GM predictions. Open payroll and ARB number

[angelsnationtalk]

Say you're the GM and Arte decides to open the payroll up to $190M after a very disappointing season. The 2020 ARB estimates numbers have come in which add roughly $27M to the payroll that already sits around $121M. Total there is $148M on the books for the 2020 season. With $42M in available room to spend before hitting $190M what would your GM decisions be? 

I'll go first for the 2020 season contract numbers. (this only includes 2020 numbers. Some contracts will be backloaded)

Current Payroll: $148M

Sign Gerrit Cole: $28M in year one. (backloaded)

Current Payroll: $176M

Sign Zack Wheeler: $15M in year one. (slightly backloaded)

Current Payroll: $191M

no contracts for Bour (est. $2.9M), Tropeano (est. $1.1M), Garcia (est. $2.3M). Saves the Angels $6.3M

Current Payroll: $184.7M

Trade Simmons plus prospects: Saves $15M

Current Payroll: $169.7M

Acquire Noah Syndergaard in Simmons trade: Adds $10M.

Current Payroll: $179.7M

Sign Martin Maldonado: $2.3M

Current Payroll: $182M

Spend the rest of the $8M remaining on offense or bullpen help. 

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Say you're the GM and Arte decides to open the payroll up to $190M after a very disappointing season. The 2020 ARB estimates numbers have come in which add roughly $27M to the payroll that already sits around $121M. Total there is $148M on the books for the 2020 season. With $42M in available room to spend before hitting $190M what would your GM decisions be? 

I'll go first for the 2020 season contract numbers. (this only includes 2020 numbers. Some contracts will be backloaded)

Current Payroll: $148M

Sign Gerrit Cole: $28M in year one. (backloaded)

Current Payroll: $176M

Sign Zack Wheeler: $15M in year one. (slightly backloaded)

Current Payroll: $191M

no contracts for Bour (est. $2.9M), Tropeano (est. $1.1M), Garcia (est. $2.3M). Saves the Angels $6.3M

Current Payroll: $184.7M

Trade Simmons plus prospects: Saves $15M

Current Payroll: $169.7M

Acquire Noah Syndergaard in Simmons trade: Adds $10M.

Current Payroll: $179.7M

Sign Martin Maldonado: $2.3M

Current Payroll: $182M

Spend the rest of the $8M remaining on offense or bullpen help. 

Who are you trading for Thor beyond Simmons? Are you thinking he can headline it by himself?

[angelsnationtalk]

Just now, Sean-Regan said:

Who are you trading for Thor beyond Simmons? Are you thinking he can headline it by himself?

Simmons, Marsh, Suarez, Jackson.... would need few more but that's just my thought. Weather it works or not. OR Simmons and package to another team.

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Simmons, Marsh, Suarez, Jackson.... would need few more but that's just my thought. Weather it works or not. OR Simmons and package to another team.

Okay. I’ve seen some crazy proposals, so I wasn’t sure. I don’t know if Marsh would be enough of a headliner, but I’m certain Simmons wouldn’t be. Honestly, I’m not sure what Simmons value even is at the moment. 2019 did him no favors at all. 

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Sean-Regan said:

Okay. I’ve seen some crazy proposals, so I wasn’t sure. I don’t know if Marsh would be enough of a headliner, but I’m certain Simmons wouldn’t be. Honestly, I’m not sure what Simmons value even is at the moment. 2019 did him no favors at all. 

Agreed, which is why'd we'd have to overpay without trading away Adell. Maybe even eat some $ from Simmons' contract as well. I wouldn't mind trading a SP prospect if we're going to get 3 pitchers.

[Dick Enberg]

it would be nice to get Cole for 28m a year. still think it will be in the 32-33m a year.

[greginpsca]

39 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Say you're the GM and Arte decides to open the payroll up to $190M after a very disappointing season. The 2020 ARB estimates numbers have come in which add roughly $27M to the payroll that already sits around $121M. Total there is $148M on the books for the 2020 season. With $42M in available room to spend before hitting $190M what would your GM decisions be? 

I'll go first for the 2020 season contract numbers. (this only includes 2020 numbers. Some contracts will be backloaded)

Current Payroll: $148M

Sign Gerrit Cole: $28M in year one. (backloaded)

Current Payroll: $176M

Sign Zack Wheeler: $15M in year one. (slightly backloaded)

Current Payroll: $191M

no contracts for Bour (est. $2.9M), Tropeano (est. $1.1M), Garcia (est. $2.3M). Saves the Angels $6.3M

Current Payroll: $184.7M

Trade Simmons plus prospects: Saves $15M

Current Payroll: $169.7M

Acquire Noah Syndergaard in Simmons trade: Adds $10M.

Current Payroll: $179.7M

Sign Martin Maldonado: $2.3M

Current Payroll: $182M

Spend the rest of the $8M remaining on offense or bullpen help. 

Mets gym has said Thor will not be traded. Cole will be 3-5 mil more. Then a similar priced arm instead of Thor. Then save the rest of the money for trade deadline.

[angelsnationtalk]

16 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Mets gym has said Thor will not be traded. Cole will be 3-5 mil more. Then a similar priced arm instead of Thor. Then save the rest of the money for trade deadline.

GMs always say that until a good package comes their way. And yes, that’s why I said his contract is backloaded. If it’s a 7yr $217M deal it could be 28,28,30,31,33,33,34 which is still an AAV of $31M

[Chris]

Cole 30M, Grandal 20M, Odorizzi 14M, Maldonado 2M

Maddon 6M

 

 

 

[Claude]

26 minutes ago, Chris said:

Cole 30M, Grandal 20M, Odorizzi 14M, Maldonado 2M

Maddon  6M

Roberts 800k

 

 

 

There you go

[Warfarin]

5 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Say you're the GM and Arte decides to open the payroll up to $190M after a very disappointing season. The 2020 ARB estimates numbers have come in which add roughly $27M to the payroll that already sits around $121M. Total there is $148M on the books for the 2020 season. With $42M in available room to spend before hitting $190M what would your GM decisions be? 

I'll go first for the 2020 season contract numbers. (this only includes 2020 numbers. Some contracts will be backloaded)

Current Payroll: $148M

Sign Gerrit Cole: $28M in year one. (backloaded)

Current Payroll: $176M

Sign Zack Wheeler: $15M in year one. (slightly backloaded)

Current Payroll: $191M

no contracts for Bour (est. $2.9M), Tropeano (est. $1.1M), Garcia (est. $2.3M). Saves the Angels $6.3M

Current Payroll: $184.7M

Trade Simmons plus prospects: Saves $15M

Current Payroll: $169.7M

Acquire Noah Syndergaard in Simmons trade: Adds $10M.

Current Payroll: $179.7M

Sign Martin Maldonado: $2.3M

Current Payroll: $182M

Spend the rest of the $8M remaining on offense or bullpen help. 

Creative, but I don't think you get Thor for that.  I think Thor is staying in NY.

I'd alter it slightly and say this:

1.  Sign Cole/Wheeler as you said, also don't offer contracts ot the players you listed.  

2.  Trade Simba for prospects, ideally at least one mid-rotation SP prospect who is close to being ready.  I don't know his trade value, but with the infielders we currently have, as well as the litany of middle infield prospects we have just drafted in the last 2 years, I think we should have our middle infield covered.  I know this will be an unpopular move, but getting good, young cheap talent will be important in helping offset the largest contracts we are signing people to.

3.  Sign Grandal (13mil first year).  Current payroll - 182.8M.

4.  Look for low cost type SP that you can sign to a one year deal, with the expectation that he'd be a backend SP.  Allegedly, Rich Hill wants to pitch in 2020.  If the Dodgers don't bring him back, can probably sign him to a 1 year, 3mil deal, with incentives based on # of starts. He likely only pitches at most 80 innings, but those should be fairly high quality innings, which I'l take.   Payroll - 185.8M.

Lineup:  LaStella 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Grandal C, Upton LF, Goodwin RF, Fletcher SS, Thaiss/Pujols 1B, Rengifo 2B

Bench:  Smith C, Thaiss/Pujols (whoever isn't starting), Wong IF (I like his potential), Hermosillo OF

Rotation:  Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Hill.  Beyond them, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, "SP prospect acquired in Simba trade," Peters in AAA as depth.

Pen:  Robles, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Middleton, Noe Ramirez, Pena, Bard, etc

 

Then, sometime in 2020, Adell takes over for Goodwin, who then becomes our 4th OF.  By 2021, Marsh takes over LF, Upton shifts to 1B/DH (when Ohtani sits), and Pujols is gone somehow.  

I think this is a pretty good team that's at least a WC contender.

 

 

 

[Claude]

Please everyone stop with the Upton to 1B idea. 

[T.G.]

Arbitration!!

[Dick B Back]

15 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Weather it works or not. 

 

[Hubs]

23 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Say you're the GM and Arte decides to open the payroll up to $190M after a very disappointing season. The 2020 ARB estimates numbers have come in which add roughly $27M to the payroll that already sits around $121M. Total there is $148M on the books for the 2020 season. With $42M in available room to spend before hitting $190M what would your GM decisions be? 

I'll go first for the 2020 season contract numbers. (this only includes 2020 numbers. Some contracts will be backloaded)

Current Payroll: $140M - dropped Bour, Tropeano, Garcia, and Stassi.

Sign Gerrit Cole: $20M in year one. (backloaded)

Current Payroll: $160

Sign Madison Bumgarner: $18M in year one. (slightly backloaded)

Current Payroll: $178 M

Sign Yasmani Grandal $9M in Year one.

 

Current Payroll: $187M

Acquire Jeff Samardzija +18 for Calhoun -1, Cozart - 12.75, Rengifo, Hermosillo, Barria.

Current Payroll: $192M

Spend the rest of the $8M remaining on offense or bullpen help. 

Ok, Fixed. Acquiring three starters plus a Catcher for Infield/Outfield surplus. It will cost more than $192, though as All three signings probably start $3M higher each, and We'd have to kick in $4M in the Samardizja trade to make the dollars work.