The Curse of Jered Weaver

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, azmancini said:

Google is your friend!

Oh so you're calling me a child molester. Sweet.

[Stradling]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Oh so you're calling me a child molester. Sweet.

 Is that really what it means?  Awesome.  

[John Taylor]

7 minutes ago, azmancini said:

No, Chomo.  Or he could be a Chollo Chomo?

 

Cholo Chomo love is such a beautiful thing.....

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

That goes without saying.

Hey, imagine if we had Vlad Jr. at 3rd right now.

Imagine him, corbin and clevinger...

Literally, this team would have an entirely different vibe right now.

Its crazy how literally 3 guys that we had, for league min, could change EVERYTHING.

[Stradling]

If we signed Vlad Jr, Dipoto would have traded him to get Darren O’ Day back. 

[Claude]

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

(I wrote this in a rush, so forgive any factual errors).

While the Angels have had numerous problems over the last decade, probably the biggest one—at least in recent years—has been the starting rotation. The Angels have had misfotune upon misfortune, beyond the point of black comedy into sheer tragedy. I call this the Curse of Jered Weaver.

Why poor old Jered? Well, the run of terrible luck could begin with the preternatural decline of Weaver from staff ace to batting practice pitcher, in just a few short years. Weaver was a very good pitcher from his debut in 2006, peaking in 2010-11 when he pitched 460 innings, accrueing 11.3 fWAR and an ERA well below 3.00. The following year he won 20 games with a 2.81 ERA, but his strikeout rate continued to plummet and with it, his WAR dropped to 3.1 from 5.4 the year before. You can also track the clear trajectory of rising FIP that pretty accurately predict the next year’s performance. By 2015 he was a replacement level pitcher.

What happened? Very simply, his arm turned to mush. His velocity dropped from reaching the mid 90s into early 2012, to never touching 90 from 2015 on (I literally think he didn’t throw a 90 mph fastball after 2014). Or take a look here. Notice the big drop within the 2012 season, when Jered Weaver injured himself here. Despite what the broadcasters say, it wasn’t his knee but his back. 

That 2012 rotation looked great on paper: with Weaver was CJ Wilson, Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, and trade deadline import, Zack Greinke (who cost the Angels Jean Segura). But Weaver was starting to slip, Wilson was solid but not great, Santana had an off year, Haren was in decline, and Greinke would leave for a big payday.

2012 was the year that Arte and Jerry had made their big splashes in Pujols and Wilson, and Trout’s amazing rookie season. It was supposed to be the beginning of a new era. The Angels did win 89 games, but fell short of a playoff berth.

The 2013 rotation (and team) was a trainwreck. Not only did Pujols continue to get worse, but the Angels brought in Josh Hamilton, who was a huge disappointment. But the focus here is on the rotation: Wilson had his best year as an Angel and Weaver broke his non-throwing elbow in April, although came back a the end of May and, while throwing softer, was still able to get by on guile, somehow managing a 3.27 ERA . But Dipoto filled out the rest of the ranks with mediocrities like Jerome Williams, Jason Vargas, Joe Blanton, and Tommy Hanson. 2013 also saw the debut of a promising, if raw, rookie in Garret Richards, and a single start by a minor league veteran, Matt Shoemaker.

2014 was a bounceback year for the Angels, the sign that the promise of 2012 might actually be fulfilled. The rotation was revamped with a young stud in Richards, a surprise performance by Shoemaker, the return of former farmhand Tyler Skaggs, and the import of Hector Santiago, the four of whom looked to form the core of a new, younger rotation.

In the offseason, Dipoto traded Howie Kendrick for promising young pitcher Andrew Heaney, and Hank Conger netted them Nick Tropeano, further depeening the young staff. So in 2015, the Angels had a younger, fresher rotation with plenty of promise. But Richards wasn’t quite the same, although still solid. Santiago had his best year, but Shoemaker struggled for the most part. Heaney looked solid in 18 starts, but Skaggs was out for the year with Tommy John Surgery, the first of many.

By 2016, a rotation that should have been starting to come into its own was in shambles. It was Weaver’s last and worst year as an Angel (he started a few games for the Padres in 2017 and was even worse). Santiago continued to be erratic and never took his talent to the next level. Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, and Tropeano were all in various stages of Tommy John past, present or future. Matt Shoemaker was the one ray of light, pitching at an elite level for a stretch of time and good overall.

2017 was supposed to be the year that everyone came back strong and healthy. But Richards hurt himself (again). Shoemaker struggled with injury, Skaggs pitched half a season, Heaney was out most of the year, Tropeano the entire year. Eppler brought in a host of peanuts, one of whom proved to be clean and shiny: promising Alex Meyer, who then proceeded to get injured and never came back, retiring earlier this year.

2018 finally saw what looked to be a healthy staff. But, you guessed it, Richards was injured again and finally went under the knife for Tommy John Surgery. It was the last we were to see of the pitcher who was supposed to inherit the title of “Angels Ace” in the line of Weaver-Lackey-Washburn-Finley-Witt-Tanana-Ryan-Messersmith-Chance. Heaney was finally healthy and had a solid, if unspectacular year. Skaggs came back and was also solid but unspectactular. Tropeano was passable, as was newcomer Felix Pena. Rookie Jaime Barria was a bit of a surprise, but it was also clear was getting by on a bit of smoek and mirrors. And then we had the biggest splash of them all: Shohei Ohtani, who looked brilliant if a bit erratic. But he eventually went under the knife for TJS.

Consider the names of Angels who have undergone TJS over the last half decade: Skaggs, Richards, Heaney, Tropeano, Meyer, Ohtani, and I’m probably missing someone. Shoemaker had his own injuries.

Eppler tried a patchjob this year. He let Richards and Shoemaker go and brought in Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey, both of whom were awful. Heaney struggled with more injury and Skaggs died. None of the young pitchers—Barria, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval—proved to be instant successes, although  all showed varying degrees of promise, or at least usefulness. The end result, of course, has been what looks like the worst Angels season in two decades.

Maybe, hopefully, 2020 will be different. As has been stated many times, the problem for the Angels pitching staff is not only injury, but elite talent - or a lack thereof. What is strange, odd, darkly comic and even tragic, is that none one of that promising group turned out to be even a consistent #3 or better starter. One or two still might, and we can still hope that Ohtani will fill his ace potential and transfer the dominance on the mound he showed in Japan and for many of his ten starts last year. But the return rate on this group has just been terrible.

But it all goes back to Jered Weaver, that back injury in 2012, his gumby arm, and the tragedy of injury and (in one case) death that has been the Angels rotation from 2013-19.

and when Matt Harvey strained his left glute back in February you knew it was going to be another one of those years.

[disarcina]

wow - this thread went off the rails,

as for Jered Weaver -- I always give him credit for not only being one of the greatest Halos pitchers of all time but for also signing that contract extension for a hometown discount that kept him in Anaheim,

when he signed that extension his status as an ace starter was such he could have negotiated a huge contract with some other teams (like his brother JEFF did about three times after Jeff's early career success with a lousy team at the time (Detroit) -- but Jeff signed large deals with the Dodgers, Yankees and then Seattle (after having some post season success with St. Louis that seem to resuscitate his career) -- like many Seattle signings, the Jeff Weaver one was a total flop for the Mariners,  Jered stayed with the Angels -- could have gone for the big money but took a home town discount to stay in Anaheim.  

[AngelArcher]

On 9/20/2019 at 1:47 PM, tdawg87 said:

Dipoto traded away Clevinger for Vinnie Fuckin Pestano. He also traded Corbin for Haren.

Basically, Jerry Dipoto is mentally retarded.

 

Reagins traded Corbin and Skaggs for Haren. Dipoto was with Arizona, but yeah that Clevinger trade was really retarded.

 

[W.E. Baxter Author]

Curse of Jared Weaver? I think that would rate with the Curse of the Cowboy. I never gave any merit to The Curse of the Cowboy. One, I doubt that Anaheim Stadium was built on an Indian Burial Ground, and two, even if it was, that was the city's doing, not Gene Autry's and not The Angels Organization's doing. So, why would they be cursed? The Major League Urban Legends such as the "Curse of the Bambino (Red Sox)" or the "Curse of the Billy Goat (Cubs)" were basically "Poetic Justice" for the Front Offices of these two franchises putting themselves and greed FIRST over the Fans, and breaking a lot of hearts in the community. Those two MLB Urban Legends are not some superstitious hocus-pocus like the Curse of the Cowboy would suggest, but simply "Poetic Justice" for dissing fans and not putting them first. The "Curse of the Black Sox" is another example of that, except it was players putting themselves first, and breaking a lot of fan's hearts. I believe that there is an urban legend much like The Bambino or The Billy Goat which is affecting The Angels (Journalist Dana Parsons of the Los Angeles Times was the author in 2008), but it's not the Curse of the Cowboy and not Jared Weaver. I just had a book published on this.

[Angelsjunky]

The Haren trade wasn't bad at the time. Dan Haren was a really good pitcher, either a great #2 or a lesser #1. Skaggs and Corbin were young and Skaggs was considered the better prospect. On John Sickels 2010 list, Skaggs was #7 and Corbin #20. Trevor Reckling was the top ranked pitching prospect, with Garret Richards and Fabio Martinez-Mesa (remember him?) ranked ahead of Skaggs. So the Angels essentially traded their 4th and 5th best pitching prospects for a borderline ace.

That ranking also goes to show you just how much a crapshoot prospect projection is. In addition to those already mentioned, Sickels also had Jordan Walden, Jon Bachanov, Trevor Bell, Ryan Chaffee, Tyler Chatwood, Michael Kohn, Tyler Hehrer, and Will Smith all ranked ahead of Corbin. As of now, Corbin has been the most accomplished pitcher from that prospect list - and he was ranked last of the 13.