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Angels and Marlins match up well for a trade


Scott34

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The Marlins have a ton of young pitching and need offense. The Angels have a ton of position player prospects and need pitching.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/marlins-open-to-trading-starters.html

I'd love to see Pablo Lopez or Jordan Yamamoto on the Angels. Lopez reminds me of Griffin Canning a little bit, super young but knows how to pitch. I'd definitely consider moving someone like Thaiss for either. 

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18 minutes ago, HaloNArizona said:

I could be crazy....but I would like to hang onto Thaiss.

Yeah, me too of late.

I think some combo of Ward and one of Barria, Sandoval, Madero or JC Ramirez for Gallen would be great. 

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Zac Gallen was the Marlins #19 prospect heading into this season, so it's not like he's one of their top tier prospects, but he had a good year last season and a sensational 2019 before getting promoted last week and hurling 5 solid innings for the Fish.

Check out his AAA stats.

 image.png

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I assume that Caleb Smith (former Skanks prospect) might be the Marlins' most prized starter at the MLB level, excluding Gallen?    

82 Ks/only 20 BBs in 66 innings, a 3.41 ERA, and 1.02 WHIP?    Downside is 13 HRs allowed already.

Still only 27, but is currently on the 10 day DL.

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Come to think of it, the Marlins are really building a fine young rotation. 

Sandy Alacantara 

Caleb Smith

Pablo Lopez

Jordan Yamamoto

Zac Gallen

Trevor Richards

Elieser Hernandez

With their top prospect Sixto Sanchez and the following young arms on the horizon: Jorge Guzman, Nick Neidert, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Jordan Holloway and Braxton Garrett.

@Scott34, good thread dude. These guys are loaded with top SP arms that could be cost controlled for the price of some offensive players in return, which is their weakest link in their entire system and org.

 

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17 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

If done right, maybe a trade negates the need to sign Gerrit Cole?

2020 rotation possibilities?

Canning, Skaggs, Ohtani, Heaney, Smith/Gallen, and Sandoval?    With Pena and Barria plus any possible clean peanuts for depth?   

Oh, I'd still pursue a trade AND Cole. You can never have too many arms. 

 

See: Every Angels & Mets roster since about 2014.

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The Marlins are on a long term plan. Given their pitching friendly stadium, my guess is they will do what the Giants did in 2010-2015, which is hold onto all that pitching, and build a mediocre but timely hitting collection of bats. 

So I have my doubts as to whether the Marlins will trade their young pitching away. Some of it will work out, and some of it won't and need to be moved to the bullpen. 

I think a more likely trade partner would be someone with controllable mid or front of the rotation starters that are undergoing a rebuild of their own. That sort of commodity is rare, so if you find it, you need to pay a high price for it. 

Marcus Stroman, Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke, and Anibal Sanchez are probably their best targets.

Stroman makes all the sense in the world for every contender. So the Angels would be forced top severely overpay. They can do it, but it's not Eppler's MO to deplete the farm. Boyd lacks the track record, but maybe. Turnbull, again, track record. Robbie Ray is a strong bet, but that BB/9 doesn't exactly fit with what Eppler had targeted. But possible I suppose. Greinke fits almost perfectly, except for the contract. Anibal Sanchez, not so much. Too much can go wrong. 

So that narrows it down to Stroman, Ray and Greinke. Stroman had always struggled against the Angels, so I think they'll pass. Ray's struggle with the strike zone doesn't seem like it will work. That narrows it to Greinke. The amount owed will clearly be a hurdle, but will also lower the price significantly. 

The Angels have a ton of money coming off the books after this season, like 50 million. With raises you're looking away 40-ish to spend. If the Angels agree to take on the 2/70 owed, they'd go in knowing that they will be very limited in what they can spend in the offseason, unless they unload money themselves which just isn't something Arizona would be interested in. 

The Arizona farm system is ok, but lacks impact pitching, but appears to have plenty of depth in the outfield. So likely the Angels would need to offset a decent pitching prospect with upside and maybe a 3B. That's it. 

The deal itself would likely be something like Jose Soriano and Taylor Ward. Sucks to give up our top pitching prospect, but the end result would be a rotation headlined by Greinke, Ohtani, Canning. The Angels could probably even get away with trading Andrew Heaney this offseason to help offset the costs.  You could round out the rotation with Skaggs and Suarez, while using Barria, Pena and Sandoval as depth pieces. 

A championship caliber rotation top match a championship caliber team. 

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this is all seems pretty far fetched to me.  If these marlins pitchers we’re talking about are any good why would the Marlins give them up for like Matt Thaiss ? He isn’t very valuable guys.  At least until he shows something at the major league level.  How much value do we think a 1B with questionable power has ?

Even Taylor Ward, who is a guy I like - probably needs to show some success at the major league level before he’d be worth much of anything.  

The bullets the Angels have are like Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez (maybe for a team that wants to dream on him ever getting healthy) or maybe Jordan Adams and Brandon Marsh. 

Chuck said this guy was 19th in the Marlins system.  He’s a pitcher which already makes me hate trading fielders for him.  Why should this be a guy we target ? 

If they want a pitcher they gotta cough up the money and get Zach Greinke.  Better then that, be prepared to spend a shit ton and make us a serious player for Garrett Cole.  And if that doesn’t work go back to Greinke.  Boyd and Stroman aren’t realistic.  We aren’t trading the pieces that would be required for that. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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Great thread - I hadn’t realized the Marlins had built up such pitching depth, because I have a hard time taking effort to look into the Marlins.

I do think the teams match up great on paper, but agree with some of @UndertheHalo and @Second Base‘s takes. We don’t have a young expendable offensive piece that has done enough to pry away an arm - we’d probably have to package up a couple prospects to have a chance and it gets far riskier at that point. 

That said, this is also where a lot of the info we fans don’t have comes into play. If there’s a young Miami pitcher catching Billy’s eye, wouldn’t surprise me if he found a way to swing a deal. 

Edited by totdprods
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Off-topic, but I noticed that near-Angels reliever Austin Brice, who was waived in ST and picked up by the Marlins, has a 2.30 ERA through 24 G/31.1 IP. Oliver Drake has a 3.00 ERA in 15 IP/13 G, with 18 K, for the Rays. 

Neither found their way into success with the Halos, but a couple more examples (to go with Kirby Yates) that even some of the guys Eppler has grabbed and didn't hold onto, still found their way into pitching well. More evidence that, especially for relievers, Eppler has a great track record of finding guys on the cheap who could benefit here.

 

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25 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

With Fletcher making a solid voice for a roster spot and Rengifo starting to solidify himself, it seems like the 3B/2B depth is there to trade for pitching. I'd put Ward and Jones as part of a deal but I wouldn't touch Thaiss. 

I think you're going in the right direction here...Ward would benefit most by going to a team that can drop him into 500-600 PA right away and give him a chance to develop at the bigs, and it might not be easy for the Angels to make that accommodation. 

They'd be selling low on Jones, but they might need to. If he finishes the year poorly (he's hit well the last month), his trade value will be just about zero. Plus, he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, we're tight on the 40-man, and I'm not sure you can leave him unprotected - he isn't too far removed from fringe Top 100. Another name that would be a great fit in Miami? Michael Hermosillo. They're brutally thin in the outfield, and like Ward, Hermosillo isn't likely to reach his ceiling as a part-time player. With Goodwin in the bigs, Parker in AAA, and Adell, possibly Marsh (and don't forget about Lund either) not far, this too might be a good time to make a deal. Also clears up the 40 a bit. Rojas or Walsh could also be lotto-ticket names to discuss.

Still, a package of Ward, Jones, and Hermosillo is a lot of prospect capital to give up for an unproven arm with little MLB experience. Eppler would have to really hit on whoever he brought in, or try to supplement with a vet RP or lower-level Miami prospect to balance things out a bit. All three for one would be a little much. It would be great if the Angels were to bring back a Marlins reliever in the deal - Romo could be a fit. Guerrero and Conley come with some things to like. Jarlin Garcia would give us a legit lefty - and he has an option. Nick Anderson comes with options, as does Quijada. Even the AAA 40-man relievers Kinley, Keller, and Brigham have some positives, and options. Austin Brice, even.

I do think there could/should be something to this though. It's not as apparent as a deal for Boyd, Stroman, Greinke, Bumgarner would be...and that fits well with how Eppler operates. Yankee connection certainly doesn't hurt too.

BTW, Tyler Stevens, the minor-league relief prospect we dealt for Dillon Peters, has a 2.10 ERA across A+/AA in 34.1 IP, only 21 hits allowed, to 8 BB and 39 K. An .085 WHIP.  It's worked out better for the Marlins. Might lead them to be a little more interested and receptive.

Great thread @Scott34 - there's a lot to think about here.

Edited by totdprods
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8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think you're going in the right direction here...Ward would benefit most by going to a team that can drop him into 500-600 PA right away and give him a chance to develop at the bigs, and it might not be easy for the Angels to make that accommodation. 

They'd be selling low on Jones, but they might need to. If he finishes the year poorly (he's hit well the last month), his trade value will be just about zero. Plus, he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, we're tight on the 40-man, and I'm not sure you can leave him unprotected - he isn't too far removed from fringe Top 100. 

Another name that would be a great fit in Miami? Michael Hermosillo. They're brutally thin in the outfield, and like Ward, Hermosillo isn't likely to reach his ceiling as a part-time player. With Goodwin in the bigs, Parker in AAA, and Adell, possibly Marsh (and don't forget about Lund either) not far, this too might be a good time to make a deal. Also clears up the 40 a bit. 

Still, a package of Ward, Jones, and Hermosillo is a lot of prospect capital to give up for an unproven arm with little MLB experience. Eppler would have to really hit on whoever he brought in, or try to supplement with a vet RP or lower-level Miami prospect to balance things out a bit. All three for one would be a little much. 

I do think there could/should be something to this though. It's not as apparent as a deal for Boyd, Stroman, Greinke, Bumgarner would be...and that fits well with how Eppler operates. Yankee connection certainly doesn't hurt too.

Like this strategy a ton! I forgot about Hermosillo. The good news is the outfield is stacked with prospects and even more now that Trout is locked up. Fletcher, Adell, Marsh, Adams, Knowles, Deveaux are all options for the future after Upton/Calhoun. Would even be interesting to see how they work with Adams who's speed is meant for center field. Though I'd love to see him stay. If Adell and Marsh hold their ground then that creates a super talented outfield in terms of speed, arms, and good hitters. Potentially the best outfield in baseball by far. If that does form then we run into an issue with Adams.

Adams has an ETA of 2022 with full time action likely around 2023 (assuming all goes according to plan). That puts Trout at age 31, Adell at 24 and Marsh at 25 during the 2023 season. Adams could easily become a 4th outfielder option which can be crucial when the Angels are deep in the playoffs. Specially just to pinch run with his 80 grade speed. I'm 50/50 on the Angels trading him for pitching at some point, but i'd love for them to keep Adams and find an every day use for him. This, of course, is assuming Adell/Marsh/Adams develop into average/above average major league players. One thing for sure is finally this is a good problem to have.

Tradable pieces for 2019? Ward, Jones, Hermosillo, Parker, Lucroy, Bour.

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I don’t think you risk moving Adams until you see what you’re gonna get with Adell and Marsh at the bigs, unless you have to move him as a centerpiece in a win-now deal that is major impact to the MLB club. Don’t think they need to rush him either.

I still think Knowles is gonna fly up the charts this year. Deveaux looking  promising early too.

Lund is hitting well recently and he also would be a solid 4th OF. Torii Hunter should grow into a decent glove/baserunning-first option still. Spencer Griffin is doing really, really well of late and could be in the 4th OF mix soon too. And I figure Fletcher and Rengifo could see a little more time in the future too, especially if the infield starts getting crowded. Lots of options. Parker and Goodwin too!

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