bad.     I need to be more careful.  

My point though is still valid.    Moose   (if we can get him) would be a nice improvement and give us room to also improve in other positions.

How so?

Fletcher is worse offensively, but his defensive value (and especially cost) puts him well ahead of Moustakas.

La Stella was just as good as Moustakas last season in the amount of time he played. And again, he costs nothing. 

Run the numbers. Moustakas is not an upgrade. If you think he is, please demonstrate specifically how he improves the team. 

[Rally Gorilla]

Ok, since I posted a bad stat earlier, I am seeking to atone for my sin by posting our WAR and MLB rank for each position:

 

Staring pitching:  0.8   (30th)

Catcher:  -.07   (28th)

1B:   -0.1   (27th)

2B:  2.8   (11th)

3B:  1.9  (21st)

SS:  2.8  (15th)

LF:   0.9  (22nd)

CF:  7.9  (Numero uno)

RF:  2.5  (13th)

 

(edit)  I better post my source in case I screw something up again.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2019&lg=MLB&stat=WAR

[Rally Gorilla]

14 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Run the numbers. Moustakas is not an upgrade. If you think he is, please demonstrate specifically how he improves the team. 

Our total WAR from the 3B postion was 1.9 last season  (21st in MLB)....  Moustakas had a WAR of 3.2 by himself.

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Ok, since I posted a bad stat earlier, I am seeking to atone for my sin by posting our WAR and MLB rank for each position:

 

Staring pitching:  0.8   (30th)

Catcher:  -.07   (28th)

1B:   -0.1   (27th)

2B:  2.8   (11th)

3B:  1.9  (21st)

SS:  2.8  (15th)

LF:   0.9  (22nd)

CF:  7.9  (Numero uno)

RF:  2.5  (13th)

 

(edit)  I better post my source in case I screw something up again.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2019&lg=MLB&stat=WAR

 

4 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Our total WAR from the 3B postion was 1.9 last season  (21st in MLB)....  Moustakas had a WAR of 3.2 by himself.

 

I'm still not sure what you're looking at, but this is Fangraphs on the top 15 teams at 3B. I'm not sure how to check that info at Baseball Reference, but based on other stuff I'm checking, I don't think your numbers are accurate.

In a minute, I'll post a quick comparison of the players in question to demonstrate again that Moustakas is a downgrade for us.

[Rally Gorilla]

8 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

 

 

I'm still not sure what you're looking at, but this is Fangraphs on the top 15 teams at 3B. I'm not sure how to check that info at Baseball Reference, but based on other stuff I'm checking, I don't think your numbers are accurate.

In a minute, I'll post a quick comparison of the players in question to demonstrate again that Moustakas is a downgrade for us.

I'm not sure at all how the difference between the two sites could be so large....Angels being ranked 21st on baseball-reference and 12th on Fangraphs.    I'm sure someone will enlighten us.

BTW, after looking at all the positions,  I'm starting to agree with you that 3B is not nearly as much as a need as SP, C, and 1B.

[Pancake Bear]

34 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

You're right.   My bad.     I need to be more careful.  

My point though is still valid.    Moose   (if we can get him) would be a nice improvement and give us room to also improve in other positions.

 

7 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

Our total WAR from the 3B postion was 1.9 last season  (21st in MLB)....  Moustakas had a WAR of 3.2 by himself.

Name	Age	WAR        2019	HR	AVG	OBP	OPS	OPS+	wRC+
Moustakas	31	3.2, 2.8	35	254	329	845	114	113
La Stella	31	1.5, 2.0	16	295	346	832	119	122
Fletcher	25	3.8, 3.4	6	290	350	734	97	99
Rengifo	22	1.6, 1.2	7	238	321	685	84	86

WAR is bWAR followed by fWAR.

I'm including Rengifo because he is our backup 2B, who would lose playing time if Moustakas was brought in. 

As you can see, Moustakas is as old as La Stella and well older than our other infield options. He's better offensively than all but La Stella, but it's worth noting that his OPS+ was only 107 in 2018, and his wRC+ was 105. That's barely above average. 

BRef gives him more credit for his defense than FG does. But in either case, he's about equal to La Stella this season on BRef and worse on FG. Fletcher beats him cleanly in both, despite his superior offense (also, Fletcher fits Maddon's play style better - more station to station, less power focus). 

Moustakas has a mediocre average and league average (I think?) OBP. La Stella and Fletch are above average in both. Moustakas hits for better power. Although OPS+ and wRC+ (all around batting stats) both give the offensive edge to La Stella (admittedly, in only half a season).

Rengifo is obviously worse, but at age 22 with better defense, I'd still take Rengifo as a backup than Moustakas as a starter because Rengifo has room to improve. Moustakas probably doesn't.

Moustakas is estimated to receive anything from 10m (MLBTR) to 16m (FG) on a multiyear deal. Hard pass.

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

I'm not sure at all how the difference between the two sites could be so large....Angels being ranked 21st on baseball-reference and 12th on Fangraphs.    I'm sure someone will enlighten us.

BTW, after looking at all the positions,  I'm starting to agree with you that 3B is not nearly as much as a need as SP, C, and 1B.

I think you're looking at the wrong thing again. Admittedly, I don't know how to find that info on BR, so I could be wrong on that.

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

 

 

I'm still not sure what you're looking at, but this is Fangraphs on the top 15 teams at 3B. I'm not sure how to check that info at Baseball Reference, but based on other stuff I'm checking, I don't think your numbers are accurate.

In a minute, I'll post a quick comparison of the players in question to demonstrate again that Moustakas is a downgrade for us.

I explained it earlier.  Go to the drop down that states 'full season' on fangraphs team stats page.  then pick 3b.  what you are posting is the total war for all the players that may have played 3b.  So the halos are getting credit for David Fletcher total in the one you posted.  not just when he played 3b.  

that being said, moustakas had 2.8 fWAR last year and LaStella/Fletcher combined for 2.2 WAR at 3b in fewer appearances.  So Moustakas really isn't an upgrade if Tommy can be how he was.  

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

I think you're looking at the wrong thing again. Admittedly, I don't know how to find that info on BR, so I could be wrong on that.

NM, I see what you're looking at. Here's the reason for that:

Thaiss, Cozart, Cowart, and Ward combined for around 235 PA. Only Thaiss is likely to see much playing time this year unless we have more health issues. See the comparison of our depth chart on the infield I made above. 

[T.G.]

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Dochalo said:

I explained it earlier.  Go to the drop down that states 'full season' on fangraphs team stats page.  then pick 3b.  what you are posting is the total war for all the players that may have played 3b.  So the halos are getting credit for David Fletcher total in the one you posted.  not just when he played 3b.  

that being said, moustakas had 2.8 fWAR last year and LaStella/Fletcher combined for 2.2 WAR at 3b in fewer appearances.  So Moustakas really isn't an upgrade if Tommy can be how he was.  

Fair, but the reason I'm including his overall total is because it isn't 1 position we're looking at ultimately, it's 2. Both La Stella and Fletcher play the two positions. That's why it's relevant.

[Pancake Bear]

FWIW, the Angels ranked 11th at BRef on 2B and 12 on FG.

[Rally Gorilla]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

I think you're looking at the wrong thing again.

(face palm)   I see now,  the Fangraphs was just for AL.    So being ranked 12th  is not doing so well.   I think I'll stop while I'm behind.

 

Anyway,  when you look at how poorly we did at SP, 1B and C last season,   I am now in agreement with you that we should give the in-house guys a chance and spend our FA efforts on positions more in need.

 

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Rally Gorilla said:

(face palm)   I see now,  the Fangraphs was just for AL.    So being ranked 12th  is not doing so well.   I think I'll stop while I'm behind.

 

Anyway,  when you look at how poorly we did at SP, 1B and C last season,   I am now in agreement with you that we should give the in-house guys a chance and spend our FA efforts on positions more in need.

 

Dunno how realistic change is at 1B, unfortunately.