Could the Angels build a Washington Nationals type rotation this offseason?

[beatlesrule]

From MLBTR chat:

Alan

7:37

Rank the 3 most probable destinations for G Cole and a bold prediction for a mystery team in the talks.

 

Mark P

7:38

Angels, Yankees, Padres

And not sure how much of a "mystery" this would be, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the Astros re-signing him.  It'd be unlikely, but stranger things have happened

[Warfarin]

Just now, beatlesrule said:

From MLBTR chat:

Alan

7:37

Rank the 3 most probable destinations for G Cole and a bold prediction for a mystery team in the talks.

 

Mark P

7:38

Angels, Yankees, Padres

And not sure how much of a "mystery" this would be, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the Astros re-signing him.  It'd be unlikely, but stranger things have happened

This is my feeling, too.  I do not think the Dodgers are in play here.  Friedman has never signed a SP to a 100+ mil contract.  The odds of him handing out a contract that approaches 250mil seems very miniscule.  

That said, we have "home court advantage" in terms of our physical location.  I think if we are in the ballpark in terms of our offer (in comparison to NY/SD), he'd come here.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

I definitely think Dodgers and the Padres are in play

I just don't see the Dodgers in play.  They could easily be rumored to be involved, but if you look at the last 5 years of how Friedman has run that team, what's the largest contract he's given out?  I don't think he's handed out a single 9 figure contract.

[kevinb]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I just don't see the Dodgers in play.  They could easily be rumored to be involved, but if you look at the last 5 years of how Friedman has run that team, what's the largest contract he's given out?  I don't think he's handed out a single 9 figure contract.

I guess you could say the same thing in terms of what's the highest payroll Arte has had? I just don't see the Dodgers sitting put on a pitcher like that. 

[Warfarin]

33 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I guess you could say the same thing in terms of what's the highest payroll Arte has had? I just don't see the Dodgers sitting put on a pitcher like that. 

Sure - but he has been incrementally increasing the payroll, so we can expect it to continue to a degree.  Arte also does have an impulsive/impatient side, as we have seen.

Friedman is incredibly measured.  Again, watching him more than double his previous contract high would surprise me a lot.  People thought last year he'd be a slam dunk to sign Harper for similar reasons (superstar player who is still young, they reset their LT, etc).  In the end, he didn't make much of an attempt to do so.

Maybe he'll do it this year, who knows.  It's just I have seen people say, for multiple offseasons, "the Dodgers will buy this FA because they always spend," but I think people who say that are thinking of past regimes, not Friedman.  Friedman operates the team in a much different way than Colletti and others did.

[totdprods]

I've mentioned this in some of the Bumgarner discussions, and think it applies to the Dodgers situation...someone like Gerrit Cole doesn't really fit their needs. 

Yes, obviously, every single team would love to have Gerrit Cole slot in #1, and the Dodgers have the means, but do they need to go that far? They have a solid rotation already, a shining star in Buehler, young arms like Urias, Gonsolin, and May ready to play, a still effective Kershaw and Maeda...why do they need to commit $200m+ when they already have a great rotation to work off? They could drop down and spend $60m on Odorizzi or $100m on Wheeler or $125m on Ryu or $40m on Pineda and Wood or any number of smaller, cheaper, less risky SP acquisitions if they want to make an already dangerous rotation even deeper and more effective, without drawing up payroll even further. They have a pitching-friendly stadium and division, so they can afford to roll the dice a little more on less-talented arms and still get plus-production. Plus, they're great at finding that talent. They're better off continuing to round out plus-plus depth than they are needing a big, expensive #1.

The lone argument that makes sense would be if they're just totally frustrated by their postseason chokes and feel they need a dominant #1 to get them over the hump, but their problem hasn't really been SP pitching in the playoffs...it's been the pen, the offense, some bad luck and decisions, and maybe an overreliance on Kershaw, which, yeah, could play up the need for someone like Cole, but could also be mitigated for a lot less money by just relying on him less in the biggest moments. 

I could see them being more interested in Rendon, especially since he seems to want a short-term deal. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by totdprods

[Warfarin]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I've mentioned this in some of the Bumgarner discussions, and think it applies to the Dodgers situation...someone like Gerrit Cole doesn't really fit their needs. 

Yes, obviously, every single team would love to have Gerrit Cole slot in #1, and the Dodgers have the means, but do they need to go that far? They have a solid rotation already, a shining star in Buehler, young arms like Urias, Gonsolin, and May ready to play, a still effective Kershaw and Maeda...why do they need to commit $200m+ when they already have a great rotation to work off? They could drop down and spend $60m on Odorizzi or $100m on Wheeler or $125m on Ryu or $40m on Pineda and Wood or any number of smaller, cheaper, less risky SP acquisitions if they want to make an already dangerous rotation even deeper and more effective, without drawing up payroll even further. They have a pitching-friendly stadium and division, so they can afford to roll the dice a little more on less-talented arms and still get plus-production. Plus, they're great at finding that talent.

The lone argument that makes sense would be if they're just totally frustrated by their postseason chokes and feel they need a dominant #1 to get them over the hump, but their SP hasn't really been a pitching in the playoffs...it's been the pen, the offense, some bad luck and decisions, and maybe an overreliance on Kershaw, which, yeah, could play up the need for someone like Cole, but could also be mitigated for a lot less money by just relying on him less in the biggest moments. 

I could see them being more interested in Rendon, especially since he seems to want a short-term deal. 

100% this.  I think if Friedman makes a splash, it is for Rendon, who has said he is more interested in a short-term, high AAV deal, which is exactly the type of contract Friedman likes to give out.  The Dodgers are also somewhat lacking in legit RH power, with Turner getting older and not much else beyond him.  He fits their needs better.

If they do that, then Seager becomes a trade asset for them, and they can in turn use Seager to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter who costs a lot less than Cole, etc.

Just watching how Friedman operates, I think that outcome is far more likely than them dropping 250mil on Cole.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

The only contract that is on the books that is not from Epplers doing is Albert. I don't know what contract is really hamstringing us? 

Which is the one everyone points to as the problem so... yeah.  
No matter how you slice it 30M is 30M.  IF for example he wasnt on the books thats Cole plus.  
Its moot, hes still here, but its the difference between going over 200M and not. 

[floplag]

2 hours ago, True Grich said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hello????  Look up.  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

I didnt quote IP, your point? 

[Troll Daddy]

I’m not sure they can build one ... but, they can buy one

[floplag]

I see a lot of folks talking about what Friedman has never done in trying to discount the Dodgers.  You know what else he hasnt done though, win a WS. 
Hes had arguably the best team in baseball for some years now, and has no post season gold to show for it.
IF there was a time for him to make that move, its probably now.
Im not counting them out just yet on any significant FA

[Warfarin]

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

I see a lot of folks talking about what Friedman has never done in trying to discount the Dodgers.  You know what else he hasnt done though, win a WS. 
Hes had arguably the best team in baseball for some years now, and has no post season gold to show for it.
IF there was a time for him to make that move, its probably now.
Im not counting them out just yet on any significant FA

Sure, it's reasonable to not count anyone out.  There are no absolutes.  But all that said, I would be very surprised to see them sign Cole, unless his market suddenly craters, which I do not expect to happen.

Remember - Friedman's #1 goal isn't to win a championship, but to help his ownership group earn lots of money.   He's likely done a very good job of this by, in part, avoiding mega contracts.  I don't think the Guggenheims are quite as motivated to win a title beyond all else like other individual owners might be.

[Jay]

We better have Warfarin on suicide watch if we don't get Cole.

[Warfarin]

25 minutes ago, Jay said:

We better have Warfarin on suicide watch if we don't get Cole.

I think I could live with Strasburg as an alternative option

[tdawg87]

Wheeler > Strasburg

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Wheeler > Strasburg

Wheeler will be our 2nd SP addition, in addition to either Cole or Strasburg

But seriously, I do expect 2 SPs to be added, at least.  We'll see who they end up being.

[tdawg87]

Well, Wheeler could be added as well as Odorizzi for roughly the price of Cole. That leaves the door wide open to sign Grandal.

Buuuut I'd rather have Cole. We haven't had a pitcher of that caliber in the rotation since Ryan.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Well, Wheeler could be added as well as Odorizzi for roughly the price of Cole. That leaves the door wide open to sign Grandal.

Buuuut I'd rather have Cole. We haven't had a pitcher of that caliber in the rotation since Ryan.

Yeah, same.  Especially for a team like us, who would probably be more likely to enter as a WC team as opposed to a division winner, having someone like Cole pitch that 1 game playoff would be huge, as opposed to, say, Wheeler or Odorizzi.  Then, if you win the WC game, you lead off the division series with either Ohtani or whoever the 2nd SP we acquire is (Wheeler, etc), with Cole lined up for game 3 of the division series.

So, yeah - IMO, go all in on Cole.  I think as long as our offer is in the ballpark of other teams' offers, the local boy would opt to sign here.

[Docwaukee]

I don't know how Rendon makes Seager expendable unless they put Lux at SS full time which already makes him expendable.  We've actually already seen in the thread about potentially trading Simmons that there aren't many trade partners out there who are potential contenders that need a SS and have a surplus of pitching.  Unless the dogs could parlay Seager into Luis Castillo from the reds.  

I guess they could put turner at 2b full time and Muncy at 1b.  

But Seager only has 2 years of control left and a guy like Castillo has 4.  

I think they'll re-sign Ryu on a 3 year deal and work heavily on their bullpen.  I bet they get Will Smith and at least one other guy.  That plus Ryu is gonna cost them about 40m

They're already at 175m so that would put them around 215m.  Their rotation would be Buehler, Kershaw, Ryu, May, Maeda, Stripling with some Gonsolin and Urias in there.  They love their SP depth.  They are also losing Rich Hill.  

So even if they don't go with Ryu, I see them going with someone similar in that 18-22m per range.  They also need a decent backup catcher which will tack on another 5m or so.  

If you exchange Ryu for Cole in that equation, that puts them around 230m.  

With the way they roll, I just don't see them making the commitment needed to get Cole.  

we're gonna see how much Cole wants to play out west because I am quite sure there will be a couple other teams besides the Angels who are willing to break the bank on him.  I can see someone like the white sox going to that 8th year and I don't think the Angels will.  

[Docwaukee]

The more that I think about it, I could see the Dogs being a big player for Wheeler.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 10/17/2019 at 9:52 PM, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

blah, blah, blah... He is wasting the career of the greatest player we ever see play this game. He needs to spend big or sell the team. He got himself into this mess with enormous contracts on players past their prime. He needs to spend big on players in their prime now.

While i think everyone here agrees, youre also contradicting yourself.

He did spend big. We can call hil cheap, but in the last 8 years he handed out the biggest contract in history.... of any sport.... and the second largest contact (at the time). 

Within roughly 3 years of aquiring dead money in wells. Dead money in GMJ. Really dead money in Hamilton.

Or, more directly, he spent half a BILLION in 3 years to pujols, wilson, wells, and hamilton. 4 guys. 

And we only got worse.

But the money was still paid...

And we had no farm... and you cant build a farm if you lose a draft pick every year.

Yes, its time to spend again. But hes not at fault for not spending.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I don't know how Rendon makes Seager expendable unless they put Lux at SS full time which already makes him expendable.  We've actually already seen in the thread about potentially trading Simmons that there aren't many trade partners out there who are potential contenders that need a SS and have a surplus of pitching.  Unless the dogs could parlay Seager into Luis Castillo from the reds.  

I guess they could put turner at 2b full time and Muncy at 1b.  

But Seager only has 2 years of control left and a guy like Castillo has 4.  

I think they'll re-sign Ryu on a 3 year deal and work heavily on their bullpen.  I bet they get Will Smith and at least one other guy.  That plus Ryu is gonna cost them about 40m

They're already at 175m so that would put them around 215m.  Their rotation would be Buehler, Kershaw, Ryu, May, Maeda, Stripling with some Gonsolin and Urias in there.  They love their SP depth.  They are also losing Rich Hill.  

So even if they don't go with Ryu, I see them going with someone similar in that 18-22m per range.  They also need a decent backup catcher which will tack on another 5m or so.  

If you exchange Ryu for Cole in that equation, that puts them around 230m.  

With the way they roll, I just don't see them making the commitment needed to get Cole.  

we're gonna see how much Cole wants to play out west because I am quite sure there will be a couple other teams besides the Angels who are willing to break the bank on him.  I can see someone like the white sox going to that 8th year and I don't think the Angels will.  

Someone may offer him 8, but I’m pretty confident it won’t be the White Sox.

[Warfarin]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't know how Rendon makes Seager expendable unless they put Lux at SS full time which already makes him expendable.  We've actually already seen in the thread about potentially trading Simmons that there aren't many trade partners out there who are potential contenders that need a SS and have a surplus of pitching.  Unless the dogs could parlay Seager into Luis Castillo from the reds.  

I guess they could put turner at 2b full time and Muncy at 1b.  

But Seager only has 2 years of control left and a guy like Castillo has 4.  

I think they'll re-sign Ryu on a 3 year deal and work heavily on their bullpen.  I bet they get Will Smith and at least one other guy.  That plus Ryu is gonna cost them about 40m

They're already at 175m so that would put them around 215m.  Their rotation would be Buehler, Kershaw, Ryu, May, Maeda, Stripling with some Gonsolin and Urias in there.  They love their SP depth.  They are also losing Rich Hill.  

So even if they don't go with Ryu, I see them going with someone similar in that 18-22m per range.  They also need a decent backup catcher which will tack on another 5m or so.  

If you exchange Ryu for Cole in that equation, that puts them around 230m.  

With the way they roll, I just don't see them making the commitment needed to get Cole.  

we're gonna see how much Cole wants to play out west because I am quite sure there will be a couple other teams besides the Angels who are willing to break the bank on him.  I can see someone like the white sox going to that 8th year and I don't think the Angels will.  

I think if they signed Rendon, they'd make Seager available in a trade.  Lux, per Keith Law, is considered a superior defender than Seager at SS.  So, they'd likely play Rendon at 3B, Turner at 1B, Muncy at 2B (he graded above average defensively there last season), and Lux at SS.  They could then trade Seager for whatever they feel their shortcoming is, or use him to further re-stock their farm system.

I do not think they will re-sign Ryu, unless he agrees to come back at a significant discount.  I actually think they might re-sign Hill, who has stated he really wants to come back, on a super discounted, incentive-laden 1 year deal, like a 1 year, 3 mil contract, with a bunch of incentives for various IP levels.

I do NOT think they will get Cole at all, but I do think they will be in the hunt for Rendon, and will trade Seager for a front-line SP (like a Noah Syndergaard, for example).  Or, potentially, they might pursue Wheeler, whose stuff is more elite than Ryu, with the hope that they can "optimize" him in the way the Astros "optimized" Cole.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think if they signed Rendon, they'd make Seager available in a trade.  Lux, per Keith Law, is considered a superior defender than Seager at SS.  So, they'd likely play Rendon at 3B, Turner at 1B, Muncy at 2B (he graded above average defensively there last season), and Lux at SS.  They could then trade Seager for whatever they feel their shortcoming is, or use him to further re-stock their farm system.

I do not think they will re-sign Ryu, unless he agrees to come back at a significant discount.  I actually think they might re-sign Hill, who has stated he really wants to come back, on a super discounted, incentive-laden 1 year deal, like a 1 year, 3 mil contract, with a bunch of incentives for various IP levels.

I do NOT think they will get Cole at all, but I do think they will be in the hunt for Rendon, and will trade Seager for a front-line SP (like a Noah Syndergaard, for example).  Or, potentially, they might pursue Wheeler, whose stuff is more elite than Ryu, with the hope that they can "optimize" him in the way the Astros "optimized" Cole.

that's a solid possibility for them as well.  

I think Ryu is gonna get less play than people think.  He's never in shape, is not known to work very hard and avg'd about 50 ip over the 4 years before this one.  He's a really good pitcher when he's on the bump but if there is a guy in this FA class who I think has a max of 2 maybe 3 years of shelf life, it's him.  He's entering his age 33 season.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

He did spend big. We can call hil cheap, but in the last 8 years he handed out the biggest contract in history.... of any sport.... and the second largest contact (at the time). 

Within roughly 3 years of aquiring dead money in wells. Dead money in GMJ. Really dead money in Hamilton.

 

In some of my posts on this subject I did acknowledge that he spent big money on players past their prime, that were busts once joining the Angels. He hasn't spent big since the Hamilton disaster until extending Trout. He needs to spend big on the right players this offseason on player that are entering their prime and not leaving it. He has not approached the Tax threshold in years and it shows.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/A-s-take-note-Angels-made-the-right-hire-in-14545990.php

A’s take note: Angels made the right hire in Joe Maddon

. Phillip / Associated Press

If there’s one thing the Giants and A’s have in common, it’s the exasperation of second-class status in their divisions. The Dodgers look to be dominant well into the future, and we’ve seen the finest of the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series.

Based on recent developments, Oakland’s road is going to be even tougher next year.

The long-flawed L.A. Angels made the perfect managerial hire in Joe Maddon. He’s 65, but he’s a new-age thinker who embraces analytics, relates to every type of player and keeps things loose with his distinctive sense of humor. Maybe he wouldn’t have been the ideal choice in the Giants’ search to replace Bruce Bochy, but the young-at-heart Maddon took Tampa Bay to the 2008 World Series and managed the Cubs three years ago to their first world championship since 1908.

Maddon can get things done, and he’s certain to draw the attention of free agents hitting the market this winter. The Angels never seem to get a handle on starting pitching — if your 2019 free-agent acquisitions are Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, you’re on a treadmill to nowhere — but the Maddon-led Angels will certainly be attractive to Houston ace Gerrit Cole, who attended Orange Lutheran High School and UCLA, or the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg, who grew up in San Diego. Both men have fancied a return to Southern California, and you’d imagine Angels owner Arte Moreno will spare no expense.

**********************************

We'll see soon enough...