Player A vs. Player B

[Docwaukee]

Two guys.  One a free agent, the other a potential free agent.  Let's look at their last two years:

Player A 
377.2 ip
3.65 era
3.37 FIP
8.9 WAR
entering age 30 season and a free agent but almost 2 full years younger than player B

Player B
339.0 ip
3.48 era
3.39 FIP
8.1 WAR
entering age 31 season and could opt out of 4/100

both players have had TJ surg.  

if you haven't already guessed, Wheeler is player A and Strasburg is player B.  

This is my pitch for Zack Wheeler.  I don't think he'll cost anywhere near that of Stras, he's almost two years younger, and has actually been better than or at least equal to Stras over the last two years.  Plus, he's pitched more innings.  

He ranks 9th in pitcher WAR over the last two seasons.  Ahead of Clevinger, Syndergaard, Greinke, Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Kyle Henricks, Kershaw, Luis Castillo, Tanaka, Lester, Hamels, Bumgarner, and many others.  Most by a fairly large margin.  

If Cole wasn't available, we'd all be talking about getting him.  He's a strong #2 and a borderline #1.  I think it's gotten lost on how good he is because he plays next to Syndergaard and deGrom on a team with a dynamic pitching staff that couldn't make the post season and very few people have seen him.  

Just in case people didn't realize it, he can throw 100mph and his avg fastball is 97.0 mph.  His slider avg'd 91.5 mph.  

He needs to be our 2nd guy.  I think 4/72 gets it done which would be a bargain in my opinion.  

here's a video of him dominating.  

 

 

[T.G.]

 

[Dtwncbad]

Nice post that I appreciate but I really don’t think anybody was going to be upset if the Angels signed Cole and Wheeler over Cole and Strasberg.

But don’t underestimate his earning power, I bet he gets better than 4/72.

[VariousCrap]

I'm on the Get Wheeler train.

The Angels need to get three starting pitchers this off-season.  Cole and Wheeler are the two musts IMO. 

While I'd love Odorozzi to be the third, Eppler may have to settle for an older pitcher who will take less years like Hamels if he spends to get Cole and Wheeler.

[Dtwncbad]

The Angels would be fine with adding two pitchers if they were a #1 and a #2.

Ohtani as your #3 is pretty good, and there are enough other bodies to fill out the back end.

I would rather upgrade another position than get a third starter acquisition.

[angelsnationtalk]

Cole 7yr $217M

Wheeler 5yr $85M

Book it.

[Chuck]

43 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

I'm on the Get Wheeler train.

The Angels need to get three starting pitchers this off-season.  Cole and Wheeler are the two musts IMO. 

While I'd love Odorozzi to be the third, Eppler may have to settle for an older pitcher who will take less years like Hamels if he spends to get Cole and Wheeler.

I would rather they sign Cole and Wheeler and then get Grandal, rather than sign three pitchers. 

I really believe that Canning and Heaney will have better seasons than last, and it's possible that Patrick Sandoval can be a really good 6th starter if they go that route. 

He showed me some quality stuff in his brief major league outings. I like Sandoval much better than Suarez who in my opinion needs to craft a better breaking ball. He was basically just a fastball (90-91 mph), changeup (82-85 mph) pitcher and got hammered in his big league showing this season. 

[VariousCrap]

Just now, angelsnationtalk said:

Cole 7yr $217M

Wheeler 5yr $85M

Book it.

 

Both are worth it.

[VariousCrap]

Just now, Chuckster70 said:

I would rather they sign Cole and Wheeler and then get Grandal, then sign three pitchers. 

I really believe that Canning and Heaney will have better seasons than last, and it's possible that Patrick Sandoval can be a really good 6th starter if they go that route. 

He showed me some quality stuff in his brief major league outings. I like Sandoval much better than Suarez who in my opinion needs to craft a better breaking ball. He was basically just a fastball (90-91 mph), changeup (82-85 mph) pitcher and got hammered in his big league showing this season. 

Believe me, if the Angels sign Cole, Wheeler and Grandal, I will be jumping for joy.

[VariousCrap]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The Angels would be fine with adding two pitchers if they were a #1 and a #2.

Ohtani as your #3 is pretty good, and there are enough other bodies to fill out the back end.

I would rather upgrade another position than get a third starter acquisition.

I have no problem with that idea, my only reason why I'd like to see them get three starting pitchers is that Ohtani will be on some sort of innings limit and I'm concerned about Canning's injury that ended his season.

Edited October 17, 2019 by VariousCrap

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I would rather they sign Cole and Wheeler and then get Grandal, then sign three pitchers. 

I really believe that Canning and Heaney will have better seasons than last, and it's possible that Patrick Sandoval can be a really good 6th starter if they go that route. 

He showed me some quality stuff in his brief major league outings. I like Sandoval much better than Suarez who in my opinion needs to craft a better breaking ball. He was basically just a fastball (90-91 mph), changeup (82-85 mph) pitcher and got hammered in his big league showing this season. 

Suarez was jacked up.  His FB velo is actually 92 touching 95 btw, but he could locate all of his pitches on both sides of the plate whenever I saw him in the minors.  He couldn't locate for shit when he was up with the big club and he was missing middle middle in the zone.  

[krAbs]

Sportrac is estimating 4/94. Expensive, but pitching is expensive, sooo...idk.

[Dtwncbad]

Patrick Corbin looks like a deal now.

I wish the Angel had landed him last year.

[Justin]

27 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I would rather they sign Cole and Wheeler and then get Grandal, then sign three pitchers. 

So five pitchers and Grandal? I'm in! 

[Second Base]

Here's the thing.... If you think Wheeler is a bargain, and have basic numbers to back it up, so does every other team in baseball with a need and some cash flow.

A fair deal for Wheeler would totally be 4/60, 15 million a year. The actual price of Zack Wheeler is more than likely going to top 100 million, over 20 million a year.

If the Angels want Wheeler, he's going to cost probably 23 million a year. Strasburg will likely cost 27. Not a huge difference but Strasburg is the better pitcher, at least in my opinion. Better track record, is showing it in the playoffs.

The real value in this free agent pitching class as Hyun Jin Ryu and Cole Hamels in my opinion. Ryu is going to cost 25 million a year across 3-4 years, but I think he's going to outpitch both Wheeler and Strasburg across the next three years. And Hamels, I think will cost 12-13 a year over 2-3 years, and I think he'll pitch at a level adjacent to Wheeler for the next two years, but at half the price.

Edited October 17, 2019 by Second Base

[Chuck]

10 minutes ago, SoPas Angel said:

So five pitchers and Grandal? I'm in! 

Typo, I meant to say, rather than signing 3 pitchers.So Cole, Wheeler and Grandal.

[VariousCrap]

No way is Wheeler getting over 100 million.

[Docwaukee]

39 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

Believe me, if the Angels sign Cole, Wheeler and Grandal, I will be jumping for joy.

that would be my dream off season.  

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

No way is Wheeler getting over 100 million.

A potential 5 win pitcher with upper echelon velocity and low miles? Yeah, he's going to have plenty of potential suitirs. My guess is he gets 5/105.

[Hubs]

10 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

No way is Wheeler getting over 100 million.

He might get around there though. 5/95 for instance 

[Hubs]

I’d be happy with two solid pitchers but my bet is they trade for one and sign one but maybe they sign two.

 

[Dtwncbad]

I am so glad that entire conversations about moves to fix the rotation next year are now happening without anyone mentioning guys like Nick Tropeano.

I guess we never know for sure what the front office is thinking but at least the fanbase has stopped pretending that “depth” made up of a bunch of #6 starters is a reasonable substitute for bringing in top notch pitchers to specifically address the vacancies in the front half of the rotation.

[Angelsjunky]

If we on this forum recognize Wheeler as a potential bargain, then so do 30 major league GMs. Wheeler won't get a bargain contract - if anything, he'll be overpaid. I'm not sure if he'll get over $100M, but I wouldn't be suprised if he does. I'd guess at least 5/$90M.

[Taylor]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If we on this forum recognize Wheeler as a potential bargain, then so do 30 major league GMs. Wheeler won't get a bargain contract - if anything, he'll be overpaid. I'm not sure if he'll get over $100M, but I wouldn't be suprised if he does. I'd guess at least 5/$90M.

dochalo is smarter than most GMs.

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

dochalo is smarter than most GMs.

thanks, but that's not even remotely true.