OC Register: Eppler open to trading youngsters for pitching

[Hubs]

29 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I wouldn't do Rengifo for Boyd straight up.   

Boyd is a career 5.00 Era guy who in a career for season posted a 4.56 ERA.  His career best FIP is last years 4.32, a season that saw him completely implode the second half, the K/9 stayed strong but everything else went boom.  His 2020 projection has him putting up numbers in line with his career trajectory.  As Fletcher said, he's just not that good.

Rengifo's upside and still 6 years of control outweighs whatever value is left in Boyds three years of control....   Now, if they'd consider LaStella and Barria, you listen.

Gotta trade assets to get assets.

If not Boyd then, how about Gray or someone else?

I have a feeling they move someone for pitching from the infield surplus. Maybe Hermosillo if he has any value. And I think it will be a bigger deal than we expect.

[Dick B Back]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Gotta trade assets to get assets.

If not Boyd then, how about Gray or someone else?

I have a feeling they move someone for pitching from the infield surplus. Maybe Hermosillo if he has any value. And I think it will be a bigger deal than we expect.

Herm < decent pitcher of any sort.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Whatever clicked must have un-clicked when he had ERA's of 5.90, 4.70, 7.16 and 4.43 over the last 4 months of the season.  I'm sure there's some advanced metrics that say he could be better (like you can find for damn near every player) but he wouldn't be the first or last high K pitcher who didn't put it together.  Do I think that's a given?  Absolutely not but unless the cost comes down quite a bit from what they were asking at the deadline it's a risky move for a team that needs 2-3 starting pitchers because acquiring him means the rest is on FA.  He's pitched more than 180 innings in the majors once in his career.  Not sure if the lack of innings was because of poor production, innings management or injury but not sure you can count on him as being durable just yet.   

Really, it just came down to allowing more HRs. ERA is a poor thing to go by on a month to month, as the the sample size here is small.

• April/March - 3.13 ERA, 37.1IP: 
  • H9: 6.8, BB9: 2.4, HR9: 0.5, K9: 11.6
• May - 2.55 ERA, 35.1 IP:
  • H9: 7.9, BB9: 1.2, HR9: 1.2, K9: 10.2
• June - 5.90 ERA, 29 IP:
  • H9: 9.9, BB9: 1.5, HR9: 3.1, K9: 12.7
• July - 4.70 ERA, 30.2 IP:
  • H9: 8.5, BB9: 2.6, HR9: 1.5, K9: 14.3
• August - 7.16 ERA, 32.2 IP:
  • H9: 8.5, BB9: 3.9, HR9: 3.9, K9: 11.3
• September/October - 4.43 ERA, 20.1 IP:
  • H9: 12, BB9: 3.1, HR9: 1.3, K9: 8.4

Matt Boyd had a strikeout-per-9 of 7.7 over 460 IP in his career prior to this year, and suddenly he's posting an absolutely filthy increase in strikeouts - consistently - all season, pretty much every month, except September, but 20 innings can go either way, and he still was over his career-norm. 

He was walloped by HRs in June (10 in 29 IP) and August (14 allowed in 32.2 IP) - three in one game against Texas, three in one game against Cleveland, four in one game against Minnesota, four in one game against Seattle, and three in one game against Kansas City. 
Consider that Detroit lost 114 games last year, it's entirely possible too that he 1) wasn't really all that fired up in August after not being dealt to a contender and 2) was left in a little too long because why else would Detroit care? 

The hit and walk rates were all fairly normal for his career norm, or came with no crazy deviations - he just gave up a few too many home runs here and there, and in the year of the HR, that's not too unbelievable. HRs can be a little fluky. An increase of 3-4 strikeouts per 9 consistent over a season is hard to call a fluke. He still has some issues with hittability and control - the hit and walk rates aren't great - but I think it's fair to say his ERA could be a little inflated here simply due to bad luck, some fluke HRs, a loss of interest pitching for a historically bad team, and a historically bad team overusing him in certain games. 

I wouldn't part with anyone really integral for him, but I think he'd be a great candidate to consider trading for if the cost is fair, and seeing what good defense, Callaway, and the marine layer can do for him, and letting his reasonable arb. salary allow the Angels to work some other moves this winter via FA.

 

[T.G.]

Matt Boyd?

Still?

Really?

Matt Boyd?

Really?

No, really?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seriously?

 

[Inside Pitch]

21 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Gotta trade assets to get assets.

If not Boyd then, how about Gray or someone else?

I have a feeling they move someone for pitching from the infield surplus. Maybe Hermosillo if he has any value. And I think it will be a bigger deal than we expect.

Do you consider Heaney an asset?   Would you trade Rengifo for Heaney?   I just dont view Boyd as anything other than a back end guy, there is value in the innings, but not someone I view as worth trading for.   I'd much sooner move on Gray than Boyd, but my preference is to pursue pitchers with $$ this offseason.

[tdawg87]

I agree that if we're gonna get pitchers we should spend the money. 

Losing 2 draft picks would suck balls, though. 

I don't think Miley costs a pick.....

Fuck 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree that if we're gonna get pitchers we should spend the money. 

Losing 2 draft picks would suck balls, though. 

I don't think Miley costs a pick.....

Fuck 

Yep.....

You know I'm a big "build the farm" guy but at this point of our farm system's development a draft pick is just an unrealized prospect.   Is it really worse to lose a 3rd round pick or a guy that's proven himself capable through the upper minors and appears ready to help now?  It's debatable IMO....  More importantly the Angels will retain their number 1 pick no matter what happens.  Losing the dollars attached to a 2nd and 3rd round pick will hurt no doubt, but they would be better served holding on to guys capable of helping now and in the near future than moving them for someone who is essentially Andew Heaney.

Seriously...   

2019
AH -- 1.290 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 11.1 K/9
MB -- 1.230 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 2.4 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 11.6 K/9
Career
AH -- 1.250 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 1.6 HR/9. 2.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9
MB -- 1.320 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9

As you pointed out -- Wade Miley is there for the taking...  

[ettin]

10 hours ago, totdprods said:

This feels more realistic becomes it also seems to be a little more under-the-radar like Eppler prefers to operate. Taking back an expensive Rockies RP makes sense too.

I know I’ll get torched for it, but Ian Desmond has crushed lefties in his career and the last two seasons - a .977 OPS last season - and could perhaps replace Cozart in a salary swap  and/or Thaiss/Rengifo (assuming they’re dealt for Gray) as an expensive UT player whose strengths fit our needs a little better than Cozart does. I’m not advocating it, but if it involves swapping him and Cozart and saving some top prospects in a Gray deal I think it’s pique my interest.

Since many of us religiously follow and read MLBTraderRumors.com we should probably reference the source:

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-11-11-19-6390.html

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Really, it just came down to allowing more HRs. ERA is a poor thing to go by on a month to month, as the the sample size here is small.

• April/March - 3.13 ERA, 37.1IP: 
  • H9: 6.8, BB9: 2.4, HR9: 0.5, K9: 11.6
• May - 2.55 ERA, 35.1 IP:
  • H9: 7.9, BB9: 1.2, HR9: 1.2, K9: 10.2
• June - 5.90 ERA, 29 IP:
  • H9: 9.9, BB9: 1.5, HR9: 3.1, K9: 12.7
• July - 4.70 ERA, 30.2 IP:
  • H9: 8.5, BB9: 2.6, HR9: 1.5, K9: 14.3
• August - 7.16 ERA, 32.2 IP:
  • H9: 8.5, BB9: 3.9, HR9: 3.9, K9: 11.3
• September/October - 4.43 ERA, 20.1 IP:
  • H9: 12, BB9: 3.1, HR9: 1.3, K9: 8.4

Matt Boyd had a strikeout-per-9 of 7.7 over 460 IP in his career prior to this year, and suddenly he's posting an absolutely filthy increase in strikeouts - consistently - all season, pretty much every month, except September, but 20 innings can go either way, and he still was over his career-norm. 

He was walloped by HRs in June (10 in 29 IP) and August (14 allowed in 32.2 IP) - three in one game against Texas, three in one game against Cleveland, four in one game against Minnesota, four in one game against Seattle, and three in one game against Kansas City. 
Consider that Detroit lost 114 games last year, it's entirely possible too that he 1) wasn't really all that fired up in August after not being dealt to a contender and 2) was left in a little too long because why else would Detroit care? 

The hit and walk rates were all fairly normal for his career norm, or came with no crazy deviations - he just gave up a few too many home runs here and there, and in the year of the HR, that's not too unbelievable. HRs can be a little fluky. An increase of 3-4 strikeouts per 9 consistent over a season is hard to call a fluke. He still has some issues with hittability and control - the hit and walk rates aren't great - but I think it's fair to say his ERA could be a little inflated here simply due to bad luck, some fluke HRs, a loss of interest pitching for a historically bad team, and a historically bad team overusing him in certain games. 

I wouldn't part with anyone really integral for him, but I think he'd be a great candidate to consider trading for if the cost is fair, and seeing what good defense, Callaway, and the marine layer can do for him, and letting his reasonable arb. salary allow the Angels to work some other moves this winter via FA.

 

reasons to trade for boyd - he could get better because of Callaway, good halo D, marine layer, better situation on a team not losing 100+ games.  His increase in K's could make him better but the results have been the same although his HR rate was up a bit which could be artificial.   

reasons not to trade for boyd - he's almost 29 so it's likely that he is who he is.  His career era is 4.92 and his FIP is 4.66.  He's got 3 years of control (age 29, 30, 31).  Innings.  

Here's where I'm at on this.  

He's a guy you still have to unlock.  At 29. 

I'm not giving up dick for that.  Ward/Walsh, Herm and Barria?  sure.  Any scenario that includes Marsh, Jackson, Adams, Soriano, Fletcher, Rengifo etc?  F that.  

 I didn't include Thaiss in those names.  He's a guy that we might get another team to overvalue.    

Sometimes looking at a player's similarity scores is a good reminder of what they are and likely to be going forward.  Boyd's list has guys like Casey Fossum, Chris Volstad, Nate Robertson, Shawn Boskie on there.  The most encouraging name on his list is probably Jason Hammel.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/14/2019 at 3:10 PM, Sean-Regan said:

The question is whether he’s driving for a field goal or a touchdown. 

a touchdown with a 2 point conversion...

[Pancake Bear]

9 hours ago, ettin said:

Since many of us religiously follow and read MLBTraderRumors.com we should probably reference the source:

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-11-11-19-6390.html

The second question on the mlbtr chat is interesting. What 'Dan' is missing is that NY didn't *need* Corbin, thus they didn't pony up the extra year and dollars that the Nats were willing to. We could debate whether the Nats needed to either, but even with Corbin they were below the Yankees. Ditto Harper and the Cubs (that was a thing?) - they had no urgent need for him, so why would they throw 330 million his way? 

The Angels have the need (rather, the dearth), the desperation, and the money to make it happen. Unlike Corbin, Cole isn't committed to the east coast and has good reason to be willing to come here. That doesn't mean he's set on coming here, it means unlike a lot of free agents, he has no reason to not want to be on the west coast. 

CB on the chat gets it, though.

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, RBM said:

Yeah, I would trade Thaiss for Boyd straight up. Boyd still has four more controllable years.
But I think Eppler should do better if he uses the trade market to add a SP - maybe Robbie Ray or Jon Gray. 

the Gray discussion is an interesting one.  Pulling guys out of COL could go in any direction.  Thaiss and even Walsh are interesting names for them.  They desperately need a 1bman.  Walsh could do really well there.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

10 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree that if we're gonna get pitchers we should spend the money. 

Losing 2 draft picks would suck balls, though. 

I don't think Miley costs a pick.....

Fuck 

Neither does Keuchel

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the Gray discussion is an interesting one.  Pulling guys out of COL could go in any direction.  Thaiss and even Walsh are interesting names for them.  They desperately need a 1bman.  Walsh could do really well there.  

While I agree that they do need a 1B, Matt Thaiss or Walsh aren't going to provide any more value to Colorado than sticking Ryan McMahon over there. McMahon is a former top prospect himself and made some strides developmentally last season.

Edited November 16, 2019 by Second Base

[ettin]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the Gray discussion is an interesting one.  Pulling guys out of COL could go in any direction.  Thaiss and even Walsh are interesting names for them.  They desperately need a 1bman.  Walsh could do really well there.  

Walsh could also do really well here too!

We do need a 1B, Pujols is unlikely to pick up a lot of time there in my opinion.

Edit: I do think that Walsh is a viable trade piece because the Angels could easily go to the free agent or trade market to find a lefty 1B bat like Smoak or Schwarber for example.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

While I agree that they do need a 1B, Matt Thaiss or Walsh aren't going to provide any more value to Colorado than sticking Ryan McMahon over there. McMahon is a former top prospect himself and made some strides developmentally last season.

I presume the Rox will have McMahon at 2b going forward.  

[Second Base]

And as for Gray, he's got middle or top of the rotation upside, but won't cost an elite prospect like Adell, Marsh or Adams. 

The hard part of this is that the Angels 0-3 position players will hold no value to Colorado. They have Arenado at 3B, Story at short, Rodgers at 2B, McMahon and Desmond at 1B and Hampson in at utility. So Rengifo, Thaiss, Walsh, Fletcher, they'd be redundant.

And in the outfield Dahl and Blackmon have two spots locked up. The other is filled by a rotation of Hampson, Desmond, McMahon and Tapia. 

The Rockies minor league system is one of three that I pay a decent amount of attention to, and I can tell you that it's almost completely devoid of pitching depth or talent. So Barria, Suarez and Sandoval would hold particular interest in Colorado.

The beat reporter for the Rockies echoed what was reported, that Colorado would require major league ready pitching in return for Jon Gray.

As far as taking a bad contact on, the Rockies would jump at the right opportunity. Desmond's on the less expensive stretch of the original contact, making only 15 million this year and 8 next year. They wouldn't be opposed to replacing him, but it isn't a pressing issue where they need to find the contact. And Wade Davis is only under contract this year, that's it. They'd like to get rid of the 15 million, but it isn't so pressing that they'd give away Gray. Either way they're it from under that 15 million next year. They're smarter if they keep him and try to deal him at the deadline if he bounces back.

Gray figures to earn 5-6 million this upcoming year, and if things go as expected, closer to 10 million next year. So you're basically getting him at a 2/15 rate, which is ideal given his durability and upside. On the open market, he'd be one step below Wheeler, but still likely be able to command 4/60.

So there is excess value here that the Rockies would want to be compensated for. Reports suggest there are multiple MLB ready and the Rockies would want and I tend to agree. But I think something that could work for both sides could be Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Kyle Bradish and an upside lottery ticket like Jerryell Rivera or Connor Van Scoyoc.

This trade does take a chunk from the Angels depth chart to be sure, but getting Gray would be worth it. He carries Zack Wheeler type of upside at a fraction of the cost. The tricky part would be extending him, but in either case, I'd expect Gray to post a 3.50 ERA with lots of innings and strikeouts for the Angels. And because of the monetary savings in the short term, it opens up the opportunity to still spend of Gerrit Cole and another higher priced starter like Ryu. I mean imagine for a second sporting a rotation of Cole, Ryu, Ohtani, Gray and Heaney/Canning.

For the Rockies, Barria steps into the rotation immediately. He's been successful in the major leagues before and it's young and inexpensive. Suarez spends some time in AAA fixing the issues that plagued him last year and breaks into the rotation later in 2020, and Bradish is ready to step in in 2021 or 2022.  So they'd get three starting pitchers, a wave of them arriving consistently, which also gives them time l to invest they're draft picks in starting pitchers and develop them. 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Second Base

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I presume the Rox will have McMahon at 2b going forward.  

Brendan Rodgers or Garret Hampson.

[ettin]

On ‎11‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 1:02 PM, Dochalo said:

who would you consider to be more valuable in a potential trade?  Rengifo or Thaiss?  

I know you're asking Jeff but I think Rengifo is more valuable at this moment in time, due to his defense at multiple positions.

[Out]

On 11/14/2019 at 1:38 PM, Dochalo said:

if he can find a way to get a solid, controllable starter for guys who's names are not Fletcher, Rengifo, or Canning, then I would be thrilled.  I wouldn't be opposed to including someone like Suarez or Barria in a Boyd deal.  I'm sure there would have to be a sweetener or two from the minors that we wouldn't like to lose.  

What is with you guys and this bum Boyd?  Why in hell would anyone believe this dude has any value.....

 

[wopphil]

The appeal is that, over the last 2 years, he has averaged 175+ innings, with a 104 ERA+, and outstanding strikeout rates. And he has 3 years of club control and is affordable. 

There is tons of value there.

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Other teams’ trash has always been aw’s and whoever the current angels GM is treasure. 

By trash you mean their best starting pitcher?  Then yes. 

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

He has a career ERA of 5. Yes, he’s trash. 

185 innings, 238 strike outs, 3.5 WAR equals trash.  You’re crazy if you don’t see the value of that in a rotation, especially with 3 years of club control.  We can argue how much he’s worth to acquire, Or where he should slot into a rotation.  But if you actually think he’s trash and shouldn’t be a starting pitcher then you’re ridiculous. 

[Docwaukee]

personally, I am not a huge fan of boyd.  Really what I'm talking about is moving him for what essentially amounts to spare parts or redundancy of players with equally low expectations.  Guys like Barria or Ward or Walsh.  I don't think detroit would go for that but having a guy at the back of a rotation pitch to a 4.5 era and log 180ip along with Heaney would be a solid add if you're not losing anything major to get him.  

I would still want Cole and another starter for the top/middle though.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

personally, I am not a huge fan of boyd.  Really what I'm talking about is moving him for what essentially amounts to spare parts or redundancy of players with equally low expectations.  Guys like Barria or Ward or Walsh.  I don't think detroit would go for that but having a guy at the back of a rotation pitch to a 4.5 era and log 180ip along with Heaney would be a solid add if you're not losing anything major to get him.  

I would still want Cole and another starter for the top/middle though.  

Yep, like I said we can argue where he slots in, but to call him trash is just silly.