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The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread


Chuck

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It’s also pretty crazy that two of the biggest analysts (Olney and Rosenthal) both believe he will be an Angel. When is the last time any big analyst predicted someone to go to the Angels with this big of a name? They got Joe Maddon right, but the writing was pretty much on the wall. 
 

I don’t think that Wade Miley and Josh Reddick would predict the Angels to get Cole if they didn’t have some sort of inside info, but that’s just my opinion. 
 

This rumor just feels different compared to the past. Idk. When he does come, it would be remarkable. 

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1 hour ago, TBailey said:

It’s also pretty crazy that two of the biggest analysts (Olney and Rosenthal) both believe he will be an Angel. When is the last time any big analyst predicted someone to go to the Angels with this big of a name? They got Joe Maddon right, but the writing was pretty much on the wall. 
 

I don’t think that Wade Miley and Josh Reddick would predict the Angels to get Cole if they didn’t have some sort of inside info, but that’s just my opinion. 
 

This rumor just feels different compared to the past. Idk. When he does come, it would be remarkable. 

I don’t think they have inside info on who he will sign with. I do think they’re aware that he wants to play as close as possible to home. The Angels are an obvious fit. That’s why unless they screw it up, I think he’ll have a contract signed before the new year.  

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17 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Angels should sign Felix to a one day contact so he can retire as an Angel and the 5 people in Seattle who didn't lose their minds over Ohtani go absolutely apeshit.

And then retire his number and give him a statue.

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Lol.  If 250 million isn’t enough to get it done.  I mean whatever.  Let the Yankees have him.  Even 250 is an insane number.  I don’t think we’re going to $250 million.  I think he’ll get a 6 or 7 year deal.  And it’ll probably be in the 200-220 range.  
 

ive always said I’m not going to fall into the trap of having my heart set on getting him.  It’s going to be very tough to pull him down.  The Angels should have a great chance but I don’t think it makes sense to expect it.  I’m confident they’ll spend.  We’ll see how it ends up.  Hopefully they get Cole, but missing on him isn’t the end of the world.  They could not get him and still have a great off season. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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48 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Lol.  If 250 million isn’t enough to get it done.  I mean whatever.  Let the Yankees have him.  Even 250 is an insane number.  I don’t think we’re going to $250 million.  I think he’ll get a 6 or 7 year deal.  And it’ll probably be in the 200-220 range.  
 

ive always said I’m not going to fall into the trap of having my heart set on getting him.  It’s going to be very tough to pull him down.  The Angels should have a great chance but I don’t think it makes sense to expect it.  I’m confident they’ll spend.  We’ll see how it ends up.  Hopefully they get Cole, but missing on him isn’t the end of the world.  They could not get him and still have a great off season. 

Running some numbers tonight, I compared Cole to the top pitcher contracts to date: Price, Scherzer, and Greinke. I looked at FA age, innings pitched at that time (obviously only including MLB, since it would be difficult to impossible to go beyond that), fWAR, ERA, FIP, k%. 

My amateur conclusion based on that (anyone more up on pitcher stats can feel free to do their own check on it): Cole is younger and has less innings on his arm (the first is obvious, the second I'm not certain on since I can't check it absolutely). His k% to date beats the others out at the time of their contract signing, and he compares favorably to all on ERA and FIP. Price edges him in the latter two, but it's close (especially FIP). Interestingly, Scherzer and Price went opposite directions after the contracts were signed.

Point is, I don't think there's any way he gets less than a 7 year deal, and being younger than Scherzer and Price, I'm second guessing myself on whether he might not get 8. 

I know it's apples to oranges, but look at how position player salaries have jumped: Harper and Machado's salary totals are far beyond any before them (Pujols, ARod, Miggy, Cano), and Trout eclipsed both by a wide margin (Trout is less relevant here, since he is far beyond both). 

On annual average and total money, given that those contracts are between 4-5 years old, I think the current records are probably his floor. Quite simply, he seems - to my eye (feel free to correct me) - to be the best free agent starting pitcher (based on past performance) to hit the market in the last decade. 

I previously threw out a guess of 7yr, 224, (32aav). I'm now second guessing myself and thinking 7yr, 245m (35aav) might be slightly conservative.

I am aware that contracts have slowed down in what owners are willing to spend. The risk involved in that long of a deal on pitchers especially factors in. Still, I'm starting to think 7yr, 250 may be about what he ends up going for. 

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The difference of 4-5 million AAV shouldn't be what separates the Angels from signing Cole. I mean, we all expect them to be in the ballpark, so really the difference between 225/250 million is  not that significant. He's getting $30 million a year regardless. If you're willing to go that far, why would you balk at an extra 5 million? I mean hell, if we expect something like 7/220 then it's only an extra 3 million. That's barely enough for a decent reliever.

I understand it's more complicated than that. You have to draw the line somewhere, otherwise you get "if you're willing to go 35 why not 40, and so on". But I think Arte is going to be in the top 3 regardless, and I highly doubt the contract goes higher than $35/yr. It will all ultimately come down to Cole himself.

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20 hours ago, ukyah said:

what's it say?

Say Cole wants to be in Los Angeles, and the Angels come in with something in the seven years, $245 million range. If the Yankees or Phillies have a prayer, 7/$250 million likely won’t be enough. But bidding, say, $50 million over that could get Cole’s attention.

LOL at "could". and LOL at the idea that a team would have to outbid another by $50 mil to sign him.

what a stupid article. 

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