What's the Most You Feel Comfortable Spending on Gerrit Cole

[Pancake Bear]

We've had predictions from MLB Trade Rumors, The Athletic (Bowden), and Fangraphs over the last few days. The totals predicted on those articles has elicited some interesting responses. 

Most of us hope the Angels sign Gerrit Cole, but I'm seeing some responses that indicate a clear line in how far people are willing to go in signing him to a contract. 

So here's the poll: At what point do you walk away and pursue someone else? I didn't include aav because that seems harder to poll and probably less relevant. If it's important to you, feel free to comment on that (or anything else related) below. 

I'm mostly all in, personally. I don't like the idea of 8 years, but if someone else has 8 years on the table and he comes to us if we match, I probably do it. 

My prediction at the moment is 7 years and 245 million (35 aav). Anything over that I wouldn't be crazy about, but I'd stretch that a little if necessary.

If it goes much over 250, I think I vote for dropping out. But, honestly, I don't see anyone spending that much. 

[Pancake Bear]

Note. The poll is not: What is your prediction. The question is: What's your max? Where do you drop out if it exceeds the number you voted for?

[Dtwncbad]

Deja vu

[Claude]

6 years / 192M max for me. Anything after that is a huge gamble. 

[Taylor]

4 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

6 years / 192M max for me. Anything after that is a huge gamble. 

According to that chart, Cole is already on the downside of his career.

[Claude]

12 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Exactly right. He turns 30 next season. That is right around the time pitchers usually fall off a cliff.
 

His numbers were stellar this year but keep in mind it was a contract year, he’ll get paid over $30M/year into his age 35 season, and pitchers very rarely age well. 

He also played on a team in cruise control the past two seasons. Number 1 in fielding in 2018 and number 3 in fielding this season.

[kevinb]

Anything over 7 years and 245. I’d barely feel

comfortable doing that but it is what it is. 

[UndertheHalo]

i think we’ve seen plenty of pitchers playing at an elite level into their mid 30’s and a few even beyond that in the last 10-15 years.  The injury concern is absolutely real but it is what it is.  The Angels need a front line starter.  Do you guys want the team to win or not ? We’re looking at maybe a 5 year window here.  They can’t waste anymore time. 

[UndertheHalo]

Obviously I don’t think 280 million or 300 million are numbers that make any sense for a team that wants to be able to be competitive.  That all said, I understand that it’s probably going to take 220-250 million or. A bit more to get Cole.  I accept it and I’m hoping the Angels can make it happen. 
 

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

i think we’ve seen plenty of pitchers playing at an elite level into their mid 30’s and a few even beyond that in the last 10-15 years.  The injury concern is absolutely real but it is what it is.  The Angels need a front line starter.  Do you guys want the team to win or not ? We’re looking at maybe a 5 year window here.  They can’t waste anymore time. 

Exactly. And this is why the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros will not sign him. They don’t need to and they aren't desperate enough to make that risky of a move. Yes, there is a lot of risk involved. But we have no pitching. Going cheap won’t actually fix the problem. We have to take that shot and hope it works out, because there is no other option that gets us back to the postseason. 

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

6 years / 192M max for me. Anything after that is a huge gamble. 

I think it makes perfect sense to lump an elite pitcher like Cole in with every other pitcher in baseball.  I mean, how could a guy like that not age at the same rate?  

[Stradling]

There are People who think it’s a gamble to pay what the market dictates for the best pitcher in the league.  Those same people aren’t going to allow themselves to enjoy what he brings to the team regardless because they’ll be waiting for his decline. He can have four amazing years, win a couple Cy Young awards and in year 5 or 6 if he has a high 3 ERA those people will shit on his contract. 

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

 

Kershaw threw 500 more innings through his age 28 season.  Bumgarner three 400 more innings through his age 28 season.  The only one comparable is price who threw about 50 more innings.  

[Stradling]

Just now, Vladdylonglegs said:

No, nobody would do that. 
 

And no, Cole won’t have 4 amazing years and win multiple Cy Young awards. 

He entering his age 29 season, his prime.  He very well could have four amazing seasons. 

[jordan]

7/$250 is my max.  

[Stradling]

Max Scherzer has had 7 amazing seasons since he turned 29. 

[T.G.]

I can't believe @Lou hasn't posted "I'm not giving him a dime" yet...

[zenmaster]

Anytime I worry about spending $30M + on Cole, I remember we paid nearly $30M last year for Cahill, Harvey, and Allen for -1.2 WAR. Cole's WAR last year was 6.8 according to Baseball Reference.