The age of our rotation

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Signing two good starters in the offseason to go with two returning 2018 starters in Heaney and Ohtani, and two returning 2019 starters in Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria is a recipe for success.

I'd like Bumgarner and Cole, if only because I think Bumgarner commands less years, and Cole is the best starter available. I'd also consider Cole and Keuchel.

If they can give one guy 5 or 6 years, in Cole, and the other guy 3-4 years the rotation lines up for the next 4 years like this:

• 2020: Cole (age 29 season), Ohtani (age 25 season), Bumgarner (age 30 season), Heaney (age 29 season), Canning (Age 24 season), Suarez (Age 22 Season)
• 2021: Cole (age 30 season), Ohtani (age 26 season), Bumgarner (age 31 season), Heaney (age 30 season), Canning (Age 25 season), Suarez (Age 23 Season)
• 2022: Cole (age 31 season), Ohtani (age 27 season), Bumgarner (age 32 season), Canning (Age 26 season), Suarez (Age 24 Season)
• 2023: Cole (age 32 season), Ohtani (age 28 season), Canning (Age 27 season), Suarez (Age 25 Season), Rookie/FA, Rookie/FA

Looks good to me.

Remember too though that after 2020 season, this is the SP class set to hit free agency.
The ages shown reflect the age of their 2021 campaign. 

• Robbie Ray: LHP, 29, averaging 27 GS, 150 IP, 3.87 ERA, 11.2 K/9 the last five years
• Marcus Stroman: RHP, 30, groundball specialist with a career 3.79 ERA in 800 IP/137 G
• James Paxton: LHP,  32, oft-injured but dominant when healthy, not faring well in AL East, could do better back West
• Trevor Bauer: RHP, 30, not an option if we sign Cole, but an intriguing arm nonetheless
• Mike Minor: LHP, 33, 3.55 ERA in two seasons with the Rangers, durable with strong peripherals, not needing a long-commitment 
• Masahiro Tanaka: RHP, 32, starting to show some signs of decline, Ohtani countryman, still strong peripherals
• Aaron Sanchez: RHP, 28, because who knows what the Astros might do to him. He already looks like a different pitcher through two games (0.82 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 3 H, 5 BB,12 K,  in 11 IP)
• Stephen Strasburg: RHP, 32, could he opt-out and look to close out his career in SoCal with a new deal? 3.22 ERA in 231 career starts, with 1629 strikeouts in 1387 IP. 2.96 FIP. 1.09 WHIP. 10.6 K/9.
• Taijuan Walker: RHP, 27, age is still on his side, even if injuries have derailed his career. Was breaking out in Arizona.
• Garrett Richards: RHP, 32, already dealing with some setbacks in his TJ rehab, could wind up an option if he puts together a healthy 2020 campaign with SDG.
• Anthony DeSclafani: RHP, 31, would benefit with a move away from Cincy and NL Central parks, showing improving K rates while maintaining solid peripherals
• Robbie Erlin: LHP, 30, used mostly in relief this year and a history of injury issues, but long produced solid peripherals. Future is likely in relief, but a breakout '20 campaign could line him up for a nice payday.
• Kevin Gausman: RHP, 30, mercurial, yet reliable, SP has shown wildly mixed results since leaving Baltimore. Could be the next Alex Cobb just as easily as he could be the next Lance Lynn. 
• Mike Fiers: RHP, 36, constantly outpitches his peripherals, age will likely slow him down, but can't argue with consistency. Paul Byrd 2.0?

Not to mention guys who could sign one-year deals this offseason to rebuild value, will be limited by age, or are coming off injury concerns, and may be FA again next offseason:

• Michael Wacha: RHP, 29, a poor 2019 is going to hurt his first foray into free agency, but talented and young.
• Martin Perez: LHP, 30, a steady presence on the Rangers staff for years, he fell apart in '18 and has been revived in Minnesota, showing dramatic increased velocity and dramatic increase in K/9 (up 2.2 , from 5.5 to 7.7) while keeping other trends in check. 
• Cole Hamels: LHP, 37, by this time, he might be on a Kuroda/Sabathia-esque year-to-year retirement tour, and the Angels could be an option for the SoCal son.
• Rich Hill: LHP, 41, like Hamels, he'll likely be year-to-year at this point, if he's even pitching at all. But if he's effective in 2020, a one-year deal might be worth exploring.
• Wade Miley: LHP, 34, with his age and track record, landing multi-year deals could be tough for Miley, but he's thrown extremely well this year. If he signs another one-year pact, he could be an option again next year.
• Tanner Roark: RHP, 34, at his age, he'll likely be in line for one-year deals here on out. Steady, durable arm with track record of 180 IP, 4.00 ERA. 
• Michael Pineda: RHP, 32, first year back from TJS has brought mixed, but solid results. Yankee ties could put him on Eppler's radar. 
• Rick Porcello: RHP, 32, a poor 2019 might limit him to one-year offers this winter. If he returns to any sort of 4.00-4.20 ERA form, could be in line for a multi-year deal after 2020.
• Matt Moore: LHP, 32, was off to a great start in '19 in two games before tearing his meniscus. If he shows any strong signs in '20, he could emerge an option.
• Alex Wood: RHP, 30, steady NL arm only now returning to play after injury, but age is on his side, and a strong '19-'20 could put him on a team's mid-rotation radar.
• Kyle Gibson: RHP, 33, nothing fancy, but a lot of durability and consistency. 

That's a lot of starting pitching talent set to become available next year. Cole is an obvious target for 2020, but the rest of the arms? Bumgarner? Hamels? Odorizzi? Wheeler? They'd help, but I wouldn't break the bank going after them just to help 2020. 
I wouldn't necessarily want to clog up payroll for Bumgarner in 2020 if it meant we couldn't pursue Ray the following year.

I'd prefer the Angels pursue Cole, trade for a #2-#4 type with control and low salary, and then be opportunistic on short-commitment deals given the dearth of FA arms available the next two years, rather than overspend on someone like Bumgarner or Wheeler for 3-4 years and $12m-$18m+ annually.

[Docwaukee]

37 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I thought they could've competed for a wild card because I saw this offensive surge happening. They're gonna top 800 runs scored likely, which I figured even with a bad pitching year like they had in 2018, they could compete for both wild cards, and if Houston losing Keuchel and teh other guys they lost, they could compete for the division on the outside.

Last year they gave up 722 runs, and scored 721. This year they're going to score over 800 but also allow over 800. I hoped Cahill and Harvey could give us 50 starts in the 4.2-4.5  ERA range. I hoped that Allen could return to 2017 form. Instead all three have been objectively terrible, and they lost their best starter to a tragic in season death, so this season's pitching has been 100-200 runs worse than what I hoped for.

Signing two good starters in the offseason to go with two returning 2018 starters in Heaney and Ohtani, and two returning 2019 starters in Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria is a recipe for success.

I'd like Bumgarner and Cole, if only because I think Bumgarner commands less years, and Cole is the best starter available. I'd also consider Cole and Keuchel.

If they can give one guy 5 or 6 years, in Cole, and the other guy 3-4 years the rotation lines up for the next 4 years like this:

2020: Cole (age 29 season), Ohtani (age 25 season), Bumgarner (age 30 season), Heaney (age 29 season), Canning (Age 24 season), Suarez (Age 22 Season)

2021: Cole (age 30 season), Ohtani (age 26 season), Bumgarner (age 31 season), Heaney (age 30 season), Canning (Age 25 season), Suarez (Age 23 Season)

2022: Cole (age 31 season), Ohtani (age 27 season), Bumgarner (age 32 season), Canning (Age 26 season), Suarez (Age 24 Season)

2023: Cole (age 32 season), Ohtani (age 28 season), Canning (Age 27 season), Suarez (Age 25 Season), Rookie/FA, Rookie/FA

Looks good to me.

I had a feeling our SP wasn't good enough but I didn't expect them to completely implode.  This team was good in 2018 when we had Ohtani and Richards at the top of the rotation with Skaggs and Heaney pitching well.  Then it fell apart when Richards and Shohei got hurt and Skaggs continued to pitch while he wasn't 100%.  

Next year we'll have Heaney and Ohtani of course and therefore we need Skaggs replacement and a Richards equivalent that can stay healthy.  I go back and forth as to whether acquiring two starters is gonna be enough though.  

I am iffy on Bumgarner.  There are some red flags there with his home road splits.  I have more confidence in him than I did Keuchel.  I also wonder how the qual offer comes into play with him.  My feeling is that if you can get Cole, then you shouldn't be afraid to add another guy who had a qual attached because i believe when you lose two picks it becomes your 2nd and 4th rounders.  

I think Bum is gonna get that 4th year for maybe around 70m total.  I hate that mid level SP market.  There are land mines everywhere.  I don't now how I want to see Eppler navigate this one yet.  I'm not huge on trading away any major assets at this point as well.  Although as I type, I see that @totdprods has replied to this thread which I am sure mentions us making a trade 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think Bum is gonna get that 4th year for maybe around 70m total.  I hate that mid level SP market.  There are land mines everywhere.  I don't now how I want to see Eppler navigate this one yet.  I'm not huge on trading away any major assets at this point as well.  Although as I type, I see that @totdprods has replied to this thread which I am sure mentions us making a trade 

Ha! Actually, I was backing you up more on the dangers of over-paying for mid-tier arms, without knowing it.

I do think a trade is our best route for a second option behind an assumed Gerrit Cole, but following that, I don't really want a bunch of money and years thrown at #2-#4 FA SP types. If we are to sign guys like that, I'd prefer it be on one-year deals for elder statesman vets (Hamels), rebound candidates (hopefully better than Cahill/Harvey), or the real cheap bargain fliers (Gio, Miley, Hellickson) and hope for the best.