THE Official 2019-2020 Hot Stove Thread

[Chuck]

Quite the FA field this year. Damn

 

[ukyah]

22 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Quite the FA field this year. Damn

 

git-r-done, eppler.

[floplag]

That is quite the list of FA.  
There is literally no excuse not to make a a very large splash, perhaps in multiple directions.

[Angel Oracle]

If Teheran is approaching Weaver circa mid 2010's velocity, I would be leery of giving him any more than one season at say $6-7 million. 

[Mark68]

16 hours ago, Stradling said:

What would you think of Danny Salazar as the 3rd pitcher acquired this off season?  He was non tendered, was highly ranked a few years back and he has ties to Calloway.

I mentioned this in another thread. I was thinking of him when I saw that the non-tender officially happened (everybody could see it coming) as a "sure, why not?" candidate. He'd be cheap, could probably sign for a one-year "make good" contract and will either not stay healthy, in which case, we can cut him loose with very little commitment, or be a big boost to either the rotation or (more likely) the bullpen. He could be a weapon out of the bullpen.

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, RBM said:

Teheran would be a nice 3rd addition at SP. The Braves declined his $12 M option. I'm thinking 2 years $16 M.

Cole/Wheeler/Ohtani/Teheran/Heaney/Canning

i think i'd rather have miley over teheran, considering their salaries are likely to be similar.

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Teheran is approaching Weaver circa mid 2010's velocity, I would be leery of giving him any more than one season at say $6-7 million. 

there's a big difference between 89 and 83. to your point, i bet he gets 7-8 million per and maaaaaaybe a two year deal.

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, RBM said:

Teheran would be a nice 3rd addition at SP. The Braves declined his $12 M option. I'm thinking 2 years $16 M.

Cole/Wheeler/Ohtani/Teheran/Heaney/Canning

Sign me up! 

[ukyah]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

Yeah, I wanted us to get Miley last year before Eppler signed Harvey and Cahill. I'd be ok with either Teheran or Miley but as a third addition not as a second piece.

absolutely. neither one should be a second piece. 

i just saw that miley made 4.5 million this year. it's hard to imagine that he'd get 7-8 now. i think miley at 4.5 might be a good value signing that keeps money on the board for pitchers #1 & #2 or catcher.

[Chuck]

3 minutes ago, ukyah said:

absolutely. neither one should be a second piece. 

i just saw that miley made 4.5 million this year. it's hard to imagine that he'd get 7-8 now. i think miley at 4.5 might be a good value signing that keeps money on the board for pitchers #1 & #2 or catcher.

How about trade Andrew Heaney for the pitching starved San Diego Padres for one of their catchers in Meija or Hedges and sign Julio and Wade on the cheap to backend Cole, Wheeler and Ohtani, with Canning in there too. 

Worst case, we still have Sandoval and Suarez that with the help of a real pitching coach and one who had success in developing arms in Cleveland could turn those two youngsters in to really good arms. 

[winhalos]

17 hours ago, True Grich said:

I think Odorizzi could bee this year's Dallas Keuchel because of the draft pick compensation attached to him.

what about Will Smith? Think he could be in a Keuchel type situation too. 

[T.G.]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

How about trade Andrew Heaney for the pitching starved San Diego Padres for one of their catchers in Meija or Hedges

"pitching starved" does not equal "desperate." C'mon.

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, True Grich said:

"pitching starved" does not equal "desperate." C'mon.

I don't understand. 

[T.G.]

A team "starved for pitching" is going to want actual pitchers who are good... not Andrew Heaney.

[failos]

16 minutes ago, True Grich said:

"pitching starved" does not equal "desperate." C'mon.

you forgot "in my opinion"

[T.G.]

Just now, failos said:

you forgot "in my opinion"

[failos]

9 minutes ago, True Grich said:

I forgive you, Jack Tripper

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, RBM said:

Teheran has never been a high velocity pitcher and his numbers don't show a dramatic decline. 

In 2013 at 23 and in his first full season as a starter his FB was at 90.4. Last year it was at 89.8. This year it was at 89.7.

I think this was more about money and the young arms the Braves have in AAA. 

I think he would be a nice pick up on a 2 year deal.

not sure where you are getting your info.  

avg FB velo in 2011 - 93.9
2012 - 93.1
2013 - 93.0
2014 - 92.3
2015 - 92.3
2016 - 91.9
2017 - 91.9
2018 - 90.4
2019 - 89.9

that's a 4mph drop over the course of his career and 2mph over the last two years.  He was still relatively effective this year but that velo drop is scary.  
 

[Angelsfan1984]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

not sure where you are getting your info.  

avg FB velo in 2011 - 93.9
2012 - 93.1
2013 - 93.0
2014 - 92.3
2015 - 92.3
2016 - 91.9
2017 - 91.9
2018 - 90.4
2019 - 89.9

that's a 4mph drop over the course of his career and 2mph over the last two years.  He was still relatively effective this year but that velo drop is scary.  
 

He's going to Weaver his way out of the league. Not someone i'd be willing to give a 3 year contract to. If he's open to a 1 year deal, great, if not then he can go elsewhere.

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, RBM said:

Teheran has never been a high velocity pitcher and his numbers don't show a dramatic decline. 

In 2013 at 23 and in his first full season as a starter his FB was at 90.4. Last year it was at 89.8. This year it was at 89.7.

I think this was more about money and the young arms the Braves have in AAA. 

I think he would be a nice pick up on a 2 year deal.

This was written LAST year.... 

https://www.mlb.com/news/julio-teheran-hopes-to-restore-velocity-on-dl-c280656920

When Teheran stood as one of baseball's top prospects, his four-seam fastball sat around 95 mph. His average velo with this pitch was 92.8 mph during his 2013 rookie season and stood at 92.1 mph in 2015. But it steadily dropped over the past few years and now rests at 89.5 mph, which ranks 68th of 72 pitchers who have thrown at least 400 four-seamers this year.

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, RBM said:

 

Where did you get your information from?

And why did you include 2011 and 2012? He pitched only 6 innings and had only I start in 2012. He pitched only 19 innings and had three starts in 2011.

I took the info from fan graphs.

2013 - 91.5

2014 - 90.4

2015 - 91.2

2016 - 90.9

2017 - 91.4

2018 - 89.8

2019 - 89.7

Hey! Look!  PitchFX information!   

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=527054&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=11/05/2019&s_type=2

FG is lumping his four and two seamer together for the FB velocity you are using.

As I said previously -- the dude is the antithesis of what we see today -- he's throwing sinkers even as the launch angle era rages on.    Mostly because he can no longer touch the velocity he previously showed.

 

 

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Hey! Look!  PitchFX information!  

[Chuck]

 

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, RBM said:

OK. So you you don't like Fangraphs data. Got it. It was linked to an article I read about him. Your data also shows Julio Teheran has lost velocity. It shows 92-93 as a rookie coming down to 89-91 the past two years.

I like FG just fine -- but it's important for the info to actually be relevant -- data lumping two and four seam FB velocity together is completely useless in this case.   As far as my data goes -- you should probably look at the usage.  He's been shifting away from one pitch to another (both fastballs) as the effectiveness of his four seam FB diminished  -- this has dulled the overall loss of velocity on the FG data.   But the fact that he can't dial it up anymore or rather -- be effective doing it is an area of concern.   

4 hours ago, RBM said:

The loss of velocity was not my point. It came up in response to my point.

Actually no -- you chimed in on Teheran after I had already brought up his diminished velocity and reliance on the sinker as a possible reason why the Braves may have had trouble finding a trade partner and were moving on.   Does it matter?  It not being your point doesn't make the situation any less real.

4 hours ago, RBM said:

Redirecting back to my point, I think Julio Teheran would be a nice 3rd addition to our rotation as a #4 starter for something like 2 years and $16 M. Cole/Wheeler/Ohtani/Teheran/Heaney/Canning. He had 16 starts for 6 or more innings - more than our entire team.

I also think this move by the Braves was partially about money and the young arms the Braves have in AAA - Wright and Wilson.

Congrats -- you're about two weeks behind me on this.   

Clearly I'm looking at him as a possible option on the back end -- but I'm not blind to the red flags.     

The really funny part about this is that instead of arguing whether or not he's lost velocity (an undeniable fact), the better argument is whether or not it actually matters.  Teheran may be a modern day Omar Olivares -- a guy who could survive throwing nothing but sinkers.   Again, that flies in the face of the launch angle era but the reality is he's induced GBs at elite levels when throwing his sinker.  It's far and away his best pitch -- dude has been getting torched when he throws his four seamer..  Some of the predictive data argues he should have been a lot worse last year and that he should have given up a lot more HRs -- how much of that is due to the systems lumping all Fly balls together and attempting to normalize the outcomes .vs looking at the types of pitches?? -- I don't have that sort of data.

But I hope the Angels do and they can make a better judgement on whether he was lucky or a guy who can go against the grain with the sinker.

 

[Angel Oracle]

Teheran is someone you sign to help bridge to the young pitchers like Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, etc.     No more than a 1-2 year deal