If you need something to perk you up (in Schadenfreude News)

[Lhalo]

 

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Lhalo said:

 

[m0nkey]

He'll end up at about 4.5 fWAR.  Not bad for a failing player

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

He'll end up at about 4.5 fWAR.  Not bad for a failing player

You're arguing he's better than some make it out to be and for the most part I agree he catches too much shit... 

But, we are in fact talking about a guy who put up a 9.3 fWAR, in 2015, and 4.8 in 2017 -- so, his 4.5 this year would pretty much fit the criteria of a player who's stock is falling even if it's not really significant.   4.5 is no joke, but as a 300 million dollar man it's a bit underwhelming.   I mean, Justin Upton put up a 5.2 fWAR two years ago.

Harper and every other FA that inks that sort of deal will end up being overly scrutinized..   Soon as Trout has an off season you'll see people talking about his imminent decline, too.

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're arguing he's better than some make it out to be and for the most part I agree he catches too much shit... 

But, we are in fact talking about a guy who put up a 9.3 fWAR, in 2015, and 4.8 in 2017 -- so, his 4.5 this year would pretty much fit the criteria of a player who's stock is falling even if it's not really significant.   4.5 is no joke, but as a 300 million dollar man it's a bit underwhelming.   I mean, Justin Upton put up a 5.2 fWAR two years ago.

Harper and every other FA that inks that sort of deal will end up being overly scrutinized..   Soon as Trout has an off season you'll see people talking about his imminent decline, too.

Mainly posted to point out he’s not been a disaster as the public perception was to begin (and even throughout) the year. 

 

I’m not smart enough to dig into the numbers and see whether or not the underlying numbers support his WAR or if he’s been lucky, but the results are the same. 

[Angelsjunky]

Bryce Harper is a very good player, but he's not the superstar that his reputation says he is. Maybe he's underrated by a few, but he's overrated by more.

His last two seasons have been quite similar:

2018: .249/.393/.496, 34 HR, 134 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR

2019: .256/.373/.502, 33 HR, 124 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR

The 1 WAR different is due to a major swing in his defense, which tends to fluctuate year to year. 

I think it is safe to say that Harper's baseline range is 4-5 WAR per year, which makes him a borderline star. 

That said, he has that potential to go ballistic and have a 7+ WAR season, but its also worth remembering that he's only surpassed 4.8 once in his eight seasons.

Or to put it another way, seven of his eight seasons are worse that Trout's lowest fWAR season, 6.8 in 2017...in 114 games. 

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Mainly posted to point out he’s not been a disaster as the public perception was to begin (and even throughout) the year. 

 

I’m not smart enough to dig into the numbers and see whether or not the underlying numbers support his WAR or if he’s been lucky, but the results are the same. 

There isn't a luck factor really to WAR, other than it can be wildly influenced by defensive metrics that are at this time still a tad murky.  So the figure is what it is and there is no need to defend or explain the numbers.

When push comes to shove the deal with Harper is just that his performance has (outside of one season), failed to live up to the hype surrounding him.  As AJ pointed out he's exceeded 4.8 fWAR only once, again using Upton as an example he's actually done it three times despite never having put up a monster season.   Andrelton Simmons has done it twice as an Angel.  Paul Goldschmidt has done it 5 times.  The much maligned AP did it 10 times in a row.   Other than AP, none of those players ever really stood out as a superstar and Harper has more in line with them than the typical superstar.

Again, as AJ points out -- the guy has it in him to go apeshit in any year and have another 9.0+ fWAR season but at this point 2015 is looking like an outlier.   To be fair, I feel bad for Harper -- he's had these labels put on him at a ridiculously early age and while it does at times seem like he has a super size persona, nobody has ever question his dedication or day in day out effort.    

For Angel fans there likely will always be some smack thrown his way because of the many comparisons made to Trout as they both came up.   He's the human embodiment of their "Dodger Butthurt"

 

[Stradling]

He’s this years Kole Calhoun with more walks. 

[Docwaukee]

Pujols had 4.8 WAR in his first year as a halo.  

[Angel Oracle]

The other $300 million man, Manny Machado, has put up a whopping 2.9 WAR entering the last week of the season.    Two of the past three years have yielded 3.5 and 2.9 WARs, with a 5.7 sandwiched in between.

[Blarg]

First warning sign for the Padres was that Machado would accept their offer to play for the Padres. 

[Dick B Back]

I’m old but I think its funny that a guy that gets 300 mil can’t hit .260.

That is all.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Its crazy that harper and machado were poster boys for super free agentd, and neither have produced worthy the hype.

Crazy in terms that neither is "bad", both are still very good. Still young, etc etc. But nowhere near what names like that were even 10 years ago. 

[Blarg]

That is the point, they never were Superstars except for one outlier season. And yet GMs still bid on them like they were just a notch below Mike Trout in talent. It was a fools parade and in the midst of this was MLB pimping these guys and saying they were definitely worth $300 million plus. In the end 28 teams made the right decision to not spend "stupid money." 

[m0nkey]

Any updates?

[eligrba]

My craving for cheese has not subsided.

[m0nkey]

On 8/6/2021 at 11:54 PM, m0nkey said:

Any updates?

At the risk of getting Lou'd later this season, Bryce Harper is 5th in WRC+ (159, second best in his career so far), 15th in position player WAR (3.8), and the Phillies are somehow in first place despite that bullpen

[m0nkey]

On 8/6/2021 at 11:54 PM, m0nkey said:

Any updates?

 

[RallyMo]

18 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

 

This perks @Angelsjunky up.

[Lazorko Saves]

On 8/9/2021 at 9:16 AM, m0nkey said:

At the risk of getting Lou'd later this season

Dude, we're all gonna get Lou'd sooner or later, justified or not...

[m0nkey]

Checking in for a 2022 update

[m0nkey]

On 5/27/2019 at 4:57 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Guess which "superstar" is hitting .227/.355/.438 and is currently 56th in the majors in fWAR at 1.3?

 

 

On 5/27/2019 at 5:10 PM, Inside Pitch said:

Leads the majors in Ks, and struggling to catch up to FBs (39 Ks off FBs), still only 26.... Only 12 more years.....  Doesn't matter.  He will hit one 475 feet this week and ESPN will fawn all over him .... again.

 

On 5/28/2019 at 12:16 PM, eligrba said:

He is responding to watching himself on the stadium big screen.

13 years married to this.......enjoy Philly, you earned it

 

On 5/28/2019 at 12:40 PM, Lou said:

everyone loves a train wreck 

 

He's not showing much fire and fight right now. 

 

On 5/28/2019 at 2:35 PM, Docwaukee said:

why isn't Bryce Harper news and of interest to any baseball fan?  

the guy is in the first year of a 13 year deal and already failing.  

 

Philly still regretting this train wreck of a contract

[m0nkey]

On 5/28/2019 at 4:29 PM, unsubscribe said:

Bellinger and Yelich are currently the best hitters in baseball. Trout is the best overall player.

Damn not even 3 years later these guys go from MVPs to league average players (if that)

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Damn not even 3 years later these guys go from MVPs to league average players (if that)

LA Times is even suggesting that the Dodgers might non-tender Bellinger this off-season. 

[Stradling]

11 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

LA Times is even suggesting that the Dodgers might non-tender Bellinger this off-season. 

I expect that to happen. I also would consider signing him to a one year prove it contract. I think if we spend this year it’ll be more in line with all the one year deals we’ve done in the past. So a Bellinger or Conforto type for LF.