Chuckster70

Could the Angels build a Washington Nationals type rotation this offseason?

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3 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Because being the top arm is meaningless. What matters more is he’s had an ace like season. He’s also a year younger. He has an injury history, so best case for him is cash in now. Guarantee he doesn’t wait, although I think he likely stays with the Nats. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him go home to SD, though.  

I will agree that his postseason run has dramatically increased the odds of him opting out. Beforehand though, I don’t think it was a slam-dunk. And I do still think being the top arm could mean a sizable difference for him. 

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I agree that if Strasburg continues his postseason success, he will opt out. 

He will get more money in the long run. With pitchers, you always have to worry about them blowing their arms out. 

Can you image if he doesn't opt out, gets his 25 million next year and then at some point in the middle of the season or end of the season he blows out his elbow? Yeah he'll have a 15 million guaranteed, but he'll lose a full year and teams won't be dishing out 100's of millions of dollars to him for a long term guaranteed contract. 

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6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I will agree that his postseason run has dramatically increased the odds of him opting out. Beforehand though, I don’t think it was a slam-dunk. And I do still think being the top arm could mean a sizable difference for him. 

The only reason I could see him not opting out is the 25m next season with a massive drop off after. (Or - God forbid - he got injured). 

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3 minutes ago, TNAngelsFan71 said:

So what is your projection for Yrs/$$$ for Bumgarner and Hamels?

For Hamels, something comparable to Morton’s 2/$30m seems like a close comp, without any options. If he’s really committed to just doing one more season back in SoCal for a final run, maybe something as high as 1/$20m or as low as 1/$10m. Really depends on demand and his level of interest in playing back home. He’s also said he enjoys the NL Central. I think something more along a $12m-15m AAV is more appropriate though.

I can’t recall if he’s QO eligible, but I could also see the Cubs also extending that to him and him accepting as well. 

Bumgarner’s a little trickier. I think he can start around 4/$80m-$100m pretty easily, maybe 5 years, minimum, if Eovaldi can get 4/$68. He and Ryu both feel like a reasonable ’consolation prize’-types for whichever major contender fails to sign Cole or Strasburg. A potential ace for half the commit that helps them in the playoff battles right off the bat.

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8 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah he'll have a 15 million guaranteed, but he'll lose a full year and teams won't be dishing out 100's of millions of dollars to him for a long term guaranteed contract. 

He’ll still have $100m guaranteed 20-23, on top of $110m he’s already made. He can afford to gamble a lot more than most SPs.

If he does stay healthy and hits the market at 31, it’s still possible he comes close to a 7/$210m on top of the $135m he will have made by that point. 

But I do agree his postseason dominance is going to boost the odds. If the Nats win the WS it may also spurn desire for him to take his ring and go ‘retire’ helping a SoCal team next.

Edited by totdprods

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42 minutes ago, totdprods said:

 

(Though I still think there’s an outside shot they sign two upper-tier FA SPs and swing a trade for another guy)

This is what absolutely must happen IMO. They must bring in three pitchers from outside the organization. Two is almost certainly not going to be enough. 

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I would imagine Arte made some promises to Maddon on what the goals are. Arte wants to put the Skaggs death and all with it behind him. Look for Arte to make some big hits this off season. He`ll be all in on Cole and a few others. Can we really count on Ohtani to be the pitchers he was two years ago? Hell no. If he is its gravey. I wouldn't be surprised if they traded Adell, knowing Marsh is playing above expentations at his age. Lots of options and agree with Maddon that Fletcher is a star yet to be born.

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Bumgarner is just one year older than Cole. He’s not old and declining. He had an injury that he pitched through and once recovered he pitched as well as anyone for the months of June, July, and August.

He isn’t Cole or Strasburg, but he’s definitely #3. And if they get Cole for 30ish M, and can get Bumgarner for around 20M, and add Grandal for 16.... yes that’s $66 M to go with the 120 in contracts and 20 in arb, but a little creative bookkeeping in years one and two and they can get this team... is it enough?

 

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

For Hamels, something comparable to Morton’s 2/$30m seems like a close comp, without any options. If he’s really committed to just doing one more season back in SoCal for a final run, maybe something as high as 1/$20m or as low as 1/$10m. Really depends on demand and his level of interest in playing back home. He’s also said he enjoys the NL Central. I think something more along a $12m-15m AAV is more appropriate though.

I can’t recall if he’s QO eligible, but I could also see the Cubs also extending that to him and him accepting as well. 

Bumgarner’s a little trickier. I think he can start around 4/$80m-$100m pretty easily, maybe 5 years, minimum, if Eovaldi can get 4/$68. He and Ryu both feel like a reasonable ’consolation prize’-types for whichever major contender fails to sign Cole or Strasburg. A potential ace for half the commit that helps them in the playoff battles right off the bat.

I could be way off base here but I think Bumgarner may get under valued this off season. He may get a 4 -5 year deal (4 more likely than 5). I think clubs will look at 6 or so pitchers before him. He is only a year older than Cole and after a 4 year deal would still be a year younger than Hammels is now and his WHIP of 1.13 and K/BB 4.72 and 207.2 IP are still really solid. 

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6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Bumgarner is just one year older than Cole. He’s not old and declining. He had an injury that he pitched through and once recovered he pitched as well as anyone for the months of June, July, and August.

He isn’t Cole or Strasburg, but he’s definitely #3. And if they get Cole for 30ish M, and can get Bumgarner for around 20M, and add Grandal for 16.... yes that’s $66 M to go with the 120 in contracts and 20 in arb, but a little creative bookkeeping in years one and two and they can get this team... is it enough?

 

You posted that as I was typing mine out. lol

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2 minutes ago, TNAngelsFan71 said:

I could be way off base here but I think Bumgarner may get under valued this off season. He may get a 4 -5 year deal (4 more likely than 5). I think clubs will look at 6 or so pitchers before him. He is only a year older than Cole and after a 4 year deal would still be a year younger than Hammels is now and his WHIP of 1.13 and K/BB 4.72 and 207.2 IP are still really solid. 

Have to point out also that Bumgarner benefitted from a lot of good pitching environments in the NL West too. He’s good, no doubt, but he’s taken a step back the last couple seasons vs. his run prior.

Edited by totdprods

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His step back was really just in the beginning of 2019. 
 

2018 and 2017 were good years but he was injured in both. 
 

ERA difference between 3.2 and 2.8 in a 200 inning season is like 9 runs. 

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Have to point out also that Bumgarner benefitted from a lot of good pitching environments in the NL West too. He’s good, no doubt, but he’s taken a step back the last couple seasons vs. his run prior.

I would still have to take him at his step back level... 1.13WHIP..... Cole has a .89WHIP and he could/should be the AL CY Young award winner this year.

As a side note... Cole did not face the Astros beast of a lineup where Bumgarner faced the dodgers multiple times I believe. 

I may be willing to pay a bit more for him if he can pass on some grit to these kids the Angels have on the edges of the Show.

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Bumgarner also has about 800 more innings on that arm than Cole, despite the year difference in age.

I look at him and see Felix Hernandez or Jered Weaver. Not saying he’ll fall off a cliff, but for the money he’ll make, I don’t think he’s the type of risk the Angels need to make for the second arm. 

I also just don’t see much compelling reason for him to be interested in the Angels. He has rings already, so I imagine at this point it will be going where he will either be most comfortable (San Fran or closer to home, such as Atlanta), somewhere where he can continue his legacy, such as San Fran or NYY, or somewhere where he can continue to rack up as many rings as possible - the Angels don’t scream that right now, more the Astros, or somewhere where he can be the top dog and lead a staff or be the wise mentor, such as again, Atlanta. If he winds up the Angels #1 signee, sure, he fits the bill here, but I don’t know that he’s anyone’s first or second, maybe even third, choice for our big #1 signee. And before some wiseass says something about there being 100 million compelling reasons, pretty much any other contender can offer that too, without having to worry about needing to also bring in two other arms. 

Just don’t see a fit. I see a lot of things still likable about him and appealing, but he doesn’t strike me as being in the mix.

Edited by totdprods

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I think there are a lot of parallels between Ohtani and Strasburg. Both came into the league with unparalleled electrifying stuff. Both came into the league at a relatively cheap price. Neither really had to be developed with Strasburg being the greatest college pitcher of all time and Ohtani being one of the best Japanese pitchers ever.

Now the Angels just need a Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez. Gerrit Cole can definitely be our Scherzer, but there really isn't a Corbin in free agency. The closest you can get is Wheeler (not as good) or Ryu (not as durable and older). Our best hope at having a Corbin would be Canning thriving under an actual picking coach's instruction, not a freakin pretender like Doug White.

And Heaney isn't an Anibal. Sanchez isn't great but he's good, and Heaney was good, when he was healthy. But he's got a degenerative elbow. That's not going to get better without rest, and it seems that everyone he rests, it gets better for about a month then he's hurt again just in time for the season. I'd recommend signing Cole Hamels to be our Anibal Sanchez.

So basically, the most realistic possibility at the Angels recreating the Nationals rotation is to sign Gerrit Cole, keep Ohtani healthy, properly develop Canning and sign Hamels. 

It would cost a lot of money and require the Angels to not have the worst luck in baseball. Possible.....I guess.

Edited by Second Base

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34 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Bumgarner also has about 800 more innings on that arm than Cole, despite the year difference in age.

I look at him and see Felix Hernandez or Jered Weaver. Not saying he’ll fall off a cliff, but for the money he’ll make, I don’t think he’s the type of risk the Angels need to make for the second arm. 

I also just don’t see much compelling reason for him to be interested in the Angels. He has rings already, so I imagine at this point it will be going where he will either be most comfortable (San Fran or closer to home, such as Atlanta), somewhere where he can continue his legacy, such as San Fran or NYY, or somewhere where he can continue to rack up as many rings as possible - the Angels don’t scream that right now, more the Astros, or somewhere where he can be the top dog and lead a staff or be the wise mentor, such as again, Atlanta. If he winds up the Angels #1 signee, sure, he fits the bill here, but I don’t know that he’s anyone’s first or second, maybe even third, choice for our big #1 signee. And before some wiseass says something about there being 100 million compelling reasons, pretty much any other contender can offer that too, without having to worry about needing to also bring in two other arms. 

Just don’t see a fit. I see a lot of things still likable about him and appealing, but he doesn’t strike me as being in the mix.

I also see Atlanta as a good fit for him if SF doesn't make him a career Giant. I just think he may be someone to keep an eye on if his market is slow.  Cole is obviously the first choice and the best fit for the Angels pitching wise in a long while. It's been nice to have a bit of a debate on this with both sides having some compelling views and it not becoming a group snark fest. 

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I’m not ready to compare Ohtani to, well, anyone yet, let alone Strasburg. We had what, a dozen starts from him and didn’t get to see him at full health and strength, so I’m not sure just how good he’ll be in the MLB (a distinctively better league than he faced in Japan). I hope next year he’s a healthy, dominating stud that meets our collective expectations. 

Dont misunderstand, I’m eagerly looking forward to having him back in the rotation next year and hope he’s a friggin’ rock star. But I’m not going to let my emotional desire as a fan this overwhelm my common sense.

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4 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I wonder now with Maddon on the team, whether Hamels will consider us. 2yr 25- 30 mil is reasonable, but I could see if go cheaper for a 3rd year. 3yrs 30 mil.

Interesting thought. Hamels is from SoCal and pitched in Chicago the last season and a half with Maddon, and improved drastically from Arlington. Obviously the money would have to be equal, but he might be open to coming here.

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Yes! Signing Maddon means they’re going on a spending spree. I’d be floored if they sign Cole ... but I don’t see that happening. Too many holes to fill and not enough money to go around.  I do see at least two top tier pitchers in the rotation next season and a couple of new faces in the everyday lineup. 

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I think we can definitely build a similar rotation to Washington.

 Its starts with getting Cole. We got yourself a true number and the way he's pitching you have a 100% chance of winning.

The edge is towards Strasburg against Ohtani but not much. I am comfortable with havin Ohtani as a game 1 or 2 or 3 starter. 

Now here's the difference, who's our # 3 comparable to Corbin (2/3)

Heaney has shown the potential, but injuries have limited him.

Canning is still young, but has the stuff to dominate and be that 3

Than their are guys like Hamels or Wheeler, as well as the 21 free agency class

another thing that we have that the Nets do not, is a strong Bp (well one that is not over used)

we have the possibilities of having 2/3 guys that can shut a offense down for 6/7 innings maybe 8 and than bring in the Bp.

 

 

 

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To be honest, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Hamels...none of these guys really parallel what Strasburg is second to Scherzer, and maybe even Corbin. At one time, yeah, Bumgarner and Hamels might have but those days have passed. And Wheeler doesn’t have the track record.

If the Angels really, truly wanted to build a Washington rotation, Arte would go Facking nuts and open the pocketbook and sign both Cole and Strasburg this winter, perhaps with Eppler still swinging a major trade for a Ray, Boyd, Syndergaard-type. Take a huge hit to payroll for 2-3 years until Pujols and Upton drop off and bank on the farm to fill the offensive gaps.

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I think unless you have an unlimited budget or a couple of pre-arb studs in the lineup then more than 2 ace level pitchers is overkill. Money better spent on bats 

Edited by arch stanton

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31 minutes ago, totdprods said:

To be honest, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Hamels...none of these guys really parallel what Strasburg is second to Scherzer, and maybe even Corbin. At one time, yeah, Bumgarner and Hamels might have but those days have passed. And Wheeler doesn’t have the track record.

If the Angels really, truly wanted to build a Washington rotation, Arte would go Facking nuts and open the pocketbook and sign both Cole and Strasburg this winter, perhaps with Eppler still swinging a major trade for a Ray, Boyd, Syndergaard-type. Take a huge hit to payroll for 2-3 years until Pujols and Upton drop off and bank on the farm to fill the offensive gaps.

No one compares to Strasburg quite like Strasburg.

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