If you were to extend Simmons

[Angelsjunky]

Doc, I think we both have the Cole-Wheeler-Grandal hard-on, and both of us seem more bullish on Grandal than the rest of the board. That said, I think your Simmons extension is way too low. If he would take 4/40 right now, they should do it in a heartbeat. More likely to get an extension right now would be almost twice that - maybe 4/64 or even 3/51 if Simmons feels in his heart that he can't bounce-back. But he's probably thinking that if he can return to 2017-18 form, he could earn at least 4/72 in 2021, if not more.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Doc, I think we both have the Cole-Wheeler-Grandal hard-on, and both of us seem more bullish on Grandal than the rest of the board. That said, I think your Simmons extension is way too low. If he would take 4/40 right now, they should do it in a heartbeat. More likely to get an extension right now would be almost twice that - maybe 4/64 or even 3/51 if Simmons feels in his heart that he can't bounce-back. But he's probably thinking that if he can return to 2017-18 form, he could earn at least 4/72 in 2021, if not more.

I don't think the Angels will bother with a Simmons extension if it adds to the payroll or luxury tax payroll - that's why i essentially pitched something like a 5/$50m or something to bring the AAV/actual salary down.

And I think renegotiating his deal to drive it down to a $10-$13m AAV makes sense for the Angels, but they'll likely have to tack on the years for it. He seems open to being here though, so perhaps he takes it.

Edited November 1, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

I really hope we trade for a catcher. I just don’t think handing 60+ mill to a 31 year old catcher will end well for us

I am in total agreement with you. I'd rather go cheap here again (if no trade) and use that money for pitching or if that's addressed, some bench/bullpen reinforcement. 

The offense can survive with a glove-only option behind the plate if the rest of the line-up stays healthy and the bench is deep.

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I don't think the Angels will bother with a Simmons extension if it adds to the payroll or luxury tax payroll - that's why i essentially pitched something like a 5/$50m or something to bring the AAV/actual salary down.

And I think renegotiating his deal to drive it down to a $10-$13m AAV makes sense for the Angels, but they'll likely have to tack on the years for it. He seems open to being here though, so perhaps he takes it.

But if you're Simmons and are one year from two 5 WAR seasons, why do you accept 10-13M AAV? You don't. You have confidence in your ability to at least bounce back to a 4 WAR level and earn 15M+ on the open market.

Even if Simmons has another down year in 2020, he'll earn 10-13M AAV on the open market. But if he bounces back even partially, he earns more.

[totdprods]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

But if you're Simmons and are one year from two 5 WAR seasons, why do you accept 10-13M AAV? You don't. You have confidence in your ability to at least bounce back to a 4 WAR level and earn 15M+ on the open market.

Even if Simmons has another down year in 2020, he'll earn 10-13M AAV on the open market. But if he bounces back even partially, he earns more.

Working in the Angels favor here is 1) the fact he likes it here and is very open to a return and 2) the fact that Simmons has already gone through a really solid contract and banked $40m already.

Simmons' 2020 could dramatically alter his future earnings. If he struggles to stay healthy again or fails to break that 100 OPS+, there aren't going to be a lot of teams lining up to pay tens upon tens of millions for a defensive SS in his thirties, no matter how elite his defense is - and it's slipped a bit recently, hopefully just due to injury, especially with the recent FA markets and emphasis on power and HR. If he puts together a career year offensively and drops an .800 OPS with 40 doubles and 20 HR, someone might come close in offering him $100m+/$20m AAV in hopes he's entering a new peak.

It's up to him if he wants to take that risk and weigh whether he likes it here and being paid long-term a fair amount, or betting on himself. If I didn't feel like it was a realistic possibility, I certainly wouldn't have included it. 

There's also insane FA SS competition coming up - Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Corey Seager all hit FA the year after Simmons. I'd imagine a lot of teams interested in a prime SS might wait a year.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Doc, I think we both have the Cole-Wheeler-Grandal hard-on, and both of us seem more bullish on Grandal than the rest of the board. That said, I think your Simmons extension is way too low. If he would take 4/40 right now, they should do it in a heartbeat. More likely to get an extension right now would be almost twice that - maybe 4/64 or even 3/51 if Simmons feels in his heart that he can't bounce-back. But he's probably thinking that if he can return to 2017-18 form, he could earn at least 4/72 in 2021, if not more.

17m per for a 31yo SS who's frankly not a very good hitter?  

I don't think there's even a remote chance of that.  

Would you give Simmons a qual offer after this year?  because I don't think I would and the number you are throwing out essentially says that you think he'd be worth it.  

He's similar to Grandal in my mind with a couple caveats.  First, he'll be a year older when he becomes a free agent.  Second, his bounce back is heavily reliant upon having a much better offensive year because his defense hasn't really changed much.  How many teams are going to bet on that for a 4yr period?  3rd, his value is defense which tends to be underpaid or at least underappreciated.  4th, there isn't positional scarcity.  Who's gonna pay him what you think he's worth?  

You've got Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, Seager, Story, Turner, DeJong, Gregorious, Polanco, Russel/Baez, Bichette, Anderson, Adames, Segura, Crawford, Ahmed, Tatis, Swanson, Andrus.  

That leaves the MIL, BAL, DET, KCR, PIT, CIN, SEA, and FLA.   Plus, this year you've got Gregorious and Iglesias as FA's and next year you've got Semian and you know the A's aren't gonna replace Semian with Simmons so that's one less spot.  Then after that, it's Lindor, Correa, Seager and Story.  Which teams would be likely to wait for that market.  Also, you've got Lux, Royce Lewis, Kieboom, Hoerner, Chisholm, Oneil Cruz which either fills other spots or makes Adames, Polanco, Turner, Ahmed expendable.   The Tigers also have Castro who they'll likely go with until they start to show improvement.  The brewers have Turang so they aren't making a long term commitment.  Most on the potential list aren't gonna go after him.  So I think his market in 2021 will be pretty thin and limited to low budget and or rebuilding teams or teams looking for a bargain.  Seriously, who's he gonna sign with for that kind of money?  At age 31.  With questionable offensive capabilities?  

I wouldn't blame him for wanting what you think he's worth.  I think he's probably worth that too.  I just think we're in a position to get him for a bit of a bargain.  Maybe I'm a shade on the low side, but I don't think it's by much.  If he insists on 4/60 for an extension, I am letting him walk after this year.  Even if we don't have an internal option we could go big with one of the other guys.  

I love Simmons but I'm getting him for my price at a veritable bargain or I let him walk.  

 

 

[Docwaukee]

I moved some posts here in the spirit of keeping the other thread about your off season tidy.  

 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I moved some posts here in the spirit of keeping the other thread about your off season tidy.  

Thanks @Dochalo!

[kevinb]

I wouldn’t extend him. I’d look to trade him. If the price is right that is. 

[Claude]

I wouldn’t extend Simmons but I would certainly start preparing for Plan B.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Doc, I think we both have the Cole-Wheeler-Grandal hard-on, and both of us seem more bullish on Grandal than the rest of the board. That said, I think your Simmons extension is way too low. If he would take 4/40 right now, they should do it in a heartbeat. More likely to get an extension right now would be almost twice that - maybe 4/64 or even 3/51 if Simmons feels in his heart that he can't bounce-back. But he's probably thinking that if he can return to 2017-18 form, he could earn at least 4/72 in 2021, if not more.

Hey!  I'm in this same boat.  Those 3, IMO, make the perfect offseason.  I am all-in on the Grandal train as well.  I think those 3 can be added for ~60mil in terms of "year 1" salary or so.  

Personally - I would not extend Simmons.  There are a ton of SSs out there, as has been covered, and we can plug in Fletcher there as needed if we must.  We have also drafted a number of middle infielders, too.  I like Simba, but I'd rather spend the money elsewhere.  In fact, I have advocated trading him, which would free up another 15mil in payroll this year and enable us to add another significant piece in addition to the above 3.

[Second Base]

Simmons main gate is good glove, and the contemporaries who had such dominant defensive tools, tended to age gracefully as far as that part of their game goes. Rarely have the offensive tools agreed so gracefully though.

So if we are projecting out Simmons value beyond age 30, you can figure on a few things.

1. He's probably going to get hurt, some seasons rather frequently, others, less frequently.

2. He's still going to be there all works defender he's been for the past few years. 

3. He probably isn't going to hit as much after age 32.

4. While his healthy year win total is typically 5-6 wins per year, he's probably going to be a 3-4 win player in the future.

For me, if he's willing to accept something like 5 years, 55 million, I'd do it. If not, no worries, Fletch can play SS pretty well.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, RBM said:

There is a financial element also. His 2020 luxury tax salary is only $8.3 M. If he receives an extension this number goes up.

Luxury tax isn't the concern - actual payroll is, and he's slated to make $15m this year. That's the driving reason an extension would help the Angels.

[tdawg87]

Could get an extension if it's "backloaded!"

But I don't think that's a concern this off-season. Could be wrong, but there's simply too much need for pitching and a catcher that I don't see it happening. Maybe once all the dust settles.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Doc, I think we both have the Cole-Wheeler-Grandal hard-on, and both of us seem more bullish on Grandal than the rest of the board. That said, I think your Simmons extension is way too low. If he would take 4/40 right now, they should do it in a heartbeat. More likely to get an extension right now would be almost twice that - maybe 4/64 or even 3/51 if Simmons feels in his heart that he can't bounce-back. But he's probably thinking that if he can return to 2017-18 form, he could earn at least 4/72 in 2021, if not more.

I think Grandal would be the best possible offensive addition since Vlad -- I just don't believe they will stretch the budget enough to get him.   I'm waiting to see who all gets non-tendered before trying to formulate a big picture plan but -- Grandal seems like a pipe-dream to me regardless of how much I'd like to see him signed.   

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, RBM said:

We were $21 M below the cap last year and will be closer this year. Probably within $8 - 10 M. So no reason to move Simmons from the $8.3 M number. That number is Eppler's friend.

Arte has a concern with going over. So It could definitely become a concern with Eppler trying to add 2-3 SP's and a catcher and other stuff.

It's another reason why Eppler won't give Simmons an extension this offseason - injury concerns, performance concerns, Lury Tax cap concerns...

This isn't true. It all circles back to the actual payroll number, and not the luxury tax. We don't know the actual payroll number.

Right now, for luxury tax purposes, the #Angels are somewhere around $150M. The threshold is $208M.

Their actual payroll is around $140M, and in the past that's gotten to around $170-180M, but it's going up this year, Moreno said.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) October 25, 2019

Obviously, what this means, but maybe wasn't clear, is they are going to run up against their actual budget limit before they get to the luxury tax. So it's their actual budget you need to worry about, not the luxury tax. And we don't know their actual budget.

Carry on.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) October 25, 2019

Edited November 1, 2019 by totdprods

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Doc, I think we both have the Cole-Wheeler-Grandal hard-on, and both of us seem more bullish on Grandal than the rest of the board. That said,I think your Simmons extension is way too low. If he would take 4/40 right now, they should do it in a heartbeat. More likely to get an extension right now would be almost twice that - maybe 4/64 or even 3/51 if Simmons feels in his heart that he can't bounce-back. Butt he's probably thinking that if he can return to 2017-18 form, he could earn at least 4/72 in 2021, if not more.

Hot stove is getting hotter.

[Lou]

recon putting in work!

[Taylor]

tdawg would allow an extended Simmons to backload him.

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Taylor said:

tdawg would allow an extended Simmons to backload him.

No I wouldn't.

[Angelsjunky]

@ten ocho recon scout, go back to frisking teenage girls (or boys...not that there's anything wrong with that).

[VariousCrap]

If you extend Simmons, it has be be at a team friendly deal.  The reality is he most likely peaked in 2018 and the truth is, he is an average hitter.  If he wants more than 10 million a year, you thank for his service and say goodbye.

 

 

[Lou]

35 minutes ago, RBM said:

Arte has said he will increase spending this year but will not go over the CBT threshold.

did he actually say this?

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

17m per for a 31yo SS who's frankly not a very good hitter?  

I don't think there's even a remote chance of that.  

Would you give Simmons a qual offer after this year?  because I don't think I would and the number you are throwing out essentially says that you think he'd be worth it.  

He's similar to Grandal in my mind with a couple caveats.  First, he'll be a year older when he becomes a free agent.  Second, his bounce back is heavily reliant upon having a much better offensive year because his defense hasn't really changed much.  How many teams are going to bet on that for a 4yr period?  3rd, his value is defense which tends to be underpaid or at least underappreciated.  4th, there isn't positional scarcity.  Who's gonna pay him what you think he's worth?  

You've got Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, Seager, Story, Turner, DeJong, Gregorious, Polanco, Russel/Baez, Bichette, Anderson, Adames, Segura, Crawford, Ahmed, Tatis, Swanson, Andrus.  

That leaves the MIL, BAL, DET, KCR, PIT, CIN, SEA, and FLA.   Plus, this year you've got Gregorious and Iglesias as FA's and next year you've got Semian and you know the A's aren't gonna replace Semian with Simmons so that's one less spot.  Then after that, it's Lindor, Correa, Seager and Story.  Which teams would be likely to wait for that market.  Also, you've got Lux, Royce Lewis, Kieboom, Hoerner, Chisholm, Oneil Cruz which either fills other spots or makes Adames, Polanco, Turner, Ahmed expendable.   The Tigers also have Castro who they'll likely go with until they start to show improvement.  The brewers have Turang so they aren't making a long term commitment.  Most on the potential list aren't gonna go after him.  So I think his market in 2021 will be pretty thin and limited to low budget and or rebuilding teams or teams looking for a bargain.  Seriously, who's he gonna sign with for that kind of money?  At age 31.  With questionable offensive capabilities?  

I wouldn't blame him for wanting what you think he's worth.  I think he's probably worth that too.  I just think we're in a position to get him for a bit of a bargain.  Maybe I'm a shade on the low side, but I don't think it's by much.  If he insists on 4/60 for an extension, I am letting him walk after this year.  Even if we don't have an internal option we could go big with one of the other guys.  

I love Simmons but I'm getting him for my price at a veritable bargain or I let him walk.  

 

 

Wow, that's a lot of work to support your point - I appreciate that. Still, I don't think he accepts 4/$40M. That's an offer you make if you expect him to fall to the 2-3 WAR range, and I think he's better than that - and I think he thinks he's better than that.

Now I have no issue with the idea of offering him that much now, but I just think Simmons will laugh it off, and maybe even be a touch offended.

In a way, it is surprising how far his star has fallen among some here after one off year. A year ago people were in love with the guy and thought an extension was a must. Now it is almost like he's an after-thought, or at least the new Calhoun: a solid complementary player but far from a star. I'm just not ready to accept yet, at least not until we see how he looks back at 100% in April.

All that said, I do think the emergence of Fletcher and Rengifo, as well as Jones coming up, has made keeping Simmons less of a must than it was a year or two ago. But none of those young guys will ever be as valuable as Simmons was in 2017-18, and if he gets back to that level I think you have to offer him a solid extension.

[Angelsjunky]

One more thing - and this isn't specifically or only to Doc, but to those who keep mentioning that Simmons is an average hitter. I get that, but Simmons is exactly the type of player for whom WAR is a very useful tool. 

In 2017-18, Simmons had a 102 and 108 wRC+, making him a touch above average. But he was a great defender, which made him a star, with 5.0 and 5.4 WARs, respectively. BR loves him even more, having him at 7.0 and 6.2. In fact, BR gave him a 7.0 WAR in 2013, twice that of Fangraphs. I believe his 5.5 dWAR that year was the highest in major league history.

The point being, Simmons is not just a great defender, he's a generational defender. This is one of the reasons he's hard to evaluate, and easy to under-rate. Even WAR doesn't really do his impact justice; or rather, it does do it justice on paper, but not psychological impact on the field.

If Simmons is back in form in 2020 defensively, and he's at least close to average, he's going to be a very valuable player, and the type of guy you spend money on.