Player A vs. Player B

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If we on this forum recognize Wheeler as a potential bargain, then so do 30 major league GMs. Wheeler won't get a bargain contract - if anything, he'll be overpaid. I'm not sure if he'll get over $100M, but I wouldn't be suprised if he does. I'd guess at least 5/$90M.

honestly, that number still doesn't scare me for him.  

[Taylor]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

thanks, but that's not even remotely true.  

Modest, too!

[Angel Dog and Beer]

[Angelsjunky]

21 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

honestly, that number still doesn't scare me for him.  

Yeah, I'd go for it. I'd start balking at 5/$100M, though.

Cole, Wheeler, Grandal is the winning combo, imo. I don't expect Arte will pay for all that (about +$65M AAV), but it would instantly turn this team into a serious wildcard contender.

Edited October 17, 2019 by Angelsjunky

[Glen]

52 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If we on this forum recognize Wheeler as a potential bargain, then so do 30 major league GMs. Wheeler won't get a bargain contract - if anything, he'll be overpaid. I'm not sure if he'll get over $100M, but I wouldn't be suprised if he does. I'd guess at least 5/$90M.

Yeah, I'm guessing he'll get at least $20m/year. A lot of deep-pocket teams are looking for starting pitching, and Wheeler is gonna be everyone's choice after Cole and Strassburg if he opts out.

[Vlad27Trout27]

I see Wheeler getting either 5yrs 90 mil

or 4yrs 80 mil

 

[floplag]

Im 100% OK with this as i think Strasburg will be way overpriced and is still to high a risk for what he will cost for basically name recognition.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

dochalo is smarter than most armchair GMs.

Fixed and also absolutely true. 

[Fish Oil]

This is your "pitch" for Wheeler. Nice
I'm certain everyone here will be thrilled if we can bring in Cole and Wheeler.

[UndertheHalo]

I’m very much on the Wheeler train.  I almost think that he’s a bigger priority then fuc*king around in the Cole circus.  
 

the Angels will make their best pitch to Cole along with a bunch of other teams and hopefully it gets done.  But the can’t wait around for that shit. 

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

I'm on the Get Wheeler train.

The Angels need to get three starting pitchers this off-season.  Cole and Wheeler are the two musts IMO. 

While I'd love Odorozzi to be the third, Eppler may have to settle for an older pitcher who will take less years like Hamels if he spends to get Cole and Wheeler.

This, with Hamels being the third addition for two years, and bringing back Machete is what I want to see.    Then for the next two seasons, the starters are Cole, Wheeler, Hamels, Ohtani, Heaney, and Canning.   Which allows Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria extra development in the minors.   

Sign Wheeler and Hamels first, and then it's not so much pressure on signing Cole.    Hopefully, Cole likes the ides of returning home and playing for a solid manager who has led two different teams to the WS. 

Grandal's so-so work behind the plate concerns me some.   The hitting is certainly there. 

[TroutCron]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Two guys.  One a free agent, the other a potential free agent.  Let's look at their last two years:

Player A 
377.2 ip
3.65 era
3.37 FIP
8.9 WAR
entering age 30 season and a free agent but almost 2 full years younger than player B

Player B
339.0 ip
3.48 era
3.39 FIP
8.1 WAR
entering age 31 season and could opt out of 4/100

both players have had TJ surg.  

if you haven't already guessed, Wheeler is player A and Strasburg is player B.  

This is my pitch for Zack Wheeler.  I don't think he'll cost anywhere near that of Stras, he's almost two years younger, and has actually been better than or at least equal to Stras over the last two years.  Plus, he's pitched more innings.  

He ranks 9th in pitcher WAR over the last two seasons.  Ahead of Clevinger, Syndergaard, Greinke, Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Kyle Henricks, Kershaw, Luis Castillo, Tanaka, Lester, Hamels, Bumgarner, and many others.  Most by a fairly large margin.  

If Cole wasn't available, we'd all be talking about getting him.  He's a strong #2 and a borderline #1.  I think it's gotten lost on how good he is because he plays next to Syndergaard and deGrom on a team with a dynamic pitching staff that couldn't make the post season and very few people have seen him.  

Just in case people didn't realize it, he can throw 100mph and his avg fastball is 97.0 mph.  His slider avg'd 91.5 mph.  

He needs to be our 2nd guy.  I think 4/72 gets it done which would be a bargain in my opinion.  

here's a video of him dominating.  

 

 

Starting pitching is at such a premium that I think Wheeler gets at least 4/88 or 5/110.  

[Hubs]

15 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

This, with Hamels being the third addition for two years, and bringing back Machete is what I want to see.    Then for the next two seasons, the starters are Cole, Wheeler, Hamels, Ohtani, Heaney, and Canning.   Which allows Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria extra development in the minors.   

Sign Wheeler and Hamels first, and then it's not so much pressure on signing Cole.    Hopefully, Cole likes the ides of returning home and playing for a solid manager who has led two different teams to the WS. 

Grandal's so-so work behind the plate concerns me some.   The hitting is certainly there. 

He is in the upper tier of pitch framers. Way above Machete. The list I saw had him ranked third behind Hedges and Perez.

 

[Pancake Bear]

21 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

This, with Hamels being the third addition for two years, and bringing back Machete is what I want to see.    Then for the next two seasons, the starters are Cole, Wheeler, Hamels, Ohtani, Heaney, and Canning.   Which allows Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria extra development in the minors.   

Sign Wheeler and Hamels first, and then it's not so much pressure on signing Cole.    Hopefully, Cole likes the ides of returning home and playing for a solid manager who has led two different teams to the WS. 

Grandal's so-so work behind the plate concerns me some.   The hitting is certainly there. 

Based on what I'm seeing, Grandal appears to be top of the line defensively and in pitch framing (dunno how he calls a game). His hitting is meh, but he is a catcher. His on base ability, though, is outstanding.

[halonatic13]

The biggest difference.  Strasburg is dominant in the post-season.  We don't know that about Wheeler.

[Chris]

Sold on going for Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal.

[T.G.]

6 minutes ago, Chris said:

Sold on going for Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal.

Sounds like a law firm.

[Second Base]

I also think that for the majority of last year, Wheeler was pretty mediocre. If it were me, and I were on a 50 million dollar budget, rather than Cole and Wheeler, I'd stretch it and go with...

Ryu - 4/100: 15, 20, 30, 35

Hamels - 2/30: 7.5 22.5

Keuchel - 2/30: 7.5, 22.5

Grandal - 4/60: 10, 15, 15, 20

Rich Hill - 1/10

Rotation would be Ryu, Ohtani, Hamels, Keuchel, Hill and Heaney.

While I'm aware this rotation doesn't compare favorably at the top to one with Cole and Wheeler, it is much deeper, still maintains an ace, doesn't cost a draft pick, allows the Angels to keep Canning, Sandoval, Barria and Suarez in AAA until they are needed, or prove to be an improvement over the current rotation, extends the rotation 6 deep which should help keep them all healthy, and adds one of the best catchers in baseball to the lineup.

Edited October 17, 2019 by Second Base

[totdprods]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Two guys.  One a free agent, the other a potential free agent.  Let's look at their last two years:

Player A 
377.2 ip
3.65 era
3.37 FIP
8.9 WAR
entering age 30 season and a free agent but almost 2 full years younger than player B

Player B
339.0 ip
3.48 era
3.39 FIP
8.1 WAR
entering age 31 season and could opt out of 4/100

both players have had TJ surg.  

I have a fun trade candidate I'd like to propose for Player C - someone I'd like to see the Angels target if they magically land Cole and Wheeler.

He will be entering his age 27 season in 2020, and had his TJS in June 2013, throws right-handed, and is controlled through the 2021 season, projected to make $5.7m in arbitration, and is a former 1st rounder, taken around the same time as Wheeler.

• Player C: 4.30 ERA, 8.7 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9 in 67 games, 334.2 IP (through his age 26 season)
• Wheeler: 3.90 ERA, 8.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.5 K/9 in 66 GS, 371.2 IP (through his age 27 season)

Now, there's some cherry pickin' here. Player C's stats are omitting his work against the AL East, where he owns a 5.12 ERA in 280 IP, with a H/9 over 9, allowing one more walk per 9 innings, and striking out one less per 9 than his stats above.

Player C is Dylan Bundy, and he needs to get the heck out of the AL East. I can understand Baltimore's reasoning in hoping he puts it all together and becomes a desirable trade chip, but his club control is starting to disappear, and his results aren't improving to the point that would justify the return they've likely hoped to get. Their system is garbage, and they have MLB playing time to offer folks as well. 

Bundy feels like the type of guy you try to acquire before he breaks out. He's young. The kind of arm the Astros fix. The kind of arm that savvy clubs pick up. Boyd, Ray, Thor...these folks will cost a bunch in trade capital. Bundy might not. Bundy might flourish outside of the AL East, maybe learning beside Cole and Wheeler. Someone you could acquire with a package built around something like Suarez, Jones, Hermosillo.

[T.G.]

I thought Al's son name was Bud?

Edited October 17, 2019 by True Grich

[Tank]

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

Sounds like a law firm.

better than our previous dealings with Dewey, Cheathem, and Howe.

[Angelsjunky]

One tactic I might take if I was Eppler is go hard after Wheeler early on, make him an offer that is difficult to refuse - like 5/90, but back-loaded to still allow for big moves in 2020. Something like 12/18/20/20/20.

That way they can still get Cole, but if they lose out they at least got a very good starter. And if they get Cole at 7/245m, they can also back-load his contract so that he "only" makes ~25M the first couple years while Pujols is still on the books, allowing for Grandal at 3/54 as well.

So the Angels multi-year big contracts, by year:

2020: Trout 36.8, Pujols 29, Cole 25, Upton 21, Simmons 15, Grandal 14, Cozart 13, Wheeler 12 (166m of ~190m).

2021: Trout 35.5, Pujols 30, Cole 25, Upton 23, Grandal 20, Wheeler 18, Simmons 18 (173m of ~195m)

2022: Trout 35.5, Cole 37, Upton 28, Grandal 20, Wheeler 20, Simmons 20, Ohtani 20 if Simmons not extended (160m of ~190m)

2023: Trout 35.5, Cole 37, Wheeler 20, Simmons 20, Ohtani 20 arb/extension ($132m of ~190m)

The point being, if Arte is willing to spend big and up payroll a bit, and if the free agents are willing to delay some of their pay, we could conceivably get that great package of Cole-Wheeler-Grandal, as well as extend Simmons. Or they could let Simmons go and save some money. Players like Pujols and Upton can be replaced by cheaper and better players from within, and the Angels don't have many in-house guys who will need big paychecks within the next few years. Heaney is closest at 2022, but he's either going to be gone or not that expensive/good. Ohtani gets arb in 2022, so might get a big contract that starts that year if Simmons isn't extended, or in 2023 after Upton leaves, a year before free agency in 2024.

Its already happening now, but just imagine the bitching in 2021-22 when Upton is getting paid $51M as a part-time 33-34 year old or worse, blocking Adell or Marsh or leading to one getting traded.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I also think that for the majority of last year, Wheeler was pretty mediocre. If it were me, and I were on a 50 million dollar budget, rather than Cole and Wheeler, I'd stretch it and go with...

Ryu - 4/100: 15, 20, 30, 35

Hamels - 2/30: 7.5 22.5

Keuchel - 2/30: 7.5, 22.5

Grandal - 4/60: 10, 15, 15, 20

Rich Hill - 1/10

Rotation would be Ryu, Ohtani, Hamels, Keuchel, Hill and Heaney.

While I'm aware this rotation doesn't compare favorably at the top to one with Cole and Wheeler, it is much deeper, still maintains an ace, doesn't cost a draft pick, allows the Angels to keep Canning, Sandoval, Barria and Suarez in AAA until they are needed, or prove to be an improvement over the current rotation, extends the rotation 6 deep which should help keep them all healthy, and adds one of the best catchers in baseball to the lineup.

his first two starts accounted for 11 earned runs and he had a 3.64 era after that.  

2.66 era in his last 11 starts.  

Not that a quality start is a great moniker of success but it at least shows some consistency.  

Zack Wheeler had 18 quality starts.  The Angels as a team had 22.  

The Angels had a pitcher go 7 or more innings 10 times the whole season.  Zack Wheeler went 7 or more innings 15 times.  

 

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

his first two starts accounted for 11 earned runs and he had a 3.64 era after that.  

2.66 era in his last 11 starts.  

Not that a quality start is a great moniker of success but it at least shows some consistency.  

Zack Wheeler had 18 quality starts.  The Angels as a team had 22.  

The Angels had a pitcher go 7 or more innings 10 times the whole season.  Zack Wheeler went 7 or more innings 15 times.  

 

Yeah, no denying he was outright dominant over his last dozen or so starts.  I watched him when he was a prospect, and it was plain as day even back then that he'd be a major leaguer.  He's one of the few that actually added velocity in his mid to late 20's, likely as a result of getting healthy. 

[TroutField]

8 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Based on what I'm seeing, Grandal appears to be top of the line defensively and in pitch framing (dunno how he calls a game). His hitting is meh, but he is a catcher. His on base ability, though, is outstanding.

He had an .848 OPS? That’s Very good for a catcher ....