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I get being frustrated with it. Yeah, Upton has been bad with runners in scoring position since last year.  But it's like having a heaping pile of shit right on your living room carpet, and compl

Upton is slumping over his last 40 ABs or so.  I’m sure when the season ends he’ll have his normal .820-.900 OPS. He may be slightly overpaid but that’s because that’s how baseball works. Th

But his AVG with RISP is bad over an extremely small sample size so that completely negates everything you just said. Dumbass.

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4 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

He’s not horrible but he’s ain’t worth that contract. Not even close

Yeah I agree I’m worried about him. He rides big hot streaks and big cold streaks. That’s why I don’t want Marsh trades at all. But we also can’t blame so much of the game tonight on him. We scored 7 runs. Offense did their jobs. Just pitching that blows.

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I think part of the problem with Upton is the misperception of him as a star. He isn't a star and hasn't ever really been a star. He's had some star caliber seasons, but he's also had some mediocre ones and the median seems to be around 4 WAR, which is a "good player," but not a star. 

Or to put it another way. He's basically been a full-time player since 2008, making this his 12th season as a regular. During that span, he's had:

Three seasons of roughly all-star production: 2009, 2011, 2017.

Four seasons of being an above average/good regular: 2013-15, 2018.

Three seasons of being an average regular: 2010, 2012, 2016.

Two partial and/or injured seasons: 2008, 2019.

So the median is that of a good player, a 3-4 WAR type. In fact, if you lineup all of those 12 seasons, the median would be 3.25, which is almost exactly average production for a full-time regular, and thus an overall good player. But again, not a star.

There's also the trajectory. Our first experience of Upton was in 2017, during one of his best seasons. That set the tone and after years of suckitude in left field, he was like a savior. Last year he was pretty good, and good enough, but the glamour wore off a bit. This year he's been injured and not good since coming back.

So he's gotten worse over the three seasons of being an Angel, and we have three more years to go after this one. But I do think he'll probably bounce back next year and have a 3+ WAR year, maybe 2-3ish in 2021, and by 2022 could be a part-time player. It won't go down as a bargain but it won't be the worst free agent contract the Angels have signed or taken on over the last decade, maybe not even one of the five worst. 

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Move over Tyler Skaggs, Angels fans have found a new player to misidentify as the problem.   

3 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Upton is currently 33rd on the active war list. He is good. Averaging 3.5 WAR for 10 years is pretty dam good. 

If he simply averages 2.0 War for his Angels career he ends up in the top 40 all time among LFers.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-replacement-level-killers-corner-outfielders/ 

From the article:

"Also, note that I’ve ruled out including the Angels among the left fielders, since the mid-June return of Justin Upton, who had been sidelined for nearly three months by turf toe, has already provided the team a substantial upgrade; even while slumping lately, he’s accounted for 0.3 of the team’s 0.6 WAR in 25 games, a 2.0 WAR pace over 162."

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So the median is that of a good player, a 3-4 WAR type. In fact, if you lineup all of those 12 seasons, the median would be 3.25, which is almost exactly average production for a full-time regular, and thus an overall good player. But again, not a star.

Because keeping that pace for that long is normal right?   I know you're using FG's "rule of thumb" rankings for WAR  but it's kind of ironic you start this by talking about misconceptions even as you go about not seeing the forest for the trees.   Keeping that pace for as long as he has makes him an outlier and significantly more than just "good"   To make that more obvious let's use the very statistic you are using over the course of more than one year samples, which is what FGs uses for their "rule of thumb"

Since 2008  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

That's 10 years of LFers -- he ranks 2nd.

Since 1998 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

Up to 20 years of LFers, we are including some of the steroid era and guys who managed their entire careers -- 11th

Since 1988 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1988&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

Up to 30 years and the entirety of the steroid era -- still 15th overall.

Since 1948 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1988&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

Now we are talking about 70 years...  A period that includes the post war era and baseball's post integration golden eras of the 50s and 60s and STILL the dude ranks 33rd overall...  

But yeah -- misconceptions ...

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Just now, Angel Oracle said:

I wouldn’t call all of 2018 plus one month of 2019 together a small sample size.   If he doesn’t pick it up by 2020, then it’s serious concern about him ever hitting well again with RISP.

.650 RISP OPS since beginning of 2018 is pretty bad.

I would, since over his career he's been good in those situations. It's completely random. 

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