Free Agent SP the last ten years and how the current class stacks up.

[Docwaukee]

How about a historical look at the free agent pitching market over the past 10 years and where some of those players stack up relative to some of those hitting the market this winter.  The challenge is trying to equate previous markets to current but let's give it a shot.   

 

mlb SP last 10 years.pdf

 

[T.G.]

Couldn't open...

[Docwaukee]

try it again

 

[Docwaukee]

ok - a few comments about this beast of a chart.  

• I included every FA starter from the previous 10 classes that got a deal of 2 or more years.  
• the chart is sorted by best two previous years (per bWAR) prior to the contract.  From highest to lowest
• Dark green is above 4.0 bWAR
• Medium green from 3.5-3.9 bWAR
• Light green from 2.5-3.4 bWAR
• Yellow from 1.1-2.4 bWAR
• Light red from 0.1-1.0 bWAR
• Dark red below zero
• Delta is the difference from avg WAR two years prior 
• Any blanks where contract money would normally occur indicates the player is currently part of the 2020 FA class
• If you'd like me to resort by any of the parameters and re-post, I'd be happy to.  

[floplag]

OK, id like to here some of your conclusions here Doc...
I'm looking at this and i see a crap ton of non green here

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

OK, id like to here some of your conclusions here Doc...
I'm looking at this and i see a crap ton of non green here

So here are some of my thoughts on what it means:

• Since I only included WAR, the chart really only tells you what happened, and not why.  I may follow that up with some more info at some point but it was tedious enough already
• The top of the chart ie the best pitchers didn't perform terribly.  Obviously, Greinke and Scherzer have been great so far but there is still some contract left.  Price hasn't been terrible but the last three year aren't likely to be very good.  Cliff Lee was good.  Cueto was good before his injury.  There were a few obvious outliers like Colon who was 41 at the time of his contract and Wilson who just clearly wasn't that good as his contract indicated.  
• The next tier down had some obvious and not so obvious ones.  Buehrle was 33 and did well whereas James Shields contract was a disaster.  The Lester contract was good.  Zimmermann deal was a bit puzzling and sort of an outlier.  Corbin is off to a really good start.  
• Then in the light green tier it starts to get pretty dicey.  Greinke was an outlier there and clearly performed like an ace.  There's a ton of yellow and red in that crew otherwise.  That's the area where we see Bumgarner, Odorizzi, Hamels, Keuchel.  Roark is there as well and could be of good value.  But lots of money poorly spent in that group.
• The yellow tier will have a few value plays in it, but it's tough to know which of those it'll be.  Happ's previous contract, Santana, Minor, Fiers, Lynn (accidentally put that one in red).  Typically that group isn't getting huge contracts and the ones that did actually ended up not TFD.  not good though.  I don't see anyone in that group set for a big payday from that level like Teheran, Porcello, Miley, Gibson, Nova, Anderson.  I think this is where something specific about a player you see in that group where you are confident in your scouting could make a nice win.  That's actually why I kinda like Gibson as a lesser option.  Throws decently hard where as the rest are more pitchability guys.  Probably won't target him because he doesn't have the spin rates Billy likes.    
• The red tier is where to steer clear.  I have mentioned Wacha, but based on this he's a really bad bet.  
• The dark red was where the Astros plucked Charlie Morton.  Dicks.  
• As an aside, Cahill would have been in the red tier.   Harvey was in the dark red tier.  
• the non designated players were those that came over from Asia.  Kikuchi is pretty much the only bust from that group and he's got a couple years left to improve

Overall, I think Cole is a good bet even at the price he's gonna require.  

Strasburg could be a solid bet at 5yrs.  Anything more than that is risky

There's probably more risk with Wheeler than we all want to admit.  Especially at 5yrs.  

I also handicap the risk on Ryu at 3 years.  

Hamels at 1yr

Odorizzi at 3yrs and I still don't love it.  

Keuchel at 2yrs

Bumgarner at 3yrs.  I think he's a big risk at more than that.  

 

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

So here are some of my thoughts on what it means:

• Since I only included WAR, the chart really only tells you what happened, and not why.  I may follow that up with some more info at some point but it was tedious enough already
• The top of the chart ie the best pitchers didn't perform terribly.  Obviously, Greinke and Scherzer have been great so far but there is still some contract left.  Price hasn't been terrible but the last three year aren't likely to be very good.  Cliff Lee was good.  Cueto was good before his injury.  There were a few obvious outliers like Colon who was 41 at the time of his contract and Wilson who just clearly wasn't that good as his contract indicated.  
• The next tier down had some obvious and not so obvious ones.  Buehrle was 33 and did well whereas James Shields contract was a disaster.  The Lester contract was good.  Zimmermann deal was a bit puzzling and sort of an outlier.  Corbin is off to a really good start.  
• Then in the light green tier it starts to get pretty dicey.  Greinke was an outlier there and clearly performed like an ace.  There's a ton of yellow and red in that crew otherwise.  That's the area where we see Bumgarner, Odorizzi, Hamels, Keuchel.  Roark is there as well and could be of good value.  But lots of money poorly spent in that group.
• The yellow tier will have a few value plays in it, but it's tough to know which of those it'll be.  Happ's previous contract, Santana, Minor, Fiers, Lynn (accidentally put that one in red).  Typically that group isn't getting huge contracts and the ones that did actually ended up not TFD.  not good though.  I don't see anyone in that group set for a big payday from that level like Teheran, Porcello, Miley, Gibson, Nova, Anderson.  I think this is where something specific about a player you see in that group where you are confident in your scouting could make a nice win.  That's actually why I kinda like Gibson as a lesser option.  Throws decently hard where as the rest are more pitchability guys.  Probably won't target him because he doesn't have the spin rates Billy likes.    
• The red tier is where to steer clear.  I have mentioned Wacha, but based on this he's a really bad bet.  
• The dark red was where the Astros plucked Charlie Morton.  Dicks.  
• As an aside, Cahill would have been in the red tier.   Harvey was in the dark red tier.  
• the non designated players were those that came over from Asia.  Kikuchi is pretty much the only bust from that group and he's got a couple years left to improve

Overall, I think Cole is a good bet even at the price he's gonna require.  

Strasburg could be a solid bet at 5yrs.  Anything more than that is risky

There's probably more risk with Wheeler than we all want to admit.  Especially at 5yrs.  

I also handicap the risk on Ryu at 3 years.  

Hamels at 1yr

Odorizzi at 3yrs and I still don't love it.  

Keuchel at 2yrs

Bumgarner at 3yrs.  I think he's a big risk at more than that.  

 

Excellent analysis, thanks for that.

[Angelsjunky]

Great work Doc. I'll take a closer look (have to go pick up my daughters now), but wanted to say that I did a much simpler version of this chart a couple months to try to get a sense of what percentage of big pitcher contracts turn out well. I can't remember my exact findings, but I think it was roughly in thirds: good, ok, bad.

[Second Base]

I still love Cole, Strasburg and Ryu.  Wheeler is a risk, but could turn into a sneaky good pick, especially if he comes at a pricer tag less than 20 million a year.  Like if you can land Wheeler at 4/75, you pull the trigger immediately. 

[Docwaukee]

Another thing to take a look at is any contract over 3 years.  Of the nearly 100 listing, there are about 25 contracts of 4 years or more.  

Three of those were great in the first three years and great in the latter years.  Greinke twice, and Scherzer.  

Another was great then good - Darvish first contract when he was 25

Another that was very good, and then just good - Lester

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

 

[Angelsjunky]

29 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I still love Cole, Strasburg and Ryu.  Wheeler is a risk, but could turn into a sneaky good pick, especially if he comes at a pricer tag less than 20 million a year.  Like if you can land Wheeler at 4/75, you pull the trigger immediately. 

Says about two dozen teams.

Free agents like Wheeler tend to get more than expected, which is why I've been predicting 5/100 or so. He's the consolation prize after Cole/Strasburg, or at least along with Bumgarner and Ryu - and he's younger, probably with more future value. I suppose the only thing that might limit his contract is the fact that there's so many free agent pitchers. A lot of teams might prefer to play Kyle Gibson 3/36 or Cole Hamels 2/25 than Wheeler 5/100. But I still think he gets at least 5/90.

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Says about two dozen teams.

Free agents like Wheeler tend to get more than expected, which is why I've been predicting 5/100 or so. He's the consolation prize after Cole/Strasburg, or at least along with Bumgarner and Ryu - and he's younger, probably with more future value. I suppose the only thing that might limit his contract is the fact that there's so many free agent pitchers. A lot of teams might prefer to play Kyle Gibson 3/36 or Cole Hamels 2/25 than Wheeler 5/100. But I still think he gets at least 5/90.

I think half the league is going to be in on Wheeler.  

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think half the league is going to be in on Wheeler.  

Yeah and I think a team like Minnesota, Cincinnati, even the White Sox, or the Astros with a Gerrit Cole-sized hole in their rotation, will do something dramatic to land him. 

More and more, I’m skewing more towards the idea of Cole, a couple one/two year deal arms, and then improving other means where possible - catcher, bullpen, bench, infield - rather than Cole and the next best arm they can buy. The risk and cost will be significant there, more than we should take. There’s a good FA SP class next winter, we have Cozart and maybe Simmons dropping off, more graduation from our own pitching prospects, another year for the farm to grow in value, midseason trades...

Instead of a big three like Cole, Wheeler, Grandal, I’m liking more something like Cole, a one-year for a guy like Hamels/Teheran, or 2-yrs for guys like Keuchel/Pineda, trade targets like Quintana, a solid pen arm or two/mid-tier catcher, a vet bench bat. More flexibility. Stay the course. 

Instead of all-in on Wheeler, play it more opportunistically with the one/two year vets and guys like Bumgarner and Ryu and see where their market goes. Find the value. 

[Blarg]

I'm going to run this by my accountant and see what he thinks.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Yeah and I think a team like Minnesota, Cincinnati, even the White Sox, or the Astros with a Gerrit Cole-sized hole in their rotation, will do something dramatic to land him. 

More and more, I’m skewing more towards the idea of Cole, a couple one/two year deal arms, and then improving other means where possible - catcher, bullpen, bench, infield - rather than Cole and the next best arm they can buy. The risk and cost will be significant there, more than we should take. There’s a good FA SP class next winter, we have Cozart and maybe Simmons dropping off, more graduation from our own pitching prospects, another year for the farm to grow in value, midseason trades...

Instead of a big three like Cole, Wheeler, Grandal, I’m liking more something like Cole, a one-year for a guy like Hamels/Teheran, or 2-yrs for guys like Keuchel/Pineda, trade targets like Quintana, a solid pen arm or two/mid-tier catcher, a vet bench bat. More flexibility. Stay the course. 

Instead of all-in on Wheeler, play it more opportunistically with the one/two year vets and guys like Bumgarner and Ryu and see where their market goes. Find the value. 

Yeah.  I'd be fine with us signing Cole, Ryu, Grandal.  I think Ryu *may* command up to 3 years, but definitely nothing more than that.  I think he could be had for a 3/48 type deal, or maybe a 2/36 deal even. 

Grandal is someone I really hope we pursue, though.  Having a switch-hitting, power-hitting catcher with great plate discipline and great framing would not only help us a lot offensively, but he'd be a huge boost to our pitching staff, too.

Sign those 3 and I'll be super elated and call it a very successful offseason.

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah.  I'd be fine with us signing Cole, Ryu, Grandal.  I think Ryu *may* command up to 3 years, but definitely nothing more than that.  I think he could be had for a 3/48 type deal, or maybe a 2/36 deal even. 

Grandal is someone I really hope we pursue, though.  Having a switch-hitting, power-hitting catcher with great plate discipline and great framing would not only help us a lot offensively, but he'd be a huge boost to our pitching staff, too.

Sign those 3 and I'll be super elated and call it a very successful offseason.

I think at that price, RYU will go back to the dogs.  

[Second Base]

With the exception of Cole, there's probably going to be stiff competition for every free agent. 

With Cole, I think it's a perfect storm that will land him in Anaheim. He'll still get paid but with as many holes as Minnesota had in their rotation, they'll likely need to spread their money out a little more. The Yankees are already over the luxury tax, so dining Cole would be EXTREMELY pricey for them. The Dodgers figure to be in a similar situation as well, and they've been reluctant to sign any free agents at that price. The Cubs and Reds won't have the funds to make that move.

I think for Cole, it's really going to come down to the Angels, Phillies and Rangers. That's what will drive his price out of the bargain range, but without the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox being involved in this bidding, I don't think it'll go into the stratosphere like some are predicting. Like if the evil empires were involved, I bet you'd see Cole get 8/280. The bargain for him would be 7/210.  

But with Cole closely resembling a Verlander-Scherzer type of starter, who have both been effective into their mid and late 30's respectively, there does seem to be some precedence for justifying a contact that takes him through age 36. I think the Angels might try to give him that shooting 8th year at the same price as a way of knocking down the yearly commitment.

8/245 seems reasonable to me.

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

With the exception of Cole, there's probably going to be stiff competition for every free agent. 

With Cole, I think it's a perfect storm that will land him in Anaheim. He'll still get paid but with as many holes as Minnesota had in their rotation, they'll likely need to spread their money out a little more. The Yankees are already over the luxury tax, so dining Cole would be EXTREMELY pricey for them. The Dodgers figure to be in a similar situation as well, and they've been reluctant to sign any free agents at that price. The Cubs and Reds won't have the funds to make that move.

I think for Cole, it's really going to come down to the Angels, Phillies and Rangers. That's what will drive his price out of the bargain range, but without the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox being involved in this bidding, I don't think it'll go into the stratosphere like some are predicting. Like if the evil empires were involved, I bet you'd see Cole get 8/280. The bargain for him would be 7/210.  

But with Cole closely resembling a Verlander-Scherzer type of starter, who have both been effective into their mid and late 30's respectively, there does seem to be some precedence for justifying a contact that takes him through age 36. I think the Angels might try to give him that shooting 8th year at the same price as a way of knocking down the yearly commitment.

8/245 seems reasonable to me.

I think the white sox are gonna give him that 8th year.  

[ukyah]

another element of this FA season is that boras is holding a lot of the negotiation cards. say this drags on for a bit to drive up prices. so, the angels say it's time to shit or get off the pot we've got to make sure we sign some pitching. boras just looks at them and says, neither cole, stras, or ryu are ready to sign yet. that's why i think landing a bumgarner or wheeler ASAP is of paramount importance, it gives the angels some leverage back. they can take care of other business, catcher, etc. while boras does his peacocking.

[totdprods]

9 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah.  I'd be fine with us signing Cole, Ryu, Grandal.  I think Ryu *may* command up to 3 years, but definitely nothing more than that.  I think he could be had for a 3/48 type deal, or maybe a 2/36 deal even. 

Grandal is someone I really hope we pursue, though.  Having a switch-hitting, power-hitting catcher with great plate discipline and great framing would not only help us a lot offensively, but he'd be a huge boost to our pitching staff, too.

Sign those 3 and I'll be super elated and call it a very successful offseason.

I’ve started my distaste for Grandal numerous times, so I’ll hold off.

I’d be surprised if Ryu goes that cheaply...I think what I meant about the Angels being opportunistic regarding Ryu, Bumgarner, Hamels, is more along the lines that I assume one of the bigger arms will wind up not having much market develop, and that’s where the Angels will keep an eye. Could still be expensive. 

That’s why I think Wheeler is a no-go. He’ll be to hot of a commodity. They’ll sit back, they’ll go all-in on Cole and will sign him, even if it’s a stupid contract, and then they’ll sign a cheap filler one-year vet, while waiting to see what happens with the mid-tier. They’ll strike there later on in the winter and get the best value deal on a mid-tier arm at that point. That arm will be the Cody Allen late winter/over- budget surprise.

And during that wait, they’ll cheaply work on catcher, bullpen, and bench. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I’ve started my distaste for Grandal numerous times, so I’ll hold off.

I’d be surprised if Ryu goes that cheaply...I think what I meant about the Angels being opportunistic regarding Ryu, Bumgarner, Hamels, is more along the lines that I assume one of the bigger arms will wind up not having much market develop, and that’s where the Angels will keep an eye. Could still be expensive. 

That’s why I think Wheeler is a no-go. He’ll be to hot of a commodity. They’ll sit back, they’ll go all-in on Cole and will sign him, even if it’s a stupid contract, and then they’ll sign a cheap filler one-year vet, while waiting to see what happens with the mid-tier. They’ll strike there later on in the winter and get the best value deal on a mid-tier arm at that point. That arm will be the Cody Allen late winter/over- budget surprise.

And during that wait, they’ll cheaply work on catcher, bullpen, and bench. 

Right.  I think Wheeler will basically be the target of all the teams who want a SP with fairly elite stuff but can't afford Cole, which will be a lot of teams TBH.  I think Wheeler has a got shot of being "bidder up" to 5/100 or so.

Obviously a Cole/Wheeler pairing is ideal, but if it ends up being Cole/Ryu or Cole/Bumgarner, I'd be fine with that too.  Bumgarner has a TON of mileage on that arm of his, so I'd only want to sign him at a pretty significant discount.

As for the bullpen, I think we're pretty set.  We have a lot of core pieces in place (Robles, Buttrey, Middleton, etc).  I'm actually interested to see if we'll integrate some of our prospect relievers, a la Mattson and Warren, onto the roster this year.  They both had a very good showing in the AZL.

[totdprods]

34 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

As for the bullpen, I think we're pretty set.  We have a lot of core pieces in place (Robles, Buttrey, Middleton, etc).  I'm actually interested to see if we'll integrate some of our prospect relievers, a la Mattson and Warren, onto the roster this year.  They both had a very good showing in the AZL.

The bullpen could go either way I think. Eppler has proven he doesn’t need to spend big to find good relievers, and I think fixing the pitching shouldn’t be limited to the rotation. Anderson is a total wild card, Buttrey and Middleton both have some questions, and all three have options, which is a good thing.

Bedrosian, Morin, Paredes all looked great in the minors too and couldn’t really translate it here - Bard, Jewell, and our other AAA relievers never really stepped up. The depth there isn’t thin yet, but it could get that way fast. I’d like to see at least a couple vets brought in, even if only it’s minor league deals again like Norris, Hudson, Petit. If anyone has a Blake Parker ST and breaks camp with the team, forcing Anderson or Buttrey or Middleton to AAA to start the year, I’ll take it as a plus. 

The exciting and promising aspect to the pen is that, should a healthy, durable, effective rotation actually take root, the Angels can cut out some of the bullpen bloat they need for reliability, guys like a Luis Garcia, and start to mix in guys with less experience and more exciting stuff, like Ortega or Yan or De Horta and try to catch lightning in a bottle, or deploy guys like Sandoval or Suarez in relief if there are veteran starters ahead of them. They don’t really have that stability yet to use guys like that. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by totdprods

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

The bullpen could go either way I think. Eppler has proven he doesn’t need to spend big to find good relievers, and I think fixing the pitching shouldn’t be limited to the rotation. Anderson is a total wild card, Buttrey and Middleton both have some questions, and all three have options, which is a good thing.

Bedrosian, Morin, Paredes all looked great in the minors too and couldn’t really translate it here - Bard, Jewell, and our other AAA relievers never really stepped up. The depth there isn’t thin yet, but it could get that way fast. I’d like to see at least a couple vets brought in, even if only it’s minor league deals again like Norris, Hudson, Petit. If anyone has a Blake Parker ST and breaks camp with the team, forcing Anderson or Buttrey or Middleton to AAA to start the year, I’ll take it as a plus. 

The exciting and promising aspect to the pen is that, should a healthy, durable, effective rotation actually take root, the Angels can cut out some of the bullpen bloat they need for reliability, guys like a Luis Garcia, and start to mix in guys with less experience and more exciting stuff, like Ortega or Yan or De Horta and try to catch lightning in a bottle, or deploy guys like Sandoval or Suarez in relief if there are veteran starters ahead of them. They don’t really have that stability yet to use guys like that. 

Oh, yes - I do think Billy will continue to mine the waiver wire and pick up intriguing BP options, but I do think very little will be spent on that front this offseason, as just about all of the money will be spent on SP, with a bit being spent on C, too.

I do think our pen core is really strong, but they just got absolutely overworked last year.  Buttrey was amazing until he was just thoroughly overused.  I think this year, with a new pitching coach and an improved SP core that can pitch deeper into games, hopefully our relievers won't be used so heavily.

Right now, I see Robles, Buttrey, Middleton, Bedrosian, Anderson, Noe Ramirez, Taylor Cole as likely relievers for us.  I think Felix Pena might be made back into a reliever, depending on the SP moves we make.  Bard, Jewel, Markel, Rodriguez etc .. will all serve as depth.  And, plus, a few guys I'm interested in seeing - Mattson, Ryan, Warren.  I think a number of draft picks we have made in the last few years are being fast-tracked as relievers, which will definitely help us contain costs in the BP, which in turn will enable us to "carry" the costs of contracts like Cole, etc.

[VariousCrap]

Cole, Odorizzi and Grandal.

Get it done Billy.