Trout and then what?

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Also, Fletcher is not a 4-5 WAR SS. Simmons bat has definitely been an asset, but his defense is so elite, that it gives him a huge bump. Fletcher's 2 WAR in 2018 was misleading, I think, he's probably getting a huge bump defensively for his work at multiple positions.

Fletcher would have to arguably equal Zack Cozarts 2017, because Cozart was likely the best SS defensively in the NL that year (Simmons being the best in the NL)...and had to hit to a .900+ OPS to get to 5 WAR.

If David Eckstein can pull 4-5 WAR at SS with a .732 OPS, I think Fletcher can come pretty close. 

Cozart might be good defensively but there’s still a light year between him and Simmons. I think Cozart’s defense has been a bit over-stated.

I do agree that Fletcher’s 2 WAR doesn’t automatically mean it will translate to 4 WAR in a full year either - its more of a hope that he does what he’s always done, continue to develop. He has the speed, contact skills, defense, and plate discipline already to become a valuable hitter. If he bumps the BB% a couple points, cuts K% down a couple points, steals a few more bases, focuses on doubles more - all normal things for a developing MLB hitter to do - he could become that. Maybe not consistently, but for 2-3 years in a 3-4 year span.

I think we might get lucky in a few years and get a Simmons-lite in Soto, or a passable, offense-first SS in Jackson (at least for a year or two until he moves to 3B) so Fletch would be a stopgap. 

Edited March 19, 2019 by totdprods

[Docwaukee]

Getting one really solid FA pitcher next year is an important next step in improving this team.  

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

Getting one really solid FA pitcher next year is an important next step in improving this team.  

Cole!  He’s a local guy, seems perfect.

[totdprods]

Also want to add that Fletcher’s current offensive profile will be heavily influenced by his BAbip. His BB% and K% will need to improve for him to not have his fate tied to that stat. He will have some ice cold stretches where nothing falls in, and he’ll have some red-hot stretches where everything drops or sneaks through, and that could carry over into a season - he could slap and luck his way into a .330 BA as easily as he could have a .250 BA. If luck smiled on him, he could easily post a 5+ WAR campaign. 

Edited March 19, 2019 by totdprods

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

The only outside the org major FA they should make every effort to sign over the next several years, assuming repeating his 2018 season, has to be Gerrit Cole.

Cole, Ohtani, Barria, Skaggs, Heaney, Canning, and Suarez would be a great 1 through 7 to have in 2020. 

Remember that the luxury tax threshold needle is only moved about $12 million up with Trout's 2021-2030 contract, compared to his 2015-2020 contract.   And the actual payroll is only moved up $2 million/season from Trout's 2019 and 2020 contract seasons.

Plus Pujols will be gone sooner or in 3 yrs.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Also want to add that Fletcher’s current offensive profile will be heavily influenced by his BAbip. His BB% and K% will need to improve for him to not have his fate tied to that stat. He will have some ice cold stretches where nothing falls in, and he’ll have some red-hot stretches where everything drops or sneaks through, and that could carry over into a season - he could slap and luck his way into a .330 BA as easily as he could have a .250 BA. If luck smiled on him, he could easily post a 5+ WAR campaign. 

he's a good defender at 2nd and 3rd.  Not SS where he's below average.  His future is as a util guy.  Maybe he gets himself into a position where some progress with the bat makes him a starter for a couple years.  It certainly would be a total fluke if he did pull off being a .300 hitter with a .350 obp.  

Rengifo is a better defensive SS than Fletcher but he's also avg at best (probably below).  Yet Fletcher is a better defensive 2bman than Luis although that could change over time as I think Rengifo still has more upside.  

[totdprods]

I also like what this does for the 2019 deadline. Odds are, we will be middle of the pack. Likely not frontunners, likely not at the bottom of the division. We will likely again be in that weird maybe buyer/maybe seller tier.

Eppler won’t be pressured into considering Harvey, Allen, Cahill, Lucroy, or Calhoun trades - before he had to do what was best for the org long-term even if they were fringe contenders, and now he can choose to play the hand he’s dealt and try to get to the playoffs. And conversely, it may be easier to sell guys if the team is fringe since there’s less pressure to win right now.

Or, now that we have OF locked up with Trout, Upton, and hopefully Adell for the near future, we have a ton of OF prospects we can shop for long-term assets. 

Edited March 19, 2019 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

^Alternately if the Angels are stuck in mediocrity at the deadline, it also gives him the choice to trade and semi-tank 2019, but be able to re-tool for 2020 and beyond. 

[floplag]

The long terms looks good with the path were on.  I never liked not making more short term effort but i dont think arguing the long terms makes much sense at this point 
I would try to extend Simmons next and then make some smart FA signings to fill in the org weaknesses
WE wont make much noise this year without a lot of luck but the trajectory is definitely up. 

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I also like what this does for the 2019 deadline. Odds are, we will be middle of the pack. Likely not frontunners, likely not at the bottom of the division. We will likely again be in that weird maybe buyer/maybe seller tier.

Eppler won’t be pressured into considering Harvey, Allen, Cahill, Lucroy, or Calhoun trades - before he had to do what was best for the org long-term even if they were fringe contenders, and now he can choose to play the hand he’s dealt and try to get to the playoffs. And conversely, it may be easier to sell guys if the team is fringe since there’s less pressure to win right now.

Or, now that we have OF locked up with Trout, Upton, and hopefully Adell for the near future, we have a ton of OF prospects we can shop for long-term assets. 

I feel like selling will be easier to justify if we're on the border.  If we don't seem to have a legit shot at the deadline, I would definitely sell.  Moving expiring players for much needed pitching.  

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

^Alternately if the Angels are stuck in mediocrity at the deadline, it also gives him the choice to trade and semi-tank 2019, but be able to re-tool for 2020 and beyond. 

Harvey's success could be critical for this team one way or another.  If he pitches like a front of the rotation starter it will be huge for the team in terms of their chances to win or it will be huge at the deadline in terms of trade return.  Getting a near ace level haul could add the much needed minor league pitching depth that our system is missing.  

[Warfarin]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I feel like selling will be easier to justify if we're on the border.  If we don't seem to have a legit shot at the deadline, I would definitely sell.  Moving expiring players for much needed pitching.  

Agreed.  The concern before was we couldn't truly "rebuild" in that there was a veritable concern that any rebuild would lead to Trout deciding to go elsewhere.  If we happen to be mediocre this year, I think it is a lot easier to just trade some contracts/expiring contracts for some prospects who can help us in the very near future.  Essentially, replicate what we did last deadline in trading Kinsler for Buttrey + Jerez, and Maldonado for Sandoval.  I can easily see how we could do the same this deadline with Harvey, Cahill, Allen, etc if we aren't contending.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Agreed.  The concern before was we couldn't truly "rebuild" in that there was a veritable concern that any rebuild would lead to Trout deciding to go elsewhere.  If we happen to be mediocre this year, I think it is a lot easier to just trade some contracts/expiring contracts for some prospects who can help us in the very near future.  Essentially, replicate what we did last deadline in trading Kinsler for Buttrey + Jerez, and Maldonado for Sandoval.  I can easily see how we could do the same this deadline with Harvey, Cahill, Allen, etc if we aren't contending.

I think we've been in a rebuild.  Just not tanking to do it.  Probably hasn't changed Eppler's mentality at all just making fans a little more comfortable with the plan.  

[yk9001]

Robert Redford won a senate seat and asked the same thing.

 

[Warfarin]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think we've been in a rebuild.  Just not tanking to do it.  Probably hasn't changed Eppler's mentality at all just making fans a little more comfortable with the plan.  

What's cool is the quote from Joel Sherman, saying Trout would call Eppler at times to discuss how certain minor leaguers are doing.  Certainly it shows how vested he is in the franchise on the whole.  I'm sure he's paid close attention to what Eppler has done, and the significant progress we've seen on the whole.

[Jay]

Now that Trout is locked up I feel a lot better about the future. Need pitching though. 

[Duren, Duren]

It's almost scary to think that Albert could have remained an Angel longer than Trout.

That said, the role of the manager is to get the best out of players for each game during the current season. There is no past or future. Just the next game.

So since Pujols is on the roster, how can the most value be extracted? Without dwelling on who he was and how much he has declined.

Pragmatic necessity is a managerial priority. 

Obviously there is no room for Albert as a full time, everyday player. His mobility alone is a major handicap.

But his biggest asset may be his knowledge/experience. Recognizing situational needs, understanding the pitcher/defense dynamics, and having patience at the plate.

Not the run producing machine he was for a decade, but if (a big if) as healthy as he can be at this point then he still retains some value. Reduced as it may be. And especially with a new manager, who will see him objectively without prior investment.

I think he could be useful sometimes as a platoon first baseman, taken out in late innings and more often as a part time DH/pinch hitter. 

I know in recent years his plate discipline and swing are declining, but he still can work counts deep and wait for a pitch he can handle or draw a walk. His analytic metrics aren't impressive, though by 'old school' standards ( homers/rbi which Albert clings to) they aren't terrible either. 

Pride is both a positive and negative. It may be tough for him to accept maybe 250 plate appearances. But considering age, injuries and the team future I would hope he can channel his pride into accepting a limited role and mentoring the young players. And it would be a dignified way to transition into his post playing career.

[Second Base]

The direction of the team hasn't changed.  They've never rebuilt under Arte and they still won't.  Eppler's philosophy has been to patch holes around the peripherals of the team until enough money is off the books and enough of a farm system has been built so that then they could start building around the established core.  That core is of course Trout, Simmons, Ohtani, Upton, Skaggs and Heaney.

So this year, Eppler went and signed a bunch of one year deals to keep them in contention, but also keep them open about spending in the future. 

Trout has been locked up, and I expect in the next few years, we'll see Simmons and Ohtani locked up as well.  And then guys like Adell, Thaiss, Rengifo, Jones, Marsh and Canning will all reach the majors and supplement the big league team.  And then Eppler will start spending a little more, and this will build a perpetual winner. 

I think next year, that starts with Gerrit Cole.  I mean this is what I see the 2020 lineup looking like. 

3B Rengifo, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, SS Simmons, RF Adell, 1B Thaiss, C Lucroy, 2B Jones

Cole, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Pena, Sandoval

We've got a leadoff hitter in front of Trout, we've got Adell, Jones and Thaiss at the bottom of the lineup, which far exceeds the current bottom of the order, and we have two dominant aces in Cole and Ohtani with legit mid rotation starters like Skaggs, Heaney and Canning rounding it out. 

The team is headed in the right direction. 

[bloodbrother]

I feel even more optimistic about this teams future now that the heavy lifting has been done regarding Trout and his extension. The farm has been rebuilt....we'll see a handful of guys comin up over this year and next, and the FO will likely be more aggressive in acquiring top tier talent via trade(using pieces from their improved farm) and in FA.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

What's cool is the quote from Joel Sherman, saying Trout would call Eppler at times to discuss how certain minor leaguers are doing.  Certainly it shows how vested he is in the franchise on the whole.  I'm sure he's paid close attention to what Eppler has done, and the significant progress we've seen on the whole.

That does seem like a big deal. 

Trouts always been a good teammate, too. So its cool going forward that guys like adell will already know him, more or less. 

[nate]

And then what?

Sit back and enjoy man.  This is a once in a lifetime thing we are experiencing.

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

Maybe we should consider a moratorium on these types of threads until 7am tomorrow morning.  

These threads are the AW equivalent of drunk texting.