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Howie Kendrick's line: .311/.342/.475/.817


nate

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Who would you rather have?

 

I would take someone who puts up the same or even slightly worse numbers, but doesn't make the bone-headed plays (btw I feel the same about Aybar).  Howie is that guy who watches the pitcher throw 8 straight balls before him, and then swings at the first pitch.  And strikes out on the exact same pitch over and over again.  He just has a low baseball IQ in my opinion and is incredibly frustrating.  (when i say 'hate' i say it mostly in jest - of course I don't actually hate the man.  I've never met him and by all accounts he seems like a good dude.)

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Howie has quietly been the Angels' 2nd or 3rd best player this year - behind Trout, Bourjos before he got injured, and maybe Trumbo. I expect that by the end of the year Pujols and hopefully Hamilton will also surpass him, but he's been a pleasant surprise.

 

As for the forum disappointment, let's not be too hard on ourselves about it. Its hard not to be disappointed with a career line of .293/.329/.430 from someone who hit .360/.403/.569 in the minors. Yes, those are his actual career minor league numbers - and pretty consistent across all levels (he hit .342 in AA and .355 in AAA). Howie is, in some ways, the poster boy for what is wrong with the organization's player development, in particular the lack of focus on plate discipline.

 

More like he's the poster boy for batting average driven prospects.  

 

Batting averages in the minors are highly dependent on various factors most of which fans typically dismiss.  Defenses and lighting conditions are abysmal when compared to MLB, and guys like Howie tend to take advantage of it.  That's not a knock on him, it's just that middling defenses and bad lighting tend to make for more balls falling in.

 

Russ Davis was a Gold Glove winner in the minors, anyone that saw him play is likely doubled over laughing at the idea.  But the vast uptick in defensive ability plays a huge factor into why Howie Kendrick goes from minor league batting champion to MLB DP king.

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I love seeing this version of Howie. 

 

But it's not expectations that disapointed me about him.   It was the up and down from one season to the next, and if this is when he finally becomes consistent enough, it sure took a while.

Other than the 2nd half of 2009 and all of 2011, his OPS has generally been low 700s. 

 

 

His career OPS is 759.  He's posted an OPS over .750 in 5 of his 7 seasons with at least 300 at bats -- and maybe more importantly, his .725 OPS last year translated into a 105 OPS+

 

The post PED world has turned the 750 OPS into the new 850 OPS.

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inside pitch, that's a good analysis. howie was a proific hitter in the minors, and many figured he would be a perrenial batting champion in the MLB. the fact that he hasn't come close to winning mulitple batting titles has probably worked against him more than anything else.

 

he's a quality player who has moments of being a stud, and moments of being a dud. stay away from all the GIDPs of last year, and more people would be on his side.

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Kendrick's WAR compared to his win probabiltiy for the last few years:

 

WAR/ WPA

 

2010: 1.8 / 0.34

2011: 5.6 / 0.66 

2012: 3.0 / -2.25

 

2013: 1.0 / 0.26 so far (before the start of this game) 

 

Now, here's a player that Fangraphs WAR considers roughly equivalent to Howie Kendrick the last two years:

 

2011: 5.8 / 4.63

2012: 2.9 / 3.39

 

Notice how this mystery player contributed to 8 wins according to WPA, instead of -1.6 wins over the last 2 years, yet have the same WAR. WPA in my experience tends to agree better with what I actually see in the game. 

 

Jered Weaver > Howie Kendrick

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I've always liked Howie as a player. His plate discipline has always been terrible. This is a problem for every player in the Angels farm system back when the organization beloved "walks were a false stat." The one player who had power and plate discipline the manager disposed of thinking his salary needed to expunged from the books.

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