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gotbeer

The Official 2019-2020 Anaheim Ducks Thread

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Close out 2018-2019.  

We still have the two boat anchors in Perry (10 pts, 31 games, -16) and Kesler (8 pts, 60 games, -19).  Hopefully Kesler can figure out what is wrong with him.  Then there is Eaves with whatever disease he came down with.  And in case you were wondering, that is $17.575 million out of a current cap of $79.5 million.  22% dead money.

Also of note.  Record of the Ducks with Carlyle.  21-26-9.  51 pts, or 75 point pace.  Record with no coach.  14-9-1.  29 pts  So it doesn't look all dim.  That's actually a 100 point season pace.  

So with a little, ok a lot of luck on Tuesday, this team should hopefully be competitive next season.  Regardless of how the pingpong balls fall.  

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Looks like we finished 8th from the bottom according to Tankathon.  So I think that means the worse our pick can be is 11th.  

On the bright side, St. Louis finished 20th.  

Now ping pong balls, drop in our favor.

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Here our our odds in the draft.

  • 1st 6.0
  • 2nd 6.3
  • 3rd 6.7
    • 19% chance in the top 3
  • 8th 36.8
  • 9th 36.0
  • 10th 7.8
  • 11th 100%, just kidding 0.4% but you know the NHL will screw us.

 

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At 8th, I'm seeing Alex Turcotte's name pop up in mock drafts, and at 9th seeing Trevor Zegras pop up.  Both are committed to play in college next season.  Looking at Elite Prospects write up, not much on Turcott.  But Zegras seems like an ideal Duck Candidate.  

Quote

He knows how to get under the skin of opponents and will actively seek out opportunities to lay the body and create separation, all the while staying attentive to the unfolding play.

 

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On 4/6/2019 at 5:09 AM, gotbeer said:

Close out 2018-2019.  

We still have the two boat anchors in Perry (10 pts, 31 games, -16) and Kesler (8 pts, 60 games, -19). 

wow, is that all they really scored this season? oh my. looks like the ducks versions of bour and cozart.

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Trevor Zegras is what Tankathon has us taking in a mock draft.  He's the 5th ranked center.  

Interesting write up on Zegras.  

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/nhl-draft-big-board-latest-rankings-top-31-prospects-2019-class/1v5mihkwhsvvf1q4d1tyovhz98

Quote

As dynamic a player as Hughes may be, one cannot overlook the fact that he has had the benefit of playing alongside two potential top-five picks in Trevor Zegrasand Alex Turcotte. Both are natural centers who are sturdy on their skates and can do remarkable things with the puck, and Zegras has spent most of the season on Hughes’ left flank.

Turcotte is a bit more responsible defensively, but Zegras has jaw-dropping vision and playmaking ability similar to Barzal, or even Hughes himself. While Hughes was out with an ankle injury in February, Zegras led the Five Nations Tournament in scoring as Team USA’s top center. The debate between whether Turcotte or Zegras is the better prospect has been going on for quite some time and may continue right up to draft day. For now, we’ll give the Boston University-bound Zegras the slightest of edges because of his Hughes-esque dynamism.

 

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Ok, post lottery draw discussion.

If Kesler is done.  Like hip replacement, retire from the NHL.  Should the Ducks trade the #20 pick to say Ottawa to get rid of Kesler's cap hit?  That would save the Ducks $6.875 million in cap over the next 3 years.  If you buy out Perry, that would save an additional $6 million in cap next season (season after that is the big cap hit, savings only $2 million).  (even better would be if you can package Perry and Kesler to Ottawa for the #20 pick, but that might be asking too much.  Although Senators might be so mismanaged and desperate that they might do it.  Thinking about it more, they actually might do it.  If they trade and release.  That would mean a cap hit of $5.050, $9.050, $4.425, $4.225, $2.225, $2.225.  If the Ducks say contributed $2 million for the next 2 years, the cap hit is $3.050, $7.050, $4.425, $4.225, $2.225, $2.225.  But then again, if they didn't buy out Kesler and waited till day 1, and LTIR him.  They probably will have the room the next 3 years to do it.  Then the buyout cap hit is $2.625, $6.625, $2, $2., and if the Ducks contribute $2 million for the first 2 years, then the net cost to the Senators would be $9.25 million for the #20 pick.  For the Ducks though, that means a cap savings of $13.5 million the next 2 seasons and $6.875 the following 2 seasons.)

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1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

Ok, post lottery draw discussion.

If Kesler is done.  Like hip replacement, retire from the NHL.  Should the Ducks trade the #20 pick to say Ottawa to get rid of Kesler's cap hit?  That would save the Ducks $6.875 million in cap over the next 3 years.  

That seems drastic. I know putting a player on the LTIR(etirement) isn't the equivalent of wiping the contract out completely, but shouldn't it give the team enough flexibility to work around it?

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19 minutes ago, Thomas said:

That seems drastic. I know putting a player on the LTIR(etirement) isn't the equivalent of wiping the contract out completely, but shouldn't it give the team enough flexibility to work around it?

Nope.  Not really.  LTIR is only applicable during the season.  So until the team plays a game, they can't put the player on LTIR.  Insurance and all that pays for it I believe in the NHL.  Not sure if it's optional or mandatory for teams, but everywhere I've read they talk about insurance covering it.  As opposed to baseball, where insurance is optional.  

But what I'm getting at, is in the cap world.  In the offseason, when all the moves are made to make teams better, Keslers cap hit, regardless of LTIRetired, would count.  So for a team like the Ducks that are only a few million below the current cap, that's a really really big deal.  And not really a work around flexible deal.  

The reason why I was targetting Ottawa, is that their situation is a total rebuild.  Right now, they have $34 million in cap space for next year.  And you know they aren't going to sign anyone of significance.  That's why the Kesler and Perry to them might work.  

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I get why it's beneficial to get rid of the contract. A first just seems a steep price to pay when desperate to acquire cost-controlled talent.

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2 hours ago, Thomas said:

I get why it's beneficial to get rid of the contract. A first just seems a steep price to pay when desperate to acquire cost-controlled talent.

I think it's steep.  But I think that's the price you have to pay.  Now I'm hoping that if they do something like this, they are also going to acquire a significant talent in FA'cy.  In the likes of Panarin or Karlsson.  Because I really don't think the Ducks are far off from returning to the playoffs and hopefully making some noise.  Just the record pre Carlyle when he really fucked up the team.  To post Carlyle when players were given more free reign and just direction is a positive sign.  

I'm also hoping that Eakin has more say in personnel and limits Murray's dumpster diving for personnel this offseason.  Go young and let them sink or swim.  A lot of them had good tastes in the NHL this season, and they didn't look all that bad.

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I think, with Columbus rolling over the Lightning.  That St. Louis pick drops to 19th if they lose their series.  

But, if Vegas wins their series like it's almost certainly going to do.  Winnipeg and St Louis would be a wash I believe (no matter who wins/loses, San Jose drops a pick).  And depending on what the Leafs do in their series.  I think that means the San Jose pick would be either 21 or 22.  

Of course if the Avalanche can do an upset.  I think that drops the San Jose pick another slot.  

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, deepdrive said:

I thought a team had to make it to the conference finals to change their draft order (two playoff wins).

I think you might be right.  Looking at a wiki page.

Quote
  1. The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs the previous season (picks 1–15)
  2. The teams that made the playoffs in the previous season but did not win either their division in the regular season or play in the Conference Finals (picks 16–23 up to 27)
  3. The teams that won their divisions in the previous season but did not play in the Conference Finals (potentially picks 24–27)
  4. The teams that lose in Conference Finals (picks 28 and 29)
  5. The team that was the runner-up in the Stanley Cup Finals (pick 30)
  6. The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 31)

So I think the finish order looks like this according to Tankathon.  With Tampa Bay moving up to 26 ATM, since they won their division.

  • 16-23.  Pittsburgh
  • 17-31.  Tampa Bay
  • 16.  Colorado
  • 17.  Vegas
  • 18.  Dallas
  • 19.  Columbus
  • 20.  St Louis
  • 21.  Carolina
  • 22.  Winnipeg
  • 24.  Toronto
  • 25.  San Jose
  • 26. Islanders
  • 27. Bruins
  • 28. Predators
  • 29. Washington
  • 30.  Calgary

Bold is those that won their Division.  Crossed out did not make it to the Conference Finals  

                 
                   
                   
               
Edited by gotbeer

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So, basically our chance at 20 is now very slim. Since,  the four teams ahead of us are playing well and one will probably go to the conference finals.

But, if a couple of them go on, San Jose's pick would move up to 23. So, that lessens the blow a little.

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1 hour ago, deepdrive said:

So, basically our chance at 20 is now very slim. Since,  the four teams ahead of us are playing well and one will probably go to the conference finals.

But, if a couple of them go on, San Jose's pick would move up to 23. So, that lessens the blow a little.

Yeah, pretty much.  I still think we trade the 23 pick to Ottawa to take on Kesler and Perry's contracts though.  

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Posted (edited)

And another Division winner goes down in Flames.  

  • 16-23.  Pittsburgh
  • 17-30.  Calgary
  • 18-31.  Tampa Bay
  • 16.  Colorado
  • 17.  Vegas
  • 18.  Dallas
  • 19.  Columbus
  • 20.  St Louis
  • 21.  Carolina
  • 22.  Winnipeg
  • 24.  Toronto
  • 25.  San Jose
  • 26. Islanders
  • 27. Bruins
  • 28. Predators
  • 29. Washington

Bold is those that won their Division.  Crossed out did not make it to the Conference Finals  

           
Edited by gotbeer

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Posted (edited)

And another upset.  Not sure how this helps the Ducks though.  Although St Louis lasting longer might help the overall position.  I think bigger will be if Boston and the Predators get knocked out.  That would mean then 2 teams minimum making the conference finals that didn't win their division.  

  • 16-22.  Winnipeg
  • 17-23.  Pittsburgh
  • 16.  Colorado
  • 17.  Vegas
  • 18.  Dallas
  • 19.  Columbus
  • 20.  St Louis
  • 21.  Carolina
  • 24.  Toronto
  • 25.  San Jose
  • 26. Islanders
  • 27. Bruins
  • 26-30.  Calgary
  • 27-31.  Tampa Bay
  • 28. Predators
  • 29. Washington

Bold is those that won their Division.  Crossed out did not make it to the Conference Finals. 

Edit:  Just realized the Islanders and  Bruins didn't win their Division.  

           
Edited by gotbeer

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Looking at it more.  If the Bruins and Predators get eliminated.  That means 3 teams that didn't win their division will play in the conference finals, at minimum.  With the Capitals and the Islanders squaring off.  That means the San Jose pick would fall to 22.  I think the St. Louis pick will either be in the teens or conference finals level.  So that pick looks to be out.

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Crazy trade #537.  Would you?

To Ottawa

  • Kesler (LTIR cap hit)
  • Perry (purspose of being bought out)
  • #9 overall pick

To Ducks

  • Columbus' first round pick
  • Chris Tierney (48 points, -22, 43 Fenwick, Corsi) ($2.973 million next season, RFA)

 

Possible line combos for next season.

  • Getzlaf/Rakell/Jones (Jones might be a good net front presence to cause havoc to let Getzlaf and Rakell to their thing)
  • Terry/Silfverberg/Tierney
  • Henrique/Ritchie/Kase
  • Steel/Sherwood/Comtois

 

This would still give the Ducks 2 first round picks.  Albeit later in the first round.  But Murray seems to work his magic later.  This would also clear a ton of cap space for offseason or future trade deadlilne moves.  And gives the Ducks a legit young scorer.  Not quite elite.  But would be good for the second line.  

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