Chuckster70

The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread

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12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, that outlines my view--and fears--pretty closely. It really feels like the next month or two will define the franchise for the next few years. That makes this moment rather disconcerting; I mean, come March next year we could be gearing up for a legimitate playoff run, or we could be buckling up for another year or two of mediocrity while we put all our chips in the farm system. Or worse, Eppler panics and tries to preserve his job by signing the wrong free agents and/or trading the farm. Lots of moving parts right now, and the biggest determinant is Gerrit Cole. 

 

 

Cashman is just trolling his former apprentice. 

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18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, that outlines my view--and fears--pretty closely. It really feels like the next month or two will define the franchise for the next few years. That makes this moment rather disconcerting; I mean, come March next year we could be gearing up for a legimitate playoff run, or we could be buckling up for another year or two of mediocrity while we put all our chips in the farm system. Or worse, Eppler panics and tries to preserve his job by signing the wrong free agents and/or trading the farm. Lots of moving parts right now, and the biggest determinant is Gerrit Cole. 

 

 

we all knew that timing was going to be important for things to play out in our favor and it's gone about the opposite of what I had hoped for so far.  I can't totally blame Eppler for that.  I had a feeling that when Grandal signed it was the start of an unfortunate timeline.  In retrospect, we probably should have made a move for him.  Oh well.  I just hope Billy doesn't panic like you said.  That could be disastrous.  

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8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

seriously though.  

I'm just not loving where I see things going right now.  

 

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I hear you. It is reality setting in. A month ago we were dreaming of Cole-Wheeler-Grandal. Now it might be Bundy-Miley-Maldonado (e.g.).

Yeah the Wheeler thing was a gut-punch.

It's like, "here we go again" with the Angels missing the boat.

 

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1 hour ago, Jay said:

 

Yeah the Wheeler thing was a gut-punch.

It's like, "here we go again" with the Angels missing the boat.

 

Sounds like the Angels were never really in the running.  This is not a "here we go again" situation.  There has been great discussion about Cole's leanings towards a west coast team if everything is equal.  If the Yankees really want Cola, they will need to theoretically overpay to change this "if everything is equal" idea.  It would not surprise me to find out that Eppler made an equivalent offer to Wheeler but chose to stay on the east coast for family reasons.  Which is exactly why Trout will sign with the Phillies the first chance he gets.

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3 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

Can you guys explain again why you have been so sure (up to now) that Cole was going to sign here?

Fletcher has let us know it is a real possibility based on conversations with Cole and people in the Angel organization. 

He grew up in Orange County and went to high school at Orange Lutheran.

His team mates on the Astros said they thought he would end up on the west coast.

Every media outlet predicted he would sign with the Angels.

Most recently someone pointed out that is wife apparently posts on her IG account about Newport Beach regularly (this is the one yk will actually focus on is my guess)

Arte saying he will increase payroll and Angels need for a starter.

Trout signing an extension with and understanding of the direction of the team so we as fans assumed that direction meant signing better players.  

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1 minute ago, True Grich said:

"Stellar points" @Stradling - but next time could you prepare us before you drop that kind of knowledge on us?  Something like... "I'm about to make a stellar point here...."

Well if you followed me on Twitter....

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4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Fletcher has let us know it is a real possibility based on conversations with Cole and people in the Angel organization. 

He grew up in Orange County and went to high school at Orange Lutheran.

His team mates on the Astros said they thought he would end up on the west coast.

Every media outlet predicted he would sign with the Angels.

Most recently someone pointed out that is wife apparently posts on her IG account about Newport Beach regularly (this is the one yk will actually focus on is my guess)

Arte saying he will increase payroll and Angels need for a starter.

Trout signing an extension with and understanding of the direction of the team so we as fans assumed that direction meant signing better players.  

Even if you take all the west coast scuttlebutt as gospel, (I don't), that leaves you as 50-50 with the Dodgers.  He spent a few years living in Westwood.

Trout grew up in the shadow of the Phillies and to a lesser extent, the NY teams.

Stealth happens a lot.  Nobody knew ahead of some of the big Angels signings the last few decades.  So 'word out there' doesn't mean that much to me.

I actually do think the wife's IG account is an interesting data point.

None of this info leads me to think its even close to a slam dunk.  

But you guys follow this a lot more closely than me.

 

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16 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

Can you guys explain again why you have been so sure (up to now) that Cole was going to sign here?

Refer to @Stradling post.

The Yankees met with Cole, in SoCal, to be informed that there was no west coast bias.......think about it.

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14 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Refer to @Stradling post.

The Yankees met with Cole, in SoCal, to be informed that there was no west coast bias.......think about it.

Yes, you bring up a good point. We need to secure the border from unwanted people entering the state.

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4 hours ago, Jay said:

 

Yeah the Wheeler thing was a gut-punch.

It's like, "here we go again" with the Angels missing the boat.

 

I hear you, although for me it wasn't really just Wheeler. It was missing out on Wheeler, Grandal and Odorizzi, and the rumors of the Yankees being all-in.

Edited by Angelsjunky

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14 hours ago, HaloCory22 said:

FWIW, money will not be equal even if we out bid NY. That CA tax will take a serious bite out of any deal we offer. 
 

Location is all about preference too. 

A lot of people exaggerate the tax angle.  Players have to pay state taxes based on how many games the team plays in each state.  It's not like he would pay CA state tax on his entire salary.  He will for more than half of it.   Home games plus, games in Oakland in LA.   They can do other things to limit exposure.... with the signing bonus, I know.... though that may not apply to Cole if he claims CA residency.

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5 minutes ago, ScottT said:

A lot of people exaggerate the tax angle.  Players have to pay state taxes based on how many games the team plays in each state.  It's not like he would pay CA state tax on his entire salary.  He will for more than half of it.   Home games plus, games in Oakland in LA.   They can do other things to limit exposure.... with the signing bonus, I know.... though that may not apply to Cole if he claims CA residency.

Also, New York isn't Texas or Florida.

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I really want to believe Boras and Cole are using the Yankees to drive up the price.  Whether that's true or not, I have no frickin' idea.  So much of what we've read, seen, and heard has lead us to believe he wants to play on the west coast and we've even come to believe that he specifically wants to play for his hometown team.  Most of us are at that point of "do whatever it takes" to sign him and anything short of that will be a total disappointment.  It's just not a fun place to be right now.  Someone is going to over pay for him.  The numbers are likely to be crazy.  This is baseball today.

Remember the days when Gene Autry was signing guys like Reggie Jackson?  No one blinked at the money.  It wasn't even a thought in any fans' mind.  Times have changed.  We've become more aware of the impact large contracts have on our team's ability to compete, long term.  Can Arte afford to overpay Cole?  Absolutely.  Will he?  We can only hope.  History has taught us that Arte isn't necessarily the most patient guy.  We believe he eventually gets to that "take it or leave it" point when dealing with mega contracts.  Is he at that point yet?  We don't know.  All of the "not knowing' is the hard part for us fans.  Everything is totally out of our control.

On the positive side, we know the Angels have an owner who is willing to spend.  We're not the Kansas City Royals or the Pittsburgh Pirates.  We are lucky to even be in this position.  The Angels have Trout locked up.  The stadium situation seems to be heading in the right direction. They won the Ohtani derby.  The Farm System is better than it has been in years and one player in particular - Jo Adell, has sparked visions of greatness in the eyes of a lot of fans. 

I think that losing out on Cole would be devastating from a fan's point of view.  Even with all the good things that have happened of late - it would feel like a punch in the gut to lose out on this kind of talent and this point in time to many of us.

I believe Arte will do everything possible to sign him.  I hope that's enough.  I don't know if it will be.  Nothing is guaranteed.

My gut says Cole will come to Anaheim.  I'm biased. I'm hopeful. I"m a homer. I haven't given much thought to plan B.  I really don't want to.

 

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The geography thing can play for our against you. It's different for every player. Trout actually likes the distance Orange County offers him from home for six months out of the year. Yeah, he grew up a Phillies fan and a Derek Jeter fan, but the Angels were there team that drafted him, signed him, promoted him aggressively to the majors at 19, signed him to an extension, making him a millionaire, were aggressive on the market to surround him with talent and went out of their way to respect his need for privacy. Any player that reaches Trout's status can be pulled a thousand different ways from media requests, endorsements, etc... And the Angels kept the camera out of his face as much as possible. There's just a degree of loyalty that is big with Trout. And in the off-season, he goes hunting in Montana and fishing in Florida, and owns 60+ acres nearby his parents, so here's home with them a lot. It's the best of both worlds.... For him.

CJ Wilson was the opposite. He liked the limelight, he grew up in the area, loved all the action of Southern California, and was settling down with his wife, who, as a model, needed to be in LA a lot. So it made perfect sense for him.

Gerrit Cole.....I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine. He grew up an Angels fan, his wife enjoys the So-Cal lifestyle, and is particularly closer with his family, which still lives in the area, which plays in the Angels favor. He went to college at UCLA. However, you know the stunt with wearing the Boras Corp hat after the World Series sent a message too all of baseball, informing them that money will be the biggest draw him. But when you do become famous as he has, being close to home, you get a lot of family friends and distant relatives that come out of the woodworks asking for a handout, which makes everyone uncomfortable. So it's really up to him. 

My guess....Cole likes So Cal and as long as the money is close, he's going to choose the Angels. But if the Yankees come in and blow everyone out of water with their offer, he will go to New York. Personally, I think the Yankees interest is a media ploy. They would love to add him, but already being over the luxury tax, Gerrit Cole would cost them nearly 50 million a year because of the penalties alone, particularly one they hit that 50% penalty mark, which they would hit if they signed him. But if you're Scott Boras, you've gotta drum up interest any way you can, otherwise it really would just be the Angels, then everyone else. And the Dodgers, it's never been their way to spend that big on free agent pitching. They make wise short term investments, bring in more proven foreign entities, or develop pitching internally. So I doubt they're going to be a big player. 

And in regards to Stephen Strasburg, many in the industry already believe that Rendon isn't returning, which frees up money for Strasburg from the Nats. Boras and the Lerner's have an understanding though. Stephen will explore the market, see what kind of money is out there and how other organizations would accommodate him, but ultimately the expectation is that DC will be given a chance to match any offer, which they will. So the Angels meet with him, and as Bill Shakin said, when teams meet at this point of the off-season, it isn't a preliminary thing any more. It's serious and there are figures being exchanged. So the Angels likely have made a bid for Strasburg. 

Personally, I know this flies against all common sense, but I think the Angels are in on both Strasburg and Cole. I think there's a possibility that they will get both of them, and a likelihood they get Cole.

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Looking at everything broadly....

  • I think the Angels and Cole are progressing, and they'll ultimately sign him...it might even come within the next few days.
    • The Yankees met and made their pitch, will make a serious offer, but do feel he's preferring LA. 
    • NY media puts out a piece to drive up fan interest and paint the Yankees as trying hard/favorites to maintain fan interest and defend FO
      • This could also be Boras trying to get the Angels to up their offer, or make at least an initial offer.
    • Virtual radio silence in regards to the Angels/Cole, aside from an odd unverified Twitter comment or two from 'connections'
  • I think Strasburg is progressing with the Nationals...
    • Hence, their pivot to Rendon.
      • This also ties in with the recent Nationals FO quote about only affording one - they know something's developing
    • Wheeler's signing with Philly lessened their need for Cole/Strasburg, maybe dropping them as a suitor for Strasburg/Cole
    • Fletcher already mentioned his OCR piece about Strasburg/Angels wasn't Boras-initiated, but it still serves his purposes, regardless of where it originated...
    • Also could explain San Diego's recent actions to improve elsewhere...they know Strasburg returning is looking more likely, or the price is too high, and are moving on other needs.

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