War with Iran?

[Make Angels Great Again]

2 hours ago, Lou said:

We should just spray them with booze  carpet bomb them with pulled pork.

 

[Tank]

5 hours ago, Lou said:

We should just spray them with booze 

And drop bacon on all of their houses and businesses.

[Tank]

You suck, MAGA.

[AngelsLakersFan]

23 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Something a lot of people don't understand is how strong Iran is, militarily. No, they can't go 1v1 against the US, but think about how much trouble a bunch of farmers in Vietnam gave the US military. Same thing happened in Afghanistan. Now imagine those countries with a legitimate military behind them and an incredible martyrdom complex.

Yeah, it would be ugly.

 

22 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

The Iranian military is perhaps the most capable military force on earth in terms of asymmetric warfare.  They understand that they can’t fight us in conventional manner. And there is ample evidence that this approach would be extremely difficult for any country to deal with.  Ask the Israelis.  Ask the American troops that fought the Shiite militias.   And one has to assume that the Iranians have not shown all of their cards in those proxy conflicts.  

The amount of potential blood shed is astronomical.  And for what ? This is all madness.  This insane brinkmanship has to stop. 

I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but it hasn't been all that long since the Iranian people were rioting in the streets trying to topple their government, and while they are a muslim nation their people are among the most modern/western in the middle east. These aren't backwards cave dwellers like in Afghanistan or the multiple groups of stupid fucks that all hate each other yet were held together through fear like in Iraq. They have a lot more to lose, as we can see from the effect the sanctions have been having on them.

[UndertheHalo]

26 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but it hasn't been all that long since the Iranian people were rioting in the streets trying to topple their government, and while they are a muslim nation their people are among the most modern/western in the middle east. These aren't backwards cave dwellers like in Afghanistan or the multiple groups of stupid fucks that all hate each other yet were held together through fear like in Iraq. They have a lot more to lose, as we can see from the effect the sanctions have been having on them.

While I agree that the Iranian people are modern I disagree that the country will turn on the clerics if only enough pressure is exerted. Iran is a highly nationalistic nation.  The population has endured much since the revolution, the devastating war with Iraq is still in the memories of a good portion of the population.  And really, the memory of the shah is still well remembered.  They blame his return (correctly) o the United States. And frankly, I can’t think of a more potent unifier for them then an American attack.  The Iranian government has successfully directed the public’s ire from their economic difficulties on the west and in particular on the United States.  

There is some degree of opposition to the Islamic theocracy, but there is also substantial support even if some of them want reform.  They aren’t rolling the welcome mats out and I think the thing to expect is extremely substantial resistance. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[UndertheHalo]

And when I say they’re modern I mean that they are aware of the world outside of Iran.  They have internet access they see foreign press.  They aren’t like North Koreans. 

[tdawg87]

36 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

 

I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but it hasn't been all that long since the Iranian people were rioting in the streets trying to topple their government, and while they are a muslim nation their people are among the most modern/western in the middle east. These aren't backwards cave dwellers like in Afghanistan or the multiple groups of stupid fucks that all hate each other yet were held together through fear like in Iraq. They have a lot more to lose, as we can see from the effect the sanctions have been having on them.

See I agree with this, mostly. And that's exactly what makes a potential war with Iran so dangerous.

They aren't "backwards cave dwellers" like Afghanistan, yet they have the same terrain and landscape which they would absolutely use to their advantage. 

It's difficult enough calling in air strikes to a bunch of rocks, but imagine having a trained military with backing from Russia waiting for you when those air strikes are over.

People just think this would be another Gulf War where the US just waltzes in and obliterates a bunch of outdated weaponry and military "forces" when that's far from what would happen. The US would win...at the cost of millions of lives. Including Americans. It would also be another war we'd be in for well over a decade.

Whether you support Trump or not is irrelevant. A war with Iran would be awful for Iran, the United States, and the world.

[AngelsLakersFan]

13 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

And when I say they’re modern I mean that they are aware of the world outside of Iran.  They have internet access they see foreign press.  They aren’t like North Koreans. 

Back when I played video games more regularly I used to play with a handful or Iranians. Obviously they don't speak for everyone but they portrayed their people as being caught up between two groups plying for power (the Iranian and US governments). I don't think the Iranian government represents the wants, desires and opinions of the people and in general I think our interest in Iran has more to do with preventing the rise of a geo-political power in the region that isn't beholden to the US.

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

See I agree with this, mostly. And that's exactly what makes a potential war with Iran so dangerous.

They aren't "backwards cave dwellers" like Afghanistan, yet they have the same terrain and landscape which they would absolutely use to their advantage. 

It's difficult enough calling in air strikes to a bunch of rocks, but imagine having a trained military with backing from Russia waiting for you when those air strikes are over.

People just think this would be another Gulf War where the US just waltzes in and obliterates a bunch of outdated weaponry and military "forces" when that's far from what would happen. The US would win...at the cost of millions of lives. Including Americans. It would also be another war we'd be in for well over a decade.

Whether you support Trump or not is irrelevant. A war with Iran would be awful for Iran, the United States, and the world.

I could not imagine all out war with Iran, and I'd like to think our government feels the same. This is what I find scary though. There is plenty of reason to believe that regime change is possible and optimal for both the people of Iran and our interests in the middle east, while also being possible without a full scale invasion. Pursuing that outcome comes with an insanely high risk of everything you say.

[UndertheHalo]

There’s no winning any war with Iran. Military force is a means to a political end.  The US cannot impose regime change on Iran.  That will come when the Iranians decide they want it. 

I mean look at Syria.  Even with all of the substantial opposition to the Syrian regime.  In the end they just couldn’t do it.  And I know you’re going to point to the Russians and it is true that they were vital to the survival of Assad’s government.  But the various opposition groups also had powerful backers.  Honestly, when was the last time a popular revolution succeeded against a powerful central government in any meaningful way ? Maybe Romania ? The Shah ? I think it’s tough to say that Iranian government is that unpopular in Iran.  States in the 21st century are extremely powerful and very difficult to dislodge.

Irans government is far more capable of destroying any insurrection.  As @AngelsLakersFan fan noted they had significant protests.  They were stomped out mercilessly.  Moreover, how do we know there would be some monolithic resistance? It seems unlikely and not near.  

Honestly probably the most effective way to destabilize the Iranian regime is to take away the American boogeyman.  If they couldn’t blame us for everything the Iranian public’s frustration with the theocracy might eventually threaten it.  

Edited June 23, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Rico]

[Blarg]

Any shots fired yet?

[fan_since79]

Trump has warned Iran that war would result in "obliteration like you've never seen before."

Isn't obliteration always total by its very nature?

 

 

[Lou]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

Trump has warned Iran that war would result in "obliteration like you've never seen before."

Isn't obliteration always total by its very nature?

 

 

Per your quote, he didn't say total 

[fan_since79]

11 minutes ago, Lou said:

Per your quote, he didn't say total 

Obliteration means total destruction.

"to remove from existence", "to destroy utterly" etc

I suppose we've never seen total nuclear destruction of an area as large as Iran, but I sincerely hope that's not what he has in mind. God forbid.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Obliteration means total destruction.

"to remove from existence", "to destroy utterly" etc

I suppose we've never seen total nuclear destruction of an area as large as Iran, but I sincerely hope that's not what he has in mind. God forbid.

That would make for some great tv. 

Count me in. 

[Jason]

[Adam]

[Lhalo]

It seems that Trump is pressing back against hawks like Bolton which is a good thing.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/449902-trump-bolton-would-take-on-the-whole-world-at-one-time

[gotbeer]

6 hours ago, Lhalo said:

It seems that Trump is pressing back against hawks like Bolton which is a good thing.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/449902-trump-bolton-would-take-on-the-whole-world-at-one-time

I picture the meeting going something like this.

 

[Rico]

Trump hired that guy knowing full well what he is about. 

[Lhalo]

3 minutes ago, Rico said:

Trump hired that guy knowing full well what he is about. 

Most likely to appease the neocon voting base.

[Taylor]

8 hours ago, Adam said:

My Mitsubishi needs some freedom.

[Jason]

2 hours ago, Rico said:

Trump hired that guy knowing full well what he is about. 

 

2 hours ago, Lhalo said:

Most likely to appease the neocon voting base.

You're both right

[fan_since79]

Iran has seized a British oil tanker and has imprisoned the crew.

CNN is also reporting a second tanker (Liberian) has been seized as well.

This thing is ramping up.