Why is optimism so hard?

[Pancake Bear]

Optimistic realism: Hoping for the best while recognizing the limitations of the roster.

I was more optimistic last season because of Ohtani. Still, if I squint, I can see a WC team here in 2019. I like our depth, and feel like if our main rotation can put up decent innings for the first time in forever we've got as good a shot for the a WC spot as any team not named the Red Sox (I see the Yankees winning the division). 

I don't think the A's or Twins are decidedly better than the Angels. I think the Astros, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, and probably the Rays are better than the Angels. I think the Mariners and Rangers will largely suck this year. The Angels *could* be better than the Red Sox and Rays, but I wouldn't bet even money on it. I think the A's drop, and I'm skeptical the Twins are that good - although, we'll see soon enough. 

 

[fan_since79]

I think the darkest mood I ever experienced as an Angels fan was after we lost our 14th game of the 2002 season (against six wins). It was an excruciating loss in Seattle, 1-0. We left the tying run on third base a couple times in the late innings, including the ninth. Seattle's run scored on a throwing error. The team fell 10.5 behind first, in April!

I was so mad after that game, all I could think of was "Fire Scioscia." Especially after the horrible 2001 season.

Then, miraculously, we won 21 of the next 24 games, and the World Series.

[jangel7]

Career years from a few guys plus good health is always possible. So spring always brings Optimism for me. 50 years of watching this team has brought enough surprises and great moments that I can't help but overhype and dream of what could be each and every spring. Most years it fades by the All Star break, but I just can't help but be excited once again .

[Hubs]

Just remember 02 was 6-14 to start the season.

 

[fan_since79]

2 minutes ago, jangel7 said:

Career years from a few guys plus good health is always possible. So spring always brings Optimism for me. 50 years of watching this team has brought enough surprises and great moments that I can't help but overhype and dream of what could be each and every spring. Most years it fades by the All Star break, but I just can't help but be excited once again .

That's my mood too in the spring. First week or two of the season, fresh and exciting. Then (usually) come the injuries and teams like Houston passing us by.

I hope we can hold our own through April and May. That will really help my optimism for 2019.

[Hubs]

17 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Optimistic realism: Hoping for the best while recognizing the limitations of the roster.

I was more optimistic last season because of Ohtani. Still, if I squint, I can see a WC team here in 2019. I like our depth, and feel like if our main rotation can put up decent innings for the first time in forever we've got as good a shot for the a WC spot as any team not named the Red Sox (I see the Yankees winning the division). 

I don't think the A's or Twins are decidedly better than the Angels. I think the Astros, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, and probably the Rays are better than the Angels. I think the Mariners and Rangers will largely suck this year. The Angels *could* be better than the Red Sox and Rays, but I wouldn't bet even money on it. I think the A's drop, and I'm skeptical the Twins are that good - although, we'll see soon enough. 

 

For me this is the key. I look at the entire AL, and I don't see a front runner without questions. The Red Sox didn't get better, they arguably are worse, but still have a formidable offense and pitching staff. The Yankees got better? I suppose, but did they get a lot better? Is their rotation better? No. The Rays are better with Morton on their staff, but they also gave up Cron, who fueled their offense in 2018. The Orioles and Blue Jays are not expected to be contenders.

The Indians arguably got worse. The Twins might be better?? The White Sox, Royals, and Tigers are all not contenders.

The Rangers could be better, the Angels should be better, the A's surprised last year, and could be similar, or they could be much worse, and the Mariners totally reconfigured their team. The Astros lost 3/5 of their rotation, replaced Marwin Gonzalez with no one. Michael Brantley is hardly ever healthy. They have offense and rotation questions.

ZIPS has them having the 2nd most wins behind the Yankees, but I see them similar to the Dodgers of 2018, actually winning far less games than projected, and being in a division race with the Angels and A's in September.

 

[Troll Daddy]

If we’re talking playoffs ... then Vegas gives the Angels 20% chance at making the playoffs. I think most of us are very optimistic the team will end the season with a winning record. 

Either way I’m very excited to be watching the team play this season. 

Go Angel Baseball! 

[floplag]

Some people are simply more realistic and less hopeful.  That doesnt make them negative or miserable it simple makes them more pragmatic and unwilling to assume the "with a little lucks" until they actually happen especially after how many years of them not.
For others its a protection mechanism, team has let them down so many times they are reserving judgment. 
I dont think even the most optimistic of us are predicting a playoff run without a lot of help.  I for one am hopeful that the team exceeds expectations.
 

[Taylor]

I used to be hyper negative about the Angels when I was a teen, into my early 20s. Since then, I've decided to be more optimistic and not allow my emotions to get too tied up into the team when they're losing. It's really not that hard to do.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Just remember 02 was 6-14 to start the season.

 

I appreciate the sentiment but I cringe every time someone brings this up. 

It's forever going to be a thing in Angels lore. Every time they get off to a bad start someone mentions it and I want to badly punch Adam in the nuts.

[eaterfan]

I don't know where I fall on this spectrum. I am hopeful for the team, but I'm not expecting much. I think it's important to be realistic with regards to expectations. If you think this team will win 93 games and they win 82 it means something went very wrong and people should probably be losing their jobs. If this team is realistically built to win 82 games and they do it then things went according to plan and the team is headed in the right direction.

[Ray McKigney]

I'm always optimistic at the beginning of the season. Barring a lot of serious injuries, I think the team can make the playoffs.  

[ScottT]

Realistically, how many AL  teams seem have a reasonable shot at the playoffs?  Eight?   Two teams the Angels play a lot... Oakland and Seattle...  are likely going to be worse.  I guess Texas could be better... hard to be worse.  You never know how team vs team match ups are going to go, but the division situation might help.  Then again, Minnesota' and/or Cleveland could be helped more.  

[eaterfan]

9 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Realistically, how many AL  teams seem have a reasonable shot at the playoffs?  Eight?   Two teams the Angels play a lot... Oakland and Seattle...  are likely going to be worse.  I guess Texas could be better... hard to be worse.  You never know how team vs team match ups are going to go, but the division situation might help.  Then again, Minnesota' and/or Cleveland could be helped more.  

Wasn't Oakland like 17 games better than us last year? Maybe they are worse than last year, but they can be a lot worse and still be better than us. 

I still think making the playoffs is possible, but I don't think it should be the expectation.

[WeatherWonk]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

For me this is the key. I look at the entire AL, and I don't see a front runner without questions. The Red Sox didn't get better, they arguably are worse, but still have a formidable offense and pitching staff. The Yankees got better? I suppose, but did they get a lot better? Is their rotation better? No. The Rays are better with Morton on their staff, but they also gave up Cron, who fueled their offense in 2018. The Orioles and Blue Jays are not expected to be contenders.

The Indians arguably got worse. The Twins might be better?? The White Sox, Royals, and Tigers are all not contenders.

The Rangers could be better, the Angels should be better, the A's surprised last year, and could be similar, or they could be much worse, and the Mariners totally reconfigured their team. The Astros lost 3/5 of their rotation, replaced Marwin Gonzalez with no one. Michael Brantley is hardly ever healthy. They have offense and rotation questions.

ZIPS has them having the 2nd most wins behind the Yankees, but I see them similar to the Dodgers of 2018, actually winning far less games than projected, and being in a division race with the Angels and A's in September.

 

So, you have all these gut feelings about teams that won ~ 100 games being worse this year...........yet you ignore a more scientific prediction like ZIPS. And the Angels "should" be better?

The difference between the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros (and maybe the Indians) and us is that if they have injuries or a player or two go into a funk, they have the depth to continue to win. If we have injuries or a funk, we are toast. To me, it feels like another season where literally everything has to go right, for us to contend for a WC slot. 

BTW, looks like the Yanks are signing Gio Gonzalez, too. Their rotation is definitely better this year, assuming Severino comes back. Not that their rotation needs to be much better. That bullpen is probably the best in baseball, even losing Robertson. The Yankees are for real. 

[2112]

3 hours ago, floplag said:

Some people are simply more realistic and less hopeful.  
 

Nah, I disagree.  There are some that will always be negative,  and will miraculously be positive if the team starts winning.  

I became an Angels fan with "Tanana and Ryan and a whole lot of cryin'"

Lots of, well putrid teams over the years, but I will root for them to win every game.  

[Docwaukee]

I tend not to think in terms of 'all or nothing' or extremes.  Like 'we suck' or 'we're the best'.  My analytical brain gives me some choices and assigns a likelihood of each.  I tend to focus on the positive options if not on the most obvious choice.  Not sure that makes me optimistic as much as it does hopeful.  

Like this years team.  I am not overwhelmed with confidence that they'll achieve best case or even somewhere between best case and most likely.  But I think that's a reasonable place to be even if it's not as realistic as being worse than that.  But the realistic crappy options are in there too and because I'm aware of the fact that they could happen, it's not a surprise to me if they do.  Maybe it'll make me a little bummed but for me it's not hard to deal with negative outcomes on things like baseball for two reasons.  One, I can't control it and two, it's baseball.  Hope for the best and if it doesn't work out oh well.   I love the game but sometimes it almost doesn't seem necessary trying to manage my expectation in case I'm disappointed because how disappointed should I really get.  

That's not to say I don't get invested in various games from time to time or feel the need to rant and rave.  It happens.  

 so F**k it!  Let's pitch!

[Stradling]

41 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

So, you have all these gut feelings about teams that won ~ 100 games being worse this year...........yet you ignore a more scientific prediction like ZIPS. And the Angels "should" be better?

The difference between the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros (and maybe the Indians) and us is that if they have injuries or a player or two go into a funk, they have the depth to continue to win. If we have injuries or a funk, we are toast. To me, it feels like another season where literally everything has to go right, for us to contend for a WC slot. 

BTW, looks like the Yanks are signing Gio Gonzalez, too. Their rotation is definitely better this year, assuming Severino comes back. Not that their rotation needs to be much better. That bullpen is probably the best in baseball, even losing Robertson. The Yankees are for real. 

I disagree with the bolded part.  Last year everything went wrong and we won 80 games.  If we have a mostly healthy season where we don’t lose all five of our starting five we could win 84-86 games.  Also there is reason to believe that if the team is in the hunt they can improve at the deadline.  

[WeatherWonk]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I disagree with the bolded part.  Last year everything went wrong and we won 80 games.  If we have a mostly healthy season where we don’t lose all five of our starting five we could win 84-86 games.  Also there is reason to believe that if the team is in the hunt they can improve at the deadline.  

All good points, Strad. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

All good points, Strad. 

Not to mention the A’s and Mariners are worse.  The Astros may not be worse, because they will probably be healthy, but they lost 3/5ths of their rotation in Morton, McCullers and Keuchel, so you don’t have to squint too hard to imagine them being worse.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Not to mention the A’s and Mariners are worse.  The Astros may not be worse, because they will probably be healthy, but they lost 3/5ths of their rotation in Morton, McCullers and Keuchel, so you don’t have to squint too hard to imagine them being worse.  

and not that I'd wish for it for anyone, but one injury to either Verlander or Cole and they're in a pretty tough spot.  At some point it's realistic to think a 36 yo pitcher like Verlander isn't going to be what he was the previous year.  

A bunch of options are possible.  some are more realistic than others, but it seems pretty reasonable to focus on the positive ones while acknowledging all of them.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and not that I'd wish for it for anyone, but one injury to either Verlander or Cole and they're in a pretty tough spot.  At some point it's realistic to think a 36 yo pitcher like Verlander isn't going to be what he was the previous year.  

A bunch of options are possible.  some are more realistic than others, but it seems pretty reasonable to focus on the positive ones while acknowledging all of them.  

One of my biggest issues with people that are pessimistic about their favorite team is they always seem to assume the moves the competition made will work out well, that those teams are incapable of making mistakes. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

Just remember 02 was 6-14 to start the season.

 

Last season we were 16-8 to start the season...

[Jeff Fletcher]

Pick a team that you expect to be better than the Angels and go read one of their message boards. I bet their fans are also worried about all kinds of things. 

[WeatherWonk]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and not that I'd wish for it for anyone, but one injury to either Verlander or Cole and they're in a pretty tough spot.  At some point it's realistic to think a 36 yo pitcher like Verlander isn't going to be what he was the previous year.  

A bunch of options are possible.  some are more realistic than others, but it seems pretty reasonable to focus on the positive ones while acknowledging all of them.  

OK, so what if Harvey or Cahill or Skaggs go down? Probably better odds of that happening, given their history. Talk about a tough spot. Then what? Tropeano? Canning? Suarez to the rescue?

I like the potential of the Astros young hurlers even more than ours. But they are largely unproven.

And they had a few players who had worse seasons than 2017 (Correa, Altuve) who probably will bounce back. They got very little from the DH spot and they now have Brantley playing many games there. Brantley will also absorb some of Marwin's 73 games in LF. I think Brantley will hit better than Marwin's .247 avg and more than 16 HRs there. They also got nothing from their catchers..........and might not again. That lineup can afford a few off slots. I also like Kemp or Springer as superior to any leadoff hitter we have. ARE WE STILL HOPING THAT CALHOUN OR COZART ARE THE ANSWER IN FRONT OF TROUT? 

But I've grown tired of all the predictive posts. You think the Astros are vulnerable, I really don't think so. Nor do most of the writers and systems that have generated predictions. But much stranger things have happened.

It's time to play ball!!