True Grich

THE Official 2019-2020 Hot Stove Thread

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8 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I hope we are not moving into building a "secondary rotation."  A "primary rotation" should be the priority, we have candidates for a secondary rotation.  Somewhere in that mass of pitchers we drafted in recent years has to be secondary candidates.

Not sure what you mean by "primary" and "secondary" rotations.

Obviously Cole is still target number 1. But we aren't getting Cole and Strasburg. Hell we probably aren't getting Cole and Wheeler/Ryu. So guys like Teheran are nice options to fill the middle of the rotation. 

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19 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Not sure what you mean by "primary" and "secondary" rotations.

Obviously Cole is still target number 1. But we aren't getting Cole and Strasburg. Hell we probably aren't getting Cole and Wheeler/Ryu. So guys like Teheran are nice options to fill the middle of the rotation. 

To me the primary rotation is the first 5-6 pitchers, and the sundry is comprised of numbers 6-7 through 10-11.  I hope we can do better than Teheran in positions 1-6.  In the primary spots we currently have Heaney, Canning and Ohtani.  That leaves three spots to fill in the primary.  I could live with Wheeler, Bumgarner and Hamels if we can't squeeze in Cole.  This team needs multiple starters to spread the risk, especially if Cole's demands are too high.

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4 minutes ago, tomsred said:

To me the primary rotation is the first 5-6 pitchers, and the sundry is comprised of numbers 6-7 through 10-11.  I hope we can do better than Teheran in positions 1-6.  In the primary spots we currently have Heaney, Canning and Ohtani.  That leaves three spots to fill in the primary.  I could live with Wheeler, Bumgarner and Hamels if we can't squeeze in Cole.  This team needs multiple starters to spread the risk, especially if Cole's demands are too high.

You don't think getting Cole and Teheran would be a significant boost to the rotation? 

I think your expectations are a little unrealistic, but that's only based on my opinion. For example, Wheeler, Bumgarner AND Hamels will probably be about $60 million in payroll, with no room for a catcher unless Arte gets cheeky.

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1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

You don't think getting Cole and Teheran would be a significant boost to the rotation? 

I think your expectations are a little unrealistic, but that's only based on my opinion. For example, Wheeler, Bumgarner AND Hamels will probably be about $60 million in payroll, with no room for a catcher unless Arte gets cheeky.

I don't believe Wheeler, Bumgarner and Hamels would be $60M, more like Wheeler $18M, Bumgarner $15M, and Hamels $10M = $43M.  No one knows for sure until we get into the fray.  Who would your third be besides Cole and Teheran?  Cole will probably be at least $28M first year + AAV of $32-$35M. Teheran has a team option of $12M, and is likely to be traded.  I don't like giving up much value for him with the tender state of our farm.

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3 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I don't believe Wheeler, Bumgarner and Hamels would be $60M, more like Wheeler $18M, Bumgarner $15M, and Hamels $10M = $43M.  No one knows for sure until we get into the fray.  Who would your third be besides Cole and Teheran?  Cole will probably be at least $28M first year + AAV of $32-$35M.

I think your estimations on Wheeler and Bumgarner are too low. And Hamels isn't getting his AAV cut in half after 2019.

I honestly don't think there will be a "third" unless Eppler makes a surprise trade or finds someone cheap. Cole alone is going to take up a ton of payroll space, even with a backloaded contract. 

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2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think your estimations on Wheeler and Bumgarner are too low. And Hamels isn't getting his AAV cut in half after 2019.

I honestly don't think there will be a "third" unless Eppler makes a surprise trade or finds someone cheap. Cole alone is going to take up a ton of payroll space, even with a backloaded contract. 

Then I think it's a legitimate question - Is Cole really worth the risk especially if he goes down with an injury?  We need lots of help, no just one or two guys.  I think just Cole and Teheran to fix our primary pitching rotation is a big risk overall.

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5 minutes ago, tomsred said:

Then I think it's a legitimate question - Is Cole really worth the risk especially if he goes down with an injury?  We need lots of help, no just one or two guys.  I think just Cole and Teheran to fix our primary pitching rotation is a big risk overall.

we've run the risks with crappy pitchers, I say we try it with an ace now. 

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1 hour ago, tomsred said:

To me the primary rotation is the first 5-6 pitchers, and the sundry is comprised of numbers 6-7 through 10-11.  I hope we can do better than Teheran in positions 1-6.  In the primary spots we currently have Heaney, Canning and Ohtani.  That leaves three spots to fill in the primary.  I could live with Wheeler, Bumgarner and Hamels if we can't squeeze in Cole.  This team needs multiple starters to spread the risk, especially if Cole's demands are too high.

I agree. I'm hoping for Cole, Wheeler and Hamels. The money is there.

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5 minutes ago, tomsred said:

Then I think it's a legitimate question - Is Cole really worth the risk especially if he goes down with an injury?  We need lots of help, no just one or two guys.  I think just Cole and Teheran to fix our primary pitching rotation is a big risk overall.

That's perfectly fair. None of us know exactly what will help. I do think Cole significantly changes this team not just next year, but for the next several years. Just him alone. He's that good.

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8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That's perfectly fair. None of us know exactly what will help. I do think Cole significantly changes this team not just next year, but for the next several years. Just him alone. He's that good.

I agree that he would have quite an impact if he stays healthy.  I would love to have him.  But he pitches once every 5 days at best during the regular season, maybe 6 with the Ohtani factor.  He's as close to a sure thing as there is the playoffs, if we can get enough other help to get us there.  Many tough decisions to be made this offseason.  And I think to be really effective we have to have a veteran catcher who can develop a good relationship with him.

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9 minutes ago, floplag said:

Strasburg opts out... let the Cole/Strasburg  wet dreams begin... 

I’ve already had to change my undies 3 times

 

but seriously though, while it would be pretty awesome, I don’t think it happens. I can see Strasburg going to San Diago though. 

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hearing a few of you guys wanting us to get Bumgarner. I know the Playoff sucess but he not the same pitcher he was a few ago, definitely is a red flag. 

if we get Cole, i would not mind going after wheeler. Offer him a 4yr 70mil contract or a 5yrs 75 mil and see where it goes. 

People asking to trade Heaney, I would wait until mid season and than determine whether we should trade him or personally wouldn't mind keeping. Sign him to a team friendly deal with bonuses.

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On 11/1/2019 at 3:20 PM, tdawg87 said:

You don't think getting Cole and Teheran would be a significant boost to the rotation? 

I think your expectations are a little unrealistic, but that's only based on my opinion. For example, Wheeler, Bumgarner AND Hamels will probably be about $60 million in payroll, with no room for a catcher unless Arte gets cheeky.

 

On 11/1/2019 at 4:37 PM, tomsred said:

I don't believe Wheeler, Bumgarner and Hamels would be $60M, more like Wheeler $18M, Bumgarner $15M, and Hamels $10M = $43M.  No one knows for sure until we get into the fray.  Who would your third be besides Cole and Teheran?  Cole will probably be at least $28M first year + AAV of $32-$35M. Teheran has a team option of $12M, and is likely to be traded.  I don't like giving up much value for him with the tender state of our farm.

I think I might take the over on 60m, personally, if we’re making predictions on those three. Certainly not much under if it is at all. Pitching always costs more than I expect it will. 

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On 11/1/2019 at 5:04 PM, tdawg87 said:

That's perfectly fair. None of us know exactly what will help. I do think Cole significantly changes this team not just next year, but for the next several years. Just him alone. He's that good.

And that is where I believe he walks away at that situation! He had that in Pittsburgh and sniffed a single Wild Card game. He understands it takes a solid and competent rotation (more than him and Ohtani) and at least 3 bullpen guys to get to where he was this year with the Astros.

In the end it will come down to us and the Yankees. He actually, was drafted by them in 2008 1st round pick 28 and was very close to signing through the local OLU rumor mill. But, had already promised to play for UCLA.

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30 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

And that is where I believe he walks away at that situation! He had that in Pittsburgh and sniffed a single Wild Card game. He understands it takes a solid and competent rotation (more than him and Ohtani) and at least 3 bullpen guys to get to where he was this year with the Astros.

In the end it will come down to us and the Yankees. He actually, was drafted by them in 2008 1st round pick 28 and was very close to signing through the local OLU rumor mill. But, had already promised to play for UCLA.

Regardless of posturing, I don’t believe Cole wants to play back East, nor do I believe the Yankees will go 7 years on a pitcher (maybe not even 6 - they refused to go 6 for Corbin). Unless they have a significant philosophy shift, the Yankees will pursue someone like Wheeler, not Cole. (Note. I’m not saying they won’t go through the motions, but I don’t think Cashman or Steinbrenner are cool with 7 years for a pitcher.)

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1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

Regardless of posturing, I don’t believe Cole wants to play back East, nor do I believe the Yankees will go 7 years on a pitcher (maybe not even 6 - they refused to go 6 for Corbin). Unless they have a significant philosophy shift, the Yankees will pursue someone like Wheeler, not Cole. (Note. I’m not saying they won’t go through the motions, but I don’t think Cashman or Steinbrenner are cool with 7 years for a pitcher.)

You don’t believe? Can we stop with the we think we know what these guys want. We have no clue. Should be interesting when free agency starts. I hope he signs with the Angels. Anyone not named Cole. Has zero idea what he’s going to do. Will be a fun offseason though. Let the games begin. 

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1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

You don’t believe? Can we stop with the we think we know what these guys want. We have no clue. Should be interesting when free agency starts. I hope he signs with the Angels. Anyone not named Cole. Has zero idea what he’s going to do. Will be a fun offseason though. Let the games begin. 

scott

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