War with Iran?

[fan_since79]

This is purported to be video of the plane crashing. 

For some reason I can't view Twitter videos on my computer, no matter what browser I use. 

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250

[St1ck]

1 minute ago, fan_since79 said:

Accident? Someone with a quick trigger finger?

Yeah, I'm not buying it unless we hear something from a more reliable source. I just realized who I was replying to, fs79, and now know this is complete nonsense. Like everything else you post.

[UndertheHalo]

5 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Reference some posts either in this thread or one of the others, honestly, Irans military isnt near as good asthey try to appear. An actual war with them would be a repeat of the 91 gulf war. Saddam actually had a much more modern equipped army. 

Yes, an occupation would be a nightmare. And unlike Iraq, we would have very little help from our allies.

The main threat.... 

Again, their army is weak. Their equipment a few generations behind...

But Syria and Iraq have given them experience. And theyd have Russian and Chinese help (to some extent).

I wonder how the Kremlin is leaning? Yes, they want war, in order to gauge us, and test their new capabilities via iran? (Russia has spent a ton developing tech to kill ours, amd even the playing field). Or no, because it would weaken their partner (iran), shift balance back to the saudis (our ally) and perhaps weaken assad?

I think the comparison to Iraq in 91 is misguided.  The Iraqi army was savaged by the decade of war with Iran and truly was a paper tiger.  In addition it was attempting to occupy Kuwait.  Which is entirely different from what would be going on with Iran.  Most of the casualties we inflicted were when they were attempting to retreat.  See highway of death.  
 

the Iranians main strength is in their ability to rain missiles and cause problems in the Persian gulf.  They do have effective missles.  More advanced then what we’ve seen today.  They aren’t going to fight a conventional war.  And while I do doubt how long they could defend their skies, they do have fairly advanced Russian anti air defenses that would be problematic.  Again, I don’t know how long they could keep it up.  But its also unclear what all they have.  They for sure have Russian  S-300 batteries which they’ve apparently successfully produced domestically.  They claim to have improved them.  But that obviously can’t be clear.  In any case.  That equipment is modern and legitimate.   I think the best example to look at is Hezbollah dust ups with Israel.  Which was basically fought to a stalemate.  Hezbollah was able to successfully jam up the Israelis.  I doubt they showed all of their cards via Hezbollah. 
 

the bottom line is that direct war with Iran is a horrifying prospect that should be opposed wholly.  It would result in whole sale slaughter.  And it could easily spiral out of control.  This brinksmanship is insanity.  
 

my sincere hope is that the strike tonight presents an opportunity for “both sides” to take an off ramp from this madness.  I think that possibility is very much there.  On the other hand, like our beautiful orange boi Iran is unpredictable and this may not be the end of it.  They could strike months from now.  They’ve demonstrated that before.  Good examples being the attack in Argentina on the Israeli embassy.  They also attacked Israeli diplomats in india and I think Thailand (sorry if I’m wrong on the specifics of this I’d have to go look it up again, anyway it was reprisal for the Israeli assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist)  Anyway, who knows.  It would be really great if this was the end of it. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by UndertheHalo

[failos]

2 hours ago, st1ckboy said:

Why would they shoot down a Ukrainian airline?

Infidels

[failos]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

This is purported to be video of the plane crashing. 

For some reason I can't view Twitter videos on my computer, no matter what browser I use. 

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250

looks like it was shot down

[arch stanton]

It's definitely on fire but lots of things besides missiles can cause planes to burn

[UndertheHalo]

It would seem to me that if it was hit by a missile  there would be lots of flaming debris.  This does not look like that.  I guess it’s too early to really rule anything out though.  

[Jason]

3 hours ago, arch stanton said:

It's definitely on fire but lots of things besides missiles can cause planes to burn

The plane was made by Boeing right?

[Jason]

agreed 

[Lhalo]

Soleimani for a couple holes in the sand is a great deal. I doubt Iran messes with the US embassy for a while. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think the comparison to Iraq in 91 is misguided.  The Iraqi army was savaged by the decade of war with Iran and truly was a paper tiger.  In addition it was attempting to occupy Kuwait.  Which is entirely different from what would be going on with Iran.  Most of the casualties we inflicted were when they were attempting to retreat.  See highway of death.  
 

the Iranians main strength is in their ability to rain missiles and cause problems in the Persian gulf.  They do have effective missles.  More advanced then what we’ve seen today.  They aren’t going to fight a conventional war.  And while I do doubt how long they could defend their skies, they do have fairly advanced Russian anti air defenses that would be problematic.  Again, I don’t know how long they could keep it up.  But its also unclear what all they have.  They for sure have Russian  S-300 batteries which they’ve apparently successfully produced domestically.  They claim to have improved them.  But that obviously can’t be clear.  In any case.  That equipment is modern and legitimate.    
 

 

Few counterpoints.

Iraq was touted as the 4th largest army in the world in 1991. Whereas yes, it had been bloodied in its war with Iran, it was still equipped with mostly the best money could buy at that point from the Soviets and French. And by day 3 they refused to fly anymore. And after a month of not being able to defend its skies, its army folded in about 48 hours. And this was after people had predicted 100s of thousands of casualties for coalition troops.

Iran on the other hand, has an air force and army whos best equipment was sold them, pre sanctions, by us.. So not only is it old, and tech generations past, but because of embargos, it hasnt been upgraded by the actual engineers of the manufacturers. More or less done redneck style to keep it working. Essentially think of a car from the 70s, upgraded with aftermarket parts, some of which youve made in your garage.

Their air force is so outdated compared to modern armies that they not only had to lie about a mockup plane (that experts could tell was fake on the ground, based on its shape and dimensions), but then they got caught with super elementary photoshop skills, trying to pretend it could fly.

Its not that their Army couldnt hurt us, or that they arent capable. Its just that they arent close to being on our level. Again, their army is (thanks to sanctions) stuck in the 70/80s. Their equipment being vintage of what Saddam had in 91. That was completely lopsided, and weve only gone up from there. They havent.

Syria has given them combat experience for sure. But that is basically with the benefit of Assads army (on par with their own) and Russian air power. Without those two factors, and against a modern army vs militia equipped with somewhat modern weapons, meh.... more than likely a whole new learning curve for them.

7 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

the bottom line is that direct war with Iran is a horrifying prospect that should be opposed wholly.  It would result in whole sale slaughter.  And it could easily spiral out of control.  This brinksmanship is insanity.  

Agree fully. Whereas I say a "war" with Iran would lopsided, once the Army was beaten, wed be stuck in an endless bloodbath for control like we were in the 2000s. And for no gain that matters. 

I doubt it escalates from here. I think that rocket attack was merely face saving on their end. I think they know their guy who was droned was a legitimate target (uniformed soldier in a combat zone). And I think they know they have more to lose. (Not just in terms of combat losses and infrastructure, but they have a real problem on their hands already, domestically.)

Hopefully 2 weeks from now everyone is trending about 2 weeks from now news, and this is all a distant (2 weeks being eternity in this age) memory.

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 hours ago, arch stanton said:

It's definitely on fire but lots of things besides missiles can cause planes to burn

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Lhalo said:

Soleimani for a couple holes in the sand is a great deal. I doubt Iran messes with the US embassy for a while. 

The problem, though, is whether its proxys agree. 

"Sometimes our children behave badly".

[ten ocho recon scout]

9 hours ago, st1ckboy said:

Why would they shoot down a Ukrainian airline?

I dont believe this for a second, but my first thought when hearing it was something to do with Russia. 

Again, I couldnt make a connection if you paid me to. But its the only (stupid) connect i can think of.

[arch stanton]

My first thoughts on plane crashes are always crew error, be that ground or air crew

[Blarg]

Or just poor maintenance.

[fan_since79]

President Trump will address the nation this morning at 8 a.m our time regarding the situation.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

52 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

President Trump will address the nation this morning at 8 a.m our time regarding the situation.

 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

10 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

This is purported to be video of the plane crashing. 

For some reason I can't view Twitter videos on my computer, no matter what browser I use. 

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250

Man, I know this is secondary (i guess) to the thread topic, but thats sad. Plane looks intact... so I assume the people onboard are alive still.... knowing whats coming.

And the tragedy of it all is going to be forgotten by the other events.

Sad. 

[gotbeer]

A Ukrainian plane, from Iran.  After Iran fires missles at a US Base, and during an impeachment centered on Ukraine.  

Sure sounds like a bunch of coincidences or even a message sent, CIA style.  It's even approaching being Clintoned.

[Lou]

Are we winning?

[Adam]

6 hours ago, Jason said:

agreed 

surprising response from him. also agree. hopefully...

[Tank]

2 hours ago, arch stanton said:

My first thoughts on plane crashes are always crew error, be that ground or air crew

like someone taking a dump by the engine exhaust?

[Tank]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Iraq was touted as the 4th largest army in the world in 1991. Whereas yes, it had been bloodied in its war with Iran, it was still equipped with mostly the best money could buy at that point from the Soviets and French. And by day 3 they refused to fly anymore. And after a month of not being able to defend its skies, its army folded in about 48 hours. And this was after people had predicted 100s of thousands of casualties for coalition troops.

Iran on the other hand, has an air force and army whos best equipment was sold them, pre sanctions, by us.. So not only is it old, and tech generations past, but because of embargos, it hasnt been upgraded by the actual engineers of the manufacturers. More or less done redneck style to keep it working. Essentially think of a car from the 70s, upgraded with aftermarket parts, some of which youve made in your garage.

Their air force is so outdated compared to modern armies that they not only had to lie about a mockup plane (that experts could tell was fake on the ground, based on its shape and dimensions), but then they got caught with super elementary photoshop skills, trying to pretend it could fly.

Its not that their Army couldnt hurt us, or that they arent capable. Its just that they arent close to being on our level. Again, their army is (thanks to sanctions) stuck in the 70/80s. Their equipment being vintage of what Saddam had in 91. That was completely lopsided, and weve only gone up from there. They havent.

Syria has given them combat experience for sure. But that is basically with the benefit of Assads army (on par with their own) and Russian air power. Without those two factors, and against a modern army vs militia equipped with somewhat modern weapons, meh.... more than likely a whole new learning curve for them.

as jay leno said during the gulf war, "free, one thousand republican guard rifles, only dropped once."

[St1ck]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

like someone taking a dump by the engine exhaust?

They probably forgot to check the ball bearings.