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Jo Adell to AAA Salt lake


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.227/.320/.398/.718 since July 1st for Jo Adell, across 33 G/148 PA, with 12 XBH, 17 BB, and 45 K.

I still don’t think declining Calhoun’s option is automatic. Adell is extremely young still and without much pro games under his belt yet. 

I wouldn’t mind if the Halos just went after Cole or another arm, kept Calhoun for another year, and used 2020 to play the kids out everywhere else and see what happens. Maybe Calhoun, Simmons, and La Stella can be flipped at the deadline...lots of money coming off the books and a full year of experience for the kiddos going into 2021.

Edited by totdprods
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A little adversity is a good thing. He rose so quickly it's as if he never had his luggage unpacked for two years. Let him grind out the heat of August and place him on the roster for his cup of coffee in September to learn from Calhoun and Trout how to play a major league outfield. His bat is going to come around, that is not even a question in my mind. I'm more concerned about his defensive skills rising to the level of MLB play.

That is really his make or break. He has the speed, he has the arm strength (although not as good as Calhoun) but can he get that first step in the right direction, track the ball properly and take the right route whether it's to cath the ball, cut it off, play it off the wall or carrom or position properly to throw a runner out. 

September is his time to absorb the years of MLB experience from our outfielders and have some things to work on during his break, other than weightlifting, so he is ready for Spring training. 

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Adell has all the tools. He’s a terrific athlete. The jump from AA to AAA is a challenge that he’ll handle in time. The jump from AAA to the ML roster is always a question mark with every prospect. Some of the best prospects can sometimes end up being tweeners. Adell will be surrounded by some solid veterans that can help him get where he needs to be.

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1 hour ago, Blarg said:

A little adversity is a good thing. He rose so quickly it's as if he never had his luggage unpacked for two years. Let him grind out the heat of August and place him on the roster for his cup of coffee in September to learn from Calhoun and Trout how to play a major league outfield. His bat is going to come around, that is not even a question in my mind. I'm more concerned about his defensive skills rising to the level of MLB play.

That is really his make or break. He has the speed, he has the arm strength (although not as good as Calhoun) but can he get that first step in the right direction, track the ball properly and take the right route whether it's to cath the ball, cut it off, play it off the wall or carrom or position properly to throw a runner out. 

September is his time to absorb the years of MLB experience from our outfielders and have some things to work on during his break, other than weightlifting, so he is ready for Spring training. 

I also think that some forget about Trout's struggles up here (over about 120 at bats), after being promoted at age 19 (20th birthday celebrated just after arriving) in 2011.   He sure put those struggles in the past the very next season, with pretty much an historic rookie season at age 20/21.

Adell isn't Trout, but like Trout, he has a level head on his shoulders to learn from the current struggles. 

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26 minutes ago, RBM said:

I would be surprised if Eppler picks up Calhoun's $14 M option. His priority, as stated, is signing two starting pitchers with controllable years either through FA or a trade. He will need the net $13 M for this.

Adell is struggling right now but I don't think his MLB readiness changes anything. If Eppler thinks Adell needs more time he can pick up a FA for a fraction of Calhoun's $14 M. He also has Goodwin or even Fletcher available to start the season in RF.

Based on this season, Goodwin is a good option to have for at least the first part of 2020.   And if he is still playing well and Adell is ready, they can always move the then 33 year-old Upton to 1B since Pujols' time there will need to be limited at age 40.  

I would rather use the $14 million in 2020 (and beyond) on a second pitcher joining Cole and thus allowing Ohtani/Canning/Heaney/Sandoval/Suarez/Barria/Pena to not have so much pressure put on them.   Cole + second (#3/#4) starter = potential 2020 second WC contention, with only a 2020 second round draft pick lost.

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1 hour ago, RBM said:

I would be surprised if Eppler picks up Calhoun's $14 M option. His priority, as stated, is signing two starting pitchers with controllable years either through FA or a trade. He will need the net $13 M for this.

Adell is struggling right now but I don't think his MLB readiness changes anything. If Eppler thinks Adell needs more time he can pick up a FA for a fraction of Calhoun's $14 M. He also has Goodwin or even Fletcher available to start the season in RF.

 

53 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Based on this season, Goodwin is a good option to have for at least the first part of 2020.   And if he is still playing well and Adell is ready, they can always move the then 33 year-old Upton to 1B since Pujols' time there will need to be limited at age 40.  

I would rather use the $14 million in 2020 (and beyond) on a second pitcher joining Cole and thus allowing Ohtani/Canning/Heaney/Sandoval/Suarez/Barria/Pena to not have so much pressure put on them.   Cole + second (#3/#4) starter = potential 2020 second WC contention, with only a 2020 second round draft pick lost.

Maybe. I'm not so sure of any of these outcomes anymore, to be honest. 

I don't think we can truly count on any one of Goodwin, Adell, or Calhoun as the opening day RF. Calhoun due to money, Adell due to MLB-readiness, Goodwin's only produced up here when he's had unsustainable .400 BABip streaks. 
I don't think signing Gerrit Cole is enough - they need two arms, but likely don't have money for two arms, even without Calhoun. 
They could sign an arm and trade for an arm, but I'm not sure if the talent dealt away for that arm would have enough internal options ready to replace cheaply...
As much sense as it makes to save the money, and as much stock as Eppler has put into building the farm, he has yet to go into Opening Day with a rookie tabbed for a role.
He's always propped up a vet to take the lead first. That makes me doubt Adell is here Opening Day '20.

It's going to be a really interesting offseason I think, and one that will be really telling on what Eppler's perception of what the contention timeline will be.

As this season drags on, more and more I'm suspecting a far more conservative, methodical approach this winter than what I would have expected a couple months ago. I do think they're going to go in hard after Gerrit Cole regardless, because he'd be a key piece well beyond 2020, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did very little else should they fail to sign him - perhaps another offseason of one-year SP deals and attempts to replicate cheaper high-value deals like Goodwin and La Stella. 

The kids arrived a lot earlier than expected and have performed well enough to start grooming them for the future - but arguably, it's fair to say this wave arrived a year early. 
The Angels are due to start shedding a lot of money next offseason (and even this offseason, really) and for the next few offseasons following - when you consider that and the success Eppler has had building the farm system up each year, it makes sense to still hang tight for another year until the current wave of young guys actually starts producing big results. 

For some reason, I think of the Braveheart cavalry charge scene where Wallace has the spears hold unnervingly long - I could see Eppler doing the same with the current MLB team and farm, where he doesn't really go all-in (trading, signing, opting for rookies over vets to open the year) until it's straight-up painful for some of us...which is happening now. How long will he have us hold?

Edited by totdprods
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12 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Only way they keep Calhoun next season is if they’re punting on pitching and competing for a playoff spot. That or Adell isn’t ready AND Arte spends big. Even in that scenario, though, Arte would basically have to insist they keep Kole. 

They can still keep Calhoun and spend on pitching, there are just a lot fewer ways to do so and a lot less flexibility. I don’t think it’s necessarily Arte insisting on Kole to go that track either - it’d be more about him seeing Cole as the right guy to go over budget for. 

I think there’s a real possibility that the pitching is in such a poor state that Eppler can calculate that it cannot be fixed this offseason with the money/resources he has to spend and, in that situation, the only way the Angels can be a truly competitive team in 2020 is if their offense is again very good and the internal SP options take a next step, and that the finishing touches for the rotation will actually be money/prospects spent either during or after 2020. If that’s Eppler’s calculus, it would not surprise me if they kept Calhoun. Maybe that keeps them from signing Cole, but also maybe not. It likely keeps them from signing two major arms, but if they don’t think that’d make the difference anyway, why bother? They’ll shed a lot of money ahead of the ‘21 season, and they can shop next offseason for pitching as well, all while having a much clearer picture of the 2021-2025 team makeup based off what they assess this year and next with the current crop of kids.

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22 minutes ago, totdprods said:

They can still keep Calhoun and spend on pitching, there are just a lot fewer ways to do so and a lot less flexibility. I don’t think it’s necessarily Arte insisting on Kole to go that track either - it’d be more about him seeing Cole as the right guy to go over budget for. 

I think there’s a real possibility that the pitching is in such a poor state that Eppler can calculate that it cannot be fixed this offseason with the money/resources he has to spend and, in that situation, the only way the Angels can be a truly competitive team in 2020 is if their offense is again very good and the internal SP options take a next step, and that the finishing touches for the rotation will actually be money/prospects spent either during or after 2020. If that’s Eppler’s calculus, it would not surprise me if they kept Calhoun. Maybe that keeps them from signing Cole, but also maybe not. It likely keeps them from signing two major arms, but if they don’t think that’d make the difference anyway, why bother? They’ll shed a lot of money ahead of the ‘21 season, and they can shop next offseason for pitching as well, all while having a much clearer picture of the 2021-2025 team makeup based off what they assess this year and next with the current crop of kids.

I would be shocked if Kole is in an Angels uniform next season. Kole has not been vital to our offense this season. His bombs are the only improvement. In general, he’s had an average season. Kole is ranked 16th overall among RF this season per fWAR, and 20th offensively (per wRC+). And once you get down to that point, most guys below him are part-timers.

At absolute best, he’s worth the $14mil he would cost to retain, but only if we consider the cost in a vacuum. If we assume that Arte still wants to keep the budget under control, the priority is pitching. You said that it doesn’t relate to Calhoun - that’s absurd. He’s going to be overpaid and he’s expendable. The only case you could make that he’s worth keeping is his clubhouse significance. But considering he wouldn’t be around past next season regardless, that won’t be the difference maker. 

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1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

I would be shocked if Kole is in an Angels uniform next season. Kole has not been vital to our offense this season. His bombs are the only improvement. In general, he’s had an average season. Kole is ranked 16th overall among RF this season per fWAR, and 20th offensively (per wRC+). And once you get down to that point, most guys below him are part-timers.

At absolute best, he’s worth the $14mil he would cost to retain, but only if we consider the cost in a vacuum. If we assume that Arte still wants to keep the budget under control, the priority is pitching. You said that it doesn’t relate to Calhoun - that’s absurd. He’s going to be overpaid and he’s expendable. The only case you could make that he’s worth keeping is his clubhouse significance. But considering he wouldn’t be around past next season regardless, that won’t be the difference maker. 

1) Kole’s improved more than just hitting HRs. Sometimes improvement isn’t just an increase in something, but an ability to reverse or negate trends, especially as a player ages. Since his reboot last summer, his BB rate ties a career-high 10.9% after dropping in ‘17, his K rate has held at 24.1% despite his shift closer to a three-true outcome hitter, and his SLG overall jumped up, he has a 10% XBH% since the reboot. 

2) Arte bucked payroll once this year for Cody Allen, and we’re drawing nearer the end of Pujols’ contract (plus Cozart, Simmons, and Calhoun in one way or another) plus Eppler’s built a very cheap core along the way. So, there may be more flexibility on payroll than we’ve seen prior. The priority no doubt will be pitching, but we’ve seen how badly mid-tier FA pitching often blows up, both on the Angels and around the league, so if the Angels are really Gerrit Cole or bust, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m not convinced a second SP ensures a playoff team, nor am I convinced that spending big money on a second, mid-tier arm with Kole’s freed up salary is the best use for that money, short of a repeat of Cahill/Harvey one-year deals, in which case, that could make Calhoun’s option a little more palatable.

3) There’s still other needs. Calhoun is one of the few guys apparently able to hit LH pitching (.801 OPS). Pujols didn’t last year, but he is this year. Ohtani is okay at .753 OPS, but he might see more rest vs. lefties next year as he re-acclimates to pitching. His pitching also opens up 3 days a week at DH, which might be Upton more than Pujols at this point, since Bert’s hot better when playing the field and been steady defensively. Justin Bour has managed 160 PA this year, Calhoun could take those. Albert is likely to see a decrease in 1B/DH time, plus rosters expand to 26. Goodwin has only been good when hitting an unsustainable .400+ BAbip. Calhoun, Bour, and Goodwin this year are taking up three roster spots and $15m. In 2020, Calhoun and Adell is one less roster spot and combined, $14.5m. Keep Goodwin round just in case, and it’s still three roster spots and $15m. Rotate Kole between all three OF and 1B once Adell pushes him out. Ohtani will see a decrease in DH appearances, opening up more ABs there for Upton, which opens up more playing time for Adell/Calhoun. No 4th OF needed with Adell and Calhoun capable of spotting CF, so there’s more ABs there. If Pujols struggles against a particular arm of pitching next year, there’s room for a 1B platoon. If Upton, Trout, Pujols, or Ohtani get hurt, or if Adell struggles, we still have a fairly steady .800 bat ready to pick up ABs, rather than turning to our 4A OF flavor of the month. 

I’m not disagreeing with you at all - everything you’re pointing out is totally reasonable and likely, I just don’t think Calhoun being let go is an absolute...yet. September can change a lot of this. If Thaiss picks it up, it lessens the need of Calhoun at 1B. Same applies to Ward, Walsh, even Rojas. How does La Stella play when he’s back? Do any of the pitchers settle in? If a few of Sandoval, Canning, Pena, Heaney, Suarez, Peters, and Barria start reeling off multiple good starts, spending $14m for a vet pitcher might not be needed. They might want the flexibility in the rotation. Will Adell keep struggling? Will Adell get MLB playing time? Will Marsh make it to AAA? Will the Angels want to give Hermosillo a shot to stick as a stopgap? He’s playing really well lately and has a better defensive set at present, an Eppler priority. Will the new roster quirks allow Angels to stash more waiver claim players on the MLB roster? Will that 40-man crunch keep them from adding Adell? There’s a lot going on this year still.

Edited by totdprods
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2 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Only way they keep Calhoun next season is if they’re punting on pitching and competing for a playoff spot. That or Adell isn’t ready AND Arte spends big. Even in that scenario, though, Arte would basically have to insist they keep Kole. 

The ONLY way I can see Calhoun returning is if he says F it, and comes back for less than the qual offer. If say he REALLY likes it here. Which maybe he does.

But its also his last chance to get paid... so, I doubt it plays out that way. 

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4 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

The ONLY way I can see Calhoun returning is if he says F it, and comes back for less than the qual offer. If say he REALLY likes it here. Which maybe he does.

But its also his last chance to get paid... so, I doubt it plays out that way. 

I'm confused...The Angels have an option next year.  They either pay him $14M or give him $1M to buy him out and he's a free agent.  I don't think the qualifying offer factors in at all, does it?

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1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm confused...The Angels have an option next year.  They either pay him $14M or give him $1M to buy him out and he's a free agent.  I don't think the qualifying offer factors in at all, does it?

I think if they dont exercise the offer, he becomes an unrestricted FA. But I could be wrong.

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24 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Right.  So how does the qualifying offer factor in at all?

Again, I could be wrong, but I dont think there needs to be a qual offer. I think a qual offer is for an already a pending FA, where for Calhoun, the team already has an option. They can exercise it, and Calhoun has to honor it. But if they dont, hes free to sign wherever. 

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42 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Again, I could be wrong, but I dont think there needs to be a qual offer. I think a qual offer is for an already a pending FA, where for Calhoun, the team already has an option. They can exercise it, and Calhoun has to honor it. But if they dont, hes free to sign wherever. 

But you're the one who mentioned the qualifying offer?  That's why I'm confused...

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8 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

But you're the one who mentioned the qualifying offer?  That's why I'm confused...

Sorry, that was my dumbass typing faster than my brain works. What i meant was less that the option is. So if say Calhoun is good with 5 mill vs the 14 mill offer, i can see the angels keeping him. But i doubt he would do that

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1 minute ago, RBM said:

Not for 1 year. 

That doesn’t mean the Angels would value him the same though. He might not get $14m on the open market on one year, but if Adell isn’t ready, the Angels will still have to replace an .800 OPS/GG defense RF if they decline him for their lineup for 2020, and that cost might not be that different. 

And no, I don’t think Goodwin fits the bill. Adell should but his performance the last six weeks is enough to cause some hesitation. 

If I knew the Angels freed up money plus Calhoun’s option being declined would shake loose enough money to revamp the pitching staff into a 2020 contender, I’d feel differently and agree that it’s a no doubter, but I’m not *yet* convinced they’ll hand over RF to Adell on Opening Day, nor count on Goodwin, and even signing two legit arms might not be enough to help the staff. I still think they might try to sign scold, develop the kids arms, and hope to mash to contention for 2020.

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3 minutes ago, RBM said:

Calhoun has never finished with an .800 OPS in his 5 years as a regular. 

He is not coming back. The money will be used on SP’s

He’s at an .800 OPS over his last 838 PA. 

We’ll see if they spend. I think Cole will no doubt be a target but I’m not convinced they’ll clog up the rotation with mid-tier arms of they miss out, or turn to multiple 1-yr deals given how poorly Cahill and Harvey wound up. It’ll be an interesting offseason.

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10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

There is no chance they exercise Kole's option.  He might be back but it would be on a deal for about half the amount at most.  Personally, I think he ends up getting 1/6 or less.  And I think that's a bit unfortunate actually.  

They paid Matsui 1/6 in 2010. He’s not going to take that deal. 

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