After today Pujols will have played in more games than Trout in the last 3 years

[Troll Daddy]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Despite the fact that you are stuck in a pre-sabermetrics paradigm and seem to almost willfully resist understanding WAR, I'll break it down for you. First and foremost that it is meant to represent the total contribution of a player, meaning their hitting, their baserunning, their defense, and with a positional adjustment (meaning, Albert would have a higher WAR if he was a shortstop, everything else being equal).

Albert's hitting .251/.311/.448, which is a 99 wRC+ -- almost exactly league average (100 wRC+), but below average for a first baseman. Add in the fact that he's a bad baserunner and a below average defender and you get -0.1, pretty much a replacement player. 

I think fWAR perfectly describes Pujols: he's basically a replacement player. What that means is that Albert could be easily replaced by a minor league journeyman. 

Thanks for trying ... I’m still waiting for a minor league journeyman to put up anything close to Pujols.  

[thebloob]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Thanks for trying ... I’m still waiting for a minor league journeyman to put up anything close to Pujols.  

Obviously this doesn’t reflect his career but look around this year.  Not that tough to find .250 hitters with 20hr.  Most of them can run too and maybe even play above average defense.  I personally am devaluing home run numbers this year.  When the mlb record will be beat by 10% there is something up. 

[Troll Daddy]

8 minutes ago, thebloob said:

Obviously this doesn’t reflect his career but look around this year.  Not that tough to find .250 hitters with 20hr.  Most of them can run too and maybe even play above average defense.  I personally am devaluing home run numbers this year.  When the mlb record will be beat by 10% there is something up. 

Okay,  let’s not beat a dead horse here yet, the Angels are still looking for that player you said is not tough to find. 

[Docwaukee]

Albert with RISP as a halo:

.279/.363/.462/.825 with wRC+ of 117

with the bases empty:

.244/.287/.444/.731 with a wRC+ of 101

the thing that grinds my gears about this is that he's had almost 1400 PA with RISP as an Angel so clearly he he has a skill and it's not just an aberration.  He obviously takes a different approach and the numbers back that up.  

Why the F hasn't he taken this approach in every at bat and not just with RISP?  

I'll  tell you why.  I figured it was that he hit the ball to the opposite field more with RISP.  Nope.  Then I thought it was maybe that he was more of a line drive guy with RISP.  Nope.  

What I realized is that he actually didn't change his approach at all.  They just changed the defense against him when no one was on.

Fangraphs only has data on shifts for the last 6 years.  Of which he's accumulated 3645 PA

with runners on, they've shifted on him 503 of 1642 PA or about 31% of the time (PA which he didn't walk)

with no runners on, they've shifted 956 times in 1751 PA in which he didn't walk or about 55% of the time.  

[Tank]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think fWAR perfectly describes Pujols: he's basically a replacement player. What that means is that Albert could be easily replaced by a minor league journeyman. 

Justin Bour disagrees.

[Angelsjunky]

6 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Thanks for trying ... I’m still waiting for a minor league journeyman to put up anything close to Pujols.  

Close to Pujols? How good do you think he is? He's a league average hitter. Even his 23 HR is exactly the median for all qualifying hitters. He's a terrible baserunner and, at this point in his career, no better than a mediocre defender at a non-premium position. All of that adds up to a replacement level player.

[Angelsjunky]

48 minutes ago, Tank said:

Justin Bour disagrees.

I said "a" replacement player, not "all" or "any" replacement player.

There are dozens of guys in AAA who could fill Albert's shoes. The Angels promoted several of them.

[ispy45]

54 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I said "a" replacement player, not "all" or "any" replacement player.

There are dozens of guys in AAA who could fill Albert's shoes. The Angels promoted several of them.

Name 6

[Lou]

4 hours ago, Tank said:

Justin Bour disagrees.

so does Jared Walsh

[Lou]

Just now, Lou said:

so does Jared Walsh

so does Matt Thaiss 

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Albert with RISP as a halo:

.279/.363/.462/.825 with wRC+ of 117

with the bases empty:

.244/.287/.444/.731 with a wRC+ of 101

the thing that grinds my gears about this is that he's had almost 1400 PA with RISP as an Angel so clearly he he has a skill and it's not just an aberration.  He obviously takes a different approach and the numbers back that up.  

Why the F hasn't he taken this approach in every at bat and not just with RISP?  

I'll  tell you why.  I figured it was that he hit the ball to the opposite field more with RISP.  Nope.  Then I thought it was maybe that he was more of a line drive guy with RISP.  Nope.  

What I realized is that he actually didn't change his approach at all.  They just changed the defense against him when no one was on.

Fangraphs only has data on shifts for the last 6 years.  Of which he's accumulated 3645 PA

with runners on, they've shifted on him 503 of 1642 PA or about 31% of the time (PA which he didn't walk)

with no runners on, they've shifted 956 times in 1751 PA in which he didn't walk or about 55% of the time.  

Except the eye test seems to show me at least he hits the ball to the right side more with RISP. 

[Angel Oracle]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Albert with RISP as a halo:

.279/.363/.462/.825 with wRC+ of 117

with the bases empty:

.244/.287/.444/.731 with a wRC+ of 101

the thing that grinds my gears about this is that he's had almost 1400 PA with RISP as an Angel so clearly he he has a skill and it's not just an aberration.  He obviously takes a different approach and the numbers back that up.  

Why the F hasn't he taken this approach in every at bat and not just with RISP?  

I'll  tell you why.  I figured it was that he hit the ball to the opposite field more with RISP.  Nope.  Then I thought it was maybe that he was more of a line drive guy with RISP.  Nope.  

What I realized is that he actually didn't change his approach at all.  They just changed the defense against him when no one was on.

Fangraphs only has data on shifts for the last 6 years.  Of which he's accumulated 3645 PA

with runners on, they've shifted on him 503 of 1642 PA or about 31% of the time (PA which he didn't walk)

with no runners on, they've shifted 956 times in 1751 PA in which he didn't walk or about 55% of the time.  

Basically, the shift degraded his career here, because the RISP OPS is actually very solid.

[floplag]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the stat is what it is.  If you understand how it works then it would make a lot more sense.  

Doc weve had many discussion around here about its merits and what not, and you were part of them, save the cheap shots for something else. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Albert with RISP as a halo:

.279/.363/.462/.825 with wRC+ of 117

with the bases empty:

.244/.287/.444/.731 with a wRC+ of 101

the thing that grinds my gears about this is that he's had almost 1400 PA with RISP as an Angel so clearly he he has a skill and it's not just an aberration.  He obviously takes a different approach and the numbers back that up.  

Why the F hasn't he taken this approach in every at bat and not just with RISP?  

I'll  tell you why.  I figured it was that he hit the ball to the opposite field more with RISP.  Nope.  Then I thought it was maybe that he was more of a line drive guy with RISP.  Nope.  

What I realized is that he actually didn't change his approach at all.  They just changed the defense against him when no one was on.

Fangraphs only has data on shifts for the last 6 years.  Of which he's accumulated 3645 PA

with runners on, they've shifted on him 503 of 1642 PA or about 31% of the time (PA which he didn't walk)

with no runners on, they've shifted 956 times in 1751 PA in which he didn't walk or about 55% of the time.  

I think with the bases empty he’s trying to hit a HR, or at least a double, because a single is still going to take 2 more hits to score him. 

I think they defend him differently because he has a different approach. 

[Docwaukee]

50 minutes ago, floplag said:

Doc weve had many discussion around here about its merits and what not, and you were part of them, save the cheap shots for something else. 

I know that came off kinda snarky but I didn't intend it to.  My point is that people still look at it and think it's telling them things that it's not.  when I get some time, I'll break it down in a way that helped me grasp it better and why it uses certain components and not others.  I think it helped me to understand why a guy like Albert could have a value as low as he does even though on the surface it doesn't seem like he should.  

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Baghdad Strad said:

Except the eye test seems to show me at least he hits the ball to the right side more with RISP. 

I thought that at first as well, but the numbers don't bear that out.  I agree that the eye test tells us exactly what Jeff said that he was gearing for the extra base hit when the bases were empty.  That probably made shifting against him even more effective but who knows.  

[Angelsfan1984]

19 hours ago, rageous said:

His hitting is basically league average for his position but his bad defense and baserunning weigh him down.

I thought it was all that steak and potatos weighing him down, but I guess bad defense can do it too.

[Angelsjunky]

10 hours ago, ispy45 said:

Name 6

You want me to scour the minor league rosters of 30 teams just to defend some random dude on the internet? 

But I can name three on the Angels that, given enough playing time, could roughly equal Pujols replacement level output: Walsh, Ward, and Thaiss. That's (at least) three in one org, and only players who play 1B. I'm fairly certain it wouldn't be hard to find dozens of replacement players who can play 1B in AAA and on major league benches.

[Troll Daddy]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

You want me to scour the minor league rosters of 30 teams just to defend some random dude on the internet? 

But I can name three on the Angels that, given enough playing time, could roughly equal Pujols replacement level output: Walsh, Ward, and Thaiss. That's (at least) three in one org, and only players who play 1B. I'm fairly certain it wouldn't be hard to find dozens of replacement players who can play 1B in AAA and on major league benches.